The situation in Egypt has been an interesting case study in the limits of American power and influence. We may wish it, but that doesn't make it so--whether you are on the side of Mubarak and stability, or the protesters and change. Egypt's future is largely in the hands of Egyptians. Tom Friedman has a decent overview of things in this morning's NYT, a piece that tangentially brings up the importance of a subject not highlighted in press accounts--the importance of military to military relationships in crisis management.
We hear much of the role of the Egyptian Army as guarantors of the state, and much of the Egypt-watching centers around "which way" the Army will go. To the extent that we know this at all, we must rely on a web of interpersonal relationships forged between Egyptian military officers and US military officers over the course of decades long careers. Some of these relationships start in service academy exchange programs, they continue to deepen with bi-lateral exercises and other operational exchanges, often War College friendships are forged--whatever the process, the products are friendships at the personal level that lend insight into institutional biases.
Those who would have us pull back from the world in order to practice "restraint" minimize the importance of this interlinked web of relationships to the practice of statecraft and world leadership. Those who would urge us to deftly time the use of military power in order to "re-establish" favorable security balances fail to explain upon what information such deft decisions will be made, as such networks wither from disuse and neglect.
Bryan McGrath
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