**See updates at bottom of article.
There are many reasons to be cautiously optimistic, even if the images that will beam into your television screen over the next 48 hours are likely to leave one with a different impression. The President dispatching the Secretary of State to Haiti was an important political and strategic move in support of Haiti, because it sends exactly the right message to the rest of the world. It is unlikely that most Haitian people in Port-au-Prince were even aware of her visit.
The issue is time. The time for recovery operations will end in the very near future and transition to becoming the largest relief operation in the history of the Western Hemisphere. The purpose of Hillary Clinton's visit is many fold, but basically the Secretary of State trip was strategically important to buy time for the United States, the United Nations, and the government of Haiti. Lets briefly examine in reverse order.
The communication emphasis by the State Department is that the Haitian government is leading the effort. There is apparently some truth in that, because the Haitian government effectively led the Toussaint L'Ouverture International Airport in Port-au-Prince right into a logistical nightmare Thursday. They had to fail first to concede operations of the airport to a more capable authority, specifically the US Air Force. Within the context of the unfolding international effort, there will be times the Haitian government will attempt to lead and be allowed to fail in order for more competent authorities to take control. This process has caused delays already in many ways, which is why the US, UN, and international community has to politically buy time for Haiti so the government will get out of their own way. NGO experts who understand Haiti privately will frame this a different way, much less kind than I. We may see more examples of this over the next few days.
The United Nations also needs time.
The leadership of the United Nations was decapitated by the earthquake, and as a truly international force each member has been working recovery efforts towards their own people first - as they should. As recovery shifts towards relief, the UN effort will likely become more visible but will remain concentrated to a limited number of locations. Communication challenges are significant for the United Nations, and it will restrict to a great deal what they are capable of doing out among the people until those issues are addressed sufficiently. It will take a great deal of time for the UN to pick itself back up in Haiti, the loss of hundreds of experts and leaders has significantly set back the UN in Haiti, and they need time to regroup.
The United States also needs time, and Hillary Clinton's visit today buys a few days. CCTV, Al Jazeera, BBC, and a great number of other news organizations around the world remain focused on Haiti - the whole world is watching. Barack Obama cannot afford for the world to lose confidence in US efforts to support Haiti. It is a serious political consideration because when the world thinks you are not doing a sufficient job, it can create political distractions. Barack Obama does not need political distractions right now, something leaders in the rest of the world could potentially create. I suspect that one of the next big moves by the White House will be to call for a large international meeting of world leaders to discuss the Haiti situation.
As has been discussed,
there are significant strategic interests to the United States at stake. If the US is seen as not sufficiently responding to Haiti in our backyard, it opens up the US to global criticism that will create all kinds of political problems for the President. Rivals will insure our important allies notice that should we be unable to help a country only a few hundred miles from Florida, we would unlikely be able to live up to our commitments in Asia, the Middle East, and elsewhere. If you saw any press conferences today, particularly the Biden press conference, the administration is making emotional appeals that include patience globally by stressing the enormous scope of the disaster and complexity of the effort to respond. The effort is on throughout government at almost every level to set expectations through strategic communications.
It may not make some NGOs happy that the Secretary of State visited Haiti because her plane went instead of someone else, but the parochial issues of a very few NGOs had created other problems we'll discuss in a minute.
The United States Navy is about to do many amazing things in Haiti, and it is going to be interesting to watch it unfold on television. Before looking ahead though, lets review the last 48 hours.
On Friday the
USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) was only able to fly 15 sorties all day, with the helicopters reportedly sitting idle on the flight deck by late afternoon and all night Friday night. Night operations were restricted at the airport because of unlighted power lines and no lights for the control towers. Why were they idle during the day and fly so few sorties?
Rear Admiral Ted Branch explains:
"We have no supplies at the airport that we have access to. There are other supplies there that are under the control of other agencies, other organizations and we haven't yet coordinated together to make those supplies available for anyone to deliver," he added...
"We need to get that kind of supply chain process energized to have an efficient route point for the supplies. Unfortunately that doesn't happen overnight," Branch said.
The commander noted that some supplies remain at the airport, and could easily be delivered by US helicopters.
"The problem is, some people are perhaps not ready to release their stuff to the most efficient transportation makers and want to deliver supplies themselves."

Some NGOs were complaining that the US Secretary of State was able to go to Haiti, and their supplies were not allowed in. Well, when a few NGOs made their own relief effort a bigger priority than the overall effort to help the people of Haiti, I imagine that didn't sit well with the Secretary of State. The priority changed, at least for some flights on Saturday, to getting relief supplies to Haiti that can be delivered by the US Navy helicopters that have more mobility in the area than the NGOs expecting flights.
