Maritime Open Source Intelligence Cyber Tool

SteelJawScribe has my attention, this is easily one of the most interesting internet tools I have seen in awhile. A Live Ship Map built on GoogleEarth technology that allows you to track maritime commerce in certain regions in real time. The map to the right (click to expand) was a live shot from 12:00am EST of the west side of the Strait of Hormuz. Sorry folks, you won't be able to track US Navy ships with this tool.

That big island is Forur I., you can see the west bound traffic moves in the deep shipping lane to the north, while the east bound traffic moves in the deep shipping lane to the south. Those deep water shipping lanes for the big maritime traffic is only 2 nautical miles wide in some places, so you can get a feel for why a big fight between Iran and anyone is a real bad thing for maritime traffic, they simply have no maneuver space and they have to pass within launch range of even small anti-ship missiles. It is a powerful strategic position, and no matter what anyone ever claims, in a war against Iran it would require Marines on that island to secure those shipping lanes.

That is also why China is building its blue water capacity, they know that when, not if, the US moves to alternative energy sources it will be China who has to keep those lines of communication at sea open. All of these things are interconnected, and often abused as fodder in militaristic rhetoric.

The Live Ship Map FAQ defines the purpose as thus:

This web site is created as an academic, open project. It is dedicated in providing free real-time information to the public, about ship movements and ports and our main objective is to expand it to other research applications. The project is currently hosted by the Department of Product and Systems Design Enginnering, University of the Aegean, Greece. The initial data collection is based on the Automatic Identification System (AIS). We are constantly looking for partners wishing to install an AIS receiver and share the data of their area with us, in order to cover more areas and ports around the world.

More on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) can be found here, but this is the overview.

Picture a shipboard radar display, with overlaid electronic chart data, that includes a mark for every significant ship within radio range, each as desired with a velocity vector (indicating speed and heading). Each ship "mark" could reflect the actual size of the ship, with position to GPS or differential GPS accuracy. By "clicking" on a ship mark, you could learn the ship name, course and speed, classification, call sign, registration number, MMSI, and other information. Maneuvering information, closest point of approach (CPA), time to closest point of approach (TCPA) and other navigation information, more accurate and more timely than information available from an automatic radar plotting aid, could also be available. Display information previously available only to modern Vessel Traffic Service operations centers could now be available to every AIS-equipped ship.

With this information, you could call any ship over VHF radiotelephone by name, rather than by "ship off my port bow" or some other imprecise means. Or you could dial it up directly using GMDSS equipment. Or you could send to the ship, or receive from it, short safety-related email messages.

The AIS is a shipboard broadcast system that acts like a transponder, operating in the VHF maritime band, that is capable of handling well over 4,500 reports per minute and updates as often as every two seconds. It uses Self-Organizing Time Division Multiple Access (SOTDMA) technology to meet this high broadcast rate and ensure reliable ship-to-ship operation.

It is noteworthy that we track every airplane in the world, but we only track a small fraction of global commerce at sea, and yet 90% of global commerce moves at sea. Very cool tool, and a step towards Maritime Domain Awareness (PDF).

Tracking Gustav On the Net

Quick note for those who want to track Hurricane Gustav. Not sure if the name Michael Barnett rings a bell, but it should. He was the guy who started a live journal diary to record a few experiences during Hurricane Katrina only to see it blow up into much, much more (read history here). During Hurricane Katrina he was the only blogger to stay online, most notably through his live journal blog Interdictor. Carrying his torch forward, the good folks in the Zipa Datacenter in downtown New Orleans are the only bloggers on the internet that can say they have done this before, so keep an eye on the Gustav Bloggers.

Last time they did an amazing job coordinating IRC channels, offering audio for local police scanners, running a web cam from downtown NOLA, and generally became the place to be online. Yea, some of the old IRC logs are still on the internet from 2005, I even found good ole "Galrahn" in the logs. I kid not when I say these folks are up to the task, and will be who to watch if the worst happens.

