Tuesday, October 6, 2024

DOT&E;'s Incomplete LCS Survivability Logic



LCS Independence and frigate Gary

     The most recent National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) language on the Littoral Combat Ship program makes requests more akin to a program in development, rather than one with 24 ships built or under production contract. One of the most pernicious of these is a demand for more analysis on the surviviability of the proposed frigate variant of the LCS.  The constant reporting of this supposed LCS deficiency by the Director of Operational Test and Evaluation (DOT&E) is likely one of the key underpinnings for this dictate. The most recent edition of the Congressional Research Service (CRS) report on the LCS program by Ron O’Rourke has a number of statements from the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation (DOT&E) on the survivability (or apparent lack of such capacity) of the modified LCS, now designated as a frigate (FF). DOT&E reports state that proposed capabilities of the modified LCS are still inadequate “compared to the Navy’s legacy frigates.”[1] DOT&E also said that the minor modification of LCS as frigate variant would have somewhat less susceptibility to attack, but “will not yield a ship significantly more survivable than the (current) LCS.”[2]
     It would be helpful if DOT&E published a detailed report of how the agency came to these conclusions. The test and evaluation agency seems to place great faith in the “legacy” Oliver Hazard Perry class frigate, whose last member just exited the active fleet this month, as the ideal modern multimission frigate. The Perry’s were once the recipients of the same sort of criticism currently leveled at the LCS in terms of armament and survivability. The Perry’s are departing from the Navy, however, in a considerably less capable and survivable condition than when they began entering the fleet in the late 1970’s. A direct comparison of the departing Perry’s and both current LCS variants suggests that that their survivability is roughly similar.
      DOT&E seems to believe that the Perry class represents the ideal multimission frigate, but the class was once equally labeled as under-armed, unsurvivable, and crewed too lightly for high endurance operations. A February 1975 GAO report on the Perry (then called a patrol frigate), suggested the ship was too small to accept upgrades over a 30 year lifespan and questioned if the ship could remain viable over that period.[3] A January 1979 GAO analysis of the FFG-7 class criticized the selection of the SQS-56 sonar for the ship, suggested its lifespan would be too short for significant upgrades, said the crew was too small, and was especially critical of the ship’s survivability, suggesting the FFG was, “vulnerable to low level threats” and would be “a cheap kill” in comparison with other ships.[4] The Director of Naval History, Rear Admiral Sam Cox, USN (ret), suggested recently that the LCS was being subjected to the same sort of criticism now leveled at the LCS.[5]
USS Stark (FFG 31) after missile hits, May 1987
     The Perry’s have now departed from the fleet, but in a much denuded condition in terms of armament and sensors, making direct comparisons of their former selves with the current LCS and/or FF disingenuous at best. The Perry once boasted an armament of 40 missiles, a 76mm gun, a close in weapon system (CIWS), and antisubmarine torpedo tubes; all supported by the Mark 92 fire control system. By the late 1990’s, however, the FFG’s was assessed as having, “low capability against near and midterm missile threats.”[6] The Navy removed the FFGs’ MK13 missile launcher in the early 2000’s and with it the ship’s surface to air (SM-1MR) and surface to surface missile (SSM) capabilities. The ship retained its antisubmarine warfare sensors and weapons. The Perry’s retained their CIWS; a weapon generally assumed to be capable of no more than three engagements against air, missile and surface platforms before requiring a reload.
     The Navy defines survivability in OPNAV 9070.1A as a combination of susceptibility to attack, vulnerability to weapons that actively target a ship and recoverability from damage sustained.[7] What does a head to head comparison of the retiring FFG to the baseline LCS sea frame using these criteria reveal about the survivability of both classes? Consider the threat of cruise missile attack; the preferred weapon against surface ships. Neither class is particularly stealthy in design. Emissions control of electromagnetic equipment (radars, sonars, communications, etc) may allow both ships to equally avoid missile attack. In its current condition, the Perry has only its CIWS with perhaps three potential engagements. The LCS has the Rolling Airframe Missile (RAM) launcher (or SeaRAM) with 11-21 missiles per mount, superior range to the 20mm gun of the conventional CIWS, and a similar or better engagement capacity.[8]
