In the Wake of Unified Response

My latest column at WPR nods at some of the difficulties of a soft power oriented military policy:

Washington's objectives in Haiti were fourfold: save lives, prevent a mass exodus, look good, and get out. The United States managed to accomplish the first, second and fourth goals, and for a while, it even appeared to make solid progress on the third. Preventing an exodus was probably the most important U.S. goal, and by all accounts the intervention appears to have succeeded on this point. Getting out quickly was also important in order to defuse criticism at home and abroad of another large-scale foreign deployment. However, while the United States may have done good in Haiti, the aftermath of the earthquake will be remembered more for the enduring chaos than for the quick and effective response of the United States military.

The European Response to Haiti: United in Diversity

Where Information Dissemination has so far mainly focussed on the US response on the Haiti earthquake, here's a brief analysis of the European response.

Leadership
Let's start with asking that all important question: Who's in charge? The answer to the question is fairly easy. It's Catherine Ashton, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Have we seen her so far? Only very briefly.
The problem Ashton has is that she has 'competition' when it comes to Foreign Affairs. The competition are:
Spain, which holds the current Presidency of the Council of the EU.
Herman van Rompuy, the President of the European Council.
José Manuel Boroso, the President of the European Commission.
All the 27 ministers of Development Aid from the EU members.
Larger members making their own policy (think about France with its international donor conference).

This all makes that there is one guarantee with a EU answer to problems: it takes about forever before there's a general agreement on actions to be taken.

As a Dutch saying goes: with Baroness Ashton the EU isn't going to win the war. She was absent from European Defence Summit in Majorca on february the 24th, the first one since her installment. Javier Solana always attended these meetings and at this one NATO secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen was also present. Ashton, however, decided that it was much more important to attended the inauguration of President Yanukovych in Ukraine.
That doesn't give much hope for the future.

Money
So the only thing that the EU has commonly decided on is to pledge €330 million in aid. (That only took them SIX days, so it was a really quick response in EU-time.)
But member states have also pledged money separately. The Netherlands national government has promised about €44.5 million besides the EU offer. So it's almost impossible to figure out what the total amount is. Especially because some of the amounts are hard to decipher. Let me explain why that is.
That Dutch promise is made up of the immediate offer of 1 million. Later 2 million was added and then another 41,5 million. The last amount came about because the Dutch minister of Development Aid promised to match what the Dutch public would raise during a telethon. But only in the Dutch press the distinction is made everywhere else you only see the total amount of €83 million raised by the telethon.

Assets
The EU has hardly any assets, but its members do. So in true EU style there was hardly any coordination of all the individual efforts.
So what happened was some mad dash to send planes to Haiti. But it's a long flight to Haiti from Europe and a fair amount of planes couldn't land in Port-au-Prince because the airport was clogged up. The delays weren't too dramatic though, so these small scale efforts went reasonably well.

But the large scale effort is a real disappointment. Where are all those European LPDs, LHDs and carriers that were built because the future, since the Cold War is over, is in Sea Basing and disaster relief?
A few in Haiti, but mainly not going at all. And that's disappointing, since in total the EU members have 6 CV's, 2 LPH's, 2 LHD's, 11 LPD's, 4 LSD's

Spain has sent a LPD, the UK sent a LSD, Italy a CV and the Netherlands offered a LPD.
But it took these countries more than a week to offer them in the first place and not all vessels actually went. The Dutch LPD HNLMS Johan de Witt didn't go. The reason is the UN has said it will not be needed any more by the time it will get there. Now there's a shocker. That's what happens when you wait too long with a decision.
But the Dutch can now take the moral high ground. They offered and the UN has said it isn't necessary.

The EU will also send a European police force of 350. We all know that's going to be an invaluable contribution next to those 20,000+ American soldiers and 2,000 Canadian soldiers.

Conclusion
The EU members have definitely taken the EU motto “United in Diversity” quite literally. The lack of a coordinated response is certainly what unites them.

Any EU members still wondering why the US world doesn't take them serious, especially on a military level?

Operation Unified Response Update

USS Normandy (CG 60) completed work off Haiti today and listed out in detail their contribution over the 21 days on station in support of Operation Unified Response.

Normandy Totals:

• 123,500 portions of HA/DR meals
• 291 MRE’s
• 1000 gallons of water
• 2800 portions of rice
• 1800 portions of dehydrated soup

Helo Det Totals:

• 75,142 lbs
• 17,705 lbs of parts
• 146 hours of flight time
• 287 Lifts (sorties)
• 3,000 pounds in medical supplies
• 107 MEDEVACS, 66 of those non-ambulatory

That is significant work for a cruiser, and flight time is just barely under 30%. The source for this information is the USS Normandy page on Facebook. Also the photo above is from VADM Harvey.

This highlights two ways the US Navy is using social media today that we have not seen in the past.

Observing Haiti and Operation Unified Response

Two weeks ago, the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) became the symbol of American power and compassion as the ship sailed offshore Port-au-Prince and began helicopter operations following Haiti's devastating earthquake. Two weeks later the situation in Haiti has improved considerably, although problems and challenges still exist.

I am not usually a big fan of Thomas Donnelly, he is kind of hit or miss with me on issues, but I highly recommend his article Mission to Haiti in the Weekly Standard. I would take it one step further than Thomas Donnelly does though. I would advise the President to consider negotiating for a Naval base in Haiti. The lease for a potential Naval Base for 99 years would be a great way to insure money in support of rebuilding the country.

