The Mistral Sale and the Russian Information War on Georgia

On December 1, 2009, the Center of Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST) in Moscow published a collection of essays about the August 2008 Russia-Georgia conflict. The report is written in Russian so it is unlikely to be widely disseminated, but for English readers, the Jamestown Foundation has a two part summary of the report up (Part 1 and Part 2). The report is well done, although any who read the original Russian report will find plenty to quibble about.

The two part series at Jamestown Foundation is a good primer for the ongoing discussions of the Mistral amphibious ship sale to Russia, because there is a new twist in the sale that is directly related to Georgia.

You have probably heard by now how France has come up with a number of reasons how they justify the deal, beginning with the need to better integrate Russia with Europe. The French ambassador to the UN will not even discuss the subject with reporters there who ask questions, and there is no sign from the government that France considers the issue subject to influence from other nations. Russia also faces internal pressure regarding the sale from those who believe the industry needs the work. It is true, but the Russian government apparently has no faith in the shipbuilding sector in Russia right now. It is still unclear how the Mistral deal will help the Russian shipbuilding sector, but improving procedures and modernizing the shipyards is considered one aspect of the Mistral deal.

Meanwhile the Mistral deal is reportedly set for March according to some Russian officials, but there is more to the deal than meets the eye and the deal is not a sure thing. As it turns out, the Mistral deal is part of a larger Russian information war against Georgia.

First Caucasian Channel began broadcasting on Eutelsat’s new W7 satellite on January 15th, and it only took 2 days for Russia to complain about the channel. The channel was created by the Public Television of Georgia earlier this year with a main objective "to bring truth to peoples in North Caucasus - to Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan as well as to Russian republics in the Caucasus that fight against the Kremlin's armed forces." The channel was taken off the air after being up for less than two weeks. The station was intended to run a few weeks as a test before a long term contract for the channel with Eutelsat would begin on January 31st. The reason the station was taken off line was originally said to be technical in nature, but Eutelsat no longer says it is a technical issue, rather claiming the trial period has now expired.

On January 27 Le Figaro ran an article suggesting the reason the channel was taken down was Russia. "Eutelsat is under strong pressure from Russia to break its contract with Georgia," asserted a diplomat in Tbilisi on Tuesday. The operator Eutelsat is about to give in to the Kremlin, "which would be very serious" and, according to the Georgian diplomat, "akin to political censorship" the Le Figaro article says.

Gia Chanturia, general director of the Georgian Public Broadcasts was in Paris this weekend seeking answers from Eutelsat and French government officials. He is unlikely to like what the French tell him, because my sources both in Washington, DC and Paris have confirmed that Moscow has made cancellation of the First Caucasian Channel by Eutelsat a condition of the Mistral sale.

While I am sure there are still negotiations ahead, it is noteworthy the French government is indeed entertaining this condition of the sale - as no contract has been signed.

And that leads me back to the CAST publication. The paper leaves an impression of political and military equilibrium between Russia and Georgia, but I either misunderstood or stand in strong disagreement with that conclusion. There is no balance between Russia and Georgia as a result of the August 2008 war, and just as the United States did nothing for Georgia when Russia had troops on Georgian soil, do not expect the United States to stand up for Georgia now. The suggestion there is some sense of balance between Russia and Georgia is a myth, whether presumed, implied, or created; and the Mistral deal with all of its conditions serves as a visible reminder of that reality.

As we watch Russia leverage their unequal national power to influence France, keep an eye on eastern European countries like Poland. This will get bigger than Russia, Georgia, and France before it is all over, and the potential for long term consequences in Eastern Europe is not trivial. It is noteworthy that foreign military sales reform is an issue in the 2010 QDR. The details of FMS will be important, because it may turn out to be the difference between our allies in Eastern Europe buying quality military equipment from the US - or seeking vast quantities of military equipment from elsewhere.

Just saying... France may trust Russia, but countries like Ukraine and Poland do not. The FMS issue in the US and the Mistral deal between Russia and France will insure that Foreign Military Sales is an enormous topic in 2010 - something I discussed in the first edition of Midrats.

(Speaking of Midrats, tune in Sundays 5:00pm - today's guest is Mackenzie Eaglen on the QDR)

Naval War Warning in the Black Sea

You don't see this every day.

