Coherence

Some thoughts at WPR on military professionalism and the Arab Spring:

The decision to develop a professional army able to maintain its form and coherence, therefore, is inherently risky for civilian rulers, whether autocratic or otherwise. The lack of professional forces may leave a state vulnerable and without some foreign policy tools. On the other hand, an army that exists organizationally in only a minimal sense is less likely to overthrow the government. At the time of this writing, it appears that pro-Gadhafi forces in Libya have regained the upper hand against the country's armed rebellion. These loyalist forces appear to include some elements of the uniformed armed services, including artillery and air units, but also mercenaries and other militia raised by Gadhafi. With unified command and control and some superior weaponry, these units are pushing poorly organized rebel forces back, even though the rebels include some defectors from the army. Although the situation remains precarious, Gadhafi may have remained in power because of, rather than despite, his decision not to invest in a professional army.