Russia’s new naval doctrine, as shown by its plans for shipbuilding over the next decade, is not directed against the United States and the West as was the Soviet Union’s but rather is intended in the first instance to protect its economic interests on the continental shelf and to ensure that the sea lanes for delivering oil and gas remain open.The main point here is critical to understanding what is taking place in Russia in 2010 - it really isn't about us anymore. Dmitry Gorenburg has an interesting analysis up regarding the shifting view Russia is taking as it looks at the rest of the world, and where exactly Russia fits in the 21st century. What I find interesting is how Russia looks to their West, South, and East and finds Russia to be the best opportunity for everyone - and that opportunity for everyone else is also Russia's opportunity. It is a very optimistic view, but it makes sense if one no longer believes the power in the world will reside in North America - rather Europe and Asia will dominate the 21st century.
More and more details are coming out about Russia’s new naval doctrine, one that will redirect that country’s efforts away from the geo-political challenges of the past to the geo-economic ones of the future but that sets the stage in particular places for serious naval competitions involving the rising naval power of China, Japan and India.
The editors of the military affairs site, “Voennoye obozreniye,” surveyed leading Russian military experts about how they see Russia’s naval policy developing over the next decade. The experts identified four “main directions” in a plan that calls for adding 36 submarines and 40 surface ships.
What I find interesting is how this is driving Russia's defense choices. A few years ago Russia was proclaiming themselves to be a future rising naval power, but with the recent carrier announcement that would not appear to be the case. Well, it is very unclear actually, because the western press is stating that Russia is choosing not to buy aircraft carriers because Russia can't afford it. That does appear true, but does not appear to be the whole truth. For example, the Russian defense budget wasn't necessarily reduced, indeed the money originally intended to buy aircraft carriers never went away - instead it appears reality sunk in.
First, Russia's shipbuilding industry is still too far behind to build aircraft carriers efficiently, the deal with India has proven that. If money isn't the real reason, but industrial capability and capability is, then it follows Russia would seek a way to build up the shipbuilding industry before venturing into aircraft carrier construction. That is probably why Russia has fast tracked the Mistral deal with France, which has gone from virtually nothing to almost a full blown contract in just over a year. Money isn't an issue with Mistral, and more importantly the upgrade to the industry is a necessary first step if Russia ever does want to build aircraft carriers in the future.
What has happened though is money has been shifted back towards the Army. The Russian Army has been going through a very painful and very expensive modernization - a transition intended to make the Army more expeditionary. Clearly the Mistral deal fits in with that objective, but the cost for modernization of the Army has been very high to date. Only with the extra money can the transition stay on track, and it looks like the extra money is coming out of the budget intended for aircraft carriers.
What we still haven't heard about is the plan for surface combatants. I know it was reported in July that Russia intends to modernize and return to service the cruisers Admiral Nakhimov, Admiral Lazarev, and Admiral Ushakov, but I still say that is very unlikely and to me - even more unbelievable than new aircraft carriers in 2020. A November 2010 press report indicated there was insufficient funding for the Sevmash shipyard to modernize the Admiral Nakhimov - and from what I have seen the Navy budget seems smaller. I have not seen details regarding what Russia plans the 40 surface combatant force to look like, but I suspect any new construction will mostly be frigates for the next several years, not destroyers or cruisers.
What does seem to have budget priority is Russia's submarine force. I've seen several estimates thrown around, the most common being a force of 8 SSBNs, 8 SSNs, 4 SSGNs, and 16 SSKs for a total of 36 submarines. Of all the naval vessels discussed in detail so far, the submarine force describes seems the most realistic. The Borei class continues to get substantial priority with funding which highlights Russia's priority on rebuilding their underwater nuclear deterrent, even though to date there is no question there has been enormous cost overruns fielding an effective submarine launched nuclear ballistic missile. The first Yasen class attack submarine is expected to be turned over to the Russian Navy next year, and at least 1 more is currently under construction with at least 5 more planned after that (including one expected to begin construction next year). The Lada class SSK is another example where there appears to be good funding, with the first complete and at least 2 under construction. 8 Lada class submarines are currently planned. Also noteworthy is 3 Kilo class submarines under construction for the Black Sea Fleet.
With a well funded submarine force, a few Misteal class LPDs, and what looks like a shift towards more frigates than cruisers, destroyers, or even aircraft carriers - the question is whether or not this force really is developed with the new doctrine in mind?
The answer appears to be - yes. The submarines will undoubtably be necessary for Arctic operations, not to mention projecting power globally with nuclear attack submarines. With economics on the mind of the Russian, submarines make a good investment due to the vast resources available offshore to Russia. While at first look it may look like Russia's Navy is suffering from contraction, to me it appears more similar to consolidation towards regional logistics centers. Will Russia seek overseas bases, and if so - where? I suspect Russia will try to make deals leaving the question whether anyone will actually make a deal with Russia.
BTW, this little tidbit in the Eurasia Review article was interesting.
In the course of the ongoing discussion of Russia’s naval operations, one extremely curious detail emerged. Russian commanders are now using Tatars to communicate among naval operators to ensure that the Japanese and the Americans do not understand Russian intentions just as the US used Navaho speakers during World War II.I do wonder how effectively this would be against China.
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