Hurricane Irene Tours US East Coast

The US Navy has been busy preparing for Hurricane Irene. Below is a list of ships that were already underway, sortied from Hampton Roads, and moved around in port to insure their safety.

Ships already underway (Aug. 25, 2011): 11
(1) Submarine
(2) Submarine
(3) USS Vella Gulf (CG 72)
(4) USS Donald Cook (DDG 75)
(5) USS Bulkeley (DDG 84)
(6) USS Nitze (DDG 94)
(7) USS James E. Williams (DDG 95)
(8) USS New York (LPD 21)
(9) USS Gunston Hall (LSD 44)
(10) USS Leyte Gulf (CG 55)
(11) USS Laboon (DDG 58)

Ships sortied from Hampton Roads (Aug. 25): 27
(1) Submarine
(2) Submarine
(3) Submarine
(4) USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69)
(5) USS Cole (DDG 67)
(6) USS McFaul (DDG 74)
(7) USS Porter (DDG 78)
(8) USS Jason Dunham (DDG 109)
(9) USS Nicholas (FFG 47)
(10) USNS Arctic (T-AOE 8)
(11) USS Arleigh Burke (DDG 51)
(12) USS Gonzalez (DDG 66)
(13)USS John L. Hall (FFG 32)
(14) USS Taylor (FFG 50)
(15) USS San Jacinto (CG 56)
(16) USS Mahan (DDG 72)
(17) USS Oscar Austin (DDG 79)
(18) USS Winston S. Churchill (DDG 81)
(19) USS Mason (DDG 87)
(20) USS Bainbridge (DDG 96)
(21) USS Elrod (FFG 45)
(22) USS Kauffman (FFG 59)
(23) USNS Kanawha (T-AO 196)
(24) USS Wasp (LHD 1)
(25) USS Ponce (LPD 15)
(26) USS San Antonio (LPD 17)
(27) USS Oak Hill (LSD 51)

Safe haven ships: 28
(1) USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75)
(2) USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71)
(3) USS Kearsarge (LHD 3)
(4) USS Ashland (LSD 48)
(5) USS Carter Hall (LSD 50)
(6) USS Barry (DDG 52)
(7) USS Stout (DDG 55)
(8) USS Forrest Sherman (DDG 98)
(9) USS Gravely (DDG 104)
(10) USNS Patuxent (T-AO 201)
(11) Submarine
(12) USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7)
(13) USS Squall (PC 7)
(14) USS Thunderbolt (PC 12)
(15) Submarine
(16) USS Enterprise (CVN 65)
(17) USS Fort McHenry (LSD 43)
(18) USS Normandy (CG 60)
(19) USS Ross (DDG 71)
(20) USS Hurricane (PC 3)
(21) USS Monsoon (PC 4)
(22) USS Tempest (PC 2)
(23) USCGC Shamal (WPC 13)
(24) USCGC Tornado (WPC 14)
(25) USCGC Zephyr (WPC 8)
(26) MV Prevail
(27) MV Hugo
(28) MV Hunter

Credit CDR Elissa Smith of 2nd Fleet for the list. CDR Phil Rosi of COMAIRNAVLANT also passed on that "all mission capable aircraft that could evacuate, did." In 72 hours the Navy moved or prepared hurricane conditions for 66 ships and a very large number of aircraft. It will be interesting to see how well the family preparation activities went in conjunction with these necessary operational activities, because if that went well too the job done here by the Navy is simply incredible.

One thing I note watching all of this, aren't there something like 190,000 employees at Newport News? I've seen few stories on how they did preparing for the storm.

Anyway... once ships went to sea, the mission changed.

"Our ships have safely maneuvered out of the way of Hurricane Irene, to avoid the destructive winds and seas," said Vice Adm. Daniel Holloway, commander, U.S. 2nd Fleet. "We are now in position to respond if called upon to meet emergent needs and provide support to efforts along the east coast of the United States with a variety of capabilities from the sea including search and rescue, medical support and aviation lift."

USS Wasp (LHD 1), USS Gunston Hall (LSD 44), USS New York (LPD 21), USS San Antonio (LPD 17), USS Oak Hill (LSD 51) and USS Ponce (LPD 15) are available to support the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the U.S. Coast Guard with search and rescue efforts and medical evacuation if requested.

Wasp and other amphibious and support ships have helicopters available that can provide heavy and medium lift from a sea based staging area, provide surface/air ship-to-shore movement, search and rescue and trauma response capabilities and are ready to render assistance if called upon.

Navy P-3 Orion aircraft are poised to provide full motion video capability after Hurricane Irene passes in order to provide the government the ability to see what ground conditions are like in the aftermath of the storm.

Additional heavy and medium lift helicopters are being made available to support from the land as well. Other units are making preparations to support if required and include: a mobile dive salvage unit, a naval mobile construction battalion air detachment, an underwater construction team and an expeditionary command element naval mobile construction battalion.

The Department of Defense is planning at the broader level as well.

Fort Bragg, N.C.; Joint Base McGuire - Dix - Lakehurst, N.J.; and Westover Air Reserve Base, Mass., have all been designated as FEMA Incident Support Bases (ISB). As such, we have already prepositioned 225 non-DoD trucks loaded with equipment, food, water, and generators at Bragg. Supplies and equipment are in the process of being moved to the other ISBs now.

Additionally, 18 DoD helicopters are deploying to the Northeastern United States to be ready to provide critical life saving and life sustaining support should it be needed. These aircraft are being pre-positioned close enough to render swift assistance, but out of the way of the Irene's path.

Eight helicopters are deploying from Fort Stewart, Ga., to Fort Drum, N.Y. An additional 10 helicopters are afloat on the USS Wasp, an amphibious assault ship out of Norfolk, Va. As with many ships in the path of the storm, the USS Wasp has moved out to sea and out of Irene's way. It will follow in behind the storm and be ready to render assistance as required.

At this time, approximately 101,000 National Guard members are available to the governors of the East Coast states, territories and the District of Columbia if needed.

This includes personnel in the following: Connecticut, District of Columbia, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Virginia and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

I'll be watching for a few things.

First, will FEMA know how to use US Navy capabilities? I think there is a good argument to be made that FEMA has poorly utilized US Navy assets in domestic humanitarian assistance in the past. Six amphibious ships is a major capability. The Coast Guard would know what to do with them, but will FEMA? Something to watch for.

Second, this has the potential to be a heavy causality event primarily because we are talking about so many major concentrations of people that are directly impacted. It's simply a matter of statistics that raises my concern. If a Category 1 hurricane that impacts 250,000 people kills something like 30 people (as we have seen in the past in the Gulf Coast area), extrapolated a Category 1 hurricane that impacts 33 million people could kill nearly 4,000. All I am suggesting is that the law of averages might apply here, so I praise every precaution being taken by the regional political leadership.