Also noteworthy is a Gustav Wiki, which we find to be a very interesting way to record lessons learned in real time for natural disasters, potentially a very useful source depending upon update quality. Admittedly, what we already see is excellent.

China and the Information War

The Federation of American Scientists security blog has an interesting article up regarding PLA activity to limit the effectiveness of Google Earth. I guess they aren't very happy.

Chinese military authorities are paying increased attention to foreign satellite reconnaissance of Chinese forces and operations, and are pursuing countermeasures such as camouflage and deception to conceal sensitive material and activities, according to a newly-disclosed analysis (pdf) performed in 2007 by the DNI Open Source Center.

We enjoy looking at PLAN submarines, but if building underground submarine bases is how the PLAN is coping with Google Earth and other open source satellite imagery, what a great bargain for the United States. You'll have to forgive me if I take a moment and laugh at the insecurity of China in a Google world.

If China wasn't the only economic power in the top 30 hiding their military expenditures, nobody would care. However, the lack of transparency is a problem, in fact the lack of transparency is about the only hurdle facing the US and China in forming genuine partnerships in the 21st century. Secrets on top of secrets hidden behind secrets is not a healthy foundation for partnership.

The report is a quick read of seven pages. Guess we can look forward to a future where electronic jamming and laser dazzling are techniques China uses to conceal the activity of the PLA from the curious eyes of satellite technology. Welcome to the emerging information war.

Jianggezhuang Nuclear Submarine Base

Google Earth has a new image of the Jianggezhuang Nuclear Submarine Base available for those who are interested in such things. Hans Kristensen notes on the FAS Security Blog notes the image was taken on December 5, 2024 by the Quickbird Satellite. As the picture to the right highlights, you can see several PLAN nuclear submarines, in fact we see a total of 6 in port in the photography.

What is noteworthy is the submarine on the bottom. That is the only Type 092 Xia class SSBN, which had previously been seen in dry dock. We also note there are five SSNs in port, which are likely the five older Type 091 Han class SSNs, although it is hard to tell.

While it is understandable why the PLAN would upgrade the Xia, after all, they don't have very many nuclear submarines, we've been speculating what upgrades were potentially given. With the recent discussion of ASAT and SDI, not to mention after reading this post on Conventional Weapons on Trident Subs, I am reminded of an article Bill Gertz published in January that China was "building a submarine-launched direct-ascent missile system." Could it be the Xia was modified to support this initiative?

That reminded me of something else I read, "An Assessment of China's Anti-Satellite and Space Warfare Programs", an 80 page report that was put together following the Chinese January 11th ASAT test. It is a long read, but is the most up to date collection of research in the open source of the Chinese ASAT test, including hard to find materials on a Chinese ASAT strategy. In particular, quoting Professor Liu Huanyu of Dalian Naval Academy wrote an article called Sea-Based Anti-Satellite Platform where he says:

….Nuclear submarines are not only well concealed but can sail for a long period of time. By deploying just a few anti-satellite nuclear submarines in the ocean, one can seriously threaten the entire military space system of the enemy. In addition to anti-satellite operations, these nuclear submarines can also be used for launching low orbit tactical micro-satellites to serve as powerful real time battlefield intelligence support. The main weakness of a submarine is that it is difficult to install detection systems on a submarine. Submarines have a weak capability for autonomous searching and therefore need the support of the national space monitoring system.

That was written in 2004, and that report is loaded with details regarding ASAT discussions that invovled submarines. One wonders what the Xia Type 092 upgrade may have included.

Georgia Update - New Map

Reader Joseph Kern has sent in a map updated with a guesstimate of the ground activity taking place in Georgia. Joseph created the APP6 map symbols himself, and is not providing this as a statement of accuracy, rather as a general guide to get a sense of the action unfolding.



The map and symbols are shared under a Creative Commons: Attribution, Share Alike license.

