Links of the Day

Petty Tyranny by W. Thomas Webb. His wordpress blog is here, and his Tumblr site is here.

More so than any other naval affairs website out there, almost all of the content on those sites would fit right in on this blog.

George Friedman Talks Politics

STRATFOR doesn't really go there... but did this time. Worth a read.

Acquisition Lessons for Nerds

If you are a Star Wars nerd, which I will happily admit I was once upon a time... then the recently published article Don’t Come to the Dark Side, Acquisition Lessons from a Galaxy Far, Far Away (PDF) by Lt. Col. Dan Ward, USAF is for you.

Consider the implications of pop culture’s most notorious schedule overrun. In the Star Wars universe, robots are selfaware, every ship has its own gravity, Jedi Knights use the Force, tiny green Muppets are formidable warriors and a piece of junk like the Millennium Falcon can make the Kessel Run in less than 12 parsecs. But even the florid imagination of George Lucas could not envision a project like the Death Star coming in on time, on budget. He knew it would take a Jedi mind trick beyond the skill of Master Yoda to make an audience suspend that much disbelief.

The Danger Room write up is fantastic too. Seriously, that is a remarkably interesting article that exploits pop culture smartly to explain acquisition problems in the DoD.

Well done sir.

London Riots

Allister Heath has been on fire lately with his analysis of the London riots. Worth reading, Britain’s in crisis: the real causes of chaos on streets and From royal fairytale to banana republic.

I note this morning there is a very real discussion in the UK taking place of cutting off social media, including Blackberry Messenger. You do not get to that point in the UK unless governance policies have completely failed.

One common question I have seen pop up is whether these kinds of riots could happen in the US? I think the answer is - yes it could, but only in certain large cities, and it would look different.

In the UK a group can break into a liquor store and overpower the owner without much fear of injury. In the US there is an extra layer of deterrence because the liquor store owner might be waving his shotgun. In the UK many folks have been moved to a point where they have to hide in their own houses and apartments at night in fear. That is not how I remember the Korean population responding during the LA riots a few years ago.

I don't know how this scenario would play out in my upstate NY neighborhood, but I do know most of the men in my neighborhood, and I would bet there are as many guns in the 100 homes of my little neighborhood subdivision as there are in the local police station. I also think back to the area of Arkansas I grew up, and I believe the rules of engagement down there would be a lot less restrictive towards troublemakers - again reducing the odds of trouble among those who aren't suicidal.

The Many and the Few

Andrew Bacevich in Ballpark Liturgy: America's New Civic Religion. Worth reading.

The Must Reads of the Day

If you are unable to read past a few paragraphs before being distracted, these three articles are not for you. If you want to read three of the most interesting and informative articles published in the last few days, then these articles are for you.

How Digital Detectives Deciphered Stuxnet, the Most Menacing Malware in History By Kim Zetter and published by Wired Magazine is one of the most comprehensive stories of STUXNET I have seen. This is the story how researchers tracked down a cyber nuke.

The CIA's Secret Sites in Somalia by Jeremy Scahill and published by The Nation represents a much needed addition to the discussion regarding policy options the US exercises to fight terrorism. Regular readers of this blog will note that almost all of the stories being told have been covered in parts on ID, but the article gives much needed background and context to those stories. The reactions by some people to this article about it sharing secrets is remarkably silly, I think, because this base is the worst kept secret in Mogadishu. If you don't believe me, Google Mogadishu airport base or prison or whatever and look for yourself how "secret" this base really is... or better yet, subscribe to a private intelligence service that covers Somalia. This is a great article though.

Piracy | Floating Wrecks by Gayatri Jayaraman at LiveMint is a another great example of an article describing the ugly in Somalia. Unlike the very comprehensive Jeremy Scahill article, this is a story about real life prisons and the brutality of torture taking place to the over 500 hostages being held by pirates today.

Four Interesting Articles

If you didn't catch this Esquire Magazine piece by Thomas Barnett right before Christmas, you missed a good one. Credit the editor for giving the piece the title:

When China Ruled the World
Or why the "China Century" will be the shortest on record

There's a moment in part two of Quentin Tarantino's revenge epic, Kill Bill, in which legendary martial-arts master Pai Mei teaches the Bride how to exact her revenge by delivering the killer blows instantly and then waiting for her nemesis to drop. Pai Mei "hits you with his fingertips at five different pressure points on your body, and then lets you walk away. But once you've taken five steps, your heart explodes inside your body and you fall to the floor."

