Fleet Movements in the Med - Updated

As we transition from Georgia to Poland to a lot of threatening political rhetoric from Russia as it expresses its displeasure with how events have unfolded, news reports from Russia tend to indicate the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov is preparing to deploy to the Mediterranean Sea, specifically the Syrian port of Tartus.

The “Admiral Kuznetsov”, part of the Northern Fleet and Russia’s only aircraft carrier, will head a Navy mission to the area. The mission will also include the missile cruiser “Moskva” and several submarines, Newsru.com reports.

President Assad in meetings in Moscow this week expressed support to Russia’s intervention in South Ossetia and Georgia.

Syrian President al-Assad is visiting Moscow and is reportedly negotiating arms and mutual defense initiatives, including a Russian Naval base in the port city of Tartus. This would give Russia a Navy base in the Mediterranean Sea. This should not be a surprise, although the timing and speed that Russia is moving is notable. When Putin first assumed power, one of his first stated goals was to return Russia to prominence in the Mediterranean Sea, indeed what many may not remember is that the Kursk incident occurred during preparations for a major Naval deployment to the Mediterranean Sea. To put it mildly, things did not go according to plan.

On Wednesday, news reports highlighted that the USS McFaul (DDG 74) and USCGC Dallas (WHBC 716) departed Crete loaded with humanitarian supplies. Piecing together news reports, it appears these two ships will be followed by the USS Mount Whitney (LCC 20) later this month.

Interesting note, there are several rumors the Polish frigate ORP General K. Pulaski (272) (formally USS Clark (FFG-11)) and a Canadian frigate will accompany the USS Mount Whitney (LCC 20). The rumor about a Canadian frigate is interesting, with the HMCS Ville de Quebec (FFH 332) escorting food shipments off Somalia for the World Food Program, it raises the question whether the Canadian Navy will send either the HMCS Iroquois (DDH 280) or HMCS Calgary (FFH 335) once HDMS Absalon (L16) joins Task Force 150 at the end of the month.

There are some reports in Turkey, and specifically McClatchy in the US, who have raised the issue of the 1936 Montreux Convention which governs access by Turkey of warships in the Black Sea. We have done a bit of research, and McClatchy sources appear misinformed. The USS McFaul (DDG 74) and USCGC Dallas, and even the USS Dallas (SSN 700) had already received permission by Turkey to access the Black Sea for an exercise that has been long planned. The exercise actually included Russia, but was called off when the conflict in Georgia began. Other ships of SNMG1 were given permission as well, which may be why the rumors of the Polish and Canadian frigate are running in the media. The USS Mount Whitney (LCC 20) did not ask for permission then, which may be why there is some discussion whether the USS Mount Whitney (LCC 20) has been given permission yet.

However, one thing is clear, the issue of the 1936 Montreux Convention is largely overblown at this point, and in reality, isn't helping Turkey right now. The intent of the 1936 Montreux Convention was to keep big warships out of the Black Sea, but it was set at a time when displacement was a major determination of how powerful a ship is. Clearly it means very little today, the USS McFaul (DDG 74), if not the USS Dallas (SSN 700), represent the most powerful pair of naval vessels of war in all of eastern Europe. The 1936 Montreux Convention does little to prevent their access, and instead creates a political issue to allow the barely armed USS Mount Whitney (LCC 20), or the unarmed USNS Comfort (T-AH 20).

While now is probably not the right time for Turkey to reevaluate the 1936 Montreux Convention, clearly it is something Turkey may want to take a look at in the future. Ironically, the last time a nation violated the 1936 Montreux Convention was in 1991 when the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov transited the straits. If the Admiral Kuznetsov does deploy to the Mediterranean Sea, it will be interesting to see if Russia does it again.

Update: Fucking McClatchy, these people are working hard to be Debka quality... which is pretty bad IMO.

They change their article with the facts. The USS Dallas returned today. Check the google cache, McClatchy has rewritten their articles today, but was reporting USS Dallas had approval by Turkey to move into the Black Sea yesterday.

Cached version:
http://64.233.169.104/search?q=cache:rWBGtxSVWMgJ:www.mcclatchydc.com/251/v-print/story/49307.html+%22Months+earlier,+Turkey+approved+the+US+military+sending%22&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us

New version:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/world/v-print/story/49307.html

These are the same people pushing the news about the Montreux Convention being a big deal, which appears to be another load of McClatchy crap with NATO now moving a bunch of warships in the Black Sea.

Destroyer Deploys to Mediterranean Sea

The destroyer USS Barry (DDG 52) deployed on Sunday morning to the Mediterranean Sea for a regularly scheduled NATO deployment.

The ship will deploy as part of the Standing Naval Maritime Groups, a Navy news release says. The groups are multi-national forces that assist NATO around the world.

While in the Mediterranean, the crew is expected to participate in training exercises with allies and make diplomatic port calls, the release says.

The USS Barry (DDG 52) will join SNMG2 and is replacing the USS Gonzalez (DDG 66), which is completing its 6 month deployment. The USS Barry (DDG 52) has a great reputation among European Navies, particularly for the work done supporting evacuations during the Israeli - Lebanon war. The ship also has a reputation of being the best in internal competitions within NATO.

A historical note. On October 21st, 1993, Cmdr. James G. Stavridis relieved Capt. Gary Roughead as commanding officer of USS Barry.

This is a scheduled deployment and rotation.

6th Fleet Focus: Task Force 65 Under New Command

This blog does not shy away from our interest of western Africa. We believe this will ultimately be a major region to watch in the 21st century, and have a number of reasons why that we will not cover in this post. Needless to say, we discuss what is taking place there as often as it grabs our attention, and will continue to do so.

The US Navy Task Force that operates in that region is known as Task Force 65. When we talk about the African Partnership Station, that is the Task Force we are talking about. Stars and Stripes is reporting Task Force 65 is under new management as of Friday by Capt. Cindy Thebaud, and we really like her attitude.

The APS program’s main mission is to teach African navies, militaries and other organizations to secure coastlines and waterways to counter drug-smuggling, illegal human trafficking and illegal fishing, a $1 billion industry. The goal is to have African nations defend their own shores and waters so the U.S. Navy, or others, don’t have to.

"I see it as a brilliant, very much needed, and dynamic mission," said Thebaud. "Everybody I’ve spoken with … the Africans I’ve met at various APS conferences ... all reiterate the development of maritime safety and security is imperative in establishing stability in the region and economic growth and prosperity."

APS also aims to bring in humanitarian organizations at the onset of planning of missions and to work closely with embassies in the region to establish what projects and needs the Navy can get involved in, Thebaud said.

Lets be blunt, the Gulf of Guinea among other regions in the area of operations for Task Force 65 is a backwater shit hole with a ton of problems. It is also ground zero for massive economic growth in Africa, and has one of the most strategically important counterinsurgencies in Africa taking place in Nigeria. This is ground zero for every peacemaking and war winning military strategy concept the joint forces has in their arsenal, and what we see as one of the biggest challenges in the 21st century facing the United States.