Third, not sure if you are aware, but the Northeast has had massive amounts of rainfall in August. Philadelphia, for example, had already set a monthly record for total rainfall in August before Hurricane Irene arrived. The same rain has fallen across the Northeast, and speaking regionally, the Hudson and Mohawk rivers were both pretty high as of yesterday. If the storm track follows the Hudson River north as some forecasts suggest, New York City could be for double trouble with the original hit, then a second hit of massive water flow south from the Hudson. More likely, what I expect to see is that the River water folks will let the Hudson river flood out a bunch of folks in the Hudson River Valley north of the high property areas near the city. Either way, there are all kinds of ways communities in the Northeast could take it on the chin from Irene, or how NYC could see a lot more flooding than what they get just from the original landfall of the hurricane.

Oh and for the record, I'm hoping smart folks at Second Fleet are pondering to themselves something along the lines of..."We should send USS San Antonio (LPD 17), USS New York (LPD 21), and USS Eisenhower (CVN 69) to New York City." The safest bet for the US Navy right now is that whatever big US Navy ships get sent to New York City harbor will be pictured in every newspaper across the globe. In my opinion, the Navy should send the ships they want to be the stars of their show, and for my taxpayer money that is the Nimitz and San Antonio class in this fiscal climate (but I'm also noting that both classes are specifically designed to contribute during disasters in major population centers with water, supply, medical, and transport). Am I suggesting taking advantage of a natural disaster to position ships in places where they will be seen by American taxpayers and voters as a political ploy for more funding?

Your damn right I am! Any credit they get will be as a result of their effort earned though, because just showing up to a natural disaster isn't enough. See FEMA during Hurricane Katrina in 2004 for a modern example.

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I am very likely to fall off the map for a few days if there is a major power event in upstate NY, which is very likely IMO because we are built for snow up here, not this. That sinking feeling I have is my siding decorating the various lawns of the neighborhood, but luckily I do not think I am in danger of flooding. My Twitter account will be active even if my blogging goes dead, so look for me there.

Stay safe all.

Operation Tomodachi: Following USS Tortuga (LSD 46)

This story continues to interest me. USS Tortuga Loads Japan Ground Self-Defense Force Vehicles By Task Force 76 Public Affairs.

Sailors aboard USS Tortuga (LSD 46) and soldiers from the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF) Northern Army loaded vehicles and trailers pierside in Tomakomai Ko, March 15, in support of earthquake and tsunami relief efforts.

Tortuga’s crew loaded 13 jeeps, 10 utility trailers, six water trailers and three humvees via crane onto the flight deck and additional equipment via landing craft into the well deck, totaling 90 vehicles and 300 JGSDF soldiers.

"This is an extraordinary opportunity for us. Seeing these vehicles on our ship really demonstrates the bonds between the U.S. and Japan," said Cmdr. Adrian Ragland, commanding officer of Tortuga.

Tortuga’s visit to Tomakomai Ko, though brief, marks the first time a Navy ship has ever pulled into the port. After the ships brief stay, Tortuga will offload the equipment in Ominato, which will be used to transfer supplies, personnel and water to areas affected by the earthquake and tsunami in northern Honshu in support of Operation Tomodachi.

US amphibious ships have conducted exercises for years with the men and material of other nations embarked on our ships, but I am curious... is this the first time it has been done during a real operation? I really don't know, I keep thinking it has happened in other humanitarian operations before, but I am not sure.

Can anyone educate us?

Operation Tomodachi Update

The Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group has become one of the largest collections of US naval firepower deployed globally. Having been directed to provide humanitarian assistance to Japan, the Strike Group is also the largest US naval task force for disaster recovery since the earthquake off Haiti last year.

USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76)
USS Chancellorsville (CG 62)
USS Cowpens (CG 63)
USS Preble (DDG 88)
USS Fitzgerald (DDG 62)
USS John S. McCain (DDG 56)
USS McCampbell (DDG 85)
USS Mustin (DDG 89)
USS Curtis Wilbur (DDG 54)
USNS Bridge (T-AOE 10)

The Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group is conducting relief operations off the East coast of Japan. Assuming the aircraft carrier is supporting operations points north of Sendai, the aircraft carrier is a minimum of 50 miles (and likely more) away from the Fukushima nuclear plant suffering from radiation problems.

As if debris in the water and winds with nuclear radiation didn't add enough hazards to the relief operations from sea, a winter storm added visibility problems and impacted flight operations yesterday. Specifically, the USS Ronald Reagan was unable to fly any sorties yesterday due to visibility problems, although other ships in the Strike Group were able to conduct relief operations.

Have you ever been involved in one of those wargames where the challenges being thrown at the players started to feel completely unrealistic? First an earthquake, then a tsunami, then radiation and potential nuclear fallout, then a blizzard, etc...

Welcome to Japan.

Disaster relief and humanitarian assistance operations off northeast Japan are being conducted in remarkably difficult conditions. There are always enormous challenges with disaster relief and humanitarian assistance operations, but the environment of the disaster zone has elevated the challenge in Japan considerably.

USS Essex (LHD 2)
USS Harpers Ferry (LSD 49)
USS Germantown (LSD 42)

We will start hearing about operations from the Essex ARG within the next 24-48 hours, and this will have the look and feel of serious business. Aircraft carriers are great and can do a lot of things, but when you really need helicopter operations - what you want is a LHD.

The Essex ARG is expected to take position off the coast of Sakata on the western coast of Honshu and has already been tasked a primary mission to assist in the reopening of Sendai airport for operations. This gives me the impression that the Sendai airport is soon to become a major hub for international relief, at least until the port of Sendai can be restored for taking goods from sea.

USS Tortuga (LSD 46)

The ship was last reported loading equipment and supplies in Tomakomai, Hokkaido. The ship is expected to transfer personnel and vehicles of the Japan Ground Self Defense Force from there to Onimato tomorrow. The operations of USS Tortuga (LSD 46) will be an important story when this is over regarding the flexibility of amphibious ships, as the vessel has primarily been used to move Japanese supplies, personnel, and equipment around instead of US Marines. It may be hard to find a better example of international cooperation when this is over than the activities of the USS Tortuga (LSD 46).

USS Blue Ridge (LCC-19)

The Flagship of the Seventh Fleet is expected to arrive near Okinawa tomorrow and begin taking on quite a few people and equipment for delivery north. The ship is expected to spend a few days around Okinawa while loading on many reserve duty specialists whom I presume are being flown in from CONUS.

USNS Safeguard (T-ARS 50)

The ship reportedly delivered high-pressure water pumps to Yokosuka last night and delivered to Yokota Air Force Base for further transfer to the Government of Japan for employment at the Fukushima power plant. Four additional pumps were delivered from Sasebo this afternoon.

MV Westpac Express (HSV 4676)

This ship has been busy. On March 14 the ship moved a FARP (Forward Area Refueling Point) from Okinawa to Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni where it was moved forward to Yamagata Air Field, which allowed aircraft and ground transportation vehicles to refuel while delivering support to those affected in the Sendai region.