The leader of the pro-Moscow breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia said Wednesday he had ordered its military to destroy any Georgian ship violating its de-facto sea borders.

"I have given the order to our naval forces to destroy Georgian ships infringing the sea border of Abkhazia," Sergei Bagapsh told the Interfax news agency in an interview.

"This step has been caused by the constant acts of piracy from the Georgian side," he added.

There have been increased tensions over Georgia's bid to enforce a naval blockade of Abkhazia after it seized last month a Turkish ship carrying fuel from Turkey to the Abkhaz capital Sukhumi.

The order appears to be a reaction to a Georgian court sentencing a Turkish ship captain to 24 years in jail for sailing his freighter to Abkhazia without Tbilisi’s consent. Georgia has been siezing ships attempting to trade with Abkhazia, basically applying a blockade on the territory, requiring ships to get permission before trading.

Kommersant reported the news in Russia like this:

Abkhazia is ready to use force against Georgia's ships in the Black Sea, with Russia's support, after Georgia arrested and escorted to its ports several vessels going to and from Abkhazia last month.

"We have no choice but to capture Georgian ships," Abkhazian Foreign minister Sergei Shamba said. Abkhazia has secured Moscow's support, as Russia has to protect Abkhazian ships in its territorial waters under a bilateral agreement on joint border control.

"Until recently the land border between Georgia and Abkhazia was in the political spotlight. But the situation on the sea now requires interference as well," Shamba added.

This year, Georgian coast guard arrested 23 vessels for "violation of the rules for entering the waters of invaded territories." They confiscate the cargo and impose a large fine on the vessel's owner, and if the owner fails to pay on time, they confiscate the ship for the country's benefit and sell it at an auction.

A source in Russia's Federal Border Service confirmed the commitment of the security service's coast guard department to ensure, jointly with Abkhazian colleagues, safe passage of all ships entering or leaving Abkhazia's waters.

"Georgia arrests ships in neutral waters, which is piracy under any laws, or in the territorial waters of Abkhazia, which is recognized by Russia as an independent state. Russia is also the guarantor of its safety. I hope the Georgian authorities have enough sense to avoid making more errors similar to those they committed on land last summer," the source said, expressing hope that the parties concerned would not go as far as sea battles.

"Russia's actions would be viewed as piracy," reacted Temuri Yakobashvili, Georgia's deputy prime minister and minister for reintegration. "Delivering freight to Abkhazia by sea without Georgia's permit violates Georgian law," he added.

Georgia will try to prevent Russian ships from entering national waters, which is fraught with a dangerous conflict, or will have to make concessions, said Irakly Sesiashvili, a Georgian military analyst, adding that these actions would "in any case hit Georgia's economy, as Russian coast guard boats in our waters would scare private companies away from the port of Poti".

This can turn into a lopsided conflict quickly if Russia gets involved. The Georgian Coast Guard is tiny, and the Georgian Navy was disbanded following the war last year.

I have not been tracking vessels as closely as I used to, but USS Porter (DDG 78) was in the Mediterranean Sea a week ago. Not sure if she was heading down to fight pirates though.

Russia & Georgia Resume Their Deadly Dance

Right on cue, Moscow terminates the UN and OSCE observer missions in Georgia and ratchets up the pressure on T'blisi and the Russian near abroad.

Russia Does Soft Power, Too

The Telegraph reports some of the efforts of Russia to reassert its influence in its former republics:

The Kremlin quickly recognized the importance of [Moldovan President] Voronin’s regime to Russia’s interests and worked hard to deny support to those who might challenge him from the West. In Georgia, Moscow is provid-ing nonintrusive, soft-power support such as extensive media coverage to the array of opposition groups that seek to dethrone Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.

With the Ukraine presidential election due in six months, Moscow has no preferred candidate among the two most likely to reach the sec-ond round - Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych.

It will not repeat the mistakes of its 2004 embrace of Yanukovych. The message from the Kremlin is: “We support pro-Russian positions, not candidates, and we will judge by deeds, not campaign promises.”

And arguably, they're doing it better than we are. Watch for an uptick in Russian efforts in Ukraine as elections get closer, and a spike if the results don't go Moscow's way.

Report: Ossetia, Georgia Trade Gunfire

The AP is reporting that shots were fired last night in both directions across the administrative border between Ossetia and Georgis.

