Israel and Iran

I listened to the discussion on Iran by Matt Duss and Ben Birnbaum tonight and thought it was interesting, but I am not sure what criteria Israel would use setting a date for a surprise attack by against Iran. Indeed, when someone says it is almost certainly not a specific date (they said April 13), my first instinct was to check the moon phases that night. Both Matt Duss and Ben Birnbaum seem to think the criteria for an Israeli attack hinges on the ongoing diplomacy. I'm not sure I believe that, as I tend to think Israel is making calculations on actions alone - like the effectiveness of oil sanctions against the Iranian economy or their military capability options against Iran we don't know about.

I recently read this very interesting CRS Report titled Israel: Possible Military Strike Against Iran’s Nuclear Facilities (PDF) by Jim Zanotti, Coordinator Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, Kenneth Katzman, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, Jeremiah Gertler, Specialist in Military Aviation, and Steven A. Hildreth, Specialist in Missile Defense dated March 27, 2012.

It is a very interesting read, but I think they missed some pretty important details, and I think those details may have been omitted on purpose.

A few thoughts.

The report is missing a realistic discussion of cyber capabilities and what the first 3 hours will look like. Let me be clear, the Command and Control capabilities of Iran (and potentially Syria) will not survive the first 3 hours, and there may not be a single bomb delivered during that period. The cyber smart bomb that Israel has likely prepared and potentially already placed on the networks of the Iranians is going to make Stuxnet look ATARI grade. We have been openly discussing the possibility of Iran being bombed by Israel for years - with that kind of lead time, the Israeli's can open a can of whoop ass in cyberspace unlike anything the world has ever seen. Expect it.

An attack by Israel is likely to originate from Israel, but the question is where will the Israeli Air Force go and refuel after finishing the bombing. It could be anywhere, and the bottom line is wherever that place is, the Iranians will struggle to field any credible capability against that target within 24 hours because of C2 problems Iran will be struggling to deal with, and the Iranian Air Force will find that their pilots lack the courage necessary to conduct an airstrike against any air field protected against the Israeli Air Force. Fortune won't favor the brave, the IDF Air Force is one of the very best in the world and even the United States Air Force would have its hands full trying to fight past the Israeli Air Force trying to bomb an airfield protected by the Israelis.

It is entirely possible that Iran could try to rain down dozens, maybe even hundreds of ballistic missiles down on Israel. I'll put my money on the ballistic missile defense capabilities of Israel against the destructive and accurate targeting of the Iranians in that fight. Iran's capabilities would be modern in the 20th century, but this is the 21st century and Iron Dome has proven that Israel is way ahead of everyone when it comes to defensive systems that shoot bullets to hit bullets. I do not see conventional ballistic missiles being anything other than a terror weapon, and ultimately it will be a weapon more likely to kill civilians than military targets. Also noteworthy, the report analysis concludes Bushehr is an unlikely target. I agree with that analysis, and think that is an important detail that might play in the broader diplomacy both before and after any military action - and I do believe that is a specific detail the Obama administration needs to mention more frequently in public as it goes to the heart of the issue that the nuclear power program is not the issue - the nuclear weapons program is.

Finally, there is a train of thought that if Israel attacks Iran, the first thing Iran is going to do is attack the US or other Arab nations in the region. If there was ever wishful thinking from a neoconservative perspective, that would be it. I guess it is possible that Iran could try to mine the Strait of Hormuz and claim they didn't do it, but the first mine that hits a supertanker heading to China - even China is going to call Iran on their bullshit. Iran is almost certainly going to play the wounded Persian role in public in an attempt to rally the Arab world behind them - specifically Egypt, Syria, and Turkey. Attacking the Arab world is not going to forward that agenda, and the retaliation by the Arab world following an Iranian attack on them could potentially be much more dangerous and damaging to Iran than limited airstrikes by Israel.

I have no idea if Israel is going to bomb Iran this week or this year. If Israel is going to attack, I think they will wait until June because that is when the US will have the MIW equipment being moved from CONUS in the Arabian Gulf, because while most calculations don't matter to Israel - insuring the US has had time to position major equipment to be used in defense is one consideration Israel is likely to account for.

I personally believe the Obama administration sanctions on Iranian oil is a huge deal, and could be a golden bullet over time. The oil sanctions strike at the economy of Iran, and if sanctions start getting painful to the people - that could change events inside Iran quite a bit. It would be a mistake to compare sanctions against North Korea with sanctions against Iran, as those nations really have almost nothing in common at the street level. I think Iranians will support a lot of stubbornness from their leadership in support of the nuclear issue, but given the shakeup we have seen in the Arab world over the last 15 months, the tolerance of the people as a whole when it comes to the national economy likely has limits, and the oil sanctions is the first real biting blow to the Iranian economy that will actually test those limits a bit.

Like I said, sometime after June when the naval equipment arrives. Regardless of where negotiations are at (and they have almost no chance at all of success by themselves), that gives a few months for the sanctions to start adding stress to the economy inside Iran.