General Ham Nods Towards the Marines

Libya is the most predictable real world wargame ever observed in real time. There is no way General Ham would say this unless it has been discussed with the President and Secretary of Defense.

The use of an international ground force is a possible plan to bolster the Libyan rebels, Ham said at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing.

Asked whether the U.S. would provide troops, Ham said, "I suspect there might be some consideration of that. My personal view at this point would be that that's probably not the ideal circumstance, again for the regional reaction that having American boots on the ground would entail."

President Barack Obama has said repeatedly there will be no U.S. troops on the ground in Libya, although there are reports of small CIA teams in the country.

Pressed by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., about the situation in Libya, Ham agreed that a stalemate "is now more likely" since NATO took command.

I stand by the analysis I wrote on March 22nd, as virtually everything I said then has come about. The only thing I have not seen yet that I kind of expected to see by now is the US media asking questions like, "where the hell is Cameron or Sarkozy?" It is a true lack of respect for Europe how almost everyone interviewed on cable TV describes the European military capabilities as the punchline of a joke.

I honestly would have expected the US to be pushing the media to ask questions about the European efforts for success in Libya as a way to deflect the attention away from the questions asking about what the US is or is not doing. I'm not sure why the Obama administration isn't doing that yet, but maybe it's not time yet.

If things continue to go to hell, and if tough questions don't start getting asked of Cameron or Sarkozy, Obama will take political criticism (unfairly btw). The rebels are a rag tag group of untrained, unprofessional, uneducated dudes with guns that have no chance of defeating military forces of Gaddafi. Without troops on the ground, NATO airpower will continue to be ineffective.

I am OK with that, but I am probably in the minority. As much as I hope the United States continues to do no more than what we are currently doing, I doubt Obama will keep the US on the sidelines if things continue to deteriorate.

For the record, the Bataan ARG is about 10 days out if they have been cruising at 12 knots. As I have written previously this may move towards a Marine amphibious raid scenario, because right now amphibious raids (quick shore assault, attack, and withdraw) are the precise military capability necessary to deal with the specific problems we see in places like Misrata.

And yes, I'll say it, the EFV sure would be useful in the type of amphibious raid scenario we see in Libya where we do not want under any circumstances to have US Marines on land for longer than a single day at a time. The ability to rapidly move a Marine Rifle Company to shore from sea at sunset, roll into the city, blow up enemy equipment in an urban environment (hiding by a hospital, for example), hit a FARP, attack another couple targets, then pull back out to sea before daylight... EFV sure would be useful. I am not convinced the AAVs can do that, and if you send M1A1s and LAVs, you are staying longer than a single night because you can't get them on and off the shore fast enough.