Who are the players? The big fish is China, and lets be clear on this. There are many who see China as more than an economic competitor, rather as an adversary the United States will need to deal with. Regardless of whether the relationship between the United States and China is competitive in nature, or adversarial in nature, one of the front lines for that clash of economic titans is the Gulf of Guinea.

We love Capt. Cindy Thebaud's attitude, because while the Navy may be in a peacetime posture, the necessity to go on the offensive with a peacetime strategy is much needed in that region. The African Partnership is one of the more effective tactics in that regard, but it is not the only tactic that can be used. There is a clear military role in the region, specifically for the Navy, but that role is in support of the joint government approach that the State Dept., USAID, and others need to embrace. This is where full spectrum peacemaking strategy must be effective if the United States is going to be a factor in Africa, and build real partnerships in the 21st century.

Capt. Cindy Thebaud is filling big shoes by taking over for Capt. John Nowell, who we followed during the African Partnership deployment and had an opportunity to talk about APS with him during a blogger roundtable. The African Partnership Station represents the most important tactic the United States has in its strategic peacemaking arsenal for Africa. It isn't just the Navy though, as David Axe noted over the weekend on Danger Room, the Coast Guard is there too. Check out the transcript (PDF) of the recent bloggers roundtable with U.S. Coast Guard Capt. Robert Wagner. That is a good read.

For the record, note how the story of US Navy and Coast Guard involvement of Africa is being told. Bloggers. This is why we are supporting independent journalists like David Axe. If we don't support them, who else is going to tell the story?

We want to wish Capt. Cindy Thebaud good luck in her new command, but want to also advise a warning. Sixth Fleet really dropped the ball a few weeks ago. As the near miss of that incident reminds us, APS is only part of the solution.

Update: The Unofficial Coast Guard Blog is also discussing the USCGC Dallas (WHBC 716) operations off Africa.

6th Fleet Focus: Building Silent Partnerships

The submarine force is undergoing its rotations, and because this is all part of regular rotations we don't usually post about it, but the last paragraph of this story regarding the deployment of the USS Boise (SSN 764) caught our attention.

USS Boise will complete some final systems testing in conjunction with the start of her overseas transit because she left a little sooner than planned, the Navy said.

We have seen it suggested in a few places the deployment is in response to this activity, but we don't think so. Israel might be getting the bulk of the headlines, but this is the theater to keep your eye on.

This may seem like a small thing, but this is one of many reasons we expect to hear about some fighting soon in that region. We don't expect foreign involvement on the ground, but the intelligence assets appear to be on the move... and we are not talking about just the Boise.

Submarine activity in that region is hiding in plain sight off and on, but we believe it is about to become a permanent station for a US submarine, and be part of the silent partnership to insure better intelligence regionally for forces to deal with emerging problems.

6th Fleet Focus: Rafale's Fly Off US Carriers

The USS Harry S Truman (CVN 75) is on its way home from a 6 month deployment in the Middle East, but before leaving the Mediterranean Sea, the US Navy is conducting an exercise with France Rafale's.

Images courtesy of Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Ricardo J. Reyes. Click pictures for link to Hi-Resolution on the Navy's website.


As we have previously discussed in detail here, the French blog Secret Défense reported last six to eight Rafale's of the flotilla 12 F and two Hawkeyes of the flotilla 4F are expected to embark on the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) in July of this year. There were also rumors from TTUOnline last year that French Rafale's would embark on the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) later this year as well, but that has not been confirmed anywhere else.

It is unclear if the French will only be participating in the exercises with the Roosevelt or if they intend to deploy with the Carrier when it makes its scheduled 6 month deployment. With the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle (R91) currently in extended maintenance, the French pilots can only train landings and launches from either a US aircraft carrier or the Brazilian aircraft carrier Sao Paulo, which is currently in maintenance itself.

Update: Hat Tip reader FL, who has video here of the French flying on the Truman here. Good stuff. He also has details via this link on the French activity in July on the coast of Norfolk.

6th Fleet Focus: Navy Quietly Deploys Carrier Near Lebanon

If you recall, in early March the US Navy sent the Nassau Expeditionary Group to operate in the Med because of the threat of instability was possible in Lebanon. That threat did not materialize at the time, but clearly the threat existed and we observe as of Sunday night, the threat has turned into reality.

Fierce clashes involving rockets and heavy machine guns erupted in Lebanon on Sunday between pro-government forces and opposition gunmen in mountains east of Beirut. At the same time Arab foreign ministers held an emergency meeting in an effort to find a solution to the worsening crisis.

The increasing violence outside the capital marked a dangerous escalation of an armed conflict that began after Hizbollah, the Shia militant group, and its opposition allies sealed off the airport and seized areas of west Beirut last week...

The longer the confrontation goes on, the greater the danger it could spread into a regional crisis, with Hizbollah backed by Syria and Iran, while the region’s main Sunni states - Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan - support the government.

Saudi and Egyptian officials have said they were dismayed by Hizbollah’s actions, which they have described as unacceptable.

While it may be taking the media a bit to realize that 1 + 1 = 2, we observed the transit of the Truman Carrier Strike Group through the Suez Canal on Thursday, and the arrival of the USS Harry S Truman (CVN 75) to Rhodes (Greece) on Friday. In other words, while the USS Harry S Truman (CVN 75) may not be operating off the coast of Iran near the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72), the carrier is now operating very close to Lebanon.

The USS Harry S Truman (CVN 75) is unlikely to stay in the region for any longer than a few weeks, if it stays at all, but it is worth noting that as military activity heats up in Lebanon, there will be considerable coalition Naval forces in the region over the next few weeks. While we are not sure of the schedule for the HMS Illustrious (R06) on the Orion 08 deployment, we note that the USS Cole (DDG 67) which has been operating with the British carrier has already scheduled a port visit to Palma, Spain on Saturday. We think we remember Orion 08 being a 5 month deployment, and given the deployment began in January, it could be approaching its conclusion.

If civilian evacuations become necessary for Lebanon, we observe the Navy will likely also send a ship attached to the Nassau ESG, likely either the USS Nassau (LHA 4) or USS Nashville (LPD 13) due to the USS Ashland (LSD 48) last reported near in southern Africa in exercises with regional nations there. There are no Marines on board the ships of the Nassau ESG, so there is no possibility of Marines in Lebanon.

It is always difficult to determine which escorts are operating with the a Carrier in any given Carrier strike group due to dispersion tactics that split strike group forces over a large area once they arrive to a region, but we list the ships last known to be still be operating with the Truman CSG.

USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75)
USS San Jacinto (CG 56)
USS Hue City (CG 66)
USS Carney (DDG 64)
USS Oscar Austin (DDG 79)
USS Winston S. Churchill (DDG 81)
HMS Manchester (D95)
USNS Arctic (T-AOE 8)

The Navy will announce this week how long the Truman CSG will be operating in the 6th Fleet. Given the Truman CSG deployed on November 5th, and the strike group has been at sea for over 6 months now, it is likely if there is any extension to the deployment to hang around Lebanon we will see naval forces surged from the east coast to take up station, and bring the Truman sailors home.

Global Fleet Stations Forever

When we observe the Navy discussing Global Fleet Stations, the mission objective profile is one of a mission without end. Instead the mission will transition from one phase to another, and the next phase of both the the Caribbean region Global Fleet Station and the African Partnership Station in the Gulf of Guinea region. Admiral Stevenson discussed the next 4th Fleet region Global Fleet Station (PDF) at the last blogger round table discussion.

This year we have a Global Fleet Station. That's a diving platform. That deploys this summer and will go into a majority of the Caribbean countries and do an awful lot of diving, training, port security, harbor protection type of things. And the following year, even later on in the fall, we may get Swift back, before her contract with the Navy ends, to continue some of the things that we started last year.

The diving ship being deployed is the USNS Grasp (T-ARS 51), an interesting choice. As a Global Fleet Station ship we observe the ship doesn't bring a lot of berthing, raising the question whether another ship will also be involved (probably via charter). Still, we see the Navy leveraging the MSC in this role as very wise, a way to sustain engagement with regional partners in a way that is clearly relevant to those regional nations.

The next phase in the Gulf Of Guinea will also look different this summer. While I haven't seen confirmation anywhere else yet, back in March Zachary M. Peterson reported for Inside The Navy (subscription only) that plans are already in motion for sustaining the African Partnership Station as well.

A Coast Guard cutter, Dallas, will deploy to the Gulf of Guinea this summer and plans for a French ship to steam in the region with embedded U.S. Navy training teams are also under way, he noted.

“APS doesn’t end when Fort McHenry [and Swift] go home,” Nowell argued. Adm. Mark Fitzgerald, commander of Naval Forces Europe, has said that the Navy is “here to stay” in West African waters, but details of how engagements in the region will fold into the nascent U.S. Africa Command remain to be determined, the captain said.

Zachary Peterson had another article on Tuesday in Inside The Navy that hit on the subject again. It was picked up in the CHINFO Clips.

This fall, the sea service plans to further efforts to build naval and coast guard capacity in coastal Western African countries by deploying a “variety of delivery platforms” ranging from frigates to destroyers and P-3 maritime surveillance aircraft detachments to the region, Capt. John Nowell, commodore of Task Force 365 (focused on West and Central Africa) and Destroyer Squadron Six Zero, said in a telephone interview April 21.

“Next year we expect another amphibious ship, probably the Nashville (LPD-13), to continue to conduct a similar mission to what we did with Fort McHenry (LSD-43),” Nowell said...

Guess that answers the questions regarding the USS Nashville (LPD 13) sale to India. The article goes on to note that blue water naval forces aren't always the best tools for the region though.

The APS effort incorporates a wide variety of projects in the region and is not specifically tied to gray-hull ships, Rear Adm. Anthony Kurta, director of policy, resources and strategy for Naval Forces Europe, said in a telephone interview April 23.

“There will be activity [in West Africa] under the APS banner for the next sixto-eight months,” Kurta noted.

These activities include the deployment of the Coast Guard cutter Dallas (WHEC-716) this summer and ongoing deployments of training teams throughout the region.

Phase 1 is an Amphibious Ship and a HSV. while phase 2 includes a MSC vessel and a Coast Guard Cutter. Admiral Clarke used to talk about using existing platforms and capabilities in new and innovative ways, we observe Global Fleet Stations and the resources being committed fits that description well. While the capabilities utilized for Global Fleet Stations are not new, the approach is innovative, a trend in ideas for the maritime domain that reflects a 4GW world.

6th Fleet Focus: Observing International Exercises

Below are the ship lists of participants in Joint Warrior 2008 and Phoenix Express 08.

Joint Warrior 2008

Great Britain
HMS Bulwark (L15)
HMS Southampton (D90)
HMS Portland (F79)
HMS Walney (M104)
HMS Tireless (S88)
HMS Torbay (S90)

United States
USS Anzio (CG 68)
USS Donald Cook (DDG 75)
USS Barry (DDG 52)
USS Taylor (FFG 50)
USNS Big Horn (T-AO 198)

Germany
FGS Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (F218)
FGS Karlsruhe (F212)
FGS Nerz (P6124)
FGS Hyane (P6130)
FGS Bad Bevensen (M1063)
FGS Kulmbach (M1091)
FGS Mosel (A512)
FGS Rhon (A1443)
U25 (S174)

Netherlands
HNLMS Rotterdam (L800)
HNLMS Johan de Witt (L801)
HNLMS Van Speijk (F828)
HNLMS Mercuur (A900)
HNLMS Walrus (S802)

Denmark
HDMS Absalon (L16)
HDMS Esbern Snare (L17)

France
FS Andromede (M643)

Poland
ORP General K. Pulaski (272)

Turkey
TCG Gemlik (F492)

SNMG1
SPS Blas de Lezo (F103)
USS Nicholas (FFG 47)
FGS Lubeck (F214)
NRP Vasco de Gama (F330)

SNMCMG1
HMS Roebuck (H130)
HMS Hurworth (M39)
LVS Imanta (M04)
FGS Weilheim (M1059)
BNS Primula (M924)


Phoenix Express 08


United States
USS Nassau (LHA 4)
USS Nashville (LPD 13)
USS John L. Hall (FFG 32)
USNS Patuxent (T-AO 201)

Algeria
Al Soummam (937)

Morocco
Mohammed V (611)

France
FS Acheron (A613)

Greece
HS Spetsai (F453)
HS Evros (A415)

Portugal
NRP Corte Real (F332)

Spain
SPS Infanta Elena (P76)

Turkey
TCG Gelibou (F493).

6th Fleet Focus: African Partnership Station Ends

The Africa Partnership Station to the Gulf of Guinea concluded this week, according to yesterday's press announcement. It has been a long time since the American people can point to a military supported operation in Africa with a lot of pride, but only someone who hates Africa and the people there could conclude the African Partnership Station is a bad idea.

Most Americans have no doubt heard that there is a need for inter service cooperation and inter agency cooperation that factors in the private sector. If you are looking for that model supported from the sea, the Global Fleet Station is it, and the African Partnership Station was the realization of the successful implementation of that model for Africa.

Today's press announcement summarizes some of the data of the deployment, we like this summery best.

Over the course of seven months, APS has visited 19 ports of call in 10 countries and trained over 1500 maritime professionals in skills ranging from small boat handling, port security, and martial arts to non-commissioned officer leadership, damage control, and maritime law.

“We have been working with our partners in many European countries. The French have been down here with a number of ships and we have been working very closely with them,” said Rear Adm. Anthony M. Kurta, U.S. Naval Forces Europe. “The staff of APS has also been very international in nature; we’ve had representatives from Portugal, France, Germany, and England as well as many staff members from our African partners as well.”

