Simple Problems, Straightforward Solutions

Too often these days in the national security realm, we find ourselves over-analyzing problems consequently resulting in decision paralysis or unworkable, overly complex courses of action. Some problems truly are multifaceted and complex, such as the current situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This complexity is evidenced by a stew of insurgents, transnational terrorists, conflicting strategic interests, malign interlopers, and nuclear weapons stored amid violent Islamic extremists. It is little wonder that progress has been agonizingly slow in the wars in Southwest Asia.

But other problems are quite straightforward. Piracy is one of these problems, consisting primarily of desperate ex-fishermen with nothing to lose and everything to gain, who are led and financed by criminal thugs eager to blow their next insurance-funded ransom payment on prostitutes, khat, and luxury real estate in Kenya. Yes, Somalia's problems overall are quite complex. But they do not need to be solved in order to eradicate piracy, or at least to tamp it down to a manageable problem restricted to local waters.

Instead of rapidly implemented, simple solutions we've muddled through growing Somali piracy with unwieldy C2 architectures, extended discussion and planning, but very little decisive action. Sometimes the simplest, most elegant solution - such as when someone shoots at you, shoot them back - is also the most effective. Embarked armed security teams, which most segments of the shipping industry and flag states have begrudgingly embraced, have been 100% effective to date in stopping ship hijackings off Somalia. Even against swarm attacks, well trained, armed guards have the upper hand against pirates with small arms in open skiffs. To defeat such defenses would require a step up in equipment and tactics which probably exceed even the most competent pirates. Unlike purely defensive measures including razor wire, fire hoses, and citadels, armed response changes the risk/reward equation of the pirates. The success of simple solutions with embarked security and increased propensity to use lethal (not legal) action against pirates by CMF navies is evident in 2011's piracy statistics. “Where a year ago the Somali pirates were seeing a 55 percent success rate, in the first several months of 2011 they have seen only a 17 percent success rate…”

Yet these proactive measures are not enough. Needless to say, as long as pirate facilitation and logistical networks ashore operate with impunity, the incentive to push additional young men with weapons out to sea in search of more prey will remain. Several ways to defeat these networks are available: unilateral US or allied lethal action, international policing similar to the current AMISOM mission, or discrete deployments of allied special forces ashore in Puntland to link up with anti-piracy clan elements. Executing any of these options requires leadership on the part of the United States or one of her capable allies.

Piracy should be ended sooner, rather than later. Eventually, simple problems grow to become more complex and harder to defeat. For example, pirates and al Shabaab might see additional reasons to cooperate, such as in the recent kidnappings of European vacationers from resorts in Kenya into al Shabaab-held territory. Similarly, kidnap for ransom was a frequent crime in post-invasion Iraq and grew out of control when al Qaeda in Iraq began buying prisoners (primarily non-Iraqis) from the criminal kidnappers to raise funds for their terrorist activities and for exploitation in violent jihadi execution propaganda videos. That is, until the kidnapping networks began to be targeted with direct action by coalition forces. Moreover, the dozens of naval vessels currently tied up in countering sea criminals in the Indian Ocean can be put to much better use in the same region.

The opinions and views expressed in this post are those of the author alone and are presented in his personal capacity. They do not necessarily represent the views of U.S. Department of Defense, the US Navy, or any other agency.