Russian Army Repositions 25 Miles from T'bilisi

From the AP.

Russia has stationed its forces just 25 miles (40 kilometers) from the Georgian capital, in violation of the EU-brokered cease-fire that ended last year's brief war. And in recent weeks, it has sent even more troops and armored vehicles to within striking distance of the city ahead of street protests against Georgia's president.

Just in case you missed it, the Black Sea Fleet deployed 22 ships last week, including 3-4 amphibious ships with Marines.

Other news is reporting the protests against the Georgian President were 10,000 strong on Tuesday. With tomorrow being a big day for China, one wonders if Russia will invade Georgia. After all, they did it last time there was a big day in China, the opening day of the Olympics.

From where the Russian Army is, it is a 40 minute drive to the Georgian capitol. See previous analysis here.

I have no idea if Russia will actually do it, but I don't see anyone stepping in to stop them if they do.

Russia Deploys the Black Sea Fleet

Russia has sent an official notification to NATO’s general secretary, Hoop Scheffer, proposing that "all upcoming military exercises planned in Georgia should be postponed or canceled.”

On any other day of the year, I would read news article discussing a disagreement between NATO and Russia regarding Black Sea naval activity and dismiss it, but this isn't an average day. Earlier this week, as per the agreement between Russia and the Ukraine, Russian officials notified the Ukraine that 22 of its Black Sea Fleet vessels will leave Sevastopol for military maneuvers. Those ships were expected to depart earlier this week, but it was noteworthy when all of the amphibious ships deployed first rather than all of the ships at once.

The Black Sea Fleet has now deployed all 22 ships, which is getting some attention in the region because regional news reports have noted the Russian military exercises taking place in the Caucasus since the political turmoil and protests began last week in Georgia. There has been a lot of discussion over the past several days, mostly unverified hearsay and internet chatter, of movement of Russian troops towards the Russian-Georgian border and into Abkhazia as part of those exercises. Those rumors were confirmed today when an EU monitor told Reuters "it had registered Russian reinforcements at the boundaries between Georgian-controlled territory and South Ossetia and Abkhazia."

A confidential assessment compiled by EU diplomats in Georgia and seen by Reuters said the Russian reinforcements included tanks, armoured personnel carriers, artillery and "Grad" multiple-rocket launchers.

"Thus the situation at the ABL (administrative boundary line) remains in flux and volatile as Russian/South Ossetian forces continue to establish new facts on the ground," said the the assessment, dated April 13.

This afternoon, the Eurasia Daily Monitor also noted the chatter in the region, and weighed in on the unfolding events.

It is important that the Russian military acknowledges its mobilization and forward deployment of troops and ships. At present, it is impossible to know precisely how many additional army units have been moved within striking distance of Georgian territory. However, the composition of the naval force that disembarked from Sevastopol is not secret, since the Ukrainian authorities must be informed. It seems to be larger than the force that was deployed against Georgia last August. Four large amphibious landing craft left Sevastopol last week, while in August 2008 only two were reportedly deployed to insert a regiment of marines into Abkhazia in the small port of Ochamchira, close to the border with Georgia (Vlast, August 18). The marines were later deployed in the invasion of Western Georgia.

The report goes on to note:

After the war, Georgia disbanded its navy, handing over its surviving ships to the local coast guard. The Russian naval flotilla lead by "Moskva" will not find any opposition at sea, but the deployment of a large amphibious force formed of thousands of marines armed with heavy weapons on board is a threatening sight. The low capacity narrow roads leading from Russia into Georgia (one into Abkhazia and another leading into South Ossetia) create immense logistical problems in rapidly deploying large military contingents into Georgia if Moscow opts for a "humanitarian intervention" to bring about "regime change." The insertion of a sizable marine force with heavy weapons was used last August to bypass the clogged up overland routes and this could prove important again. The Russian military knew beforehand the exact timing of its pre-arranged invasion and fully controlled the pre-war armed provocations by the South Ossetian forces, whereas in the present crisis the situation is much more volatile.

The Jamestown Foundation's Pavel Felgenhauer has a fantastic record when it comes to observing military activity in that region. Just prior to the breakout of hostilities last year, he wrote an article regarding the Russian railroad troops that had completed to connect Russia with Abkhazia. These railroads were used within 10 days of his article to supply the Russian military forces that moved into that territory, thus removing Georgian rule. Last month he noted that with spring melting the snow and ice that prohibits any military activity between Russia and Georgia, Russia's political influence into Georgia was sure to follow. He was right.