We don't necessarily have to build the base immediately, rather just use the land as a place to store the billions of dollars of equipment that is heading to Haiti now in support of this relief effort. One idea might be to lease and build the base in cooperation with Canada, Mexico, and Brazil - promoting buy-in from regional partners. Shared responsibility and shared costs using a potentially less efficient but nonetheless effective western Berlin model for sustained presence. Regardless of what is decided, discussing Haiti in the long term needs to begin sooner than later.

I have been holding off all week on discussing Haiti. The result is, I have a lot to say.

Mass Information

If you are having trouble finding good data on Haiti, you are not alone. I have only been able to find 2 useful sources for good statistical information on military operations in Haiti: APAN and Blogger Roundtables. If you know of another, please let me know.

There is probably more official information on Haiti available from the DoD than any other operation the DoD is involved in, including Iraq and Afghanistan. It really is remarkable, the Twitter - Facebook - social - viral - network strategy has been very effective, and you can simply search hash tags in Twitter to see how many tens of thousands are seeing official Navy information. From a mass information distribution perspective, the US has scored an A+.

The problem is the information is mostly useless. It shows work being done, but doesn't give explanation of how mission is being accomplished. There are no public maps, no discussions of what the 22 MEU is trying to do, the 24 MEU is trying to do, or what the Navy is trying to do. "Open the port" and "deliver aid" is about as detailed as some of the information gets, except in some places.

Want to see a picture of the hardest working Navy-Marine-Coast Guard team in the world, watch Twitter or Facebook. Want to find out what is going on in Haiti? Good luck to the average American. Apparently the DoD will show the American people a video of a smart bomb hitting a building on Arab soil but won't show a map of how Marines are saving lives in Haiti. What, did the $61 million raised by George Clooney not reveal the level of interest by the American people in Haiti?

We are two weeks into the largest military operation since the Iraq War and there have been exactly zero briefings where a map was used in a press briefing with someone showing what our military is doing in Haiti. Dvidshub has been an excellent source of information, but SOUTHCOM does need to do a better job of providing public information of their biggest operation in history. Examples below.

Fuzzy Math

Rear Adm. Ted Branch, Commander, Carrier Strike Group One aboard USS Carl Vinson, gave a bloggers roundtable on Tuesday January 27th discussing operations off of Haiti. I missed it, but Navy News Service has an article on the interview, and the transcript is available here (PDF).

So far, Branch's strike group has performed 1,979 flights, nearly 1,600 of which were mission-related operations, delivering personnel and supplies. Medical evacuations made up 375 of the sorties.

These flights made up "the bulk of the vertical lift used" in the Navy's effort, he said.

A bit of math here. The USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) arrived on January 15th and the roundtable was the 27th. Assuming the numbers were through the 26th, that means an average of almost 180 flights per day with an average of ~145 mission related per day. As this began with 25 helicopters on day 1 and has ramped up to around 63 today, these suggest very impressive numbers.

Branch said the Navy as a whole has brought more than a million pounds of cargo to Haiti, including 87,000 gallons of water, nearly 162 tons of food, 345,400 pounds of medical supplies, 75 tons of support equipment and 3,300 people to help in relief efforts.

Branch's group - which consists of 12 ships deployed to Haiti, including the Carl Vinson Strike Group ships, the USS Nassau (LHA 4) and USS Bataan (LHD 5) Amphibious Ready Groups and the hospital ship USNS Comfort (T-AH 20) - is expecting a lengthy deployment.

In another bloggers roundtable on Saturday January 24th, which I also missed, Capt. Bruce H. Lindsey, commanding officer, USS Carl Vinson, mentioned something that was covered in this DoD press release.

“We are probably doing 180 to 240 landings a day off of this ship,” he said. “The sailors on the flight deck and in maintenance are doing the hard work, making sure they are getting into the country.”

One of the main things the ship transports is medical supplies. Another is water -- the ship has transported more than 30,000 gallons of water. A group of sailors on his ship also created a water tree, where they took piping and created spigots, and use the supply of water from the ship to fill containers with water for those in need in Haiti.

Lindsey said sailors volunteered their time to do build the water tree and fill 5 gallon jugs with water by hand. Because of their volunteer efforts each helicopter that leaves the ship has 32 of these jugs on flight.

Noteworthy, the "180 landings" number jives with the other article, but something about this water math doesn't work. If each flight leaves with 32 5-gallon jugs, then each flight takes 160 gallons for delivery. If the aircraft carrier is supporting 145 mission flights a day from the ship, the implication is ~23,000 gallons are being delivered per day.

But the Captain also said the ship has transported only around 30,000 gallons of water, so the implication would appear inaccurate. Further making the point is how the Navy has made it publicly clear how the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) is capable of producing 100,000 gallons per day, but has not said exactly how much potable water the carrier is actually producing and delivering per day. If 100,000 gallons of water isn't being delivered, making the point it can be produced is pointless. Based on the details in the bloggers roundtable and in the Navy News Service reporting, something doesn't add up.

In the interview Capt. Lindsey says "we have passed almost 20,000 gallons to the Haitian people" with 5 gallon jugs using the water system on Carl Vinson. Well, by my math that is 4,000 gallons per day, at best. If each flight leaves with 32 5-gallon jugs, then each flight takes 160 gallons for delivery - but for 4,000 gallons that math would mean there are only 25 flights carrying water per day (out of 19 helicopters). What?