And the battle is over before it really begins.

Okay, a gruesome analogy, perhaps, but apt. I'm here to tell you that America plunged its fingertips into the Middle Kingdom's body politic across the 1970s, beginning with Nixon going to China in 1972 and culminating with Jimmy Carter's normalization of relations in 1979. The first embrace allowed aged Mao Tse-tung to extinguish his nonstop internal purge known as the Cultural Revolution by firewalling his fears of Soviet antagonism. The second cemented China's wary-but-increasingly-warm relationship with the United States and allowed Deng Xiaoping, who narrowly survived Mao's insanities, to dismantle the dead emperor's dysfunctional socialist model, quietly burying Marx with the most revolutionary of eulogies — to get rich is glorious!

Deng chose wisely: Reversing Mikhail Gorbachev's subsequent logic, he focused on the economics while putting off the politics. This decision later earned him the sobriquet "the butcher of Tiananmen" when, in 1989, the political expectations of students quickly outpaced the Party's willingness for self-examination. But it likewise locked China onto a historical pathway from which it cannot escape, or what I call the five D's of the dragon's decline from world-beater to world-benefactor: demographics, decrepitude, dependency, defensiveness, and — most disabling of all — democratization.

Let us begin this journey right where Deng did, with a focus on the family.

Continue reading at Esquire, a really interesting piece that reminds us China's window is closing sooner rather than later.

Also worth reading... the Lowy Institute has decided to take the rest of the year off, but not before they leave us with three items in a theme worth reading:

Three things I have changed my mind about this year by Rory Medcalf

1. India's prospects
2. Peace in East Asia
3. The limits of security engagement with China

Read the details here.

What have I changed my mind about this year? China in the Pacific by Jenny Hayward-Jones

I have for some time been relatively sanguine about the rise of China in the Pacific. I believed that, like most powers which engage with Pacific Island countries, China wanted a stable and prosperous Pacific region. Chinese trade, aid and investment in the Pacific were good if they created wealth and improved infrastructure. China's truce with Taiwan over the race for diplomatic recognition in the Pacific offered an opportunity for China to mature as a donor.

It is also vital for the Pacific to have access to a greater range of advice than that provided by Australia and New Zealand, and to have advice from other developing countries. China provides an alternative development model that offers some useful lessons for decision-makers in Pacific Islands.

But I am no longer convinced that China is a force for good in the Pacific:

Her analysis is worth reading in full.

What have I changed my mind about this year? China's naval build-up by Sam Roggeveen

Hugh White has already written about China's growing maritime assertiveness in 2010, but there's also the question of hardware. It's barely two-and-a-half months ago that I wrote a blog post which described China's naval modernisation as 'methodical' and 'modest'. I even used the phrase 'slow and steady' in the headline, and threw in a picture of the tortoise and the hare to drive home the point.

But the evidence that has emerged since that time — mainly from Chinese military-themed blogs and forums — throws that characterisation into serious doubt.

The rest can be read here.

Busy Busy

Very busy today as holiday season comes quickly, so I'll leave you with only a few items randomly throughout the day.

But. This is the best article written today, and I encourage everyone to read it, and think about it.

Interesting Reads

Good article here on Ri Yong Ho, General Staff of the Korean People's Army, North Koreas top military officer.

Responsible Transition: Securing U.S. Interests in Afghanistan Beyond 2011, authored by CNAS Senior Advisor and Senior Fellow Lieutenant General David Barno and Fellow Andrew Exum, lays out a strategy for the post-July 2011 phase of U.S. and NATO efforts in Afghanistan, defines the U.S. troop presence and commitment beyond 2014, and offers operational and strategic guidance for protecting U.S. and allied long-term interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Also an interesting response to the paper by Joshua Foust.

In 2005 Tim O’Reilly and John Battelle put together the original Web 2.0 Conference and broadly disseminated the idea that "the network as platform" means more than just "software as a service;" it means building applications that literally get better the more people use them, harnessing network effects not only to acquire users, but also to learn from them and build on their contributions. Now they are looking at the next 5 years - making this a great read.