Russia's intentions are unclear. On the same day Russia tells NATO to cancel military exercises, Russia also agrees to hold a fifth round of Geneva talks involving negotiators from Georgia, Russia, United States, and the breakaway regions of Abkhazia, and South Ossetia on May 18-19.

There is widespread belief that Russia helped finance the demonstrations that began April 9th, but it is noteworthy those demonstrations have become smaller and smaller each day. After a week of demonstrations, polls indicated the public mood was shifting away from the opposition, and Saakashvili remains the most popular politician in Georgia despite the protests and well funded media campaigns against him. Many experts appear to be in agreement the calls for his resignation have failed, and this will end in negotiations. To date, the opposition has dismissed any suggestion of sitting down with Saakashvili, so it is unclear when those negotiations will happen.

Given that the Russian funded political unrest with demonstrations has failed to achieve its goals, would Russia take military action instead?

It seemed very unlikely war would break out last August on the opening day of the Olympics. Russia may not be making a move against Georgia, but this is one of the largest Black Sea Fleet exercises we have seen in a long time, and the EU is monitoring large troop movements at the border at the same time, so even without a fire there is plenty of smoke.

The Turkish Perspective at Sea of the Georgia-Russia War

Devrim Yaylali published an interesting article from the Turkish perspective regarding the Naval activity associated with the Georgia-Russia war last year. The article is in the December issue of Warship International Fleet Review magazine, but he also has a copy on his blog.

The article is great, the pictures are fantastic, and by the way you 'Guardians' might want to check out Devrim's blog banner. Personally speaking, the USCGC Dallas (WHE 716) looks really cool with Turkey in the background in that banner.

I recommend Warship IFR, as if anyone cares..., for those who are looking for good periodical content that looks global as opposed to US centric. For example, in the January 2009 the article by Usman Ansari regarding the naval face-off between Bangladesh and Burma over natural resources off the shores of both countries is another example where serious events are happening at sea, but those issues and events are often under the radar in the US media until they explode.

USS Barry Port Visit to Poti

The USS Barry (DDG 52) arrived in Poti over the weekend instead of move with the other ships of SNMG-2 towards Somalia. Below is the Russian news report of the ships arrival.

The ship would have departed port today. It will be interesting to see if USS Barry (DDG 52) rejoins SNMG2 once the USS Leyte Gulf (CG 55) arrives in the Mediterranean Sea.

H/T Russian Naval Blog

China Forces the Diplomatic Option

Like we always say, SCO runs through Shanghai, not Moscow. Put the cold war on ice, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is not the WARSAW PACT.

China and several Central Asian nations rebuffed Russia's hopes of international support for its actions in Georgia, issuing a statement Thursday denouncing the use of force and calling for the respect of every country's territorial integrity.

A joint declaration from the six-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization also offered some support for Russia's "active role in promoting peace" following a cease-fire, but overall it appeared to increase Moscow's international isolation.

Now Russia has choices, they can change tone and start talking to the rest of the world instead of at the rest of the world, or they can also shrug it off and dig a hole to isolation. Without any help, the suggestion that Russia can wave the magic pipeline is an empty threat, Russia needs the revenue as much as Europe needs the oil.

There are still several ways Russia can accomplish its goals without disconnecting itself from Europe and the west, but the first question is whether they want to. The second question is whether the United States will push for ideological resolutions instead of strategic resolutions.

The political atmosphere surrounding this is still a mess, and with Europe and the US taking a hard line regarding the potential independence of the two breakaway provinces, it is time for everyone to recalculate. Is Georgia better off without the 2 provinces? Neither has been part of the national economic system anyway, and what we are talking about here has more to do with geography than governance.

Russia needs the west to accept the independence of two breakaway provinces pretty bad right now, too bad there is no government for the west to recognize. Good news for Russia though, serious cooperation in regards to Iran while they stand up a couple of democratic governments could go a long way towards Russia achieving its objectives. Democracy doesn't happen over night, if Russia sets up a couple democracies, which could take a year, and works with the west over that time period towards stopping Iranian nuclear development, I'd say there is a good bargain for both sides to be made.

