Mexican Marines Kill Drug Lord

Yesterday, Mexican Naval Infantry killed one of Mexico's top drug lords. Apparently, the Navy is viewed as more reliable than Mexico's other security services. The article doesn't indicate how often the 8000 strong Naval Infantry is used for such missions. Historically, navies have been able to stand apart from domestic political disputes because they play less of a role than armies in internal security. This may have made the Naval Infantry ideal for this particular mission, although again I don't know how often Calderon turns to the Navy to solve such problems.

The Responsibility to Protect Sea Turtles

NPR had a mildly interesting piece this weekend on the efforts of the Mexican Navy to protect endangered sea turtles in Oaxaca. The turtles are valued on the black market for a number of properties, and would quickly disappear without protection. With protection, of course, value rises and incentives for poaching increase. This story isn't new; the Mexican Navy has been conducting the operation since the early 1990s. Nevertheless, it's an interesting example of what navies can do in service of tourism and of local economic management.

On a related note, I'm curious as to why the Mexican Navy has always maintained a relatively low profile. In general, Mexico has pursue a minimalist strategy in terms of defense; in spite of having a large and relatively affluent population, Mexico has typically ranked very low in terms of Latin American defense spending. Unlike the nations of the Southern Cone, Mexico never made an apparent effort to join the dreadnought race, or to acquire an aircraft carrier. Mexico has also been slow, for a country its size, to pursue purchase or construction of an amphibious warfare capability, although it does possess two old Newport class LSTs. The obvious explanation for this is the proximity of the United States. That explanation leads in two different directions, however. Has Mexico maintained a low defense profile because the proximity of the US means that Mexico has nothing to fear (from anyone except the US)? Or has the US pressured Mexico to maintain low defense spending? Any thoughts welcome...

...here is a conference paper on potential Mexican membership in NATO.

Approaching the waterline in Mexico

Many recent reports would lead you to believe that the Mexican government is about to collapse. Yes, the violence along the border has been staggering, but the idea that Felipe Calderon is on the verge of losing control couldn't be farther from the truth. In fact, the opposite is true. Calderon is squeezing the cartels to the point where they have begun fighting each other for increasingly limited turf and the government is feeling the backlash.

It's important to note that the violence does not represent the cartels' death throes, especially since corruption isn't going to disappear overnight in a country as poor as Mexico. The more apt comparison would be to a cornered animal.

There has been a surge of arms heading south across the border. Interception of heavy-caliber automatic weapons is becoming common. Even shipments of grenades and rocket launchers are popping up. With both sides pushing and neither willing to cede, bloodshed is only going to increase. As places like Juarez look more like Anbar than a depressed border town, the shadow of terrorism is already appearing. From The Hill:

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), whose district borders Mexico, said that while the situation is bad, it could easily get worse.

“The goal of the cartels is to make money,” said Cuellar, who sits on the House Homeland Security committee. “If they can smuggle in drugs and human cargo, then certainly they can smuggle other things in, other devices to cause us harm.”

Before the cartels were being pinched, talk like this could be attributed to fear-mongering. Today it looks like a credible concern. All of this has implications for the maritime threat environment that is conspicuously missing from the current discussion.

With so much pressure on land routes, the arms, human and narco-traffickers are inevitably going to try and exploit sea routes on both coasts. These routes create tangled international considerations that are not present in the conflict as it stands now. Sea-based trafficking is traditionally the forte of the Columbian cartels. Who will control this space as traffic spills over? The Columbians could look to increase their margin and at the same time be less reliant on a perilous Mexican environment by smuggling the goods on their own. Conversely, Mexican cartels might not tolerate being pushed out of the cocaine game and assert themselves in a place and manner never necessary before.

Far from the margins is FARC, a dangerous Columbian revolutionary organization that has been around since the 60s. FARC has known ties to Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, the Castros in Cuba, Basque separatists in Spain as well as the Mexican cartels.

There’s no way to know how this will all play out or how many of these factors will come to bear. At a minimum, we can assume enforcement efforts on land will push the traffic into the water. Both the Navy and Coast Guard should be ready to deal with this surge alongside the Mexican navy. I’m positive plans are in the offing, but part of those plans should involve a large deterrent show-of-force similar to what took place during the Haitian rebellion in 2004.

The U.S. feared a mass exodus of migrants taking to the sea during the protests before Aristide was deposed. A slew of Coast Guard cutters were ordered there and formed a ring around Haiti’s half of Hispaniola. Well within sight of the coast, the presence deterred any attempt at mass migration.

If a similar tactic is taken in the Mexican border situation, the sooner it happens, the more effective it will be. The cartels are likely planning for an increase in maritime trafficking. It will take some time to build-out their fleet of vessels, more if they lean towards semi-submersibles, less if they opt for the traditional go-fast, cigarette boat type. The farther they go down either road, the more committed they’ll be to the maritime approach, and less likely to reconsider this option.

If the cutters had not arrived in Haiti until after an exodus had begun, it would have been an unmanageable situation with Haitians and yolas everywhere, many in distress. Stopping or aiding those already at sea would have limited their ability to slow the tide. In the same way, if the cartels pass the point of no return in preparing for increased waterborne trafficking the effectiveness of deterrence will be almost nil. At that point we’ll already be on our heels and responding to their moves.

If, on the other hand, we can muster a hefty show-of-force soon enough, we may be able to keep the war on these cartels contained within confines that we determine. It will also remain a trilateral engagement with the Mexicans, the cartels and us, avoiding the complications of interdiction at sea, like waiting days for SNOs or DOJ evidential requirements.

