Libya: How Does This End?

I'm not sure anyone can answer that question at this point. However, Robert Haddick at SWJ has done a pretty good job of forecasting what will happen next. Given our involvement for nearly a decade in these types of messy IW campaigns, it's not hard to predict that once all the big guns and missiles stop shooting, the situation on the ground will devolve into a classic IW campaign. The formula for extended asymmetric warfare on both sides is in place: porous borders, vast ungoverned spaces, shifting tribal alliances, an abundance of small arms (and manpads in the case of Libya), and terrorist groups who want a piece of the action (LIFG and AQIM). Steve Metz also nails it here.

Once again, naval forces have demonstrated their flexibility adroitly during Odyssey Dawn, but I don't see much future role for them unless the NCA significantly changes the scope of US involvement. Unfortunately, we still haven't invested in the sort of capablities we need to support a prolonged IW campaign; mainly sea-based ISR.

The opinions and views expressed in this post are those of the author alone and are presented in his personal capacity. They do not necessarily represent the views of U.S. Department of Defense, the US Navy, or any other agency.