If it is only 30,000 gallons as of January 24th, and the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) arrived on January 15th, that is only an average of 3,333 gallons per day. It would also suggest that as of today, January 29, the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) is yet to deliver even 50,000 gallons of potable water to Haiti despite being on station for 2 weeks, and despite the capability to produce 100,000 gallons per day in support of HA/DR.

CS-21 elevated HA/DR to a core strategic mission for the Navy, but something went wrong. The contribution of the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) has clearly been with the 19 helicopters, in other words, aviation and mobility support which has no doubt been vital to the effort. With that said, the HA/DR material contribution of the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) is hardly sufficient in any way, in fact Haiti has exposed a major capability gap in the Navy's HA/DR material delivery of water. It also highlights the total coordination failure of SOUTHCOM.

If the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) can produce at least 100,000 gallons of potable water per day, why did the Red Cross charter 43 flights to deliver 660,000 gallons of bottled water at a time when medical supplies were in enormous demand, and the aircraft carrier off the coast could have produced more than twice that amount over the same period of time? How many amputations occurred because of this blunder of coordination? How many people died?

The aircraft carrier has delivered a little bit of food, a little bit of medicine, but no heavy equipment and no shelter - it arrived on scene without excess of that stuff on ship. The USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) has managed an average daily delivery of only around ~3,333 gallons, which is nothing when in support of 1,000,000 - 2,0000,000 in need. If we assume the need is 1 quart per day per person, the requirement is for 250,000 to 500,000 gallons per day to support the water needs of the people. Do the math - 3,333 gal/250,000 gal = ~1.3% of the gallons necessary to meet the requirement is being delivered, despite a stated capacity of the ship to produce the water requirement for ~400,000 people with 100,000 gallon production capacity.

Keep in mind, delivering an average of 3,333 gallons includes the bonus of having extra helicopters on the ship.

One clear lesson early in the Haiti operation to me is that the capacity of a US nuclear aircraft carrier is sufficient to meet water requirements in support of large HA/DR, but the capability of a US nuclear aircraft carrier to meet the requirement, even with a surge of helicopters, is no where close to sufficient. If the potable water can be produced, but not delivered, it is not a capability - it is a capacity. There is clearly an enormous systems gap suggesting something is needed to turn capacity into capability.

Another problem is the inability of SOUTHCOM to coordinate the use of the aircraft carrier for water production. There are probably legitimate challenges and reasons, but they do need to be examined closely. Based on the numbers provided in the blogger roundtable interviews, SOUTHCOM's support of water production by the aircraft carrier was only able to deliver 1.3% of total potential water production capacity. If those numbers hold up, I think that would be by definition "spectacular failure" in the context of a disaster where the official Haitian government January 28 numbers are 112,392 dead and 196,501 people injured.

The whole group of 12 ships has only delivered 87,000 gallons of water per Admiral Branch's comment on January 27th. The Bataan ARG arrived on January 19th, and the Nassau ARG arrived on January 23rd. The USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) has an excess water production of 100,000 gallons per day, meaning that at maximum efficiency the full capability would have delivered 1.4 million gallons potable water to date. The USS Bataan (LHD 5) and USS Nassau (LHA 4) each produce 200,000 gallons potable water per day. The USS Mesa Verde (LPD 19) produces 96,000 gallons of potable water per day. The USS Fort McHenry (LSD 43), USS Gunston Hall (LSD 44), USS Carter Hall (LSD 50), and USS Ashland (LSD 48) all produce 63,000 gallons of potable water per day each. Just those ships are capable of producing 848,000 gallons per day potable water - enough water to meet the needs of everyone in Port-au-Prince every day.

Do the math based on the number of days each ship has been on station. At maximum efficiency the US Navy ships off Port-au-Prince could have produced 5,589,000 gallons of potable water to date, and instead has delivered 87,000 gallons potable water. That means in water production through the first two weeks, if these numbers are accurate, the Navy has been delivering 1.5% of maximum capacity for potable water production.

The need for water has been met after two weeks, at least according to this Bloomberg report. This is almost certainly due to the water production capacity now on the ground in Haiti. The same report goes on to note all the needs that haven't been met. Unless the numbers provided by Captain Lindsey and RDML Branch are wrong (and they could be as there are no official numbers anywhere else - the information problem discussed above), SOUTHCOMs management of water logistics for Haiti to date would appear to represent a tremendous military blunder, at best.

It leads to several questions. Has the US Navy been capable of supporting the delivery of more potable water produced from ships than was done the first two weeks? Has SOUTHCOM used naval forces effectively in HA/DR? Does the Navy have a major gap between potable water production on ships (like CVNs, LHAs, LHDs, and LPDs) and potable water delivery from ships?

Is the US Navy organized properly to respond to major natural disasters? Look, if the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) has indeed only delivered ~3,333 gallons of water per day average, there is a serious gap between capacity and capability that needs to be addressed. 100,000 gallons of water will weigh about 420 tons plus the container weight. Here is a question sure to drive some crazy..., is there a future mission module solution here? Offload the water to LCS/JHSVs from CVNs and have those vessels run around supporting delivery? If the Navy is going to elevate HA/DR to a core mission of strategy, this is a legitimate discussion.

This water logistics situation looks like a SOUTHCOM fiasco. I'm tempted to call this runway centric Air Force myopic bullshit approach to Haiti over the last two weeks a 1st class leadership fuckup, but it remains only a working theory until they put out the official numbers. SOUTHCOM needs to reveal the data that tells the story why water has been flooding in on the vital US flights while the massive Navy water production capacity was left virtually idle in port. A lot of people died because water was flown in instead of medicine. You think CNN is focused on Haiti now, just wait until Anderson Cooper figures out who is to blame for his 10pm complaints over the last two weeks.