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The US Navy and Marine Corps response has been given high praise so far from the Japanese government, and there are already dozens of photographs that are beginning to tell the story. The US and Japan have had an interesting relationship over the past few years as both nations have wrestled with political differences on specific issues. With so many US citizens living in Japan, specifically from the military services who are at this time providing relief and support, it is going to be very interesting to see how that political relationship develops after this crisis.

Japan is the home of the 31st MEU. This relief operation will represent a very rare occasion where US Marines - best known for storming foreign shores - are involved in a major relief operation in support of their home. This is different than most relief operations, because in the case of many Marines and Navy personnel supporting this relief operations in Japan - their families live in Japan too.

As one email put it, "This is not like Indonesia. I have friends who live near Sendai. I have a friend whose family is still missing. Japan is where our kids go to school. Japan is our home."

Sea Base Developing Off Japan

Based on the information released from various press outlets and the 7th fleet, a Sea Base appears to be developing off Miyagi Prefecture to assist Japanese authorities with providing at-sea search and rescue and recovery operations. The US contribution of this sea base will be centered around the USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76), USS Chancellorsville (CG 62), USS Preble (DDG 88), USS McCampbell (DDG 85), USS Curtis Wilbur (DDG 54), USS Mustin (DDG 89), USS Tortuga (LSD 46), and USNS Bridge (T-AOE 10).

A number of US Navy ships will be following this initial force including the Essex ARG and the USS Blue Ridge (LCC 19).

Early reporting suggests the US Navy forces will be tasked to support primarily Japanese SDF but also US Navy and Marine Corps helicopters for search and rescue operations in the area, as well as provide humanitarian operations as requested. This disaster response and humanitarian assistance Sea Base will be very similar to the Sea Base established off the coast of Haiti in early 2010, except in this case the Sea Base will be more international in nature with Japan taking the lead in tasking.

Japan is leading the disaster response and recovery effort. Based on various news reports, Japan has dispatched 50,000 troops to the region including over 190 aircraft so far. Japan has asked for the US military to transport 900 troops and 250 vehicles as part of the relocation of thousands of Japanese SDF troops from various regions of the country. News reports also indicate a large (but unknown number) of Marine Corps helicopters are being shifted from Okinawa to bases north in Japan to support operations.

While it is unclear what role the US Marine Corps will play in Japan, one possibility is that the Marine Corps will serve in a more logistical role in supporting SDF rescue and recovery operations. With transportation throughout the impacted region impacted, logistics will likely be very difficult in the first few weeks.

Another support service US Navy personnel are expected to undertake involves resupplying or augmenting in some way medical services throughout the impacted region.

With the USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) expected to serve as a helicopter support base offshore for both US Navy and Japanese SDF helicopters, once again the nuclear powered aircraft carrier is poised to be the most versatile and flexible capability in responding to the needs following an international catastrophe.

Tsunami Updates

From 7th Fleet:

There have been no reported injuries of any 7th Fleet personnel, and no reported damage to 7th Fleet assets.

Ships in port Yokosuka stationed linehandlers to made adjustments as the water level changed in Yokosuka harbor. No damage has been reported to any of the ships.

Ships in Guam have been directed to sortie if feasible. Ships unable to sortie will initiate full personnel recalls and be standing by to adjust lines during changes in sea level.

CTF-72 (Maritime Patrol and Reconnaissance Force) headquarters in Misawa was briefly evacuated. It continues to be without power and is operating from a generator

CTF-76 (Amphibious Force) headquarters in White Beach, Okinawa, has moved its watch to higher ground at Kadena AFB, Okinawa, in anticipation of the forecasted tsunami.

We are assessing the situation and positioning forces so that they are ready to respond and provide disaster relief if directed.

USS ESSEX, with the embarked 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, arrived in Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia, this morning. The ship is making preparations to depart as early as this evening.

USS BLUE RIDGE, which arrived in Singapore this morning, is onloading a Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief (HADR) kit and making preparations to depart tomorrow morning.

USS TORTUGA, currently in Sasebo, Japan, is making preparations to embark LCUs and get underway as early as this evening.

We are initiating a full muster of all 7th Fleet personnel in Japan, and accounting for the condition of their family members.

To reiterate, this is simply a posturing of forces. We currently have no direction to conduct disaster response operations. Such a direction would come only following a request from the Government of Japan

You can keep an eye on official announcements from the Commander, Fleet Activities Sasebo Japan Facebook page and Commander Fleet Activities Yokosuka Facebook page, both which seem to be continuously updating about every hour so far.

Tsunami expected to hit Hawaii between 8am and 9am EST. The speed of the wave is apparently in dispute? Closer to 9am is what I am hearing.

Anti-Piracy - Cooperation Is Only Part of the Solution

The number of articles calling for action against piracy in the Indian Ocean is increasing steadily. It is unclear if the larger number of articles calling attention to the issue will make a difference in policy anywhere, but the issue is certainly on the rise in terms of attention.

With that said, this Economist article raises a point that is very common among many articles attempting to offer a solution. This paragraph bothers me though.

The successful campaign against the pirates who caused mayhem in the Malacca Strait a decade ago suggests that the answer lies onshore rather than offshore. Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore agreed to bury their differences and work together—patrolling, arresting, prosecuting and imprisoning pirates. At the same time as the risks for the pirates increased, conditions on shore improved. The post-tsunami peace settlement between the Indonesian government and rebels in Aceh, where most of the pirates came from, paved the way for investment, economic development and a better way of life.

There are two parts here that must be understood, otherwise the comparisons between Somali piracy and piracy in the Strait of Malacca becomes a false analogy.

Piracy in the Strait of Malacca was not wiped out by the cooperation between Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. That cooperation had no impact whatsoever in curbing piracy that was taking place prior to 2005. None. Yes, there was a remarkable change in piracy between 2004 and 2005, but it had absolutely nothing to do with security cooperation.

It had everything to do with the Tsunami. The Tsunami wiped out piracy in the Strait of Malacca, and the security cooperation that came with the cleanup of the Tsunami helped prevent piracy from rising back up again.

Depending upon ones religion, it is more accurate to suggest God cleaned up Strait of Malacca than it is to credit anything done by man. Sorry, that's just a fact. Security cooperation is helpful, and on the land side it is certainly important once security conditions have been reset - which is exactly what the Tsunami did. In 2004 there were 60 attacks in the Strait of Malacca, in 2005 there were a total of 20. By 2008, when the cooperation began paying off with more law enforcement working the littorals because equipment had been delivered post Tsunami, there were only 2 incidents that year in the Straits. No matter how someone looks at the Strait of Malacca piracy, the Tsunami is what reset security conditions on land, and that is what ultimately enabled security cooperation to work.

If we want security cooperation to work in Somalia, we need to find some way to reset security conditions. Resetting the security conditions in Somalia will almost certainly be messy, but keep in mind the Tsunami killed an estimated 230,000 people, so there is no easy way to reset the security conditions in a region - whether the action is by the hand of man or by the wave of mother Earth.