Yes, I would trade recognition of Russia's military actions as legitimate and recognize two new independent democracies to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons. That is a diplomatic deal, a strategic choice, worth making.

In the Spirit of Halsey

Think you are up to date with events taking place in the Black Sea? I thought I was, but now I'm not so sure...

The U.S. embassy in Tbilisi on Tuesday retracted a statement saying a U.S. destroyer and another ship were headed for the Georgian port city of Poti, where Russian forces are deployed.

"We cannot now confirm that U.S. ships will be travelling to Poti," embassy spokesman Stephen Guice said.

Guice had earlier said the USS McFaul, a destroyer, and another U.S. ship, the Dallas coast guard cutter, were to arrive Wednesday in the strategic Black Sea port.

Where is the USS McFaul (DDG 74)?

The world wonders.

For pictures of the humanitarian operation, Chuck Simmons of the North Shore Journal has a photo album up on Flickr. Good stuff.

Breaking: Moskva Scrambles Back to Sea - Updated

Interesting breaking news coming from Russia. Apparently after returning to port on August 23rd, the Moskva went back to sea today sailing from Sevastopol to Novorossiisk. Why? The article details some new events off the coast of Georgia. (translation mine)

Deputy Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces Colonel General Anatoly Nogovitsyn told reporters that there are nine NATO ships off the coast of Georgia. Among them, two U.S. ships, one Spanish, German, and Polish ship, and four Turkish ships. "This increases the degree of tension in the region," - the General stressed.

So much for NATO exercises, looks like NATO has other plans first. This is the first report we have seen regarding the Turkish Navy acting in response to the conflict.

There are no details regarding which four Turkish warships are there, but the other ships would be the SPS Juan de Borbon (F102), the Polish frigate ORP General K. Pulaski (272), the German frigate FGS Lubeck (F214), the US Navy destroyer USS McFaul (DDG 74), and the USCGC Dallas (WHBC 716).

Will be interesting to see if this is just Russian crap media reporting, of which I have read a lot this month, or confirmed by other western media reporting.

Updated: Confirmed, Reuters is also reporting that the Moskva will conduct weapon testing.

He Who Has the Biggest Gun

A sign of things to come. If you go to Georgia, bring your bullets because you may need them.

A truce between Russia and Georgia has failed to open up the conflict zone to much-needed emergency supplies, aid agencies and EU officials said Thursday, as UN staff were held up by armed gunmen.

The United Nations workers were ambushed in the Georgian city of Gori before having their vehicles stolen, an official said, adding that the area was not yet considered safe enough for aid workers to operate in.

Robert Watkins, UN resident coordinator for Georgia, told AFP two UN-marked cars were taken by "paramilitary" gunmen after security officials doing a safety assessment there were stopped at gunpoint.

We are thinking if the Americans go to Georgia, they won't be fighting Russia, but there will be some fighting. Russia will use the paramilitary forces in the provinces for a proxy war.

And it is a safe bet those guys won't be withdrawing, after all, according to the law they are Georgians, and don't have to.

All Ahead Slow

We are observing a number of actions on both sides that we think are worth analysis, but we are going to slow down a bit and let events develop.

The cease-fire is enabling better press coverage from inside Georgia, and there is evidence the International Red Cross and other international agencies are out collecting information that will be useful for analysis of what has happened, and what is happening.

With the Navy being given the green light, we are about to observe the first major US Navy operation since the 2005 Tsunami. That may not sound like much to those not familiar with that story, but it is. These events will further shape the way we look at military power strategically.

For the second time in the 21st century, the United States is about to exercise military power in a major way other than war, but instead of confronting the challenge of a natural disaster, this time the confrontation is with a military power exercising political control. Is this a military mission? In the 21st century, yes.

But not in your traditional way. This is the perfect example why military strategy is incomplete when it focuses only on the duties of conducting war. This is not a peacekeeping mission, peacekeeping is what nations do when the UN asks them to fill space between wars. This scenario, the full spectrum multi-agency option other than war, logistically supported by the tools of war, is what we mean when we use the world peacemaking in 21st century strategy.

This is the black dot in the white side of the Yin Yang. This will be interesting.

The Powers Exercise Power

Russia loves the conditions of the cease-fire, mostly because they got everything they wanted, and Georgia was given the opportunity to survive. Interesting video from Gori highlights what Russia means by implementing "additional security measures."