The Canadians Kick Ass

When Haiti first happened I raised the question who would play the role of Indian during the Tsunami. The answer is Canada. If the numbers cited above are accurate, there is evidence the US Navy has been less than efficient with their Navy vessels supporting operations in Haiti. The same cannot be said about Canada.

Not sure if you heard, but on the same night George Clooney raised $61 million for Haiti, one of two telethons took place in Canada, and between the two telethons Canadians have raised $20 million in donations for Haiti - which the government has pledged to match.

Canada currently has 1,400 soldiers, sailors, and air crew on the ground or off the coast, a number expected to reach 2,000 by Sunday. Canada has two ships, HMCS Halifax (FFH 330) and HMCS Athabaskan (DDH 282), one Sea King, six Griffon helicopters, one C-17, one C-130, hundreds of vehicles, and a military field hospital operating in support of Haiti (source). Most of their work has been centered around the city of Jacmel, a town of 40,000 south of the earthquake epicenter that was devastated. There is an airport there, and it has been opened. Because the radar equipment was completely destroyed, HMCS Halifax (FFH 330) is running air traffic control from sea.

HMCS Athabaskan (DDH 282) had been operating in Léogâne where the Canadians set up a military field hospital. Léogâne is where the 22nd MEU has now set up operations. HMCS Athabaskan (DDH 282) left Léogâne on Wednesday for Jamaica to pick up supplies, fuel, and the 165 Canadian soldiers from the Royal 22nd Regiment, known as the Van Doos.

When you look at how much the Canadians have been able to do with just two ships, it is quite remarkable and a reminder that alternative force structures bring a lot of flexibility to operations. The Canadians are trying to link a road (that remains blocked) from Léogâne to Jacmel. The ports in both cities are closed, and without that road the people live off aid the Canadians provide and the support of airfields like the one the Canadians opened in Jacmel.

This is one of the Canadian Navy's finest hours. I noticed a poll where 66% of the Canadian people believe the government response to Haiti has been "Just Right." All that poll tells me is 34% of the Canadian people don't know excellence when they see it.

HA/DR Littoral Ink Spots?

The US Fleet Forces Command blog has an interesting post up discussing Haiti that includes an email from Captain Dominic DeScisciolo of the USS Bunker Hill (CG 52). It is a must read, as again it highlights how much good a ship can do. Well, not any ship, but a well resourced ship.

Peacetime challenges and activities require manpower, and it is absolutely clear when reading Captain Dominic DeScisciolo's email that he is maximizing the capability of his ship in this mission. I'm not saying others aren't, but I am saying that as the Coast Guard has proved, a ship with qualified, motivated sailors can do a heck of a lot if resourced well enough to accomplish the mission. A cruiser is obviously resourced well enough with manpower to do exactly that. A Famous class cutter, with 100 personnel, is also resourced well enough to go ashore and make a difference. Something to think about.

Challenges Ahead

The biggest challenge ahead is the increasing potential for rain, which can bring with it all kinds of medical challenges and potential epidemics. There are reports of suspected cases of measles in some parts of the earthquake area. More than 40% of the population has never had a measles vaccination. Malaria and other diseases are also potential problems down the road, none of which is good for a country moving into tent cities.

Despite some reported security problems, the security situation in Haiti remains very good. There are reports of UN and US Marine patrols at night in several places of the earthquake zone. Security is a serious issue that cannot be taken lightly though. The need for food is so high for so many that without security, distribution remains impossible.

The response by the United States is something I believe every American can be proud of. It has not been perfect, it never is, but we also do not see disasters of this scale and scope very often. The Navy will learn from this, of that I have no doubt. I feel nothing but a great sense of pride in seeing America respond to Haiti, and feel well represented by the Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, and Marines on the ground in Haiti doing the work in representation of folks like me.

My Hero of Haiti

A fantastic read and must save document regarding Haiti. In the words of Col. Buck Elton, who in my opinion is responsible for more lives saved in Haiti than anyone.

Question of the Day

Look at this picture, what question immediately comes to mind?



Is the crane on USS Fort McHenry 9LSD 43) broken or something?

HT: leesea

Observing USNS Comfort in Haiti From Space

Jan 21 satellite image of Port-au-Prince from NASA. Note ship locations, and how easy it is to spot USNS Comfort (T-AH 20).

It is almost time to start talking about initial observations of activites. I think the challenges of Command, Coordination, Communications, and Cooperation are the key elements of focus, but there are obviously others.

From a broad view I think what we are learning in HA/DR is on par with what we are learning about war from the experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan. While I compile my list, what are some of your observations so far?

Several Recovery Charters

Many details in this article discussing a number of ships heading to Haiti. The private industry is lining up for the contracts coming out as part of the recovery efforts.

Reconsider Sea Basing?

The Brookings Institution with an interesting Navy related post today.

Forward... From the Sea into Haiti

When you look at what is unfolding in Haiti, there are many theories regarding the bulk movement of materials to shore following disaster, crisis, or war being tested from just about everyone, including the Marines to a small degree.

There will be winners and losers in the bulk delivery to shore debate as a fallout of Haiti, and those winners and losers will be political, strategic, operational, intellectual, and industrial. We're about to find out who thought of everything, who knew better, and which systems are both flexible and expeditionary with the strategic speed necessary to support the demands of major crisis.

I think everyone will be interested in this press release. Expect several more like it over the coming days. Another validation that in the 21st century, quantity still trumps quality at the lower operational spectrum for naval forces.