Additionally, APS worked with non-governmental organizations such as Project Handclasp, USAID, and Project Hope to bring relief and aid to many people in need. With the help of APS, Project Hope was able to donate five hundred thousand high nutritional meals, twenty-five pallets of medical, hygiene and educational supplies along with hospital beds and medical equipment valued at over one hundred thousand dollars.

Even those very interested in the US Navy probably had no idea France has been involved the whole time, and while they call their deployment to the Gulf of Guinea something else, the FS Tonnerre (L9014) has been down there almost the entire time supporting a similar mission profile as the USS Fort McHenry (LSD 43) and HSV-2 Swift. That is a pretty big platform for France to commit to a Global Fleet Station mission. In truth though, they've done that mission with similar platforms to that region in the past, the only difference was this year they increased the scale of their operation to match the US commitment.

There were two major events of the African Partnership Station that will require additional study to further the concept. The first was the humanitarian crisis that broke out in Chad, of which few may realize the African Partnership Station got involved. We'll let the press release tell the story.

”As we started lap two, we had the unrest in Chad where a number of refugees came over the Cameroonian border. The U.S. ambassador in Cameroon and the leadership there were familiar with APS,” said Capt. John Nowell, Commander Africa Partnership Station. “They were familiar with some of the items we had onboard including some high nutrition meals. They were familiar with our flexibility and so they asked if we could accelerate getting Swift there. Then we used the relationships we had with organizations like USAID and Catholic Relief Services as well as local organizations to facilitate getting those products off the ship and to the right place for use in the refugee operation.”

Note, the non government agency partnerships the mission had developed allowed for rapid response with the right product. Very nice. NGOs really do know best, their integration into the proactive humanitarian approaches represents an ideal way in our opinion for the Navy to conduct humanitarian operations as offensive tactic in peacetime. In that way the services don't have to recreate the process, rather enhance the one in place with what the military already does best: logistics.

The other operation was the Sea Basing operation we highlighted extensively. That operation barely got any press coverage, sad. Probably one of the most important focused proactive humanitarian operations in our nations history considering how much humanitarian supply materials was moved, not to mention an important test of Sea Basing, and almost no one in the country heard about it. Without question, and I'll debate this with anyone, the Sea Base operation off Liberia is the most important US Navy story so far in 2008, and that includes the satellite shoot down in the Pacific that everyone wanted to talk about.

It is this moment, after a successful deployment to Africa that many Americans don't really understand, where Admiral Ulrich's retirement is evident. This was the moment he was at his best. There should be a blogger roundtable on this topic on Thursday, not to discuss the topic with people like you and me, rather to educate the political bloggers who claim care about Africa and humanitarian missions regarding what the Navy just did.

Observing the Naval Surge To The Middle East

The news of naval activity from the Middle East region is beginning to reach a point of disinformation, so we think it might be time to provide analysis regarding what is going on throughout the Middle East region. In a quiet way, major naval activity is taking place that is not being highlighted in the open source, and outright ignored in the media. What we find interesting is the naval activity represents the largest Naval buildup around the Middle East region since late 2003, particularly east of the Suez Canal, however because it is not the US Navy the media is ignoring this massive buildup of force.

As we observed back in January, we predicted that by late March there would be an enormous naval surge to the Middle East region. Our predictions have proven right, but due to the nature of the naval buildup, there is very little discussion of it. There is no question the build up represents scheduled deployments and alliance naval activity of a routine nature. There is also no question that the tension level for war is growing, and we can now safely say the date being observed in the region where many expect war to break out is April 6th.

What will replace it, nearly everyone in Beirut speculated to me, is the resumption of the Hizballah-Israel war that ravaged Lebanon in the summer of 2006. Some Lebanese even have a precise date for it: April 6 — the day Israel's biggest emergency drill ever starts, when they believe the Israeli Defense Forces juggernaut will roll across the border to finish the job they should have during the 34-day conflict. Although, mind you, there's not a thread of evidence that the Israelis are really going to invade.

Robert Baer is an excellent reporter, and his TIME magazine article captures the essence of the tension currently in Lebanon. Threats of war and rumors of war currently dominate the headlines in Lebanon, and in response the government has rescheduled the presidential election once again, this time until April 22nd. Considering the degree of tension, it is legitimate to ask the question whether there will be a presidential election or whether a war will need to be fought first. The only problem with the question of war is, while it is probable all nations are ready to get it over with, nobody wants to start it. Whether war actually takes place in the region is anyones guess, but there is no question those who expect to be involved are preparing themselves.

The reason the Naval activity is not getting a lot of attention is because the enormous naval buildup around the Middle East is European, not US, in nature. For the first time since before September 11th, 2001, there are more ships from European Navies in 5th Fleet Area of Operation than ships of the US Navy, and we observe at least 4 more major French ships will either enter or return to the theater over the next few weeks. The buildup of Naval power is striking not simply in its quantity, but also in its quality, including everything from additional minesweepers, a Mine Warfare Command Vessel, the Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Illustrious (R06), and 2 large French Naval aviation ships with expeditionary capabilities.

We observe in the hyper tension environment of the Middle East that many have the expectation that a Naval buildup implies a strike against Iran could come at any time. Readers of this blog know we have no such belief, in fact until we see two MEUs operating in the Persian Gulf we are not ready to believe the US Navy would even entertain the idea of any such attack, as we believe the Navy requires two MEUs to secure the Strait of Hormuz. However, given the nature of the European naval surge not only east of the Suez Canal, but also in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, we do believe both the United States and Europe is building up a massive naval force with the intention of deterrence.

Based on some of the recent strange naval news from the region, we make the following observations based on historical patterns and evolving political events.

The story out of Iran that a submarine and a destroyer recently crossed the Suez canal has all the signs of potentially true, but as usual the Iranians are simply making news where news doesn't exist. Rather than the suggestion the USS Montpelier (SSN 765) crossed Suez, as implied with a stock photo of the USS Montpelier (SSN 765) from 2003 in this story, we believe what has actually happened is the USS Albany (SSN 753) and the USS Bulkeley (DDG 84) attached to the Nassau Expeditionary Strike Group that has been in the Mediterranean Sea crossed into the Red Sea. People might ask why Iran would think such naval movements is news, well the answer is actually pretty easy to explain.

Iran can't track modern submarines. Iran simply lacks the technology and the training necessary to track modern western submarines, and that has been the case for years now. While Russia sold Kilo submarines to Iran back in the 90s, one of the little discussed details of that deal is that it was brokered by Vice President at the time Al Gore, and Al Gore let the deal from Russia take place as long as Iran couldn't get sophisticated Russian sonar equipment. Russia wasn't offering sophisticated sonars anyway, and needed the submarine sales badly at the time, so they took the horse trade.