This news from DoD Buzz just makes me angry. Let me get this straight, the priorities of the Department of Homeland Security under President Obama is for high tech TSA screenings at transportation hubs across the country and Wal-Mart monitors that have shoppers casting suspicion on one another, but they can't afford the Offshore Patrol Cutter program intended to replace the very old, expensive, and falling apart USCG Cutter force? The average age of the current USCG Cutter force over 65' is 41 years! The entire OPC program for 25 cutters is $8.1 billion and the money is spread out over several years (see CRS Report (PDF)). Next time there is a Hurricane Katrina type event, I don't know if there will be much left of the Coast Guard to save your ass on the rooftop, but at least DHS is providing more TVs to loot in Wal-Mart. Janet Napolitano needs to be fired, but like President Bush, President Obama seems to share the flaw of being incapable of addressing his poor appointments.

Once I figure out how to write about Wikileaks on the blog without causing folks any trouble, I'll be talking about the Brazil fighter deal in more detail. See the latest from Defense News.

Excellent Blogging

Captain Martin's blog post over at the USNI blog discussing the activities of the pirated ship take down yesterday is fascinating. I read it understanding it is a single instrument in the blue/green symphony involved in the action.

Wouldn't it be great to read Captain Bolt's observations in a similar way? I would, but I also understand he probably won't have time to contribute such observations until after the deployment. Just saying - it would be the kind of content to make that blog more interesting.

One final thought. Where does activity this fit into the discussion regarding the future of the Marine Corps? Forced entry boarding operations are a historical role of the US Marines, and yet not an activity of the US Marines discussed. I find it interesting how often the 21st century looks like the 19th century - both strategically and tactically.

The Reading List

The thing about Jeffery Goldberg is that he has a pretty incredible black book of sources. This is long, and worth reading in full.

There are two articles on the Air Sea Battle Doctrine Concept out. One in Proceedings, the other in Air-Force Magazine. The comments by ADM Willard at the end of the AF Mag are noteworthy - because it doesn't sound like someone is impressed much.

Finally, my oldest daughter is entering her sophomore year of High School, and the family is starting to discuss University options after her graduation. As a result, I've begun researching education in general to get a sense for the kind of school I believe will be able to nurture her individual talents in the ways that will give her the greatest opportunity for success in life.

This speech is quite brilliant - and may be the best thing you read today.

I also think this video is brilliant.

Careful. Once you start watching that video, it is entertaining and enlightening enough to consume the next 20 minutes.

Wierd

He just said what I said yesterday. Wonder if I could get a job teaching at Harvard.

Probably not.

Five Thoughts on Friday

I have been disappointed by Eric Holder, Janet Napolitano, and Tim Geithner. For me, they represent the trilogy of spectacular failure for the Obama administration in my opinion. On the other hand, Hillary Clinton quietly continues to be brilliant.

Paul McLeary is discussing the Navy and Climate Change over at Ares (the Aviation Weekely blog). This is an issue he has been monitoring closely, also check out his article on World Politics Review regarding China and the Arctic.

A huge congratulations to Noah Shachtman of Danger Room - well deserved. My first thought was similar to the observation made by James Joyner.

Good article in the Washington Post describing the Korean Peninsula situation leading into Memorial Day weekend.

I enjoyed Christopher Albon's article and Kyle Mizokami's article discussing Japan's role in Pacific Partnership 2010. The involvement of JDS Kunisaki (LST-4003) represents a natural evolution in the global trend of utilizing the flexibility of amphibious ships in efforts of state soft power.

Monday Reading

Top notice to Jeffrey Lewis over at ArmsControlWonk with this piece Why The Navy Should Retire TLAM-N. Interesting read, perhaps important in QDR season when the nuclear inventory is being examined.

A guest post at Commandant Allen's blog from RADM Brian Salerno (CG-5: Assistant Commandant for Marine Safety, Security, and Stewardship) regarding his testimony for the Coast Guard on Maritime Domain Awareness.

Kennebec Captain is discussing the latest news regarding the Maersk Alabama.

War is Boring is discussing aircaft carriers in Asia with two pieces: Why Japan Won’t Have Aircraft Carriers Anytime Soon and Imagining China’s Aircraft Carrier. A lot of links to browse off those blog posts, and worth the time.

A Few Good Reads

Who is your favorite Pakistani blogger? Mine is Mosharraf Zaidi, and his analysis of the Kerry-Lugar Bill is brilliant reading. That article is one of the Afghanistan top 5 reads for the week.

