Russia's Latest Spacecraft Problem

If you haven't heard this story, I encourage you to read the entire article. It is a news story that I intend to follow, although I may or may not blog on it again - although potentially it may become major news.

A Russian spacecraft on its way to Mars with 12 tons of toxic fuel is stuck circling the wrong planet: ours. And it could come crashing back to Earth in a couple of weeks if engineers can't coax it back on track.

Space experts were hopeful Wednesday that the space probe's silent engines can be fired to send it off to Mars. If not, it will plummet to Earth. But most U.S. space debris experts think the fuel on board would explode harmlessly in the upper atmosphere and never reach the ground.

This was the second failure by the Russian space agency to send a rover to Mars. I do not know what that means for the future of the Russian space program, but given the questionable ballistic missile track record and now repeated failures in space bound rockets, there is clearly evidence of scientific and engineering decline in Russia over the last decade as it relates to rocket and space technology. The increase in commercial aircraft crashes in Russia are also relevant data points.

If the fuel is believed to freeze before reentry, the potential for a hazardous material spill upon reentry is legitimate. I do not claim expertise in the various potential dangers, but the frozen fuel issue was the primary political rationale for shooting down the US-109 satellite a few years ago. As with any space debris, as long as it lands in the Ocean no one cares, but the second it lands in someones back yard the political costs will go up.

It is not outside the realm of possibility that this rocket could be recovered and complete it's mission to Mars. It is also not outside the realm of possibility that this rocket gets shot down.

Like I said, read the article - this is news worth tracking over the next few days-weeks.