Theories and Realities of War

I think this article by Dan Cox over at the Small Wars Journal is an article everyone needs to go read. Read it from beginning to end.

Did you read it yet? Go read the damn article before reading this post any further.

I am going to ask you a serious question, which means if you post an answer in the comments within 5 minutes of being asked the question, your answer probably wasn't considered long enough...

How many different ways are we fooling ourselves? Is counterinsurgency doctrine as fragile as an applied military doctrine as that article suggests? How is it possible counterinsurgency is considered a practical military approach for theater campaign warfighting if as an applied military doctrine in a real war, it can be undone so easily?

If a few burned Korans and the actions of a single mentally unstable individual can set back a theater level military campaign by "months if not years" as suggested by Dan Cox, how sound is the judgment of the civilian and military leaders who pushed this course of action? How sound is the judgement of political leadership who went along with it?

If our nations theater level military strategy in Afghanistan truly is as fragile as Dan Cox suggests, there are many civilian and uniformed military leaders who need to be fired - and yes, it absolutely begins with the President who specifically picked this course of action and advanced it in that military campaign as his first act as Commander in Chief.

Think about the article before responding, because if you discover yourself believing the Koran burning and the rampage of a single individual truly does have the strategic impacts some (like Dan Cox) are suggesting, one only needs to wonder how many lies will be told to salvage the careers of existing civilian and uniformed military leaders who have committed one of the greatest military blunders in post WWII history.

I don't want to believe these events actually matter as much as Dan Cox suggests, because I don't want to believe the nation has this many Generals who supported a theater level war plan in Afghanistan that was truly this fragile. Perhaps I'm too optimistic, or perhaps there is too much overreaction to recent events in Afghanistan.

However, if Afghanistan does unravel by these very limited events, President Obama needs to fire the dozen top military leaders who pushed him for this military approach, and expect he himself could be fired come the next election for the same mistake. If these events are truly as damning as is suggested (and I truly am skeptical these incidents have staying power as strategic setbacks), COIN is a complete failure as an applied military doctrine for any war, ever.

The President is, based on the hype of these incidents, either the fool who picked COIN as the military approach for Afghanistan, or the fool who didn't know better. Regardless, the apparent fragility of COIN in application makes anyone who implements COIN at the theater level look like a fool, and it is a guarantee the American people will be lied to before the magnitude of the COIN mistake is ever admitted, or revealed, publicly.

Bottom line - President Obama isn't pulling out of Afghanistan, at least not this year. And these events aren't that big of a deal, because even if they are - they will get fixed come hell or high water in an election year. As sad as it may or may not be, in an election year soldiers become pawns in the political election. If you believe otherwise, you need to go read up on what was happening in Iraq back in 2004 - it was all flowers and rainbows until the day after the election.