In effect, Iran has some of the worst sonar equipment of any Gulf nation, certainly not to the quality of Saudi Arabia or Egypt, and they simply can't detect a US submarine unless it crosses the Suez Canal. Might sound unbelievable to some, but thus is the nature of export restrictions and careful security of sonar equipment, of which most nations simply don't want to share because it exposes their own capabilities. The Chinese have written extensively about this, including their frustration with Russia who hasn't shared their most sophisticated sonar systems. Most people don't realize that small detail explains why Iran builds small mini submarines rather than large submarines, small submarines don't need sophisticated sonar while large submarines do to be effective, so it simply makes more sense for Iran to focus its domestic submarine production on what is effective.

We think it is both ironic and hilarious the Iranian news agency would put a picture of the USS Montpelier (SSN 765) in its news article, because it is a better than average bet the Iranians have absolutely no clue where the USS Montpelier (SSN 765) is. It is also a better than average bet that if the Captain of the USS Montpelier (SSN 765) raised his periscope, he could see land... in Iran.

Bottom line on the US Navy deployments, the Nassau Expeditionary Strike Group is simply doing what would be expected, and in an indirect way the Iranian news report simply highlights what would be an expected behavior for a submarine crossing the Suez, always with a destroyer escort. For the rest of the US Navy we observe the following.

The USS Nassau (LHA 4), USS Nashville (LPD 13), USS Philippine Sea (CG 58), and USS Ross (DDG 71), all part of the Nassau ESG, have taken up station in the eastern Mediterranean Sea while tensions are high. We do not speculate on the USS Ashland (LSD 48), which may head towards the east coast of Africa to do what LSDs do lately, support anti-piracy operations. The USS San Jacinto (CG 56), part of the Truman Carrier Strike Group, has been operating in the Mediterranean Sea region since it deployed with the Truman CSG last year, and remains conducting security operational training in the area. The Nassau ESG is not carrying Marines, so its mission capabilities are clearly defined as defensive and limited to being a support element for evacuation of Lebanon should hostilities break out. We believe the decision to station these ships there is intentional due to their lack of Marines, noting that the sizable UNIFIL force and enormous number of European Naval assets at sea in the Mediterranean Sea offers the Europeans credible capabilities and contingencies to support their own troops already on the ground in UNIFIL should hostilities actually break out near Israel.

As our most recent Order of Battle noted, the US has the Truman Carrier Strike Group and the Tarawa Expeditionary Strike Group in the Middle East Gulf region. Many of the Truman CSG assets are currently operating near Somalia as the African nation troops move into position. There are also a considerable number of NATO naval vessels in that region, including ships from Germany, France, Canada, the Netherlands, and Denmark as noted in our Order of Battle. While we have no confirmation whether it is happening, one pattern we have observed is the use of the regional LSD, in this case the USS Whidbey Island (LSD 41), acting as an offshore staging base for monitoring pirate activity. The USS Whidbey Island (LSD 41) will soon be replaced by the USS Oak Hill (LSD 51) in the next few weeks.

Finally, we observe the Orion 08 deployment continues in the Indian Ocean, and the force is beefing up as Harriers return to Lusty. We still find it very strange that the British force deployed with Minesweepers, but we chalk it up to a high degree of preparation related to the tensions surrounding Iran. We noted the recent news from across the pond that the British are making contingency plans should a tanker war scenario return to the Persian Gulf, but we simply don't believe Iran is that stupid. While it might sound really scary for Iran to close down the Strait of Hormuz, we don't rule out the possibility that China wouldn't turn around and invade Iran if they tried it. It is one thing to want to piss off the United States, but we believe it would be a mistake of profound miscalculation to get between China and what they see as their oil, particularly right before the Olympic games.

While we don't see how or where war is coming from, we find it noteworthy we are in the midst of the largest European naval surge to the Middle East in the 21st century and nobody is talking about it, and we would bet many of the worlds sharpest military observers barely noticed it.

6th Fleet Focus: Where are the Amphibs?

In the cold war, the phrase asked by Presidents was "Where are the Carriers." Much to the chagrin of folks like Mike who believes that big deck amphibious ships are no longer necessary, in the Long War the phrase has changed, the question now asked is "Where are the Amphibs?" There are events taking place in the world, and it appears the question has been asked again. Welcome to the Long War.

The U.S. Navy has replaced two ships it sent off the coast of Lebanon last week amid political deadlock there to send a signal to Syria, officials said on Tuesday.

The cruiser USS Philippine Sea and the destroyer USS Ross replaced the destroyer USS Cole and a refueling ship over the past day, U.S. Navy officials said.

Another refueling ship remained in place, meaning the United States continued to have three warships in the area, said the officials, speaking on condition of anonymity.

It is one thing to sit the USS Cole (DDG 67) off a coast to cover operations other than war in a potential war zone. In fact it's smart to do so, rapid response for civilian evacuation is part of what the Navy does. It is an entirely different thing when major elements of an Expeditionary Strike Group begin patrolling off a war zone. The Nassau Expeditionary Strike Group consists of:

USS Nassau (LHA 4)
USS Ashland (LSD 48)
USS Nashville (LPD 13)
USS Philippine Sea (CG 58)
USS Ross (DDG 71)
USS Bulkeley (DDG 84)
USS Albany (SSN 753)

The election in Lebanon is March 11th, this upcoming Monday.

Stratfor has interesting analysis regarding the Israeli military operations in Gaza. They speculate that Israel is weakening Hamas because they believe they are about to fight a war with Hezbollah in Lebanon very soon. Stratfor notes an important detail, in the Winograd report which laid out the failures of the 2006 War, Israel was said to suffer from slow decision making in dealing with Hamas in Gaza as they also fought Hezbollah in Lebanon. If Israel believes they are about to be attacked by Hezbollah, in that context the military actions against Hamas sooner rather than later tend to fit perfectly as a lesson learned from the 2006 war. We note the allegations of Iranian supplies for both groups have already hit the media.

There is one thing that should be noted. The Lebanese press is going nuts over the possibility of amphibious ships off their coast. The threats are mostly in regards to the "last time Marines were in Lebanon" and other such rhetoric. One problem with the rhetoric, there are no Marines on board the Nassau ESG, the MEU was sent to Afghanistan as part of the Marine surge in the headlines recently.

While we have stated in the past we hope the Navy has deployed the ESG with a number of maritime toys within the big spaces of the amphibious ships; we honestly have no idea what the ships deployed with. In observing these developments, we can't help but notice the obvious. While there are discussions of wargames and studies regarding the roles of Sea Bases, what they are, and what they can be/do; the Navy is in a unique position to set up one right off the coast of Lebanon leveraging the best of what amphibious ships and the MSC can do for operations other than amphibious assault. We hope they give great consideration in finding useful ways to leverage this capability (ie think Joint, and International), but also protect it should hostilities break out.

