The Strategic Fallout from Scottish Independence

     It is surprising that such a dire event as the break-up of the United Kingdom is getting little coverage in the United States. Great Britain, the United States, and the rest of the world can ill-afford the strategic effects of Scottish independence at a time when there is growing global uncertainty and instability. The sundering of the United Kingdom will seriously affect the ability of the English/Welsh/Northern Ireland remnant to remain a significant military participant in securing global stability. The dissolution of the British Union may also spur other nationalist groups such as the Basques, Andalusians, Walloons, and other European minorities to demand their own states. A Europe divided and occupied by nationalist crisis would be ill-equipped to support the United States in its ongoing struggle with Islamic extremists, or be strong enough to aid fellow European states menaced by Vladimir Putin’s resurgent Russia. An independent Scotland is the potential tipping point for a new round of European disorder at a time when neither the continent nor the world can afford such activity. The United States should vigorously support a continuing unified Great Britain as Scottish secession will only accelerate global disorder at a time neither the U.S. nor its European allies can afford such an occurrence.

Damaged Britain and Dependent Scotland

SSBN HMS Vengeance in port Faslane

     The pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) has created a Defence White Paper detailing its “demands” on the British Armed Forces should the independence vote be successful. These include handing over one of Britain’s only two Typhoon fighter squadrons, 10% of Britain’s rapidly dwindling surface fleet, and 3 of the British Army’s 36 infantry battalions. These losses may seem small, but an independent Scotland would also demand the removal of Britain’s Trident nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBN's) and their associated support units from the longtime British submarine/nuclear weapons bases at Faslane and Coulport. Such a move could threaten the continuing viability of the British nuclear deterrent and likely cost thousands of jobs and millions of pounds in lost investment according to a report issued by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) last month.

    Scotland’s overall security status would not enhanced in a post-independence environment.  The SNP claims it will maintain Scottish membership in both the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), but both organizations have rebuffed this claim , stating that an independent Scotland would need to seek membership in both as a new independent state. The re-admittance process for Scotland could take years to complete without any firm guarantee of success. Scottish financial freedom will also likely suffer. Several large defence contractors are delaying significant spending in Scotland until after the referendum. Furthermore, companies like BAE systems, Thales, and Babcock have discussed leaving Scotland entirely if independence is approved. This change will take thousands of defence jobs away from the would-be new state and cripple its economic output from the start. The SNP has claimed it will maintain the Pound Sterling as its currency, but Bank of England officials have clearly rejected such a proposal. SNP officials have placed great hope in the North Sea oil and natural gas deposits to fill the new nation’s financial coffers.  Unfortunately, North Sea oil production peaked in 1999, and while there is still oil to be had, significant new investment in equipment and infrastructure is needed to economically extract this increasingly elusive resource. Finally, SNP officials have suggested the new Scotland would operate like Scandinavian states with regards to its defence affairs. A Scotland however without a viable currency, defence jobs, significant military assets, oil income or a place in international security organizations is a state more equivalent to Kosovo or the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) than with Finland or Sweden.

Beginning of European and greater Global Chaos

     Beyond a loss of stability and economic fortune in the British Isles, Scottish independence could be the harbinger of further European national chaos. Other disaffected global minorities with state ambitions are watching the outcome of events in the United Kingdom with growing interest. Spain, which has significant populations of Basques, Catalans and Andalusians faces regular calls for greater self government and even independence from these nationalities. Belgium has seen significant tensions between its Walloon and Flemish peoples that have threatened to break up that nation. French-speaking citizens of Quebec have regularly agitated for independence. All of these groups, as well as others could be emboldened by the break-up of the British state.

   The present world security situation can ill-afford a Europe distracted by internal divisions. The  aggressive Russian state led by Vladimir Putin has used national conflicts in Georgia, the Caucuses, and now the Ukraine to break down potential pro-Western states on its borders. Scotland is not adjacent to Russia, but festering national crisis in otherwise stable nations could be exploited by unfriendly nationals and non-state actors to further their own non-democratic goals. 

Effect on the United States

     European nations menaced by such internal disputes will be unable to vigorously respond to aggression and threats to peace and stability elsewhere.  This condition represents a danger to the United States. The U.S. needs reliable colleagues for international military action.  Great Britain, Spain, and other European states weakened by major internal division are poor partners for such activities. Great Britain has been a most reliable U.S. ally for nearly a century, and a close friend for a far longer period. It has been a close partner in U.S. efforts to combat terrorism in the post Cold War and post 9/11 environment.  It is one of the few NATO nations that regularly meets its alliance military expenditure requirements.  A damaged and distracted Britain could seriously weaken U.S. attempts to build coalitions to combat the growing menace of the radical ISIS state in the Levant, or the aggression of Vladimir Putin.

     This author sincerely hopes that Scottish citizens will reject the surface trappings of independence offered by the SNP in favor of the deeper security and financial freedom provided by inclusion within the British state. Scotland is more stable, secure, and financially viable within Great Britain that it can ever be as a separate country. A separate Scotland will leave the remaining English/Welsh/Northern Ireland state weakened at a time when the West needs a stable front against multiple threats of aggression.