Wednesday, December 15, 2024

Gulf of Guinea Open Source Insurgency Update

I’m back… And so is MEND, with new systems disruption attacks against Nigeria’s oil infrastructure. These attacks are taking a toll on petroleum production and distribution in the Delta.

Like any innovative organization, insurgent groups and terrorists constantly adapt and emulate success of partners and competitors. The Niger Delta Liberation Force recently blew up pipelines similar to earlier MEND attacks. A splinter pirate group of Cameroon’s Bakassi Freedom Fighters, the Africa Marine Commandos, has blended the tactics of MEND and the Somali pirates, but stepped up the level violence.

If oil prices continue to climb and these attacks grow in scope and effect, it will be interesting to see if the US chooses to facilitate action against these networks. One can only hope any steps taken to mitigate the threat will be more effective than the lackluster counter-piracy campaign on the other side of Africa (successful attacks and the value of ransoms are higher than in previous years despite significant coalition presence). The unabated expansion of criminal-insurgent-terrorist groups who exploit the sea for their ends should not surprise to anyone who has watched Somali pirates run circles around dozens of first world navies with impunity the past couple years.

A recent article by Dr. Donna Nincic of the California Maritime Academy discusses this specific threat to energy security.

The opinions and views expressed in this post are those of the author alone and are presented in his personal capacity. They do not necessarily represent the views of U.S. Department of Defense, the US Navy, or any other agency.

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