Pakistan Discussions Around the Web

Chris Albon doesn't have much faith in the local charity groups providing assistance in Pakistan. We saw this in the 2005 earthquake - they were quickly overwhelmed and simply wouldn't go to some of the really bad places. A Marine who was there described it back then with the phrase 'some areas were a block too far for them.'

Nitin Pai has a very thoughtful analysis regarding how the Pakistan floods play out. If that analysis turns out accurate, that outcome furthers the case why it is time to draw down in Afghanistan in my opinion. I am much less optimistic than that analysis though.

The impact to GDP and food that will play out the rest of the year will have serious repercussions - with some economic estimates suggesting Pakistan's GDP could be cut in half this year. The flooding will hit the man on the street in Karachi over the next several months a lot harder than the man on the street understands today. Unemployment will go up, and government funding is likely to drop significantly - including military funding. That adds quite a bit of uncertainty to the situation well beyond the direct disaster impacts.

What Battle For Hearts and Minds

I spent some of the day going over the figures regarding the damage in Pakistan, and the damage that has taken place over the last several days of the monsoon season is beyond what any single nuclear weapon is capable of. Even more interesting, the areas impacted in Pakistan are the areas that every single think tank that has written a report regarding the Afghanistan war has discussed as being a vital part of the war.

And yet... there is virtually no analysis of what this incredible disaster might mean for the war. It is barely stretching an analogy to suggest God just pissed his Sunday afternoon 6-pack all over Pakistan during Ramadan while the national security experts in the US discussed Secretary Gates future. It could be worse, we could be the foreign policy expertise of the United States stuck in a political rut discussing a mosque in lower Manhattan pretending that is somehow the most important Muslim issue on the same day 20% of the second largest Muslim country in the world is underwater.

On Monday I felt like I was living in the twilight zone. These are the official numbers to date, and take care to note that Sindh is mostly unreported and the worst hit.

Province	Villages Affected	Persons Affected	Area Affected (Acres)	Crop Area Affected (Acres)	Houses Damaged		Persons Died	Persons Injured
					Partially	Fully
Punjab	1,527	1,908,015	2,693,436	1,470,989	43,458	44,752	65	196
Sindh	-	-	-	378,976	-	122,798	8	-
KP	581	1,550,256	-	466,451	68,079	105,214	1,011	968
Balochistan	2548	76,845	4,605	321,651	-	19,619	24	98
FATA	-	-	-	6,500	-	1,432	62	59
Gilgit-Baltistan	195	87,000	-	2,949	-	2,820	183	16
AJ & K	-	-	-	9	4,941	1,416	70	87
G. Total	4,887	3,662,116	2,698,041	2,647,525	119,478	298,051	1,423	1,424

Source: Pakistan Minister of Water and Power

There is a long history of natural disaster playing a significant role in the global security condition, or influencing war, or having a significant and generational impact on nations. When considering the scope and geography of this disaster, it would be difficult to suggest that the monsoon floods of 2010 won't have a huge impact on the security of Pakistan, or a significant impact in influencing the war in Afghanistan, or a huge generational impact on Pakistan.

But the issue appears to be invisible. I don't know what to say - maybe it doesn't matter. I would have thought had we nuked Pakistan someone would have written a war related op-ed to discuss the potential ramifications, but if mother nature drowns 20% of the country doing about the same amount of damage over a significantly larger portion of land - it doesn't seem to be important.

A few thoughts come to mind.

1) There are now 18 US aircraft operating for flood relief efforts in Pakistan. They are competing for hearts and minds against the whole of the Taliban allied political wings who live throughout that region of Pakistan. The DoD has elevated the priority of soft power - specifically disaster relief and humanitarian response - in strategic documents over the last few years. Here we are in direct competition for hearts and minds in the midst of a disaster, with the largest concentration of military forces we have assembled on the planet in the neighboring country - and the best we can do is 18 helicopters a week later to help the X millions of people impacted by the flooding?

Pakistani people know the United States unmanned drone very well thanks to their newspapers and our actions in that country against Al Qaeda and affiliates. Here is a chance to put a positive visible symbol of US power over Pakistan at a time the need far exceeds local capacity - and we can't do it why?

2) Private funds to Pakistan is incredibly low for reasons several media outlets have only begun to speculate. Perhaps no one trusts the current Pakistan government, or perhaps people believe donations will go towards helping fund terrorism? I have no idea, but in the first 10 days after the Haiti earthquake the world was able to raise $1 billion. So far the world has raised almost $305 million for Pakistan flood victims - and $86 million is US. Holy WeDon'tGiveAShit batman!

3) Ahmed Rashid sums up the problem better than I ever could:

Though it has received only moderate attention in the western press, the torrential flooding of large swaths of Pakistan since late July may be the most catastrophic natural disaster to strike the country in half a century. But even greater than the human cost of this devastating event are the security challenges it poses. Coming at a time of widespread unrest, growing Taliban extremism, and increasingly shaky civilian government, the floods could lead to the gravest security crisis the country—and the region—has faced. Unless the international community takes immediate action to provide major emergency aid and support, the country risks turning into what until now has remained only a grim, but remote possibility—a failed state with nuclear weapons.

I don't know what the US government has decided to do about Pakistan. Maybe the option of a full court blitz of soft power into Pakistan was offered and denied. Maybe there was no offer for additional help at all, or perhaps the US believes doing very little is better than doing a lot. Maybe we picked teams and mother natures team looked most appealing. Whatever we have decided to do, the only thing that seems clear to me as a bystander half a world away is that this is the most important battle being fought in the Afghanistan war - if Pakistan matters at all to our Afghanistan war objectives.

We have spent a decade talking about how the enemy has a better communication strategy in Pakistan than we do. If 18 helicopters is the best we can do when 20% of that country is underwater - then either our apathy or inability to be agile in reaction to situations like this explains why. It doesn't make sense for us to fight the war in Afghanistan and not be serious about making a positive American impact on this part of Pakistan - not when we keep noting in strategic reviews how much influence this region has on the Afghanistan war effort. We aren't even trying to win the populations that matter in this war - and in my opinion that represents the best case to date why it is time to pull our troops out of Afghanistan.

The European Response to Haiti: United in Diversity

Where Information Dissemination has so far mainly focussed on the US response on the Haiti earthquake, here's a brief analysis of the European response.

Leadership
Let's start with asking that all important question: Who's in charge? The answer to the question is fairly easy. It's Catherine Ashton, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Have we seen her so far? Only very briefly.
The problem Ashton has is that she has 'competition' when it comes to Foreign Affairs. The competition are:
Spain, which holds the current Presidency of the Council of the EU.
Herman van Rompuy, the President of the European Council.
José Manuel Boroso, the President of the European Commission.
All the 27 ministers of Development Aid from the EU members.
Larger members making their own policy (think about France with its international donor conference).

This all makes that there is one guarantee with a EU answer to problems: it takes about forever before there's a general agreement on actions to be taken.