Sell Baby Sell

ADM Harvey is easily the most accessible Admiral in the Navy, and in my mind may be the best Admiral in the fleet today. Leads from the front with purpose and conviction, and ducks nothing. As I privately told Bryan after a previous discussion on the blog involving ADM Harvey, he really should be next CNO in my opinion.

This time, he wants your ideas for Operation Unified Response.

My advice is simple. This is a teaching moment.

Communication is important. Explain your operations generally with selective detail. Start with a simple explanation why Haiti is important strategically to the United States, but transition quickly to discussing operations - maybe even a bit of tactics. Help the audience watching the Navy today, which happens to be a lot more American people than usual, understand the way Naval power brings capacity and capability to an overseas operational theater. Explain the value to the country in broad context, but don't dwell on that or people will lose interest. The folks already understand reasons of compassion why the Navy is in Haiti, so explain what and how naval power is such a difference maker in Haiti. Use maps, Icons of ships and planes, but K.I.S.S.

How do the pieces of the fleet deployed to Haiti fit together? It isn't hard for folks to figure out why the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) is so useful, but they may not understand the value of a ship like USS Normandy (CG 60). Explain the tools and unique capabilities of the sailors who will open up a destroyed port. What is the value of Blue/Green teams?

I've never met a Navy officer who couldn't use PPT, unfortunately. The Navy should give a briefing with huge pictures and maps of Haiti operations that outline the work being done by every ship in theater taking place off Port-au-Prince, how it ties into what the UN and NGOs are doing, and when the briefing is over - post an enhanced video of the briefing on YouTube.

Right now there is an audience; sell baby sell. As a political strategist would say, never miss opportunity in crisis. A Military Strategist would say it different, and his words apply to right now because right now detailed information would be a service instead of a sales pitch.

Coast Guard Praise

There is a great deal of praise for the US Coast Guard coming from...

The White House Blog. Well deserved in my opinion. ADM Thad Allen's blog has been updated with the full list of Coast Guard forces supporting operations in Haiti.

Regular updates from the Official Coast Guard Blog.

Finally, a photo gallery here.

Opening the Roads in Haiti

Click the map to the right to open. The yellow is the road from Port-au-Prince west to Carrefour, west to Gressier, southwest to Leogane, and southeast around the epicenter to Jacmel.

North Port-au-Prince is where the 2nd Brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division is operating, starting from the airport to the north and working south. The roads highlighted in yellow are the priority roads that are being opened with engineering equipment from the airport.

USS Gunston Hall (LSD 44) sent teams ashore at Killick Haitian Coast Guard base in the Port-au-Prince suburb of Carrefour. There have been reports of obstructions on the main road #200 throughout Carrefour. There were an estimate 400,000 people in Carrefour before the earthquake.

USS Bataan (LHD 5) is supporting Marine operations off the large area of Leogane, very near the epicenter of the 7.0 earthquake. 80% of the houses in the greater Leogane have reported to have been destroyed by the earthquake. The town and greater surrounding area supposedly had around 130,000 people before the earthquake, but the early estimates of dead in the area by NGOs first working the area is 25,000-30,000, yet to be confirmed. Several NGOs have a medical station or relief distribution station set up there, and the UN had a base there.

The Canadians are already ashore and working in Leogane. Another Canadian group is in Jacmel. After the earthquake there was a report the road from Leogane to Jacmel blocked with landslides at 18°23.938’ -72°38.277’ (just north of the turn off to Trouin and Baudin). The Canadians intend to open that road to connect Jacmel to Leogane. There is a small airfield in Jacmel, and the population of Jacmel is around 40,000, making it the 4th largest city in Haiti before the earthquake.

Presumably the Marines intend to open the road from Leogane back to Port-au-Prince, and open roads to the surrounding suburbs of Leogane, Gressier, and Carrefore. That won't be easy, for example the bridge at Dufort, about 10km west of the epicenter, is reported to be down.

There are additional naval forces globally responding to Haiti as follows:

Netherlands
HNLMS Pelikaan (A804)

Canada
HMCS Halifax (FFH 330)
HMCS Athabaskan (DDH 282)

Italy
MMI Cavour (550) (arrival 29th)

France
FNS Siroco (L 9012)
FNS Francis Garnier (L 9031)

Mexico
Hospital ship Huasteco
ARM Papaloapan

Spain
SNS Castilla (L52) (arrival after 29th)

Venezuela
2 naval transport vessels?

Brazil
1 ship?

--

Notes

It is very noteworthy that no ship of the Royal Navy has been dispatched to Haiti, considering the interests the British claim in the Caribbean Sea. How much longer before the MoD asks the Admiralty to take the red and blue colors out of the White Ensign? That would be a joke, if it was funny.

The KMZ file I used in Google Earth for the map above can be obtained from Google here. It is updated following the earthquake and has a few overlays of interest. A browser embedded version of the viewer can be found here.

Haiti Earthquake Impact on America in Context

The State Department told NBC news on Tuesday that there are still 5,500 missing Americans in Haiti. What the article does not mention is that no Americans have been pulled out of rubble alive in 2 days, and the odds of finding more survivors is very low.

Missing does not mean dead.

There are still no fixed estimates how many people were killed in the earthquake, but the UN is now saying they have already buried 50,000 bodies. That does not count the many thousands who died and are buried inside collapsed buildings.

I have not seen any estimates of how many of the estimated 250,000 wounded in Haiti were American, but there were an estimated 45,000 Americans in Haiti at the time of the earthquake.