Finally, we have not yet identified what aviation squadrons are deployed with the Nassau ESG, but in noting the type of aircraft that were on board as of last week we are hoping Springboard can tell us. He is our go to guy for that particular aircraft. Click the photo for a better look.

6th Fleet Focus: Observing Operations in the Med

This is something we intend to keep an eye on.

The US Navy is sending three warships to the eastern Mediterranean Sea in a show of strength during a period of tensions with Syria and political uncertainty in Lebanon.

Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters the deployment should not be viewed as threatening or in response to events in any single country in that volatile region.

"This is an area that is important to us, the eastern Med," he said when asked about news reports of the ship movements. "It's a group of ships that will operate in the vicinity there for a while," adding that "it isn't meant to send any stronger signals than that, but it does signal that we're engaged, we're going to be in the vicinity and that's a very, very important part of the world."

Another military officer, speaking on condition of anonymity because full details about the ship movements are not yet public, said the USS Cole is headed for patrol in the eastern Mediterranean and that the USS Nassau, an amphibious warship, would be joining it shortly. The officer said a third ship would go later, but he did not identify it by name.

The USS Cole (DDG 67) had been part of the HMS Illustrious (R06) Orion 08 deployment. That raises the possibility there are other ships from other countries that might react to the situation in Lebanon, and I am thinking specifically about France who has been all over Syria about staying out of Lebanon.

The third ship could be any number of ships. The USS San Jacinto (CG 56) is currently operating in the Black Sea. The USS Gonzalez (DDG 66) and USS Nicholas (FFG 47) both deployed to work with the NATO fleets recently. One of the other ships in the Nassau ESG that recently deployed could also be rotated into that theater.

However, we believe the most likely ship the Navy sends as the third ship will be the USS Whidbey Island (LSD 41). The first order of business for the Navy if hostilities breaks out is evacuation, not confrontation, and the other three ships have specific missions that probably will go on without interruption unless hostilities breaks out. If that is indeed the 3rd ship, it will be several days before we learn of it because it will take several days to arrive to that location.

It is very interesting the USS Nassau (LHA 4) is being sent. We note, the ship does not have Marines onboard, in fact we aren't really sure what the Nassau has onboard for this deployment, so it will be interesting to see how the ship (and what tools) will be utilized in this type of peacemaking scenario. I know we are very interested.

We only have two requests for those ships moving into that theater. Keep a sharp eye out for ASMs and mines, because the last ASM fired and last mine found were both in the 6th fleet AOR.

6th Fleet Focus: Rotating the NATO Force

Virginia-Pilot reports that the US is deploying warships this Monday to replace the current warships serving in the Med.

The destroyer Gonzalez and the frigate Nicholas are scheduled to deploy from Norfolk Naval Station on Monday.

The ships will deploy to the Mediterranean Sea and the 6th Fleet, providing maritime security and making diplomatic port calls, according to a Navy announcement.

We believe... the USS Gonzalez (DDG 66) and USS Nicholas (FFG 47) will be replacing the USS Bainbridge (DDG 96) and USS Laboon (DDG 58).

This is the first deployment of the USS Gonzalez (DDG 66) since August of 2006, where as a sea swap test ship she served 18 months in the Persian Gulf region.

It will be interesting to read stories from the deployment of the USS Bainbridge, between its African tour last year and the deployment of the mine hunting UUVs, there several are aspects of the Bainbridge deployment we are interested in reading about. We are always curious on the new MIW hardware, it is one thing to hear good things from the lab folks, but the opinions of sailors using this stuff matter most to us.

6th Fleet Focus: Picture of the Day

Last week we discussed the Russian exercises in the Atlantic. From an observers perspective, I'm betting the sailors of the USS San Jacinto (CG 56) had the best seat in the house. This appears to have been taken before the exercise.

MEDITERRANEAN SEA (Jan. 18, 2008) The guided-missile cruiser USS San Jacinto (CG 56), foreground, and Russian Navy destroyer Admiral Chebanenko steam alongside each other. San Jacinto is operating in the U.S. 6th Fleet area of responsibility to help improve maritime safety and security and support the U.S. Navy's maritime strategy. U.S. Navy photo by Aviation Warfare System Operator 2nd Class Justin Phillips

Click the photo to the high res link.

6th Fleet Focus: Guidance 2008 Reflects Maritime Strategy

U.S. Naval Forces Europe/Africa Guidance for 2008 was released Jan. 8, by Adm. Mark Fitzgerald Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe and Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Africa. It is available to read on the 6th Fleet website. The reason we find this an interesting read is because it highlights how some of the naval terminology has changed to put the 2008 Guidance in line with the new Maritime Strategy. Words have meaning, buzzwords not so much, but one needs to understand the buzzwords in naval terms to understand what the Navy is saying, the direction they are taking within the context of strategy, and they are doing.

Operational Objectives

1. Improve Maritime Safety and Security in Africa and Europe
2. Be Prepared for Any Contingency
3. Provide Exceptional Stewardship to Our Workforce and Families
4. Advance the Art and Science of Maritime Operations
5. Enhance Awareness of the Harmony of Partner and U.S. Interests and Activities
6. Support Other EUCOM, AFRICOM, and Navy Component Commanders

It would appear the phrase Maritime Safety and Security (MSS) is going to stay in the lexicon. Admiral Ulrich, whom Adm. Mark Fitzgerald recently replaced, can be credited for building a foundation for some the partnership strategies contained in the new Maritime Strategy. His low cost and effective implementation of a maritime traffic tracking system in the Mediterranean Sea has led to increased regional information collection of relevant maritime data, data which the Navy has encouraged cooperation with by bringing regional nations together to form a larger maritime partnership based on a regional mutual security interest. There have been problems, there always are, but there have also been successes in that regard.

The new Maritime Strategy transitions the Navy into a revolution of security affairs. 6th Fleet is rightfully shifting strategy from what was primarily a cold war defense role to a collective security and stabilization role. 6th Fleet is looking to export encouragement and services to help form international partnerships in troubled regions, particularly in its African theater, hoping to increase regional security and promote stability in Africa. What makes joining these regional partnerships attractive to regional nations is that the partnerships don't require the US to create a footprint within their countries, rather the US footprint remains at sea in what is one of many concepts being developed under Sea Basing. It will be interesting as we observe AFRICOM evolve where Sea Basing fits in their developing strategy.

The Navy is there to provide services; logistical, humanitarian, training, etc; to both the sovereign regional partners and other partnership agencies involved. These partnership agencies include the intelligence agencies, Coast Guard, the State Department, USAID, among others, and several private medical, social, and environmental organizations are encouraged to partnership as well. If the strategy is successful, individual nations will be who ultimately provides the safety and security for their respective region of these partnerships.

