Tuesday, April 26, 2024

Fairly Obvious What He Meant By "Conditions"

I am not nor would ever claim to be an expert on Bahrain and the issues involved with the protests that are taking place there, but I think like most Americans, I understand the US response (or non-response) is based entirely on the presence of the 5th Fleet in Bahrain. I, like most Americans, am also fully aware that Saudi Arabia and UAE have sent in military and police capabilities into Bahrain to break up the protests.

Where protests in North Africa began as struggles for the rights of civilian and citizen, it has been my impression that Bahrain from the beginning has been a sectarian struggle first with a civil rights argument layered on top. I have no idea if that is true, but Iranian influence in Bahrain has been cited by many people including US government officials.

Progressive Realist has a post by Shayan Ghajar of InsideIRAN worth reading on the tensions between Iran and Bahrain. The entire article is important, but you don't need to be a rocket scientist to understand what this is saying.
One day earlier, Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, commander of the Basij militia, issued a belligerent call for more direct action towards Bahrain. Criticizing the political divisions plaguing Iran-perhaps a reference to the infighting between president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader over the Minister of Intelligence-Naqdi urged Iranians to unite against the brutal suppression of protesters in Bahrain:

“If the current conditions do not allow us to get directly involved in the battlefield, we should change the conditions and play a direct role on this scene,” Naqdi declared, according to Fars News, which is affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The brigadier general did not clarify precisely how “conditions” might be changed to facilitate direct involvement in Bahrain; however, recent events indicate there may be growing pressure within Iran to do precisely that.
What is the "condition" that needs to change in order to facilitate direct involvement by Iran?

You don't have to be an expert to know the answer is neutralize the United States presence in Bahrain, indeed as I said earlier, everyone knows that the presence of 5th fleet is why we have done nothing in Bahrain to date.

Many weeks ago when discussing the events across the Middle East with several folks, one comment in particular stood out. Someone I know and consider a very serious person told me that before the Arab wave is over, the US will be lucky if Bahrain doesn't lead to a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. At the time I discussed this possibility with a few people, like Rob and Bryan for example, but I just didn't see it.

But I don't like the comments by Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi any. In fact, it is difficult to read his comments as anything other than a threat against United States presence and interests in Bahrain.

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