In our favor, the mechanisms for a formidable show-of-force are already in place. JIATF is a strong and diverse body. Diplomatic and naval arrangements with Mexico are very strong especially with the recently ratified Merida Initiative in place.

The time to engage is now before the floodgates are opened.

Observing the Violence on US-Mexico Border

Why is the Politico reporting that Texas Gov. Rick Perry is asking the federal government to deploy 1000 National Guard along his states border with Mexico? Well, check out this analysis for additional context.

The lawlessness along the mexican border has gone way beyond a local crime wave: there has been a dramatic increase in armed robberies, not by lone gunmen but by heavily armed gangs. Kidnappings and homicides are way up—and not just murders but beheadings. Police are getting into shootouts where they are frequently outgunned. It is starting to look like a terrorist campaign. Rail lines and bridges are being sabotaged, and now an entire train has been derailed and its passengers assaulted and robbed.

Isolated ranches and small towns have turned into virtual garrisons. Economic activity, especially in southern Texas, has seriously declined. People are frightened, and they are mean. Everyone seems to be carrying a weapon and shooting on suspicion. Mexicans are the targets. There have been disturbing reports of summary executions and lynchings by vigilante volunteers.

Central government authority no longer exists in the Mexican states along the US border. Warlords, commanding their own armies, are gunning down their rivals. Except for refugees heading north and guns being smuggled south, commerce across the frontier has ceased to exist. Some of the gangs are holed up in their sanctuaries just across the border, but the government in Mexico City cannot, or will not, bring the situation under control.

Although much of the violence along the border appears to be purely criminal, evidence of a subversive political plan has been uncovered. Mexican extremists have declared it their goal to recover the “lost territories”—land taken from Mexico after the Mexican-American War in 1848.

The plan calls for enlisting Mexicans residing in California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas in a campaign to terrorize and drive out the Anglo population, thereby ending decades of what the planners call Yankee discrimination and tyranny. The movement, which apparently draws on support from some of the warlords in Mexico, appears to have few adherents on the American side of the border, but it could be the forerunner of a large-scale uprising on US territory. As a consequence of the terrible economic situation caused by the violence, there are many unemployed, restless men who might be receptive to radicalization and recruitment. And if the situation in Mexico is not brought under control, foreign foes of the United States, determined to distract US leaders from issues elsewhere in the world, will find opportunities to exploit. With the new challenges the US administration faces overseas, Washington has reason to fear unrest on its own territory.

At first I thought I was watching Glenn Beck, but this is actually some outstanding analysis on Mexico coming from RAND. You have to keep reading to get it...

The United States has already deployed more than half of the mobile forces of the US Army on the border with Mexico. The president’s federalization of the National Guard to reinforce the regular forces has brought an additional 150,000 troops to the frontier. Military commanders want a freer hand to go after armed groups just across the border, but that could easily lead to war with Mexico. The Mexican army is no match for US forces, but limited US forays into Mexico might achieve little, while an invasion and occupation could prove costly. The president is desperate to eliminate the possibility of an incident that might compel US military intervention in Mexico, which some prominent political leaders argue is the only solution.

This grim assessment of the situation is not some imaginative movie script extrapolated from recent headlines or a hypothetical future scenario to be gamed at the Pentagon. These events—the crime wave, the armed attacks, the beheadings, the lynchings, the scheme to recover the lost territories, the deployment of much of the US Army and almost the entire National Guard—actually occurred in 1915 and 1916, when the Mexican Revolution left northern Mexico in chaos.

This is a great article, read the whole thing.

According to that Politico article linked at the top, there have been over 1000 deaths so far this year along the US-Mexico border, and it is only March 4th. The Mexican Army has the lead role in stopping the violence on the Mexico side, and there are signs of positive early results from the massive reinforcements arriving this week.

It is time to start discussing political solutions that change the flows between Mexico and the US. The status quo is the United States importing the worst products of South America through Mexico while exporting American currency instead of American product back to South America. The money from drug use in America, yes even the occasional pot smoker, is killing a lot of people and tearing the social structure in Mexico apart while promotion corruption throughout South America.

Without critical attention given to political efforts to change the flows both in and out of America and Mexico, the violence will not stop, and this will grow first into a security problem until it finally reaches the point of a military problem. The recommendations near the end of the RAND article are as good a place as any to start the conversation, even if they are not politically popular. Clearly the war on drugs has failed.

Somehow we need to change the system and take on illegal drugs the same way we have taken on tobacco. Is that even possible without legalization of some drugs? Is legalization even a legitimate solution or is it simply rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic? I honestly don't know, but fighting the source is a failing effort without an unrestricted Sherman style scorched earth approach. Not only is that politically impossible, but the tactic would only create bigger problems. The only real solution is to significantly reduce drug use in the United States, which means applying the supply and demand approach. Reduce the demand, and the violent side effects of the supply will be reduced as well.

My thinking is this on legalization. As someone who has worked in government, I believe that any product we really want to screw up can be IF we apply a healthy dose of government bureaucracy combined with as much regulation and taxation as possible. For better or worse, that approach has certainly worked for tobacco and encouraging people to quit smoking. In New York, cigars are almost too expensive to enjoy on a nice summer weekend day by the pool.

I said almost...

Want to read something else interesting regarding Mexico? Another gem from RAND.

Photo: Alfredo Estrella. Photo shows wooden crosses standing where victims of Mexico's drug wars were murdered in Ciudad Juarez, state of Chihuahua. Eleven men, including a university student athlete, have been killed in the last drug-related violence to hit near the US border in northern Mexico, officials said.