These Things Are Not Similar

The following is from Recent Developments in Space Debris Mitigation Policy and Practices (PDF) by Nicholas L. Johnson, NASA Chief Scientist for Orbital Debris in 2006.

Following the establishment in 1995 of detailed space debris mitigation guidelines for all NASA space projects and programs, several additional space debris mitigation policies were developed, including by the space agencies of Japan, France, and Russia, as well as the European Space Agency. After several years of coordination with U.S. industry, the U.S. Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices were formally adopted in February 2001 and are referenced in the latest U.S. National Space Policy signed by President Bush on 31 August 2006.

In recent years, emphasis has shifted from national efforts to control the space debris population to international ones. Here, too, great progress has been made, most notably by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) and the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) of the United Nations. Today, a firm international consensus is rapidly building on the principal space debris mitigation measures.

The IADC is an association of the space agencies of ten countries (China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and the European Space Agency, representing 17 countries of which four (France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) are also full IADC members. At the 17th meeting of the IADC in October 1999, a new Action Item (AI 17.2) was adopted to develop a set of consensus space debris mitigation guidelines. The purpose of the activity was to identify the most valuable space debris mitigation measures and to reach an international agreement on common directives. The IADC Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines were formally adopted in October 2002 during the Second World Space Congress in Houston, Texas. Two years later a companion document, entitled Support to the IADC Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines, was completed to provide background and clarification for the guidelines.

The history demonstrates China played an active role in developing international guidelines for space debris going back to at least 1999.

The release of Wikileaks cables showing the discussion back and forth between the US and China following China's ASAT shootdown in January 2007 of a Chinese FY-1C weather satellite, and later in the context of the US shootdown of the USA 193 satellite is making some news. The cables, which I will not discuss here, are all very interesting to read. The analysis of those cables so far in the news has not been as interesting.

These are my thoughts on these two incidents.

The US shootdown of USA 193 may or may not have been a valid safety issue. There appears to be a global consensus that if a dangerous substance on satellites has an odds of greater than 1 in 10,000 of not burning up in reentry, it is an issue. Depending upon who you ask, the odds were both above and below 1 in 10,000 for USA 193. The cost of cleaning up a mess from USA 193 would have been high, not only in financial costs but in political costs. The costs of doing nothing about USA 193 were not very high in my opinion. Ultimately there was an opportunity, and the US took it. A few years later there is no debris left from the USA 193 shootdown in space.

I don't think the USA 193 shootdown was necessary, but I do think it was the right thing to do and has ultimately proven to be excellent for the US because the results contributed significantly to the Phased, Adaptive BMD approach focused on AEGIS BMD of the Obama administration.

In that context, the Bush administration spent less than a few hundred million on what can be described as an anti-satellite test and the Obama administration has been able to save billions in BMD as a result. In my book, that's a a good outcome. From an international perspective, when one considers that many of our closest allies are heavily invested in AEGIS, I think the reassurance in AEGIS alone is a huge boost for the United States. Executed responsibly and effectively, USA 193 has had many good outcomes. Virtually all of the detriments from the action are political, but none of them in my opinion rise to a serious level of concern - even as some are legitimate concerns.

On the other hand, the Chinese ASAT strike against the FY-1C weather satellite is the biggest disaster in the history of space exploration, and every statistic proves it. As a result of that incident China became the biggest contributing nation to low orbit space debris. There are some 2,500 major pieces of space debris that will remain in earths low orbit until at least 2030, and an additional 100,000 smaller pieces of debris that will not fall into earths atmosphere until next century.

When we compare the two incidents, they are not equal by any standard. The carelessness of China cannot be legitimately compared to the careful calculus of the United States. China didn't tell anyone about their ASAT test, but the US gave plenty of warning and time for every nation around the world to ask questions and give opinions.

The complete screw up by China in their ASAT test is monumental. The amount of debris that resulted from their little military exercise is enormous, and accounts for 45% of all the low orbit space debris around the planet. Russia and the US were in a space race for decades with what today is seen as low technology, and neither country ever approached the stupidity exercised by China. What China did was akin to detonating a nuclear weapon in their own house just to prove they have nuclear weapons. It's that colossal in stupidity.

With all the focus on this issue, I see only two serious questions. First, how in the world did China miscalculate so badly in their test? Second, how come China has never explained in detail their miscalculation? With China heavily investing in space, but with a track record of terrible environmental safety combined with being the biggest contributing nation of trash in space, the world should be demanding better answers from China.

I don't care how much trash and pollution China collects on their property, but the world should collectively demand better given China's record in space, because it is our planet too.