As a Dutch saying goes: with Baroness Ashton the EU isn't going to win the war. She was absent from European Defence Summit in Majorca on february the 24th, the first one since her installment. Javier Solana always attended these meetings and at this one NATO secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen was also present. Ashton, however, decided that it was much more important to attended the inauguration of President Yanukovych in Ukraine.
That doesn't give much hope for the future.

Money
So the only thing that the EU has commonly decided on is to pledge €330 million in aid. (That only took them SIX days, so it was a really quick response in EU-time.)
But member states have also pledged money separately. The Netherlands national government has promised about €44.5 million besides the EU offer. So it's almost impossible to figure out what the total amount is. Especially because some of the amounts are hard to decipher. Let me explain why that is.
That Dutch promise is made up of the immediate offer of 1 million. Later 2 million was added and then another 41,5 million. The last amount came about because the Dutch minister of Development Aid promised to match what the Dutch public would raise during a telethon. But only in the Dutch press the distinction is made everywhere else you only see the total amount of €83 million raised by the telethon.

Assets
The EU has hardly any assets, but its members do. So in true EU style there was hardly any coordination of all the individual efforts.
So what happened was some mad dash to send planes to Haiti. But it's a long flight to Haiti from Europe and a fair amount of planes couldn't land in Port-au-Prince because the airport was clogged up. The delays weren't too dramatic though, so these small scale efforts went reasonably well.

But the large scale effort is a real disappointment. Where are all those European LPDs, LHDs and carriers that were built because the future, since the Cold War is over, is in Sea Basing and disaster relief?
A few in Haiti, but mainly not going at all. And that's disappointing, since in total the EU members have 6 CV's, 2 LPH's, 2 LHD's, 11 LPD's, 4 LSD's

Spain has sent a LPD, the UK sent a LSD, Italy a CV and the Netherlands offered a LPD.
But it took these countries more than a week to offer them in the first place and not all vessels actually went. The Dutch LPD HNLMS Johan de Witt didn't go. The reason is the UN has said it will not be needed any more by the time it will get there. Now there's a shocker. That's what happens when you wait too long with a decision.
But the Dutch can now take the moral high ground. They offered and the UN has said it isn't necessary.

The EU will also send a European police force of 350. We all know that's going to be an invaluable contribution next to those 20,000+ American soldiers and 2,000 Canadian soldiers.

Conclusion
The EU members have definitely taken the EU motto “United in Diversity” quite literally. The lack of a coordinated response is certainly what unites them.

Any EU members still wondering why the US world doesn't take them serious, especially on a military level?

Waves of Hope

Very briefly, I'd like to recommend Bruce Elleman's Waves of Hope, Newport Paper #28. It examines in detail the US response to the 2004 tsunami, particularly the role played by amphibious vessels. Worth your valuable time.

All Things Maritime And Haiti

There are so many things to cover. I have not seen much leadership in terms of setting expectations or an explanation from leadership in the State Department explaining how this major operation will unfold. Plenty of information released today in press conferences, but very little stage setting from what I saw.

A few notes. The Red Cross was reported to be out of medicine on Wednesday. UN Dispatch has two interesting items. First:

On a conference call with Medicines sans Frontiere moments ago, a representative in Haiti said that all of the hospitals to which it would normally refer patients have either collapsed or are otherwise unusable. All MSF can do at the moment is administer first aid. There are no "referral" options for secondary care beyond first aid, but MSF is exploring options to deploy a "floating hospital" to Haiti.

That report goes on to highlight reasons why the UN mission to Haiti may have been compromised by the overwhelming damage, at least for the time being. As an organization it is currently self involved with reestablishment, unable to engage the surrounding issues.

In a later report, UN Dispatch discusses the health care issues facing the population. While reading it I thought back to the TB outbreak on Comfort last year.

Want to see useful open source technology in action? Check these guys out. Google has a cool little tech operation for Haiti from their Crisis Response Team (yes they actually have one). Works with Google Maps.

The Coast Guard

The Coast Guard always arrives first when disaster strikes near the US. What an amazing organization, and when we consider it is smaller than the NYPD, I would argue we get more per dollar as a nation out of the Coast Guard than any other entity in government. This is a great report of ongoing Coast Guard activities by Lt. Cmdr Chris O'Neil. The 270 ft Coast Guard Cutter Forward arrived just after dawn and did an assessment of the Port Au Prince port.

Coast Guard personnel observed multiple oil and fuel spills as well as possible sewage spills in the area of the port, about one to one and a half miles from the coast. They also reported seeing multiple small fires along the shoreline and significant damage to or destruction of infrastructure at the port.

Damage to port infrastructure is reported to include the port's container crane and other cargo cranes. Some of the cranes are reported to be completely submerged and others appear damaged but the extent of the damage cannot yet be fully determined.

The article also discusses two Jayhawk sorties for medical evacuations on Wednesday and the work conducted by five different C-130s. How many C-130s does the Coast Guard have again? The Coast Guard Cutter Mohawk arrived off Haiti Wednesday afternoon, and the Coast Guard Cutters Tahoma and Valiant will be in the area by Thursday. The Tahoma is loaded with relief supplies for earthquake survivors, but one of the Cutters is expected to stay at Guantanamo Bay providing a 3 in Haiti / 1 in Guantanamo Bay arrangement. You can see video of the C-130 flyover here, and some additional photos here. I very highly encourage folks to view this 7 minute video of Admiral Thad Allen on the situation, it is excellent.

• The Coast Guard Cutter Valiant is a 210-foot medium endurance cutter homeported in Miami, Fla.
• The Coast Guard Cutter Mohawk, a 270-foot medium endurance cutter, is homeported in Key West, Fla.
• The Coast Guard Cutter Tahoma is a 270-foot medium endurance cutter homeported in Portsmouth, N.H.
• The Coast Guard Cutter Forward, a 270-foot medium endurance cutter, is homeported in Portsmouth, Va.

The Navy and Marine Corps

It takes longer for the Navy and Marines to get anywhere than it does for a service like the Air Force, or in this case the Coast Guard. While the Air Force opens up the airport and the Coast Guard inspects the port, the Navy will not show up until Thursday. The time of arrival for the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) is unclear, but it doesn't matter. The helicopters will arrive long before the ship does, and if there are enough helicopters moving over the city the people will notice. The pictures on Navy.mil show HS-7 and HSL-11 deploying to USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70). There have been several indications by Navy information personnel to expect updates to the carriers Twitter and Facebook pages.

I want to make a brief point here. There have been 3 Admirals on C-SPAN in the last 6 months, and only once was it on an issue related to the sea - that was the BMD change. Every other time you see an Admiral on C-SPAN it is Mullen or the topic is prisoners at Guantanamo Bay. The media is focused on Haiti, and the symbol of American power is going to be the largest thing everyone can see - USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70). Be visible, take pictures from the air that include the carrier, and turn USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) into a symbol of hope. The Navy doesn't have a single Admiral actually in a Navy post today (which means Stavridis and Mullen don't count) who is recognizable by the average American, but every American knows what a Nimitz class aircraft carrier looks like - as does the rest of the world. Showcase the ship, because it is a symbol and symbolism matters in soft power. The whole world is watching.

