Why China Might Be Right About India

I've been thinking about some commentary I've been reading regarding the way China and India view each other. I wouldn't call this a Chinese Proverb per se, but there is a viewpoint in China that India isn't a very mature nation because they lack maturity in governance. Some might say that is like the pot calling the kettle black - and some might be right.

One of the more interesting arguments I have read for increased PLA Navy presence in the Indian Ocean is the argument India has such a high threshold for action that they won't police their own front lawn (The Indian Ocean).

I might be starting to believe that argument, and I'll give an example. That reported hijacking of MV Hannibal II took place along a major sea lane between Mumbai and the Suez canal, somewhere around 530 nautical miles from Mumbai. There have been attacks in the same area a few other times this year. See image below.

This isn't just any city in the world, we are talking about Mumbai - the fifth largest municipality in the world. In the 2007-2008 shipping year, the Port of Mumbai handled a total of over 57 million tons of cargo, including 32.4 million tons of imports and 24.7 million tons of exports. The Port of Mumbai handled 1.4 million tons of containerized cargo in 117.6 thousand TEUs. The Port of Mumbai is also the gateway for more than half of India's sea-going passengers.

I think about piracy so near India and ask myself, what would any supposed major military power other than India do? Seriously, India has the worlds 4th largest Navy and even when considering the most optimistic Navy plans for every nation, India will operate more aircraft carriers than any nation besides the United States, will operate the third largest submarine force, and operate the fourth largest surface combatant force compared to every other Navy in the world by 2020.

But pirates can operate motherships and hijack vessels in late 2010 only 530 nautical miles off one of India's busiest ports? Apparently - YES.

Think about it like this. How many attacks, nevermind hijackings, would the United States tolerate from pirates 530 nautical miles off New York City in the main transit lane to London?

Can anyone imagine a single pirate attack, much less hijacking, being tolerated beyond a single time on a major sea lane 530nm from any major European, South American, Russian, Chinese, Japanese, or South Korean port? When the ARCTIC SEA was reportedly hijacked in 2009 near France, it was considered such a major international incident that NATO got involved - and ultimately half the deployed Russian surface Navy at the time was deployed to take care of it.

When China starts sending 4 surface combatants to protect commerce in the Indian Ocean instead of two, the only people the Indian government can blame is themselves. The Indian government threshold for caring about maritime security in their sphere of influence does not appear to be significantly greater than China's threshold when it comes to piracy - and may actually be lower in the future.

We Americans may think of it as "just piracy" but it also isn't our commerce. The irony here is that India is heavily dependent upon the maritime industry - Indians make up a huge percentage of the total global sea merchant workforce and their are some rather impressive mariner unions in India - but it doesn't seem to matter. It is European and Asian commerce and both the European and Asian Navies operate a rather large number of ships compared to India. With the problem not slowing down any in 2010, and this imagery is the record, I suspect the size of the international force will grow even larger next year.

Complaining China is being too aggressive in India's sphere of influence sounds hollow to me when India refuses to commit the resources necessary to keep the trash off their own lawn. No other major power in the world tolerates maritime insecurity like piracy within their major sea trade lanes. While India may desire to own the naval equipment of a major power, their inability to exercise the use of naval equipment like a major power leaves me thinking China is exactly right to be concerned - and exactly right to be thinking about how they will have to project power into the Indian Ocean in the future.