This AEGIS BMD essay in Space Review by Brian Weeden will give you plenty to think about. Well, it certainly has given me a lot to think about. You folks who worked on Operation Burnt Frost will enjoy it.

Too many sailors who read here daily not to note this call by ADM Harvey. When a 3-star asks for your opinion, give it. When we raise issues related to gender on this blog, the comments of the post can creep towards 100. Surely you folks can muster a couple dozen comments for the Admiral, and that means you too ladies. ADM Harvey has one of the most useful blogs in the Navy, it is a shame more people aren't using the opportunity it offers.

USS Bonhomme Richard (LHD 6) is on deployment. It might be worth watching BHRs Facebook and Twitter pages, and the reason I say this is because in the Pacific right now we have 2 Typhoons and a Tsunami today. Anything can happen, and they are the front lines for the US. Just saying, all kinds of opportunities for BHR to change the way the Navy uses social software, and there are a bunch of smart PAOs in the Pacific who will be backing them up.

Opinion: ARGs with Marines on them is naval diplomacy and soft power. Americans will find the BHR social software efforts to get the word out. In my opinion, the BHR PAOs need to be focused on connecting to audiences in the places you are going, not audiences in the places you come from. The Navy rightfully sees information as a weapon, but that should not apply to CHINFO. However, CHINFO needs to take a different approach to information, and look at information as an influence enterprise.

See the new article at the Jamestown Foundation by Michael S. Chase and Andrew S. Erickson Changes in Beijing’s Approach to Overseas Basing? It would appear the conversation of limited forward basing has begun in China. This is still a far cry from the "String of Pearls" theory, but establishing forward bases of any kind would represent a shift in policy.

"We will do to you what we did to the Russians"

This is outstanding war coverage.

We walked into a trap, a killing zone of relentless gunfire and rocket barrages from Afghan insurgents hidden in the mountainsides and in a fortress-like village where women and children were replenishing their ammunition.

"We will do to you what we did to the Russians," the insurgent's leader boasted over the radio, referring to the failure of Soviet troops to capture Ganjgal during the 1979-89 Soviet occupation.

Dashing from boulder to boulder, diving into trenches and ducking behind stone walls as the insurgents maneuvered to outflank us, we waited more than an hour for U.S. helicopters to arrive, despite earlier assurances that air cover would be five minutes away.

That is the second article by Jonathan Landay of McClatchy News of the attack, this one was filed earlier in the day.

Also, check out the analysis at NightWatch.

Landay’s experience reinforces the NW contention that without air support, US ground operations are unsustainable. As a result of Landay’s excellent dispatch plus earlier reports of a number of US defeats at the hands of the Taliban, mostly in Konar Province, it is no longer accurate to assert that the US wins every battle. The ability of the Taliban to leverage their information operations to support their combat operations, as described by Landay, is a breakthrough in insurgent tactical success.

The ability of the Taliban to win successive battles in Konar Province against the best armed, supported and networked forces in the world is nothing short of astonishing! The Marines got beat, not because the Taliban were better on the battle field, but because they had better intelligence, i.e., were smarter. That ought to be a wake up call to someone.

No insurgent or nation respects a country because it has a great counter-insurgency capability. Great power status rests on air power and, in appropriate situations, naval power. Consider, the Taliban are so afraid of US ground forces that they persist in fighting them with turbans, AKs, RPGs, sandals and flowing robes. No body armor, no armored vehicles.

The NW hypothesis is that the security of US forces is not sustainable without air support. Landay’s article proves that proposition. Protecting the Afghan populace … from NATO forces … has become the responsibility of the Taliban in the south and northeast. If Landay’s account is typical, the US apparently has no coherent strategy that translates into effective tactics, and that puts US soldiers’ lives at increased risk.

Troubling.

NWC Review Autumn 2009

The Naval War College Review Autumn 2009 edition is out. I've already been talking with some of the other authors here, and I have a feeling some of these articles are likely to come up as discussion topics. All links below are PDF.