Also expected to arrive tomorrow is USS Higgins (DDG 76), which is on the home stretch of her deployment. Originally deploying as part of the Nimitz CSG from the Pacific, USS Higgins (DDG 76) spent most of her time in the Med operating as the BMD ship for 6th Fleet. According to the Navy USS Higgins (DDG 76) will provide afloat logistical services for Coast Guard helicopters. I suspect that given the length of her deployment to date, her participation in the relief effort will be brief but necessary until other assets arrive.

USS Bataan (LHD 5), USS Fort McHenry (LSD 43), and USS Carter Hall (LSD 50) are coming with the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU 22). USS Normandy (CG 60), USS Underwood (FFG 36) and USS John L. Hall (FFG 32) will also deploy. Navy News has created a Twitter group for those who want to follow all the government activities. I suggest adding it to RSS.

As most of us know, but no one outside the maritime community appears aware, the USNS Comfort (T-AH-20) will take 5 days to get underway. The hospital ships are on 5 days readiness, and that actually means it takes 5 days from the moment the ship is put on notice before she can sail. Hospital ships are not rapid response assets. However, I think this is important for us to note.

Hospitals are said to have been devastated and overwhelmed by the injured. One clinic director sent out an e-mail plea after the quake: "Port-au-Prince is devastated, lot of deaths. SOS. SOS."

Joseph said Haiti was most in need of a hospital ship stationed in Haitian waters, as well as supplies to help keep residents safe and warm.

Joseph is Ambassador Raymond Joseph, his appeal for a hospital ship was the first public government request made to the US in his AM press conference on Wednesday morning, as recorded in the time line at the AlJazeera Blog. That is best evidence regarding the influence of Naval Medical Diplomacy you will ever find, better than any population polling data ever produced. When talking hospital ships, can you say strategic asset?

Considerations

Half the Haitian coast guard personnel stationed at the port were killed by the earthquake.

There is a legitimate National Security Risk Assessment that has yet to be discussed anywhere in the media, at least that I have seen. The annual immigration season from Haiti to Florida by sea usually begins in February every year. If it has historically been easy for Haitians to choose the risks of sea immigration when they have a home and family, how much easier is it for a Haitian to risk the dangerous journey when their home is destroyed or family is dead? This is a critical point, because the US is in big trouble if 100,000 people, or potentially a lot more, attempt a massive migration at sea following this catastrophe. The Obama administration is going to have to spend money - potentially many billion dollars - to keep three million homeless people in Haiti. This a serious problem that will directly impact you and me unless you are somehow stupid enough to believe the US is ready to absorb the cost of a mass immigration of a population with a high illiteracy rate at the same time the government intends to pass National Health Care to protect the poorest in our country.

Do the math. How many soldiers does your COIN manual say it takes to control a population of 3 million homeless, hungry people? Haiti has no military, and the Haitian National Police numbers 8500 - for the entire country. Even if we count the 2nd Brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division and 2 Marine battalions, we come up well short of what will be necessary based on the doctrine for population security adopted by our lessons learned in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The US will lead in Haiti, even ahead of the now destroyed Haitian government and until we decide it is time for the UN to step in. In the 2004 Tsumani, the US had this amazing partner that did a tremendous job - India. Who will play the role of India in Haiti? It matters a lot if Haiti is as bad as some have estimated, because this has the potential of being the largest military effort in the western hemisphere in at least a century.

Earthquake in Haiti - Updated

By now I believe everyone has heard about the earthquake in Haiti overnight. As the nation turns to the maritime services to respond and assist our southern neighbors, the blog will naturally be observing these events.

This may develop into something very similar to the Tsunami response, as among other things, it appears Port-au-Prince has been completely destroyed, and the death toll may already be in the thousands including all UN staff there. The infrastructure of the country is likely completely wiped out, which will make the recovery very difficult.

For those who haven't heard, the son of recently retired CHINFO Frank Thorp IV has been in the news of the earthquake. I missed the morning shows participating in a blogger roundtable with ADM Stavridis, but the latest word I caught was that Frank's son was able to rescue his wife, although her condition is still unknown.

RADM Frank Thorp was not only the first Admiral, but among the very first naval officers who reached out to contact me when I began writing the blog. I ask this community to keep his family in our prayers, as well as the many others devestated by this massive natural disaster to our nations south.

Updated: First, on this blog, family comes first. I want to pass on something from RADM Frank Thorp's Facebook page.

Thank you to everyone for your outpouring of support for Frank and Jillian. Last we heard was that Frank was able to help rescue Jillian from the rubble of her Mission House and they are on the way to the embassy, possibly to be medevac'd... They understandably want to stay and help what they tell us is an absolutely... horrible and catastrophic situation... Please keep them in your thoughts!

Good news.

If you find something interesting or have a comment on the developing situation regarding Haiti, please note interesting news items in the comments. If you Navy information observers would leave links to your official articles, I would also appreciate it, including any links to photos taken.

It looks like the Navy is developing a massive Sea Base operation centered around the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), the USS Bataan (LHD 5), USS Fort McHenry (LSD 43), and the USS Carter Hall (LSD 50) with cruisers and frigates in support (note helicopter capable vessels). Also as should be expected, significant Coast Guard and assets from other services are being mobilized as well, so far I think I have seen 4 different cutters mentioned.

The USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) in particular will be what I am watching. With significant fresh water production capacity, that may turn into one of the most important early assets needed. It cannot be overstated the strategic and tactical significance of a large deck aircraft carrier arriving quickly to this situation. Consider for a moment what it means to look out into the sea following this disaster and seeing the distinct and globally recognized silhouette of a Nimitz class aircraft carrier. That really is by definition strategic communication of hope that the US is there to help. We should never take that symbolism for granted should we wish to remain a global power, as that soft power influence factors strategically well beyond the capacity for critics who desire to create hard power tactical alternatives.

There are rumors of helicopter packages being prepared for deployment on the Vinson, if you know the squadrons please leave in comments. Ironic the USS Wasp (LHD 1) was there just a month ago with a deck full of helicopters working with the Haitian military - suggesting we have recent mil-to-mil relationships to build upon when securing the population should the UN mission indeed be compromised.

As more information comes available, it is worth keeping an eye on the scheduled deployment of the Nassau ARG next week, and if I am not mistaken the USS Kearsarge (LHD 3) may be an asset close to that area as there have been pictures on navy.mil this week of their activities preparing for an upcoming deployment, although they must be north as they appear to be cold in those photos.

A Decade In Perspective

We like to think 9/11 was the event that defined the last decade, but that would not be correct. The correct answer is the South Asian Tsunami of 5 years ago.

Consider for a moment that even if you add up all the casualties from all the terrorist attacks globally since 9/11, include all deaths related to violence in the Afghanistan and Iraq conflicts, military and civilian, the total combined for the whole decade still falls short of the number of people killed on one day five years ago today.