Georgia Bulldogs, Not Paper Tigers

Given the fog of war, the American press is doing a fairly decent job sorting out the nonsense and reporting the action in Georgia. The only problem they face is the constantly conflicting reports that make it difficult to truly evaluate what is legitimate. This is not easily done, the expected loser here is Georgia, so reporters are hanging out with the expected winner Russia. Both states are controlling information and are consistently reporting both accurate and inaccurate information. This is a real challenge for US media, indeed we read foreign language press and often the reporting is much worse.

For good mostly English blog sources of unfolding events, we recommend a few blogs that are doing some translation for English speakers.

The Vineyard of the Saker
Russia Blog < -- Russian slant, but good for perspective Armenia and the South Caucasus

We will keep looking for other blogs that do translation, but tonight we thought we would update some of our observations.

The internet is still on in Georgia. Russian cyber attacks have been disruptive, but have not been able to keep Georgia from leveraging the internet as an intelligence tool. Russia appears to have targeted the .ge domain for specific government websites, and are pounding the Georgian military networks, but other websites in Georgia in org, net, and other domains are still up, sporadically. This tends to imply Russia is using a targeted attack on government but is not targeting the country as a whole. We note Russia has not been able to eliminate bandwidth, but are jamming a lot of satellite, again sporadicly. Some news sites are still up, but we note mirror updating for other sites is sporadic at best.

We note in particular Russia has a serious intelligence problem with its Black Sea Naval base in the Ukraine. Whoever these guys in the Ukraine are they might as well set up a web cam, because there are some Ukrainian sources giving updates almost every 2-3 hours on activities there. I don't know much about this naval base, but apparently one can look down into the naval base and watch the activity? Is that right?

For the most part, the Ukrainians have strong feelings both ways on this. A lot of pro-Russia, a lot of anti-Russia. In general when talking about Georgia we haven't observed much passion, the passion is for or against Russia.

The map to the right is a tactical that popped up mid day EST on Saturday. Expect it to already be outdated, but good for an early point in time reference.

It would appear the rumor Georgia is a paper tiger would be inaccurate, these guys are more like the Georgia bulldogs. As of the last few hours of this posting, there is quite a bit of action being reported around Tskhinvali, but conventional Russian military forces have apparently not entered the city. Snipers rule the streets, and vehicles on both sides take a pounding when visible. Russia does not appear to have sufficient infantry yet.

Both Interfax and independent sources have noted NATO style vehicles heading north. The Interfax report ran at 14:19 GMT. Anyone have any guesses?

Based on the piecemeal reporting we are finding, it appears the tactic sounds a bit like the way Bing West described the Marine assault on Fallujah. Essentially Russia is working to surround the city with armor and mechanized forces and intends to bring up the infantry (might be the paratroopers that were flown in) to enter the city to support the mechanized units already there. The 58th Army has been blooded, by some reports badly, it appears Georgia is having some success with a combination of irregular and conventional military forces. Both Georgia and Russia have used artillery on Tskhinvali and have blasted the city to hell. The civilian death toll there may be much higher than reported. Multiple sources confirm both sides are using heavy artillery on the city.

Over The Loons Nest also pulled the map below from Warfare.ru and gave some commentary.

According to this website there's a troop level of 185'000 Air Force troops and 322'000 Ground troops, plus some more logistics and other the Black Sea fleet in the North Caucasus Military District. Most divisions have taken part in the Chechen wars.

It is hard to tell how old this map is, but Google Earth does confirm troops in most of these locations as of the last satellite updates. For those who want to match with Google Earth and verify, turn the map of Georgia in Google Earth so that the Caspian Sea is straight up and down on the right side. It will like up and you can find most of the unit locations.

Finally we note that on late Saturday night there were still news reports that the Georgian air force is still flying sorties. We find that incredible! Georgia has a tiny air force, apparently Russia was not aware of all the locations where Georgia was launching its planes, and is reacting on day 3 to watching SU-25s bleed their ground forces.

Update: More on the cyber attacks here and here. We are treating this as confirmation and sourcing for the attacks for our data posted above.

