Tuesday, November 30, 2024

US Deploys Carrier Strike Group, US Air Force to Western Pacific

It is either remarkable planning or interesting timing, perhaps both, that the US Navy deploys the Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group to the Western Pacific on Tuesday. I tend to believe the ship was planned to deploy after Thanksgiving, but when I look at the details of the deployment schedule I also tend to believe this looks like a surge deployment a few weeks early.

What I find interesting is how this, as reported by Navy Times, is very unusual:
The three surface ships will depart Naval Station San Diego on Tuesday and join Vinson for a Composite Training Unit Exercise, or COMPTUEX, off the Southern California coast before heading west, Hicks said.
To give you an example how unusual it is for an aircraft carrier to put to sea, conduct COMPTUEX, and deploy all in a single motion I cannot find an example of this actually happening since the Navy deployed carriers bound for the Iraq War in 2003. Wikipedia actually has a fairly decent description of COMPUTEX:
COMPTUEX, or Composite Training Unit Exercise, is a rehearsal each US Navy Carrier Battle Group performs before departing for deployment. COMPUTEX is normally conducted during a two-week to three-week period six to eight weeks before deployment. Successfully completion of COMTPUEX certifies the carrier and its air wing as qualified for open ocean operations. COMPTUEX consists of an 18 day schedule of even driven exercise which the follows with an 3 day Final Battle Problem. It's conducted and directed by the training carrier group commander and the focus is to bring together the carrier and it's air wing as a working team that can operate in a combat environment, as well as integrating with other assets of the battle group.
When you think about it, what is being implied, but not explicitly stated, is that the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) and escorts will be conducting their rehearsals in transit in the general direction of North Korea.

Let me just say - if we are thinking strategically, I really like this plan. There is no guarantee we are thinking strategically.

The Chess Match

In case you have not seen it, the situation in South Korea took an interesting twist on Monday with a public address by South Korean President Lee Myung-bak. Two items stuck out in the speech worth considering. The first is a message to the international community regarding the current mood in the South Korean government regarding the last decade of 'all carrot, no stick' diplomacy.
"For the past two decades, we’ve made efforts to resolve the nuclear issue through dialogue and cooperation. But the reality is that North Korea doesn’t stop provocative acts and is still developing nuclear weapons."

Lee hinted at adopting a tougher stance on Pyongyang, saying he will work closely with the international community to seek punitive action against its behavior.

"It’s time to act, rather than speak," he said.
And then the President set expectations for China.
"Only a few meters away from where shells landed, there was a school where classes were going on. I am outraged by the ruthlessness of the North Korean regime, which is indifferent to the lives of little children."

The address came one day after China proposed urgent talks among nuclear envoys from the six nations engaged in the stalled denuclearization dialogue to discuss the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

Seoul made it clear that it was meaningless to resume the talks without addressing North Korea’s belligerent acts.

"The first thing to do is to hold North Korea responsible for its recent attacks and secure its commitment to maintaining peace," said senior presidential secretary for public relations Hong Sang-pyo.
The crazy dictator act by North Korea no longer appears tolerable, and likely for good reason. For at least the last decade efforts have repeatedly approached North Korea with an all carrot, no stick diplomatic effort, as that has been the standing US policy during military activities in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. What I see happening here is a bit of movement in the direction that says North Korea may need to relearn a few lessons regarding the ability of South Korea and the United States to damage North Korea. Is it a risky move? Absolutely, but no less risky than the moves the North Korean regime has been making in overt military actions against South Korea for domestic political purposes.

With the ball firmly placed in China's court, we see the next bounce.
Chairman of North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly Choe Thae Bok arrived from Pyongyang, breezing past reporters at Beijing's Capital Airport without comment.

Choe, who concurrently serves as a ruling Workers' Party secretary, was expected to meet top Chinese communist party officials and discuss last week's artillery barrage, the North's nuclear program and the U.S.-South Korean military drills, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported.

Choe leaves on Saturday, suggesting that if China doesn't come out in support of North Korea tomorrow, then China won't make a statement about the situation on the Korean Peninsula until Saturday. Ignoring the suggestions coming out as a result of Wikileaks, this is an enormously complicated problem for China and represents a turning point - one way or the other.

The rest of the news headlines today provides enough backdrop to understand how tensions are rising:

North Korea vows to step up uranium enrichment amid rising concerns
South Korean military to toughen rules of engagement with North Korea

Are We Thinking Strategically?

Whether by sheer luck or incredible planning, the deployment of the Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group comes at a remarkable time. The USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), which transited from the east coast to the west coast earlier this year, oh with an important stop in Haiti if you recall, is making her first major overseas deployment since her 3 year nuclear refueling and significant systems upgrade. As nuclear powered aircraft carriers go, she is one of the most modern and prepared in the US inventory. Escorting the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) is the also recently upgraded and super modernized USS Bunker Hill (CG 52), which might be the most modernized and powerful surface combatant on the planet today, plus the USS Stockdale (DDG 106) and USS Gridley (DDG 101) who combined have only been commissioned for 5 years and 1 month.

If there was ever such a thing as a United States Carrier Strike Group with a new car smell, this is it! I suspect this force will be picking up a BMD capable ship as it passes Pearl Harbor (USS Paul Hamilton (DDG 60) maybe?).

So if I am some North Korean intel analyst looking at this - what am I looking at?

I see this rather enormous George Washington (CVN 73) Carrier Strike Group escorted by a rather large and capable number of US and South Korean Navy warships exercising in my front lawn. I am also observing this ultra modern Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group deploying from the US west coast, heading my way under what looks to be a completely unique deployment schedule that just might be coming quickly specifically because of me.

Oh btw, more than half the Japanese fleet is either at sea or on high readiness, and the US Air Force is quietly positioning capabilities that will really hurt if the shooting happens. In the context of the South Korean Presidents speech, I might be a little concerned.

As I look at this, I see an opportunity for the US and allies to increase the pressure and make moves that put a bit of fear back into the North Koreans for a change. I do not think it would be a bad thing for the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) to go dark and start heading towards the strait. I can think of some interesting places for that Carrier Strike Group to pop up all of a sudden to make a strategic announcement of presence. It seems to me that the more pressure the North Koreans feel right now, the more China is empowered in influencing North Korea. China has let editorials critical of North Korea run in the daily papers all week - something we never saw following the Cheonan incident.

There is an opportunity here - one that makes China a partner while also allowing us to stand strong with South Korea. How does it come together? I see many possibilities, and if I was writing the script I would start writing it with this deployment of the Carl Vinson CSG - with its unique ships and unique deployment pattern, and perhaps a bit of unique strategic communication to go a long with it aimed at the North Koreans.

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