Finding Piracy’s Tipping Point

After several unproductive years of dithering in the Indian Ocean, navies and shipping companies are slowly changing their mindset towards countering piracy. Unsurprisingly, this shift has begun to produce a positive outcome. For 2011, the number of attempted Somali pirate attacks has continued to increase as in previous years; however, it appears that to date this year, the rate of successful attacks has actually begun a decline. What is contributing to this change? First, shipping companies have started to put aside their fears of liability and embraced the only foolproof deterrence against successful attacks - embarked armed security. Eaglespeak’s post here demonstrates the higher incidence of armed security defeating attacks.

Last week, Intertanko, the association of independent tanker owners, revealed a reversal in its earlier position by releasing guidelines on contracting armed security. The tanker industry had no choice but to get tough on piracy, as loaded tankers are especially susceptible to boarding due to their slower speed and low freeboards. Additionally, with the skyrocketing cost of bunkers, the four or so more days of transit that crude carriers from the Arabian Gulf use in an effort to hug the Indian coast is beginning to take a toll on profits. One of the oft-heard reasons against using armed security is that it will escalate the amount of violence in piracy. This argument holds little water as attacks by automatic weapons and RPGs, the torture, and execution of crews by pirates demonstrate the level of violence in these crimes is already quite unacceptable. Furthermore, I’ve heard industry executives mention that there are rumblings that crews might soon refuse to sail in the Indian Ocean if something isn’t done to protect them. The economic consequences of this sort of reaction couldn't be ignored by anyone, much less the shippers themselves. What additional armed security will do is force the pirates to seek out softer unarmed targets. Inevitably, other components of the shipping industry will have no choice but to tell their lawyers to pack sand and embrace this positive measure to protect their crews and cargoes.

The second factor contributing towards a tipping point in piracy is that the coalition navies have abandoned worthless catch and release tactics and increased their own level of violence. Some of the more aggressive European navies have set the standard for proactively stopping pirates, and even the USN has begrudgingly begun to see the value in killing pirates caught in the act.

In addition to more aggressive tactics on the part of navies and the shipping companies, what else needs to be done to rid the Indian Ocean of the scourge from Somali Piracy? First, we need to continue to target pirate facilitators. As I’ve noted, detaining teenage criminals and cajoling various jurisdictions into expanding their jails is ineffectual and tantamount to flushing taxpayer money down the CHT system. Finally, we should:

Disrupt and Dismantle Pirate Bases Ashore - Piracy at sea can only be abated if pirate bases ashore are disrupted or dismantled. We have obtained appropriate authority from the United Nations Security Council and agreement from Somali authorities to do so. We will work with concerned governments and international organizations to disrupt and dismantle pirate bases to the fullest extent permitted by national law.

Interestingly, this passage is an excerpt from National Security Council’s December 2008 policy on Countering Piracy Off the Horn of Africa. Granted, this document was created under a previous administration, but it’s still the most current US counter-piracy policy openly published. Lacking the will to enforce our own policies is an indicator of a disfunctional bureaucracy at best.

Although the monsoon season is about to begin, given the pirates' use of motherships, we should expect the number of attacks to not fall as severely as in previous seasons. Nevertheless, with the hardening of many targets and the realization by most involved that lawfare doesn't work, we are now presented with an opportunity to tip control of the seas in the Indian Ocean towards rule of law and away from hapless youths with AKs. Taking the fight to the pirates' leadership and sanctuary ashore is the logical next step.

The opinions and views expressed in this post are those of the author alone and are presented in his personal capacity. They do not necessarily represent the views of U.S. Department of Defense, the US Navy, or any other agency.