The soft power approach by 6th Fleet represents a grand strategy for theater cooperation in the maritime domain, and we are already seeing several examples in recent and current deployments. During the recently completed Enterprise CSG, the USS Forrest Sherman (DDG 98) spent almost the entire deployment on a tour of nations in both the 5th Fleet and 6th Fleet theaters, and appears to have hit several ports in the Black Sea and also circumvent Africa during that deployment. The SNMG1 and SNMG2 activities south of the Suez are also examples. Currently, the USS Bainbridge (DDG 96) serves with SNMG1 while the USS Laboon (DDG 58) serves with SNMG2, thus continuing the partnerships within the NATO framework.

The USS San Jacinto (CG 56), which deployed with the Truman CSG is operating in the Mediterranean Sea and we expect to see it visit a number of nations in the 5th and 6th fleet like the USS Forrest Sherman (DDG 98) did. When you consider the USS Fort McHenry (LSD 43) African Partnership Initiative mission in the Gulf of Guinea, where we have also seen the USS Annapolis (SSN 760) make a stop, and the HSV Swift is inbound, American sailors operating in the 6th Fleet have become the ambassadors to Africa within the context of the new Maritime Strategy.

The nature of many of these maritime partnerships is informal, voluntary, and subject to change with the political winds for each nation, including the US, meaning this type of soft power strategic approach requires the United States to have an effective, consistent foreign policy that contains credible outreach to partner nations in the partnership if it is to be effective.

Of all the Fleets, the 6th Fleets continued gradual transition from a historically major war fleet supporting a garrison strategy of Europe against the Soviet Union into a tailored soft power expeditionary sea based fleet strikes us as an interesting barometer for measuring the soft power influences of the new Maritime Strategy. Tradition in the Navy tends to generate resistance to change, even when there is agreement that change is needed.

So far, other than the API we are not really seeing any major changes, the large surface combatant tours to various ports in the Black Sea and Africa isn't something new, it just hasn't been done in years while the Navy has been focused in the traditional cold war maritime regions. The only change we are observing is more ships operating near Africa than in past years. Will we see something new that connects to the regional nations emerge with these large surface combatant tours? We'll have to wait and see.

Russian Navy Deploying CVBG to the Mediterranean

On Wednesday the rumors that the Russian Navy has been working up for a major deployment was confirmed when Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, while standing next to President Vladimir Putin, announced that the Russian Navy is deploying an aircraft carrier battle group to the Mediterranean.

According to Russian media sources, the naval battle group will be centered around the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov and will include 3 warship escorts, two of which are described as anti-submarine escorts. Additionally seven support ships, 40+ planes, and 10 helicopters will be deployed with the battle group.

This is the largest Russian naval deployment since the Russian Navy deployed in 1999 in response to the Kosovo conflict, which was the only major Russian Navy deployment since the end of the cold war of this size. The deployment of this battle group represents a major undertaking by the Russian Navy. In a way, we see this deployment as representative of the past, present, and future of the Russian Navy.

For perspective, the condition of the Russian Fleet was considered so deteriorated only a decade ago that it was legitimate to assume the entire fleet would eventually be scrapped. To deploy the 4 warships and 7 support ships, the Russian Navy appears to be pulling from the Northern, Black, and Baltic fleets. At present this would appear to represent the maximum power projection capability of the Russian Navy, and considering the Russian Navy budget is focused on building strategic ballistic missile submarines, it appears it may represent the high end of power projection for the next several years.

The naval battle group will sail down the Norwegian coast and pass west of Great Britain before passing through the Strait of Gibraltar where it will conduct exercises in the Mediterranean until February of 2008.

6th Fleet Focus: Russian Submarines Training Off Norway

Yesterday we got word that Norway was deploying its Ula class submarines towards the Barents Sea to observe Russian Navy activity. Scanning the Russian papers the only Russian Navy activity discussed over the past few months in the Northern Fleet had been CV operations, which in itself is a rare thing. Today however, we get word of increased Russian submarine training for the Northern Fleet off the Norwegian coast.

Sources in the Norwegian Armed Forces confirm that Russian submarines have intensified training activities in areas outside the Norwegian coast. Orion aircrafts have dropped listening equipment to find the vessel.

According to Aftenposten, the Norwegian Armed Forces do not want to comment on the information. However, Deputy Defence Minister Espen Barth Eide confirms that Russia has stepped up military activities in the North both in the air and under water. He also confirms that the Russian subs have operated in “sensitive areas” along the coast. He does still not want to dramatize the situation. -They are not doing anything illegal. They want to signal that they are interested in important areas and that they have military capacities, he says.

The submarine activities come amid a surge in Russian military flying in the area. According to Aftenposten, the Norwegian Air Force has identified 74 Russian aircrafts the last half year.

Russia currently has about 20 submarines in operation in the Northern Fleet, based on several sites along the Kola Peninsula.

The Norwegian's have their hands full. Most of the modernizations of the Ula class have been central to operating in warmer climates and features to enhance the submarines performance during long patrols. The advantage of the Norwegians however is they are very well trained.

While conditions are much different than the cold war, it should be noted there are several territorial claims in the region not recognized by the other side. This can lead to tense moments, as it can be perceived that one side is in fact in violation of the others territory. So much for that "Law of the Sea" thing in dealing with territorial claims...

For the most part, the disputes since the end of the cold war have been limited to illegal fishing, but with increased military activity there are reasons to be concerned. Given the recent *cough* subpar *cough* record of Russian submarine safety, the potential for accidents is already high, a bit of cat and mouse off the Norwegian coast can be both a good and dangerous thing.

6th Fleet Focus: Sending the Subs to the Barents Sea

The Russian Navy is apparently very active in the Barents Sea, so much so that Norway has shifted its submarine operations north to monitor the situation.

Russian vessels have the last months on several occasions operated outside the Norwegian coast, and Norwegian authorities have now requested an explanation from Russia.

After a decade of low activities in the Barents Sea, the area is now again becoming the playground for navy interests. In a reportage from Norwegian broadcaster NRK today, Norwegian Navy officials confirm that Russian war ships the last months have stepped up activities along the Norwegian coast, and that sonar has been used against Norwegian submarines.

The Russian offensive now spurs increased Norwegian submarine activities in the region, NRK reports.

The irony of this report, it comes on the heels of Norway's Defense Review 07 report, which in part suggests canceling the Skjold-class because they are considered too expensive.

The backbone of Norway’s national defense is in danger of being decimated through budget cuts by fiscally frugal governments, warns Gen. Sverre Diesen, the chief of the country’s military.

His “alarm call” was issued in Oslo during the Nov. 6 presentation of the military’s long-anticipated Defense Study 07 to government officials, led by Defense Minister Anne-Grete Strøm-Erichsen. The study covers proposed reforms, reorganization and procurements planned for 2009-12.

“Unless the defense budget maintains pace with inflation, I fear that very little will be left of Norway’s national defense capability as we know it today,” Diesen said. “There is a political determination to gradually reduce national defense and defense spending.”

Reduced funding for Defense? Check. Increase in Russian military activity in your neighborhood? Check. Does anyone honestly believe these two things aren't in part related? I have a feeling if Norway had a stronger military, if they had submarines that weren't as old as most Russian submarines, or if Norway actually had a fleet of Skjold-class boats Russia would not be playing naval games so close to Norway.