Rear Admiral Ted Branch may have said "
that doesn't happen overnight," but based on everything I read and saw on Saturday it looks like he did indeed straighten out whatever supply chain problems there were for his forces overnight. See the
USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) Facebook page for photography of Saturdays operations. The USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) is building up capability to very shortly begin providing relief to several hundred thousand Haitians a day.
Over the last 48 hours several other activities have been set in motion. The Friday night
press conference by SOUTHCOM was excellent. We learned the State Department is supporting a Haitian government radio station and that there were 24 helicopters by Friday supporting relief operations in Haiti. On Saturday morning ADM Roughead told reporters at the USS Independence (LCS 2) commissioning that
the Navy intends to build an airport in Haiti. The statement was unclear whether that means expanding the current airport, or start from scratch.
Rear Admiral Victor G. Guillory told the media
the Navy is focused on the Port-au-Prince port facilities, and there are several vessels heading to Haiti to assist in that effort. Currently off the coast of Haiti is the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), USS Higgins (DDG-76), and four Coast Guard cutters. 22 MEU expects to arrive on Monday on USS Bataan (LHD 5), USS Carter Hall (LSD 50), and USS Fort McHenry (LSD 43), although I read a rumor that USS Carter Hall (LSD 59) may arrive Sunday, being one day ahead of the other two ships. En route is the very important
Coast Guard cutter Oak, a buoy tender that can do significant good in the port.
This report goes on to note:
Other ships on the way to assist in the operation are the dock landing ship USS Gunston Hall (LSD 41), the cruiser USS Normandy (CG 60), the frigate USS Underwood (FFG 36), the rescue and salvage ship USNS Grasp (ARS 51) and the oceanographic survey ship USNS Henson (T-AGS 63). Additionally, several auxiliary ships from the Military Sealift Command (MSC) are en route and will provide fuel and supplies to sustain the Navy force at sea throughout the operation.
The most noteworthy ship deployment is not mentioned in that Navy report:
USNS 1st LT Jack Lummus (T-AK 3011) is scheduled to depart Jacksonville for Haiti on Sunday. Despite being the
last asset listed under Navy on the SOUTHCOM Fact File, I believe this is the second most important vessel yet to arrive in Haiti, with the
USNS Comfort (T-AH 20) (PDF) being the first.
It is hard to imagine how any other single asset in the world can
significantly change the logistics situation in Haiti more effectively than what I expect to be coming on USNS 1ST LT Jack Lummus (T-AK 3011). I suspect she will arrive on Wednesday, which means the Navy may have a Sea Base built and ready for receiving relief by sea by next weekend,
just in time for the CNO to talk about it at CNAS on the 26th.
Also not mentioned but listed by SOUTHCOM to be heading for Haiti is USNS Big Horn (T-AO 198), for obvious reasons.
The security problem to date appears to be manageable, even though there are some areas of the city relief workers are being told not to go into right now. The 22 MEU Marines can fix that problem until the UN is ready to resume management, and absent a widespread breakdown of civil order there may be enough boots on the ground to get on top of the relief effort. Based on press reports I am presuming the 24 MEU with Nassau ARG and additional forces from the 2nd Brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division represent the reserve force for security should that become necessary.
There is still one very significant problem ahead. Haiti can suffer from outbreaks of disease on a normal day, and the conditions in Haiti are ripe for a major outbreak. There are thousands of Haitians in need of medical treatment today that will die over the next week. Thousands. The rush to get medical supplies and mobile hospitals into Haiti is not to save those people; many of them will die. The rush is to insure the medical facilities are in place should and perhaps when the major disease outbreak occurs in Haiti. If medical support is on the ground in time, a disease breakout can be managed. Without those NGO hospitals up and supplied, this goes from the very bad it already is to a completely different form of bad we've never seen unfold on live TV before.
Over the next few days, things will continue to get worse in Haiti before they get better. There are many degrees of worse that are still possible though. Right now, only thousands more will die from infection. There is still the potential thousands can turn into tens of thousands, or more, and the resources necessary to prevent the continuing slide towards tens of thousands or more deaths will not yet be in place by late Tuesday afternoon, the one week anniversary of the earthquake.
We are starting to see what the plan is and how it will unfold over the next week. From here on out there is nothing left to do but watch it unfold, observe whether we sufficiently planned the response, and observe to see if we are adaptive to crisis situations that may still emerge. I am cautiously optimist that this is going to work, and when I see the CNO speak on January 26th, it could very well be one of the best public relations days in the Navy to date in the 21st century. I pray it is, for the sake of the people in Haiti.
Update: And update from Captain Conrad Chun, CNO Spokesman.
ADM Roughead DID NOT say "that the Navy intends to build an airport in Haiti." What the CNO said, as stated in the referenced Reuters article is that we were "literally moving in an airport," referring to the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson on station off the coast of Haiti.
Apparently I took the CNO too literally.