Sarkozy is only clever if the west is able to capitalize on the cease-fire. Maybe that was the plan, the C-17 landed almost immediately and as if it was orchestrated.

Also looks like 4 ships returned to Sevastopol. That article has some choice words for Ukraine's new policy on Black Sea Fleet movements. Essentially Russia is saying we have a bi-lateral treaty. and Ukraine can't change the terms.

Press Reporting From the Black Sea

From today.

Also see photo's from the combat zone here.

Press Report Details Battle in the Black Sea

One of the members of the crew of a ship in the Black Sea Fleet, upon his return to Sevastopol is interviewed by a reporter regarding the battle with Georgian cutters off of Abkhazia on 10 August. This is currently leading the kpunews in the Ukraine. The story suggests he is being interviewed by a kpunews reporter.

"We took up station guarding the opposed landing on the Abkhaz shore when all of a sudden four high speed targets were detected. We sent out an IFF signal and the targets didn't react. Receiving a command from the flagship, we got into formation and right at that moment the unidentified targets opened fire on the ship formation and flagship. The cruiser was damaged and a small fire broke out aboard. Then, fearing for seaworthyness, the flagship withdrew from the firing area." - the sailor said.

"Right then the small missile boats clearly fired," the participant continued. "Taking up position, our MRK launched a "Malakhit" (SS-N-9) anti-surface missile, which literally cut the lead ship, the "Tbilisi" to ribbons. After that, fire was shifted to the rest of the Georgian ships. Another ship was damaged, we couldn't finish it off, allowing it to leave the scene under its own power.

So the Moskva was apparently damaged in the attack and disengaged. She is certainly capable of destroying big ships, but the battle appears to highlight a weakness against small ships. The battle also tends to add credibility to what many have said, it is best to fight small ships at sea with small ships at sea.

The sailor goes on to say it took a minute and a half for the Georgian ship to sink in 300 meters of water. The article finishes with a note about the "Tbilisi" being previously sold to Georgia as the former Ukraine ship "Konotop".

Story about this story is also running in the Russian press here.

Black Sea Naval Update - Wednesday Edition

The Government of Georgia has put out a statement regarding Russian naval activity in the Black Sea. This is from the Minister of Foreign Affairs website.

Facts of aggression committed by the Russian Black Sea Fleet

The landing force consisted of 4000 military personnel, battle tanks and other military hardware have been disembarked by the Russian Black Sea Fleet vessels in port of Ochamchira. The personnel have advanced towards the Kodori Gorge and attacked territory controlled by the Georgian side, while the battle tanks and other military hardware have advanced towards Senaki;

The guided missile cruiser has committed missile attack on Kodori;

On August 12 at 17.00-18.00 saboteurs have mined and exploded Border Police Coast Guard vessels that were not of military purpose. The Coast Guard vessels granted to Georgia by friendly countries in 1993 being in non operational condition were exploded as well.

The attack has been performed by 15-16 naval ships, including Guided Missile Cruiser "MOSKVA”, Landing Ship "Tsezar Kunikov” etc;

During communication with the captain of the port Poty vessel "Tsezar Kunikov” was using call-signes "BIGEL156”, "BIGEL159” etc.

I still don't understand how 3 Alligators landed 4000 troops. There had to be other ships, even all 7 amphibious ships combined in the Black Sea Fleet couldn't land 4000 troops and equipment to the beach, but the port facilities at Ochamchira are not very good.

The details of 4000 troops if true suggests a major sealift operation. How did Russia manage that if indeed they were simply 'reacting' to Georgia. Nobody just 'reacts' to military confrontation with an all out amphibious assault on a city with poor port facilities involving sealift with 4000 troops. Just doesn't happen that quickly.

Also note the mention of mines. War is ugly anyway, but mines at sea is very ugly.

H/T Gnolanuk

Russia's Divide and Conquer Strategy

Give credit to Russia, they have exercised power brilliantly, and the end game is near. While there are still media reports of sporadic fighting in Russia well after the cease-fire, the objectives of Russia have become clear. The politics will now decide whether the cease-fire holds.