For context, there have been 4,373 American citizens killed in the Iraq war, and 962 Americans kill in the Afghanistan War.

With such an incredible loss of life, is anyone still curious why I have believed from the beginning this will be an enormous political challenge for the Obama administration? They are doing a great job, but cannot afford at any point to appear politically distracted from an event that potentially might represent the largest loss of American life in decades.

Canada Expected to Arrive in Haiti Today - Updated

The Canadians have two ships arriving to Haiti today. Noteworthy, one of the ships is going to Jacmel. There is a small airport at Jacmel. Worth a look at the map. I wonder if any Marines will land down there?

Update: Lots of activity observed via twitter offshore at Leogane, Haiti. May be where 22 MEU is coming ashore. If so, check out the WFP assessment map here based on local collection.There is a UN base in Leogane, so it makes more sense. I had previously speculated the Marines would come ashore at Carrefore.

Makes sense though. The Canadians intend to connect the road from Jacmel to Leogane, and if work is done on the airstrip down there, one can look at the Google Map to get a feel for how they plan to open lines of communication around the earthquake epicenter.

We'll know more in the morning. For real time updates of Haiti, I still highly recommend Ushahidi. Play with it a bit if at first intimidated or confused, and you'll see why.

Maritime Observations of Operation United Response

Tuesday afternoon will mark the one week anniversary of the earthquake in Haiti. Several maritime operations are underway worth observing.

Maj. Gen. Cornell A. Wilson repeatedly called the MEU arriving off Haiti a Sea Base (audio here). That term has been used in so many ways since Seapower 21 that it has become impossible to define, but I do believe his use in this case is accurate based on what is unfolding. It will be interesting to see where the Marines land in Haiti. Based on satellite imagery I suspect they will land southwest of the port near Carrefour, closer to the epicenter of the earthquake and not necessarily near the airport giving the relief operation a distributed feeling. There have been many reports of security problems in Carrefour, which may put the Marines in position to provide security even if the Secretary of Defense suggests security isn't their role.

USNS Grasp (T-ARS 51) arrived and is working in the port with the U.S. Army's 544th Engineer Dive Team, Explosive Ordnance Disposal group 2, the Mobile and Diving Salvage Unit 2, and Underwater Construction Team 2 under command of Rear Adm. Samuel Perez, Commander, Task Force (CTF) 42. Worth noting from the article:

Grasp and the 544th had been conducting Navy Diver Southern Partnership Station 2010 (ND SPS 10) off the coast of Belize prior to the earthquake in Haiti. Once diverted, the ship made a brief stop in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba to refuel and collect food and supplies for humanitarian aid and disaster relief prior to their arrival in Port-au-Prince.

I think that is noteworthy because USS Gunston Hall (LSD 44) has also arrived in Haiti, but had previously been planning on deploying last Friday in support of African Partnership Station (APS) East. We have lost sustained presence in the 4th Fleet and 6th Fleet by diverting units previously tasked as Partnership Stations. Is this an example where Partnership Station deployments are working as designed - able to quickly respond to emerging crisis, or a flaw in the system - presence is lost because assets are needed elsewhere?

I wonder if USS Gunston Hall (LSD 44) would have been sent to Haiti if LPD-17 or LPD-21 were available? These would appear to be issues for Congress.

Worth noting the Nassau ARG deployed Monday with USS Nassau (LHA 4), USS Mesa Verde (LPD 19), and USS Ashland (LSD 48). The ARG has long been scheduled to deploy to the 5th and 6th Fleet AOR, but can always be tasked to go anywhere. It is worth noting the deployment for a different reason though, because when looking at the amphibious ships on the East Coast, the absence of the San Antonio class LPDs raises questions.

USS Whidbey Island is in dry dock. USS Ponce (LPD 15) and USS Oak Hill (LSD 51) returned with the USS Bataan and the 22 MEU deployment in December 2009, and may be in maintenance availability already. In other words, all the Marines have is the USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7), USS Kearsarge (LHD 3) and USS Wasp (LHD 1) in reserve after the USS Nassau (LHA 4) and 24 MEU deploy, and it is unlikely all three LHDs are actually available.

Big deck amphibious ships are flexible and extraordinarily useful, but they are so expensive that the Marines simply can't field enough of them. I would argue that the 22 MEU response to Haiti is an excellent example of the kind of strategic speed that makes amphibious ships important, but the emphasis of amphibious ships in the Marine Corps existing maritime force structure doesn't give the Marines a response capability with tactical speed. If Marines are the countries 9/11 force - tactical speed does matter.

The future of the Marine Corps may become a big debate in 2010, and I for one hope they are looking beyond Amphibious ships and the EFV while not being forced to settle for JHSVs and Littoral Combat Ships. I think the Marines represent a very important debate that is a great deal more complicated than specific equipment discussions, and it will come over the next 30 days. I intend to participate in that debate from the cheap seats.

As the Coast Guard has demonstrated over the last 7 days, a platoon of Marines could potentially do a hell of a lot of good on a smaller vessel, and if smaller vessels were organized in squadrons one would have the necessary intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and communications to effectively deploy a Marine Rifle Company for distributed ops in littorals very much in line with the company level operations being done in Afghanistan. I think that article was one of the most important Marine Corps articles of 2009, a must read, and will be linked many times from this blog in the future.

