Last Week's Other Transition of Power

RADM James Shannon USN meets Commander South Sea Fleet RADM Shen Jinlong PLA-N in HMAS Perth at IMDEX Asia, Singapore. (Picture courtesy of Ivan Ingham, Commanding Officer of HMAS Perth.

Last week the largest Navy in Asia undertook a transition of power at the top for the first time in over a decade. The official announcement can be found here, but the English version was reported here.

The People's Liberation Army Navy has appointed a new commander — 60-year-old Lieutenant Admiral Shen Jinlong.

In a news release distributed by the PLA Navy on Friday, Shen spoke in a video conference with officers and sailors of the 25th Escort Fleet in the Gulf of Aden in his new capacity as PLA Navy commander.

That means he has replaced Admiral Wu Shengli, 71, to take charge of the largest navy in Asia. Although the Navy did not disclose when the transition took place, observers believe it was this week.

A point of interest that will be noted by most PLA Navy experts is that Shen Jinlong had been the Commander of the PLA Navy South Sea fleet since December 2014. As we have seen over the last many years, virtually all Commanders of the South Sea Fleet eventually rise to one of the top offices in the PLA Navy. These military moves within the PLA Navy come as China has discussed reorganizing that command into a more "joint" organization.

The South China Morning Post covered the possibility of Shen Jinlong becoming the new PLA Navy Commander last week, prior to it happening, and has additional information on the reorganization that is proposed, and may in fact already be underway.

The PLA is set to break with a long-standing tradition if a proposal to appoint a naval officer to head its strategic southern command is adopted, four independent sources said.

The proposed reshuffle at the helm of the Southern Theatre Command, which is responsible for the South China Sea and the PLA South Sea Fleet, also underscores the rising importance of the navy in the Chinese military and the decline of its army-centric doctrine under an overhaul begun by President Xi Jinping last year.

The article goes on to note other changes, but in discussing Shen Jinlong later in the article, this stood out as worth noting.

If Shen secures the top navy job, it will surprise many PLA watchers at home and abroad. Shen would have beaten a number of rivals, including Vice Admiral Qiu Yangpeng, the chief of staff for the navy, and Vice Admiral Wang Hai, the navy’s deputy commander.

Wang is tipped to be the new commander of the South Sea Fleet and deputy commander of the Southern Theatre Command, according to the sources.

Shen would be the least experienced naval boss for decades.

There are several news reports that the reorganization has taken place, the most interesting new development being that Vice Admiral Yuan Yubai has taken command of the new Southern Theater Command.

While I look forward to the analysis of these events from PLA Navy experts like Andrew Erickson, I see three important takeaways from the early news reporting.

First, Shen Jinlong is as much a scholar as he is a sailor. Shen Jinlong was President of Naval Academy of Commanding from 2011-2014, prior to taking command of the South Sea Fleet. Prior to that he was President of Dalian Naval Academy from 2010-2011. In other words Shen Jinlong spent five years as an Admiral immersed in the two academic establishments most noted for advancing the strategic and academic acumen of PLA Navy officers.

Would it be a feature or a bug if the US Navy CNO had spent five years as a Flag Officer Commanding either Annapolis and the Naval War College. What about both? Is it a feature or a bug that the new Commander of the largest Navy in Asia spent five years in Command of the equivalent of both? I can't speak to the US Navy admirals who take command at Annapolis, but in my opinion based on my own observations, US Navy Admirals who spend time in command at the Naval War College change while they are there, and almost always come out the other side with an increased strategic and academic acumen not easily rivaled by their peers.

Second, reorganizing the Southern Theater Command structure to be under the leadership of a naval officer represents a commitment towards true joint operations that China has been discussing for well over a decade. The Southern Theater Command incorporates Marine forces (sea, land, and air), the air force units in the region, and the rocket forces under the command a naval officer for virtually all military forces with domain responsibilities over the South China Sea region.

The significance of this change cannot be understated. This change ultimately discards PLA military tradition that has been in place for over seven decades where strategic rocket forces commanded by Army officers have controlled the command structure for a region. The Southern Theater Command structure represents the official beginning of a Command structure that includes naval officers, and the first instance of this inclusion takes place in China's most important strategic theater.

Finally, news that the Southern Theater Command will be led by Vice Admiral Yuan Yubai simply cannot be ignored. The world knows very well where Vice Admiral Yuan Yubai stands on South China Sea issues, because he certainly hasn't mince words and his promotion signals his previous comments on the subject almost certainly contributed to his promotion. From September of 2015:

The South China Sea, Yuan said, “is a sea for all the nations around, and a sea of peace.

“The South China Sea, as the name indicates, is a sea area that belongs to China. And the sea from the Han dynasty a long time ago where the Chinese people have been working and producing from the sea.”

While I suspect we will all learn more as the Chinese experts weigh in more facts and opinions on events taking place in the PLA Navy, my initial impression from changes in the PLA Navy last week is that the force took meaningful steps towards more strategic and academic acumen at the top of the PLA Navy, took serious organizational steps towards a joint forces approach for the South China Sea theater of operations, and among all the candidates that could be chosen to lead the Chinese military forces into this new joint forces era in the South China Sea - the PLA Navy ultimately picked one of the most well known vocal hard liners in their ranks for the position.