Using the Land to Control the Sea?
Chinese Analysts Consider the Antiship Ballistic Missile
Andrew S. Erickson and David D. Yang

China's Antiship Ballistic Missile
Developments and Missing Links
Eric Hagt and Matthew Durnin

Fresh Thinking for an Old Problem
Report of the Naval War College Workshop on Countering Maritime Piracy
Commander James Kraska, JAGC, U.S. Navy

Midway and the Indian Ocean
Jeremy Black

Clear Purpose, Comprehensive Execution
Raymond Ames Spruance (1886-1969)
Captain Wayne P. Hughes, Jr., U.S. Navy (Retired)

The New Security Drama in East Asia
The Responses of U.S. Allies and Security Partners to China’s Rise
Evan S. Medeiros

U.S. Naval Options for Influencing Iran
Daniel Gouré and Rebecca Grant

Also worth noting:

Arctic Security: Policy and Law in an Age of Climate Change Conference September 22-23, 2009

I constantly find myself reading Commander James Kraska's work. This list has a number of articles related to piracy that I highly recommend. There are a lot of great things happening at the Naval War College right now, and one of the easiest ways to keep up is to add the @NavalWarCollege twitter dude to your RSS feed, because that guy is actually more informative (and interesting to follow) than the RSS news feed from the NWC website.

Hopefully the NWC is able to put video of the Arctic Conference sessions online. For those who plan on attending the Arctic conference, or simply wish to learn a lot about activities related to US interests in the Arctic region, Commandant Thad Allen has a brilliant Arctic Awareness link post on his blog worth checking out. That link is solid gold when it comes to raising awareness on Arctic issues.

Afternoon Reading

Budget Insight is a Stimson Center blog on the budgets, institutions, people and processes that drive US foreign affairs and defense policy. David Axe has a guest post contribution up today titled:

Navy’s Chance for Reform, Slipping Away

ID is supporting David Axe as he tries to get out to the Horn of Africa later this month to chase pirates with NATO. Read this if you haven't already.

News You Can Use

A few links worth a browse.

Note to Pirates: Don’t Mess with Egyptian Fishermen from Wired's Danger Room links to several locations discussing the Egyptian fisherman who killed two pirates fighting back during a recent pirate attack. Pirates attacking from these fast speedboats do not seem to fair well when the ship fires back, and it makes sense. They have very limited protection in those small, fast boats and attackers generally have an advantage firing down on top of the pirates. Pirates really are badly exposed in those small fishing style boats, but must use fishing boats to blend in with the population at sea. Authority to shoot back, due to the terrible protection of pirate boats, may be all that is required to make this problem go away based on the tactical elements of piracy itself. That is something worth adding to the protection debate I think.

Anti-terror gun stops boats dead by the BBC has video and text of a new non-lethal weapon system under evaluation in the UK for the 2012 Olympic games. Something like this mounted on a H-60 with good range and accuracy would be ideal for taking on small boats, particularly if it can be rearmed in flight or carry multiple devices to stop multiple boats. Useful for Coast Guard operations against drug runners as well, beats the hell out of having a sniper shoot out the engine.

Russian military exercises off Canada coast cause tension by the St. Petersburg Times is noting some tension by our northern neighbors regarding Russian military exercises, including paratroopers at the North Pole in a coming exercise. I expect more of this as Russia's military continues to reorganize and as the Arctic region continues to be a major focus of Russian military activity. It is only a matter of time before Canada makes the Arctic region a serious public issue with NATO.

Tropical Storm Ana forms in Atlantic Ocean by the South Beach Community Examiner notes the first Atlantic tropical storm of the season is on its way. In the Northeast, we have broken records for rain and if I might add, it has been cooler than usual. In other words, the weather has been abnormal. An abnormal hurricane season, either better or worse, wouldn't surprise me at all this season. Speaking for myself, I will be watching the social software services of the Coast Guard as the hurricane season approaches, something tells me that before it is said and done, the Coast Guards big impact on the weather season will likely come from Twitter. That tool seems made for rapid information distribution in real time during emergencies, and the Coast Guard has a rather large Twitter presence already established to make it work. Integrated through the official Coast Guard blog, it could be both very useful and very interesting.

In fact, if I has one complaint of the USCG blog, it would be that they don't list all the official district Twitter accounts. I have found them very useful to follow in the past, and think that as storm season approaches they have real potential to distribute local information very quickly, particularly since Twitter is widely available from cell phones.

4 Interesting Links

From the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments comes 4 links worth looking at.

Analysis of the FY 2010 Defense Budget Request
Report (PDF)
Slides (PDF)

Classified Funding in the FY 2010 Defense Budget Request
Report (PDF)

Impact of the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan on the US Military’s Plans, Programs, and Budgets
Report (PDF)