As of Tuesday morning there will be at least 10 US Navy ships around Haiti including USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), USS Higgins (DDG 76), USS Normandy (CG 60), USS Underwood (FFG 36), USS Bataan (LHD 5), USS Fort McHenry (LSD 43), USS Gunston Hall (LSD 44), USS Carter Hall (LSD 50) USNS Grasp (T-ARS 51), and USNS Big Horn (T-AO-198). Additionally 5 Coast Guard cutters including USCGC Oak (WLB 211), USCGC Forward (WMEC-911), USCGC Tahoma (WMEC 908), USCGC Mohawk (WMEC-913), and USCGC Valiant (WMEC 621) are offshore of Haiti. Combined there will be at least 48 helicopters supporting the operation as of Tuesday morning, almost all (and maybe all) of which are provided by the maritime services.

Other ships expected to arrive this week include USS Bunker Hill (CG 52), USNS Henson (T-AGS 63), USNS Sumner (T-AGS 61), USNS Savagawea (T-AKE 2), and USNS 1st LT Jack Lummus (T-AK 3011).

The Army appears to be preparing to build a port, and has deployed several ships that carry some of their maritime equipment. gCaptain has a must read on MARAD assets being deployed to Haiti.

The U.S. Maritime Administration announced Monday that MV Gopher State, MV Cornhusker State and SS Cape May will join OPDS Petersburg from California and M/V Huakai from Hawaii.

“Sending these ships will help those on the front line of this effort save as many lives in Haiti as possible,” Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood said. “These ships will add crucial capabilities by supporting operations to move large volumes of people and cargo.”

EagleOne has been talking about Joint Over the Sea Logistics here and here over the last few days, and there is nothing left for me to add regarding expectations of this capability beyond his comments. By the way, M/V Huakai is not in Hawaii, both of the former Hawaiian superferry's are in Norfolk. It's a shame the Navy didn't paint them yet, because that color scheme is ugly.

Both links at EagleOne are worth a read for those of you who want to see how the sea logistics will come together both short and long term, likely beginning by the end of next weekend. It takes a lot of time to put some of this together though, so getting the massive equipment to Haiti is only the first step. People may not like it, but we are one week away from being able to provide a some throughput from sea, but perhaps a month away from being able to truly provide major logistics support on a large scale from sea - assuming everything goes according to plan. The Army project in particular is very expensive and such an operation could cost nearly $40 million or more if the equipment is left behind for a long period of time to support relief in Haiti.

When it is all done, it will be incredible to see, but the type of massive sea based engineering that is being sent to Haiti doesn't come together quickly.

I still have not seen security problems reported in the news that have me concerned... yet, and the weather forecast looks good with no major storms over the rest of the week. I am still very cautiously optimistic about the ability of maritime forces to resolve the logistics issues in Haiti to allow the relief in, but it is still very early in the crisis and the throughput of relief supplies will not significantly increase for several more days.

An air drop of relief supplies, for example, is very dangerous and represents a sign that things are getting desperate on the ground. We have already seen Navy helicopters throw relief supplies out the window to Haitians scrambling underneath. That is another sign of the serious issues in distribution, and immense challenges that must be addressed this week.

The second week will be just as difficult as the first week.

The US Air Force - Haiti Edition

The US Air Force blogging community is tiny, so I thought I'd add something I've noticed with the USAF regarding Haiti. I am not nor will ever attempt to be an expert in the US Air Force, hell I'm fairly weak at naval aviation which I actually do study. I do however know a lot about the US Air Force budget, which only slightly relates to this discussion.

But first, something else. This is a much bigger deal than the almost non-existent reporting on US television gave it. This is an important political statement by the EU, exactly the type of political support necessary to meet the enormous challenges ahead in Haiti.

The European Union on Monday played down suggestions of a rift with the US over the distribution of emergency humanitarian aid in Haiti, devastated last week by an earthquake that may have killed more than 100,000 people.

EU leaders expressed gratitude to the US for keeping open the airport in Port-au-Prince, Haiti’s capital, and said they had received no complaints from non-governmental organisations about the conditions under which aid is reaching Haitians.

The move came as the World Food Programme announced a major escalation of relief aid distribution on the half-island nation, with the giving out of 180,000 ration packs on Monday.

The UN’s biggest relief agency aims to distribute 10m ready-to-eat meals to earthquake survivors in the capital, Port-au-Prince, and elsewhere. Within a month, the goal is to reach 2m people.

There had previously been some complaining by French Secretary of State for Cooperation Alain Joyandet about the job being done by the US at the airport, but apparently the French minister learned how to do the backstroke on Monday. I won't speculate who made the phone call and what was said, but I bet it was an interesting phone call nonetheless.

What was apparently lost on some observers thousands of miles from Haiti is the work being done by USAF Col. Buck Elton and Special Operations Group ONE. Twenty-four hours after a city of three million had its infrastructure destroyed, the government disappeared, and the UN humanitarian mission was decapitated by the earthquake; USAF Special Operations Group ONE had the airport open for use ready to support the largest humanitarian operation in the history of the Western Hemisphere from nothing more than a single long slab of concrete we call a runway.

People do realize that these USAF SOG 1 guys are basically some military dressed dudes in an open tent with communication gear, a few laptops, and if they are very lucky, a portable potty somewhere within walking distance - sitting out in the grass somewhere near the airport runway coordinating air traffic inbound from the entire world, right? Sounds like no big deal from thousands of miles away I guess...

They really are doing an amazing job - from Reuters.

Colonel Buck Elton, commander of the U.S. military directing flights at Haiti's airport, said there had been 600 take-offs and landings since he took over the one-runway airport's traffic on Wednesday, though 50 flights had been diverted...

