The Election, The Coming Pain, and the Opportunity

Some of you know that I blog elsewhere in a blatantly biased political fashion.  I try (but don't always succeed) to keep it down the middle here.  Some things to think about in last night's results.

The losses of Gene Taylor and Ike Skelton will make some navalists nervous.  I'll miss Skelton, as I always considered him to be a thoughtful and insightful legislator.  Mr. Taylor however, has been a mixed blessing to the Navy over the years, and I don't think his departure will turn out to be a bad thing.

What does the election of a majority Republican Congress mean for navalists?  Pain.  And here's why.

The Republican majority in the House was put there by an electorate that wishes to see government restrain its spending.  Democrats--when in power--have a difficult time cutting defense without looking "soft", while Republicans seem to have no such handicap.  When all is said and done, the new Republican majority will want to GET THINGS DONE, and to them, that means budget cutting.  Defense spending will be on the table, as they will need to offer the more moderate Senate evidence that their cuts aren't exclusively going to be borne by domestic and social programs.  Trades in defense will be made in order to achieve cuts in other programs, including entitlements.

The Department of Defense, unable to objectively assess the relation of grand strategy to resource allocation, will respond with horizontal cuts across the services, and the Navy will suffer its "share" of pain.  We will, as I've said before, move toward a military that does essentially the same things, except in fewer places, less often and less well.

But there is an opportunity here, and I hope the Congress and the Administration seize it.  There is an opportunity to fundamentally reassess the DoD budget in a way that looks forward, not backward.  It is an opportunity to address the challenges of a rising China and our commitment to existing security balances in East Asia.  We cannot talk out of both sides of our mouths anymore, waving the "winning the wars we're in" flag as we actively discuss withdrawal timetables.  A dramatically decreased defense budget (which I believe is coming) MUST be seen as the driver for thinking differently about how our military power will best serve the strategic ends of the Republic.  Will it be used to extend and sustain our position in the global system, or will it be misused in a misguided effort to play Whackamole against the world's endless insurgencies, sapping our strength as our strategic competitors gain in theirs? 

I urge the House Armed Services Committee to begin a round of hearings to assess the status of our strategy/resources match, in a manner that leaves open the possibility of  fundamental re-alignment.   The HASC and the Administration should embrace "creative tension" in order to determine how best to protect, preserve and extend American leadership in a changing world, and the value and logic of equal or near equal shares of the budget pie to each of the Services should be on the table from Day 1. 

Like the wise man in the Pentagon once told me, when you run out of money, it is time to think.


Bryan McGrath