On the Hagel Firing

Secretary of Defense Hagel was shown the door today in one of those classic Washington scenes that reminds one of a Soviet show trial.  We are led to believe that Mr. Hagel initiated this process himself, and that is entirely possible, given the recent revelations from former Defense Secretaries Panetta and Gates about the degree to which the White House staff's micromanagement and meddling had become intolerable. Presumably, Mr. Hagel encountered similar conditions, as the message mismatch between what came out of the White House and what came out of the Pentagon was hard to ignore.

And so, the President will now look for a new Secretary of Defense, and it is likely that one of the conditions of hiring will be that this person will have to go the distance.  Second terms are famous for the degree to which senior people seek employment elsewhere, tired from the grueling jobs they held and aware of the half-life of their value on the open market.  Several names dominated the news this morning when the job opening was announced, but the two most often named were Senator Jack Reed (D-RI) and former Under Secretary of Defense (Policy) Michele Flournoy.  In Senator Reed's case, I simply could not see why he would take the job.  He is likely to be returned to office every six years until he decides not to (a good thing, as he is a superb Senator), and leaving that job now to spend two years across the testifying table from John McCain is probably not high on his bucket list. His staff put the kibosh on this fairly quickly, so it looks like he is out.  As for Flournoy, I imagine her chances of taking the job are only a tiny bit higher, as she knows first hand the degree to which the White House staff dominated policy-making.  Additionally, Secretary Flournoy is a close confidant of Hillary Clinton, and is certain to be on the short list for this position (and others) in two years if Mrs. Clinton is elected.

Some have suggested Information Dissemination favorite (and a favorite of mine) DepSecDef Bob Work for the job, and I think he has a good chance for a couple of reasons.  The first is that he is ultra-competent.  Maybe one of the most competent men I have ever been around.  But more importantly--and this is not an insult, just reality--he is relatively unknown and he has no independent power base.  A White House that seems intent on protecting its prerogatives and minimizing static from across the Potomac might see Work as their kind of guy.  They would underestimate him at their own risk.

But, I have a feeling Bob won't get the nod.  The White House will cast about a bit looking for someone with  some profile, but not too much profile, and a resume of government service in their background, likely on the Hill.  This person will be a team player, and will understand the rules under which they are appointed.  My dark horse prediction:  Secretary of the Air Force Deborah Lee James.