Early in the conflict Putin and Bush exchanged words in China, prior to Putin flying off to the front lines to be the face of the conflict. Some have described the Medvedev-Putin relationship in this conflict as "good cop/bad cop." We think that relationship applies, but not in a conventional way. We see Medvedev as the good cop for Europe, and Putin as the bad cop for the US.

Based on Bush's actions following his meeting with Putin: staying in China... and Bush's inactions following that meeting: doing almost nothing for Georgia; Russia essentially had the green light to achieve all of its objectives. There will be no partial achievements here.

Russia's objectives from the beginning has been the insurance of Russian interests for South Ossetia and Abkhazia. We can only assume, based on Bush's press conference at the White House, that Bush expected Russia to fill in those regions with Russian troops and stop. We can also assume the administration did not believe Russia's tactical objectives included Senaki, Zugdidi, Gori, and Poti.

With these assumptions, and taking Russia at its word that the objectives are South Ossetia and Abkhazia, why then did Russia move on to these other tactical objectives? Furthermore, while Russia is established near all of the towns mentioned above, why has Russia stopped, set up defensive lines, and not occupied the cities themselves? How can we suggest that some sort of diplomatic effort factored into a cease fire where Russia ends up strategically positioned, dug in, and prepared to let loose its full force on the major cities in Georgia? One might imply instead that Russia positioned its forces exactly where they wanted them to be 'coincidently' before the cease fire was announced.

If Russia's strategic objective is South Ossetia and Abkhazia, then what is the purpose of the other territories Russia currently occupies? These represent Russian political concessions. No one can take them from Russia, and they can destroy the cities if their demands are not met. In other words, Russia can achieve exactly what they want, and if the west complies, Georgia gets to keep its country. If Georgia or the West doesn't comply? Georgia is destroyed further until the west accepts Russia's conditions. One should expect that one condition will be to validate Russian military action as legitimate.

All Russia needs is a broker. Enter France. This ran in the Russian press yesterday.

The US is not suited to the role of lead mediator in resolving the Georgian-Ossetian conflict. The statement was made by French Minister of Foreign and European Affairs Bernard Kouchner.

In Kouchner's opinion, the United States is actually part of the conflict, as it is present in Georgia and is equipping its armies, reports Channel 1.

Is it coincidence good cop Medvedev is ready to receive Sarkozy and work out a cease fire? We expect France to put forth a resolution of the conflict that puts the EU in charge of Georgia. This will insure Germany and France's position that Georgia should never join NATO, and will additionally give the EU a public victory in foreign policy and diplomacy. Russia gets its new provinces and legitimacy in its military action, while Georgia gets to survive, probably without regime change although the next election may not be kind to Saakashvili.

Where does that leave the US? The US has proven itself not to be factor in this entire affair, and that is not likely to change now. Georgia, a small country that joined the "coalition of the willing, " was left to the tender mercies of Russia thinking their friend the US would come. I'm sure the Chinese and Russians are ready to sell the script to other powers, and that script will sell.

Superpowers pay a high cost for action in the 21st century, but it is also true that superpowers pay a high cost of inaction in the 21st century. When Bush took the military option off the table, even if he never in a million years intended to actually use that option, he doomed Georgia. Russia hasn't given the United States a second thought since. The Bush Administration played poker with Putin, but did so with the cards face up on the table. We should expect results to reflect such a play.

When we say Russia's divide and conquer strategy, surely you didn't think we were talking about Georgia. Russia will use this incident to divide Europe and the US, there is humiliation coming for American inaction. The Russian exit strategy involves Europe throwing the US under the bus so Georgia can survive. It's Russia and France at the diplomatic table, what did you really expect? In that room, US interests finish last.

Black Sea Naval Update

The Telegraph is reporting a Russian warship is patrolling the Black Sea coastline around the port of Poti and was said by coastguard officials to be enforcing a 50-mile exclusion zone.

"We haven't tested what the Russians will do, so I suppose there is a blockade," said Alan Middleton, the port's British general manager, who is from Bristol.

The events of the last week have dealt a huge blow to confidence in the port, which handles metals and commodities transhipments to Central Asia, and in Georgia's wider economy.

"It is certainly force majeure for ship owners," Mr Middleton said.

Ukrainian news is running several stories about "a big Ukrainian ferry with 48 crew members on board [that] was blocked in the Georgian port of Poti." The Ukrainian government is working with Russia to allow for the ship to get to sea.