Sounds Real, but Doesn't Look Real Yet

OK wait... I'm confused. He said what?

Presenting a dim outlook for the future of defense spending, Gen. Raymond Odierno, head of Joint Forces Command, warned against the folly of "doing more with less" - an approach, he said, which would lead to a hollow force.

Rather, he said, "we may have to do less with less. We may have to brutally accept more risk, where in the past we reduced risk."

Less with less, and brutally accept risk... leads to what at JFCOM?

Most of its functions, however, are being retained, and about 80 percent of its personnel are being reassigned to other commands and agencies. The work is expected to be completed by March.

Odierno, a former commander of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, spoke to a lunchtime audience at a joint war-fighting conference here. The current fiscal crisis, he said, "is perhaps the greatest threat to our national security," but the situation also provides opportunities.

"Where is the opportunity in something generally regarded as an unambiguous negative?" he asked rhetorically. "The opportunity is in the chance to make decisions that we previously have been able to avoid."

Unnecessary redundancy has to be reduced, he urged. "We have to move forward toward a more joint force."

I find a great deal of irony that the General is talking about less with less, taking on greater risk, and "opportunity" in the context of the "greatest threat to our national security" when at the same time the General has overseen the retirement of JFCOM by only cutting 20% of personnel and retaining almost all the functionality in different commands. Said another way, the huge slash at JFCOM was little more than an organizational chart realignment even though it has been described as a massive budget cut.

For all the rhetoric otherwise, the military is still not taking seriously the current fiscal crisis. Most of the cuts are cosmetic and organizational, and can be described as going on a diet by cutting out fogra for dinner every night verse getting on a serious weight loss program that includes working out and an eating plan. When we continue to see our 4 stars blasting out style without much substance to show for it, I believe it is a safe prediction the reality of the very words they are saying really hasn't sunk in yet.

For the record, I'm following closely the "Role and Missions" debate, and it is noteworthy that so far everyone is saying basically the same thing: this is "a DoD Dog & Pony show with nothing of substance yet." Some other quotes regarding the DoD Role and Missions debate taking place suggests it is "a bullshit show" that has done little but transform "AirSea Battle into the budget justification for Navy aircraft carriers and Air Force long range bombers." Another description of the effort describes it as "a reason for serious people to pretend to be serious" despite there being "nothing to be serious about, yet."

I get the impression that until there is a real budget number, and people understand the real budget number for FY13 is going to hit like a ton of bricks, everything will look like General Odierno's speech - a lot of style in public with no substance to add meaning to the words being shared.

Fortunately, we'll instantly know if the Navy takes budget cuts seriously. If the Navy faces serious budget cuts and is unable to advocate for at least 7% greater portion of the defense budget, then the litmus test for civilian leaders will be to ask the question to the next CNO whether the budget cuts prompt the necessity for a new fleet design.

If the CNO select tells folks on the Hill it does not, they should reject that persons nomination outright to send a clear signal to the DoD. Why? Because two things will immediately happen. First, all of the services will immediately become very strong public advocates for themselves. Second, it sets expectations. If the folks on the Hill do not leverage the upcoming round of DoD appointments to send a strong fiscal message to the next generation of top military leaders, then the American people will instantly learn that our elected leaders aren't serious about the fiscal crisis either.