The Tipping Point Is Here

I've been thinking and rereading the CNA Tipping Point study. I am finding it is a good framework for thinking about different scenarios that might emerge from the overwhelming challenges facing the Navy today. While CNA did a good job thinking about this issue, I'm not sure I am happy with this description of what a "Tipping Point" is.

The inherent flexibility of naval people and platforms and assets has been proven again and again. The ability of high-end assets to flex for a number of missions along the spectrum of operations has been a staple of deployments by carrier strike groups and their escorts and their air assets. What has not been proven is the ability of a global navy to use forces that are not dominant or not present overseas to deter challengers, deny regional aggressors, or reassure partners. When you are no longer present in one or two areas of vital national interest with dominant maritime forces, you are at the “tipping point.”

My problem with this description is: I believe the factors by which the Navy can be described as being at the tipping point are far more numerous and complex than the described operational metric. As far as I can tell, the Navy has not met the criteria laid out by CNA, thus by the CNA description the US Navy is not at the tipping point.

However, I believe the Navy is indeed at the Tipping Point right now, today, and even if many know it - no leaders are ready to publicly admit it. There is a convergence of several factors including budgets, existing plans, ongoing operations, readiness levels, geopolitical changes globally, cost/value capabilities calculations, and policy demands that taken together suggest the Tipping Point for the US Navy has arrived.

If I was to describe a single metric by which I believe everyone can safely agree the US Navy is at a Tipping Point, my criteria would be whether the US Navy must fundamentally change the way they think about force structure moving forward in the emerging fiscal and geopolitical environment. I think most people who follow this blog are following the news regarding the potential of the US Navy cutting one - maybe more than one - big deck aircraft carriers.

Today, US Navy force structure is organized around the big deck aircraft carrier, and a reduction below 10 big deck aircraft carriers would require the Navy to rethink the fundamental organization behind the existing force structure of the US Navy.

The way I see it, if for any reason the Navy goes below 10 big deck aircraft carriers, the Navy passes the Tipping Point. My research and investigating over the last few months leads me to one inescapable conclusion that I've been very hesitant to date to discuss on the blog: the time when the Navy will fall below 10 big deck aircraft carriers is near.

In my opinion that means the Tipping Point is here.