When you think about square pegs, round holes, and how to spend money in influencing change, the 2000-2009 decade is a case study should we ever want to learn from our mistakes.

And people can't figure out why the amphibious ship is the most active ship in the US, or why countries globally are building more amphibious ships? When one factors in other tsunami's, earthquakes, hurricanes, flooding, and other natural disasters globally, the influence of terrorism compared to the influence of mother nature on life and property is disproportionately small given the global expenditures.

On "Faces to Places"

I had quite a bit of feedback today about the salvos Bryan and I traded in the comments of his post yesterday. In particular, Bryan said something that triggered all kind of interesting commentary, and brought the phrase "Faces to Places" in my Inbox several times.

I was off doing things Sailors do when John Morgan called to tell me I was going to come write strategy. How did this happen? Well, Jim Stavridis recommended me--just like he recommended me nine years earlier to the CNO to be his speechwriter, and just as he and Walsh and Pandolfe and Morgan and others like them have always done and continue to do.

Bryan in this example is putting "Faces to Places," putting the right guy in the right place at the right time for the right job. His record and reputation speaks to what a smart move those leaders made in putting him in that position. The question is whether this is the exception or the norm? I don't know, for lateral movements in an organization, I could see where it could be the norm. For promotions though, I wonder if it is the exception? I think there is a discussion lingering in the air on that topic.

While this rarely used phrase, or perhaps buzzword, kept popping up today in my email I was looking at the HA/DR activities of 7th Fleet, and noted Rear Admiral Richard B. Landolt appears to be who is running the show. I had never heard of him before today, and had never read Rear Admiral Richard B. Landolt's biography before today either, but ever since I did I have not been able to shake this phrase "Faces to Places" from my mind. Check this out...

Rear Admiral Richard B. Landolt received his commission via NROTC at the University of Florida where he earned his bachelor's of Arts in Political Science.

He has served at sea aboard USS Morton (DD 948), USS Niagara Falls (AFS 3), USS Cayuga (LST 1186) and USS Roanoke (AOR 7). He commanded USS Ardent (MCM 12), forwarded deployed to Manama, Bahrain, USS Gladiator (MCM 11) and USS Fort McHenry (LSD 43) forwarded deployed in Sasebo, Japan. His Major command tour was of Amphibious Squadron 11, also in Sasebo, Japan.

Landolt served two tours on the staff of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a staff planner and subsequently as the executive assistant for Commander, Naval Forces Europe and Joint Forces Command, Naples Italy.

His shore duties include tours at the Bureau of Naval Personnel as head of surface placement (Pers-413) and as a federal executive fellow at the Rand Corporation where he studied NATO policy and Asian Affairs. On the Chief of Naval Operations Executive Panel (N00K) staff he served as the assistant for long range plans.

He’s been a senior fellow on the Chief of Naval Operations Strategic Studies Group (SSG XXIV), and deputy director, Expeditionary Warfare Division (N85B) on the Navy Staff.

He assumed duties as commander, Amphibious Force 7th Fleet in Okinawa, Japan in June of 2008.

A graduate of the Naval Postgraduate School, U.S. Marine Corps Command and Staff College, and the Armed Forces Staff College, Landolt also holds a Master’s degree in Telecommunications Systems Management.

Are you kidding me? It is almost as if this mans entire career has been building towards executing at the strategic level a large scale, regional wide humanitarian assistance and disaster response operation, and now that this almost impossible scenario of multiple massive natural disasters across a vast region has arrived, the Navy has the right guy is in the right place at the right time with the right resources?

Pardon my Persian, but that is pretty damn impressive!

PACOM on Point: Responding to Disasters

The response from PACOM to the numerous natural disasters all over the Pacific is fairly large, and in the Philippines in particular the media is taking notice.

First up, USS Cleveland (LPD 7) and USS Rushmore (LSD 47) are in Guam. Guam was able to avoid Typhoons, but the ships will be able to participate in community projects while the USS Bonhomme Richard (LHD 6) catches up.

PACOM has sent C-17s to Indonesia and is also sending the USS Denver (LPD 9) and USS McCampbell (DDG 85) to help out. Some news reports suggest more ships are also being sent, but I have not seen any specific details of that yet. The death toll from the earthquake is expected to exceed 3,000.

USS Ingraham (FFG 61) is providing support to American Samoa following the Tsunami there, and the CO is expected to give a bloggers roundtable tomorrow at 3 EST. I unfortunately, will not be able to make it but look forward to the transcript. You can listen to the Q&A live here at that time. In the same region, New Zealand appears to be preparing to send HMNZS Canterbury (L421) to the island nation of Samoa in a humanitarian response deployment.

Finally, a few thousand Sailors and Marines from USS Harpers Ferry (LSD 49) and USS Tortuga (LSD 46) are in Manila to assist the government of the Philippines in their relief efforts in the wake of Tropical Storm Ketsana and Typhoon Parma.

Facebook users might want to check out the incredible images from all of the disaster recovery efforts on the US Pacific Command page. In particular I recommend the images of the Marine convoy delivering to massive crowds, with everyone standing in 2 feet of water. That country is a mess.

Image: PAGO PAGO, American Samoa (Oct. 3, 2009) - A Sailor assigned to the guided-missile frigate USS Ingraham (FFG 61) carts away rubble and debris during disaster recovery efforts in Pago Pago, American Samoa. The region was struck by an earthquake and tsunami. The Department of Defense is supporting the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) with its relief effort. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech Sgt. Cohen A. Young/Released)

7th Fleet Focus: Natural Disaster... Again, and Again...

Keep an eye on this. 7th Fleet has its hands full with natural disasters this week. Not only have we seen 2 tsunamis, one in American Samoa no less (which should be the top priority), but we have already seen one Typhoon hit the Philippines this week... and now a Super-Typhoon is inbound.

The Philippines declared a national “state of calamity” as Typhoon Parma headed for Luzon, where recovery efforts continue six days after Tropical Storm Ketsana devastated Manila and its surroundings, leaving 293 people dead.

Authorities began moving people from provinces north and southeast of Manila into shelters, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro said in an interview on ABS-CBN television. The nationwide state of calamity gives the government the power to peg the price of basic goods.

Parma’s eye was 254 kilometers (158 miles) northeast of the city of Daet on Luzon at 2 p.m. Manila time today, the U.S. Navy Joint Typhoon Warning Center said. The typhoon is forecast to make landfall after 8 a.m. tomorrow.

I expect we will see the Reagan CSG pop up right after the Super-Typhoon passes as "Johnny on the spot" ready to help. The Navy blogosphere is trying to nail down some blogger roundtables with folks in the Pacific dealing with the natural disaster situations in the Pacific, hopefully something comes of it.