Fires out aboard HMS Sheffield. She foundered later in heavy seas
     The Perry is a physically larger ship at 453 ft length, 4200 tons full load displacement, as compared to either LCS sea frame (Freedom at 378 ft length at 3900 tons and Independence at 418 ft length at 3100 tons.) Larger size and greater length represent an advantage in survivability from the perspective of a longer floodable length and greater reserve buoyancy. Such factors come into consideration after a ship is hit. Missile combat since World War 2, most notably in the 1982 Falkland Islands war and in the missile damage suffered by USS Stark (FFG 31) in the 1987 attack suggests that one medium-sized cruise missile or large bomb can immobilize a medium-sized surface combatant (3000-6000 tons displacement). The post-battle investigations of the Stark and the HMS Sheffield (lost in combat in the Falklands) revealed that both ships suffered significant damage to their ability to fight fires from cruise missile hits, residual cruise missile fuel caused significant fires, and that smoke spread rapidly and rendered damage control efforts difficult.[9] Stark at one point sustained a 16 degree list and could have sunk had she encountered similar weather conditions that caused the loss of Sheffield days after she incurred similar damage (also from an Exocet missile hit).[10] Examination of the loss reports of HMS Ardent and HMS Antelope, both of 384 ft. length and 3250 tons full load displacement, suggest that LCS (of similar size) is likely to be affected to an equal or greater extent by similar ordnance.[11] While both reports are heavily redacted, and recommend additional equipment and training, neither report suggests the Type 21 frigate was too small or “unsurvivable” given the level of damage they sustained.
    If all factors of “survivability” for the FFG and the LCS, as currently defined by the Navy, are compared, the results are roughly equal. Both ships are equally effective at avoiding attack through emission control and operational/tactical maneuvering. The hard kill systems of LCS will likely sustain more engagements at longer ranges against cruise missiles than could the FFG. Finally, the FFG, by virtue of its larger size, is more likely to recover from damage sustained than the LCS. The most important point of survivability, however, is to “avoid a hit, and not stand still and slug it out.”[12]
HMS Ardent after fatal bomb hits on her aft, port quarter
     DOT&E needs to publish more detailed reports as to why it continues to so strongly object to LCS survivability. As it stands, the Test and Evaluation agency seems to only compare LCS to its immediate predecessor and only in the most superficial terms.This decision seems contrary to previous DOT&E pronouncements on the importance of detailed testing, such as its suggestion that the Navy invest in a more capable self defense test ship that supports live fire missile testing.[13] Both LCS sea frames are scheduled to complete full shock trials next year.[14] In the absence of other data and in light of the historical evidence presented, perhaps DOT&E should restrict its comments on survivability until it has actionable data. LCS is no less survivable than the departing Perry’s and no ship under 4000 tons and 400 feet in length is terribly “survivable” against modern ordnance.         





[1] Ron O’Rourke, “Navy Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)/Frigate Program; Background and Issues for Congress”, Washington D.C., Congressional Research Service, 21 September 2015, p. 26.
[2] Ibid.
[5] http://www.navy.mil/ah_online/ftrStory.asp?issue=3&id=91288
[6] James F. Wiggins, “Comprehensive Strategy Needed to Improve Ship Cruise Missile Defense “, Washington D.C., General Accounting Office (GAO), GAO/NSIAD-00-149, July, 2000, p. 43.
[8] http://www.designation-systems.net/dusrm/m-116.html
[11] http://www.rna-10-area.co.uk/files/boi_hms_ardent.pdf and http://www.rna-10-area.co.uk/files/boi_hms_antelope.pdf
[12] https://www.aei.org/publication/they-only-say-no/
[13] http://breakingdefense.com/2014/01/top-tester-tells-navy-to-test-carrier-destroyer-defenses-with-real-missiles-explosions/
[14] http://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=91239

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