The Russian papers have briefly covered some of the naval maneuvers in the North, specifically citing carrier aircraft training. Russia is finally able to afford actual carrier aircraft takeoffs and landings, and the Адмирал флота Советского Союза Кузнецов could be conducting flight deck operations.

This is good timing for the Russian Navy. For the most part, the US is focused on the Pacific and Indian Oceans, while NATO is focused on Africa. Both SNMG1 and SNMG2 have crossed the Suez canal over the last month, while the Dutch, Danes, and Germans are all preparing for forward operations east of the Suez in 2008.

Which raises the questions, who is guarding the back door? Looking around NATO, you find the Germans focused on the Baltic Sea, The British are engaged in 2 wars and already stretched thin, the French are focused on the Med, the Dutch are basically the reserve force, and the Danes are looking to be expeditionary. That basically leaves the Atlantic Fleet, which is already operating all over the South Atlantic, the Med, and forward deployed to the Middle East.

It raises a few points. It sure would be nice if Canada had an operating submarine force, and with the shift of forces to the Pacific, the US Navy Atlantic fleet has yet another, at least traditional, role to play in its theater. When you think about it though, it will not be easy for the US Navy to maintain a presence in the North Atlantic with a submarine if the numbers reduce too much though. Demand for US submarines is up, not only for Strike Group escort, but also for operations off Africa and the Middle East, and soon to be in the Caribbean sea when Venezuela starts operating new submarines from Russia.

The Russian budget does not appear to provide funding for major overseas deployments, so expect a lot more Russian Naval activity off Norway as this represents the most likely area of operation for the Russian fleet when training the Northern Fleet.

6th Fleet Focus: African Partnership Initiative (API) Indirectly Influences

There are some interesting events taking place in Nigeria, what I would call early returns, but would more accurately be described as indirect side effects of the African Partnership Initiative (API). There has been a lot of build up to this, but in the trends I am watching I am seeing a lot of coincidence in the focus of the US in the region and the efforts coming out of Nigeria in aspects of security.

The Nigerian Navy has so far arrested no fewer than 260 ships and barges allegedly involved in illegal bunkering of the nation's crude products.

Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral Ganiyu Adekeye, disclosed this in Abuja yesterday at the Nigerian NEWSWORLD Leadership Forum, stressing that the nation's waters is a very complex one.

The naval chief, however, absolved the navy from alleged sharp practices in the nation's seaports, noting that the navy does not control ships in the ports.

"It is the function of the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA). The navy has been removed from the port since 1988. What we do is random checks," Admiral Adekeye said.

The big change we are seeing in Nigeria is a fight against government corruption. There are some zero tolerance policies that are starting to have an effect within the security infrastructure, which started in the Army but is now trickling into other aspects of the government. Mostly this leads to arrests, but there have been some 'mysterious' deaths of suspected corrupt high ranking officials as well. This is a change originating from somewhere in the background, empowered by something not seen in the media, and in evaluation I think what we might be seeing is the indirect influence of Nigeria's economic partners on the Nigerian governments priorities. Like I said, indirectly it appears the African Partnership Initiative (API) is paving the way for change.

The CNS also endorsed the presence of the United States marines in the Gulf of Guinea, stressing that the US has interest all over the world.

He said that the US marines' presence in the Gulf of Guinea would help combat global terrorism.

Adekeye also said that the US buys much of the nation's crude oil products and needs to protect their ships.

The CNS said that so many of the nation's ships have been reactivated in the past two years.

He said that the fleet renewal is aimed at making Nigeria a naval power.

Besides the refurbishing of the ships, he also hinted that the first set of new fleet of ships would arrive the country in June, next year.

Naval power, new ships, arrests, engagement, and assistance. Nigeria is in the early stages of something new to them, the western economic interests and governments are there, not only in the form of military, police, and Coast Guard, but in "full spectrum" assistance ranging from government to military to non governmental. This is what was missing in Iraq, this is an excellent approach to insure preventing regional tensions in the future, but most importantly it is a mechanism for building trust and breaking down the stigma's of the United States in a region that it is important to the United States. Watching Nigeria the last several weeks is like watching scenario's unfold straight out Thomas P.M. Barnett's books, as it is becoming very clear economic interests are driving policy and action.

This approach requires a lot of patience though, these early signs in the first weeks are noteworthy, but results will be measured in years.

6th Fleet Focus: African Partnership Initiative Stigma and Hypocrisy

The African Partnership Initiative (API) has begun in the Gulf of Guinea region, and Eagle1 has an outstanding summery up well worth reading in full. When I read it, I called up a doctor friend of mine who volunteers in Sao Tome & Principe in dealing with HIV/AIDS.

His organization will be working with the API, but he says not every western NGO has stepped up yet.

He made an interesting point. In that area there is a stigma from people regarding others with AIDS, and it leads to people with AIDS not getting treatments because they don't want others to know they have it.

He sees some of the other NGOs demonstrating the same stigma towards the API. While all the NGOs are trying to breakdown the stigma of AIDS, he sees some of the NGOs in hypocrisy because of their stigma over the US military.

For an example of the stigma, the media recently reported on it.

When Maria (not her real name) took the brave step of speaking to the media in Sao Tome about her HIV-positive status, she had no idea what she was letting herself in for.

Although she had her back turned to the cameras, her voice was not disguised and it did not take long for people in her community to identify her. "After that, everyone knew it was me - at least, they thought it was me," she told IRIN/PlusNews.

The stigma attached to being HIV positive in the tiny twin-island state of Sao Tome and Principe is huge. No one living with the virus has so far gone public about his or her status, and health workers say that discrimination presents the biggest challenge to curbing the spread of the epidemic.

"This is our biggest problem at the moment. If we don't start accepting that AIDS is a normal disease like others, we are going to make things even harder," said Dr Alzira do Rosario, coordinator of Sao Tome's national AIDS programme.

That story makes his point clear as day. Westerners think they can preach removing stigma's from AIDS when they are struggling with their own stigma of the military involvement in the African Partnership Initiative. Read Eagle1's summery; he takes those pinheaded hypocritical fools to task, rightfully so. API may be enabled by military power, but ultimately it is a humanitarian and security service that the region is in desperate need of.

The use of soft power enabled by military power is critical in dealing with security and humanitarian issues in troubled regions in the 21st century, but the distaste of too many regarding involvement of the DoD in anything, period, is a major hurdle in leveraging this soft power. Programs like Global Fleet Stations are designed to be a counterweight to disruptive influences in impoverished places like Africa, supplying order and opportunity through safety and security initiatives in places overrun by corruption and lawlessness enabled by violence. Overcoming that western stigma is one of the major hurdle of implementing the "Safety and Security" aspect of the new 21st Century Cooperative Maritime Strategy of the 21st century.