Expect a lot of discussion on this topic over the next week. We have elevated HA/DR as a core emphasis of strategy, and the anniversary of CS-21 is almost here - a perfect opportunity to evaluate HA/DR's new emphasis. We see natural disasters in places like the far southeast of 7th Fleets AOR and the far southwest of 7th Fleets AOR, and 2 major typhoons in a row now hitting the Philippines, right in the middle of 7th Fleets AOR.

The Pacific is gigantic, that is a lot of range to cover and it is very hard for ships to do it quickly. This is the real life scenario of multiple unlikely natural disasters hitting the same region again and again and again, all resulting in massive damage and high causalities. They used to call wargames and simulations of this scenario unrealistic... can't say that anymore.

This Super-Typhoon about to hit the Philippines can have geopolitical ramifications; weather often does. We have seen how weather influences piracy, but if you recall, it was the Tsunami of 2004 that pretty much wiped out all the piracy in the Strait of Malacca in 2004, and piracy at that time was as bad as Somalia was last fall.

Oh, and remember all that Chinese naval power that was supposed to be ready to respond to Natural Disasters? It is nowhere to be found. Watch the Pacific news commentary, a lot of people have begun taking notice, and are mentioning it. We may yet see it though, should this Super Typhoon slam into China...

And there is another Super Typhoon forming behind this one...

Here Comes Ike

Interesting development at sea.

Hurricane Ike's winds have thwarted a rescue attempt for the crew of a freighter stranded in the Gulf of Mexico.

The Coast Guard says that the five Coast Guard and Air Force aircraft, hauling rescue swimmers, were forced to land in Lake Charles, Louisiana.

Petty Officer Tom Atkeson tells The Associated Press that the planes encountered winds of 80 knots or about 92 miles-per-hour when they reached the freighter. At that point, the ship was adrift about 120 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas.

More details as of 2pm CDT.

A Coast Guard jet has flown over the vessel, the 584-foot-long coke carrier Antalina, and reported the ship in good shape, pointed into the wind as is desirable and the crew okay as of 2 p.m. CDT (1400 GMT), a spokesman said.

I have been unable to locate a picture of the vessel. Just guessing, I'd estimate the ship to be around 30,000 dwts, but have not seen any reporting regarding the load of the ship, only that it left Houston to escape the storm.

Just in case you are wondering, the USS Bataan (LHD 5) returned to Norfolk from its hurricane exercise. I get the impression NORTHCOM doesn't see a role for naval vessels in response to Ike. I suspect the Navy is moving aviation assets towards the area, but we'll have to wait for the briefings for details.

With the potential necessity to rescue 37,000 and a hurricane about to hit one of the most important ports in the US, I find the lack of naval ships responding a bit curious.

4th Fleet Focus: Reacting to the Weather

We don't really see this very often.

U.S. Southern Command has directed Commander, Fourth Fleet to divert the amphibious ship USS KEARSARGE (LHD 3) to Haiti to assist with relief efforts in areas affected by flooding due to tropical storm activity in the Caribbean.

Kearsarge will depart today from its present location in Santa Marta, Colombia to Haiti and will join other U.S. assistance operations in the vicinity of Port au Prince on 7 Sept.

Kearsarge is currently supporting phase two of Continuing Promise 2008, a humanitarian assistance mission that includes assisting partner nations impacted by natural disasters and other emergencies resulting in human suffering or danger to human lives.

I'm trying to remember, did Mercy go to the Philippines after the Cyclone as a reaction or part of the schedule? I thought the ship remained on schedule and arrived later. I don't remember Comfort returning to Peru last year when the earthquake happened. During the GFS last year, I also don't remember HSV Swift adapting to hurricane events, or Fort McHenry adapting much during its GFS in Africa.

But lets shoot straight here. Instead of deploying a ship from Norfolk, the Navy is moving a LHD from its regularly scheduled deployment to Colombia all the way to Haiti, while also deploying another LHD to prepare for response to future hurricanes.

Looking at this, it is clear we can do soft power this way and respond big, but it raises the question if the Navy's approach to soft power, HA, disaster response, etc.. is smart. The Wasp class is 6th largest class of warship in the world, and the other five are aircraft carrier classes, 4 of which are single ship classes and only 2 of which aren't US.

After reading Captain Bob throughout his deployment, I'm convinced that forward presence is critical for soft power, and that forward established presence shouldn't be a warship. Let what responds be a warship. I could be wrong, but it just seems we would want to do this without the commitment of our most important ships, even if they are the most flexible.

Tracking Gustav On the Net

Quick note for those who want to track Hurricane Gustav. Not sure if the name Michael Barnett rings a bell, but it should. He was the guy who started a live journal diary to record a few experiences during Hurricane Katrina only to see it blow up into much, much more (read history here). During Hurricane Katrina he was the only blogger to stay online, most notably through his live journal blog Interdictor. Carrying his torch forward, the good folks in the Zipa Datacenter in downtown New Orleans are the only bloggers on the internet that can say they have done this before, so keep an eye on the Gustav Bloggers.

Last time they did an amazing job coordinating IRC channels, offering audio for local police scanners, running a web cam from downtown NOLA, and generally became the place to be online. Yea, some of the old IRC logs are still on the internet from 2005, I even found good ole "Galrahn" in the logs. I kid not when I say these folks are up to the task, and will be who to watch if the worst happens.

Also noteworthy is a Gustav Wiki, which we find to be a very interesting way to record lessons learned in real time for natural disasters, potentially a very useful source depending upon update quality. Admittedly, what we already see is excellent.

2nd Fleet Focus: USS Bataan Responds to Gustav

Navy Times is reporting the USS Bataan (LHD 5) will be putting to sea Monday for potential response for Hurricane Gustav.

The amphibious assault ship Bataan will get underway Monday for what officials are calling a “readiness at sea event”

The ship’s initial mission will be to prepare for disaster response, according to Vice Adm. Mel Williams, the 2nd Fleet commander.

There is some irony, for those who may not remember, the USS Bataan (LHD 5) was in the Gulf of Mexico 3 years ago during Hurricane Katrina, and one of the lessons learned noted how the ship was never well utilized, mostly due to communication problems and agency coordination issues.

As we look observe much of the analysis of this storm, it does appear we can expect to see considerably more damage to Louisiana from Gustav than we saw from Katrina, and an even larger set of problems. Katrina hit Mississippi very hard, but Gustav will end up hitting Baton Rogue and Lafayette with wind damage harder than what we expect to see in New Orleans. With much of the state command and control networks built into Baton Rogue and Lafayette, but with heavy flooding expected in New Orleans, command and control will immediately be tested.

From our point of view, the USS Bataan (LHD 5) deployment is coming a day late, and it is particularly noteworthy the Navy will have difficulty deploying more ships from the east coast if necessary. Hurricane Hanna will soon be influencing the lines of communication at sea off the east coast of Florida, meaning after Monday any other ships will be forced to take the long route through heavy seas around Hanna to help in the Gulf Coast. It will be interesting to see how this develops, but if major damage hits Baton Rogue, Lafayette, and New Orleans, we might end up wishing we had more ships at sea.