A Case for Emplacing U.S. Personnel on Allied Ships in the South China Sea

Note from Jon Solomon: The article below was written by my Systems Planning and Analysis colleague, Jonathan Altman, to expand upon an idea he suggested during one of our running discussions on deterrence dynamics. Creating a credible extended deterrence ‘tripwire’ is never a simple task; this is arguably even more so at the low end of the conflict spectrum over maritime sovereignty rights or isolated unpopulated ‘rocks.’ I find Jonathan’s proposal quite interesting on that front, and offer it to you for debate.

In the South China Sea, the Chinese are using a “salami-slicing” approach to incrementally shift the norms and territorial balance to their favor, to the detriment of U.S. allies like the Philippines. Until now, the U.S. response to this challenge has been fairly muted; though calls for more transparency and respect for norms frequently come out of the Obama administration, few if any non-verbal steps have been taken to thwart the Chinese approach. However this need not be the case. The act of emplacing U.S. Government personnel aboard friendly nations’ vessels, perhaps including uniformed members of the armed services, could present a major challenge to current Chinese strategy in the region. I will talk more about why this tactic could be so effective in a later paragraph, but first I’d like to address why the Chinese salami-slicing approach has been so successful, and why other attempts to blunt it have had little effect.

To use the famous framework developed by Herman Kahn, Chinese “salami-slicing” strategy has proved effective because they have created conditions in which they have been able to establish and then sustain escalation dominance. By using fishing boats and other non-military craft to harass our allies, seize property, and increase their claims to land features in the South China Sea, the Chinese have rendered U.S. dominance in conventional arms immaterial. The U.S. cannot plausibly use military force to respond to Chinese uses of non-military power against a treaty ally. Because the US has not been able to respond decisively with tools that match the escalation level of those being employed by the Chinese, U.S. policy responses have been limited to official statements that have had little effect thus far due to the lack of leverage. A demand therefore arises for existing tools that can be easily (and cheaply) employed to symmetrically counter Chinese moves at the lowest rungs of Kahn’s escalation ladder. Though there are more tools beyond emplacing US personnel on friendly vessels, this particular tactic seems like a promising place to start. 

It’s critical to be clear up front; this is not an argument to formally dual-crew an allied ship. The legal framework and rules to enable that approach are simply too complex and ultimately unnecessary to achieve the desired effect. What is being suggested is that the U.S. should consider emplacing small groups of U.S. Coast Guard personnel or even other maritime agency personnel (such as U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service officials) as ‘observers’ or ‘advisers’ aboard allies’ maritime law enforcement vessels, and military personnel aboard allied warships or military patrol aircraft. These personnel should principally be armed with cameras, and their purposes would be twofold. First, raise the stakes on Chinese aggression in the region. It is an entirely different calculation to conduct dangerous maneuvers against a Philippine patrol vessel with U.S. Government personnel on board. The Chinese seem comfortable pushing around smaller neighbors knowing that these nations have little recourse beyond lengthy (and largely ineffective) public and private diplomatic complaints. This calculation becomes much different if Chinese strategists were presented with the risk of threatening American lives (whether by ramming or other action) and thereby upsetting a more powerful nation to achieve the same effects. Think back to the Cold War; American soldiers in West Germany were not reasonably expected to defeat a Soviet incursion, but their presence ensured American casualties—which therefore committed American prestige. The ‘tripwire’ forces along the Central European front therefore committed the U.S. to mobilization and retaliation against any Soviet offensive. The same principle applies with American personnel aboard allied platforms.

The second purpose of emplacing American personnel would be to document Chinese transgressions. Even if the mere presence of American personnel does not deter all Chinese actions, providing a direct and timely conduit to the most expansive media networks in the world would likely cause a rethinking of strategy in Beijing. Since the Chinese have chosen to keep action in the South China Sea low on the escalation ladder, global public perceptions of Chinese behavior and Chinese plausible deniability of illegality remain important. If all of a sudden every Chinese transgression made its way onto CNN complete with a verified video account, it seems reasonable to believe that perceptions of China worldwide would be adversely affected, and that the chorus of world opinion might begin to bring uncomfortable attention on their actions as well as a loss of stature.

The intended effect of emplacing U.S. personnel aboard allied vessels ideally should be twofold. First, help our allies by lowering their risk of operations (such as resupplying isolated garrisons) and assuring them that the U.S. is a stalwart friend. Second, negate Chinese escalation dominance by forcing them to confront Americans in order to achieve their ends. This would force them into a choice between moving to higher level rungs on the escalation ladder and therefore incurring a greater risk of conflict with the U.S., or backing off. Whatever course they chose, their incremental approach would be dealt a setback.

Jonathan Altman is a Program Analyst with Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc. who holds a Master’s Degree in International Security from the Korbel School at the University of Denver. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and are presented in his personal capacity. They do not reflect the official positions of Systems Planning and Analysis Inc., and to the author’s knowledge do not reflect the policies or positions of the U.S. Department of Defense, any U.S. armed service, or any other U.S. Government agency.