Elton said the flow of air traffic was improving, with only 3 of 67 incoming flights being rerouted on Saturday, and only two flights diverted on Sunday.

The airport apron can only handle one wide-bodied plane and five narrow-bodied planes at a time, plus other aircraft that can be parked on the grass.

There is an Air Force issue to watch for. MSNBC reported on TV Monday that the rest of the 82 Airborne Division will have to be brought in on chartered commercial airlines, because there are not enough heavy lift aircraft to support the requirement. I have not seen a print report of this yet, but Andrea Mitchell said it on her show Monday.

The report suggested not all the equipment would be able to be brought in to Haiti immediately with the 82nd Airborne, and would come later. If that is true, then I suggest perhaps Congress should be exonerated for pushing for more C-17s and C-130s on top of the President budget requests over the last few years, and this should serve as a reminder that Secretary of Defense Gates has been wrong to push for the cancellation of those programs. The C-130 has been criticized over the last few years, but when I look on TV and see the runways, I see Coast Guard and Air Force C-130s basically carrying this US effort in Haiti.

To see more about US Air Force activities in Haiti, you can follow on the official US Air Force blog.

Molto Bene!

The Italians are coming!

Bryan McGrath

Looking for Political Leadership in Haiti

A few stories to read from overnight to give a sense of the situation on the ground.

Haiti earthquake: confusion at airport hampers aid effort - UK Telegraph
Security fears mount in lawless post-earthquake Haiti - Washington Post
U.S. Troops to Help Haiti's Security; Aid Flows In - New York Times
Aid frustration: 'We're racing against the clock' - USA Today
Haiti quake severely strains telecom services - USA Today
Haiti PM fears 200,000 dead in quake - CCTV

This story from USA Today, Body count, lawlessness rise in quake-ravaged Haiti, gives the general tone of the breakdown of order.

Conditions in earthquake-ravaged Haiti grew worse Sunday as thousands of survivors begged for food and water, bulldozers dumped bodies into mass graves, and lawlessness increased.

Bulldozer after bulldozer dumped buckets full of corpses mixed with debris into a mass grave at a cemetery in downtown Port-au-Prince, the capital. Arms and legs of victims dangled from the side of one bulldozer's bucket as it prepared to dump bodies into a trench full of rotting, bloated bodies.

Just outside the cemetery gates, a young man who had been shot three times lay in a pool of blood on the sidewalk. Residents said police had suspected the man and three others of stealing.

"They lined up all four and shot them," said Clifford Cadet, 15, who explained that he'd seen the developments from the opposite sidewalk. "This one took three shots," Cadet said of the man lying on the ground.

Keep in mind these are the people who are in charge in Haiti. Great starting place, eh? Rajiv Shah is leading the US effort from Washington, but can you name the American in charge on the ground in Haiti?

As SOUTHCOM tells the press, U.S. military forces are mobilizing to support international disaster relief efforts underway in Haiti following the Jan. 12 earthquake that ravaged the Caribbean nation. The focus of the mission, named Unified Response, is search and rescue and disaster relief. All military efforts are in support of USAID, which is orchestrating U.S. government contributions to the relief mission.

Lt. Gen. P. K. Keen is leading Joint Task Force - Haiti from Port-au-Prince, but who is in charge of the entire US humanitarian effort in Haiti? USAID, not the DoD, is the lead agency. The humanitarian effort isn't even a primary DoD role in Haiti, and security was expected to be the role of the UN although I believe the US has been factoring into planning the DoD would play some role there. Will the DoD also find mission creep with the humanitarian relief aspect as well? The US government has not answered US media questions why NGOs and DoD are so uncoordinated in Haiti, and on the ground in Haiti, who would even be the person responsible for answering that question?

Leadership matters a lot right now, specifically political leadership in a country that has absolutely no political leadership at all that can be counted on. President René Préval has not even addressed his own people yet regarding the earthquake. It is still my impression the Obama administration appears to be completely unaware of how much trouble Haiti can bring upon his Presidency. Where is the Michael Brown of Haiti so we can get some answers? At least that fool was in Louisiana. We should be managing the coordination problems better than has been done to date, suggesting there is something within the system that is not working as expected.

My best guess is that Lt. Gen. Keen is the American in charge in Haiti, but if true, that raises several questions regarding the leadership arrangement. Are we really expecting an Army General to represent the US political leadership inside Haiti? That doesn't sound right. Should we really be surprised that the rest of the world is starting to criticize the US government over Haiti, when the political leadership situation in Haiti is so murky? The population in Haiti is completely disconnected from their own political leadership. 6 days later not a single American can name who the American political leader in Haiti is, and the UN continues to tell the world how beat up they are in Haiti.

Things will continue to get much worse inside Haiti before they get better. Lots of pictures of Marines by media may slow down or distract from global criticism of the US, but we'll have to wait and see. Even as hundreds, potentially thousands, will die again tomorrow throughout the hospitals in Port-au-Prince; we have not reached the tipping point.

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The Navy has established a Haiti Earthquake Relief website. This article lists several new ships heading to Haiti, and notes USNS Grasp (T-ARS 51) has arrived. I think all of us are curious what USNS 1st LT Jack Lummus (T-AK 3011) is bringing to Haiti.

One of the Great Stories From Haiti

If you are trying to figure out what to read from Haiti that will add both value and impact to your day, you can't go wrong here. That might be the best blog post from an official government blog ever, so naturally it comes from the Coast Guard.