Observing the Outbreak of War In Georgia

With the distraction of the Olympics, Georgia has apparently attempted to crack down on separatists in South Ossetia. Like all grand plans for war, the plan has not gone as expected. The swift Russian reaction by both air and ground implies surprise has not been achieved, if anything one might observe that Russian intelligence programs in Georgia is very healthy, and Russia is who achieved surprise.

Several blogs have offered both analysis and are tracking the reporting as the news breaks. This post by Thomas Barnett is a great early primer for many to shape a historical and strategic view, and Robert Farley is following the news as it flows in over at Lawyers, Guns, and Money. As of this writing the news report we recommend is the thorough analysis put out this afternoon by the New York Times, where this tidbit has slipped through.

Pentagon officials said late Friday that the Georgian government had officially requested assistance in airlifting home the approximately 2,000 Georgian troops now in Iraq. The request was under review, and standard procedures would indicate that the United States Government would honor the request, officials said.

This is the first sign of DoD mobilization for the military events unfolding in Georgia, and simply saying it out loud is sure to bring in a political perspective. Cutting through the spin, the Air Force has been asked and may be ordered to conduct a major airlift from Iraq to Georgia of all 2000 Georgian troops that have been part of the coalition forces in Iraq. That is certainly one twist in events we intend to keep an eye on. The politics of using an air base in Iraq to support an airlift into a war zone outside Iraq is the stuff the political spinners dream about.

Day two of the conflict featured a massive increase in Russian air power, including the use of Russian Strategic Bombers hitting Air Bases and other targets in Georgia. The number of sorties increased by about 4 fold, and we expect will continue to increase. We note this in the NY Times article, which implies escalation is likely.

On Saturday, Russia notified Western governments that it was moving elements of its Black Sea fleet to Ochamchire, a small port in the disputed enclave, a senior Western official said.

A senior Georgian security official said that Russian ships were moving toward Georgia’s Black Sea Cost in order to land ground troops, and that 12 Russian jets were bombing the Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia, another breakaway region that hugs the Black Sea.

Last night the Russian Air Force reportedly devastated the Georgian Black Sea port of Poti. Local language (unverified) internet reports suggest both the Slava class cruiser Moskva and the Kara class cruiser Kerch are part of Russian naval group that deployed, and the Kilo class submarine Alrosa was reportedly not in port. The number of and types of other Russian naval vessels has not been reported. Speculation by some local sources suggests an amphibious operation may be in the works. Specifically there are some local internet reports of activity among the three Ropucha class LSTs. We want to reiterate that these reports are unverified, but note that because of where these unofficial internet reports are coming from, they may be credible.

Several implications here. The use of air power in the Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia and if Amphibious forces are soon to put to sea, the implication is Russia may be looking to opening a second front. The movement of the Black Sea Fleet towards Georgia could be a tactical move to cut off supply to Georgia, and nothing says 'turn around' faster than a Kilo SSK guarding the port entrance. These types of major events give implication that Russia is moving towards a campaign of consolidation, rather than a peacekeeping action. The next few days will tell the story, but it looks like we may need to redraw some border lines in that region in the near future.

Georgia is not well known by Americans, and while we can hear the stories, read the history, and understand the events it is still very difficult to follow events of war in foreign lands. Luckily, it is easier to follow war from home in the 21st century than any other time in history, and all you need is a little advice. This is our advice.

Use the map in this post as a cross reference with Google Earth. Zoom in on Georgia and follow the press reports. While not all places are on the Google Earth map, most are, and one can use markers to track air strikes and where ground forces are based on press reports. Using about twenty press reports this morning we were able to track air strikes and where the ground combat is taking place, thus get a good feel for how early events are unfolding. These are amateur tools using open source media information, but if you were a professional, you would already have the tools to track the action.

We note that despite a number of bombings very near the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, it is reported that the pipeline has 'miraculously' survived undamaged. Such miracles in war are hardly so accidental. As the pipeline is a strategically important aspect of the Georgian economy, but is also a very important part of the regional economy, it is just one more odd detail worth keeping an eye on.

While we are aware of US Navy activity in the Black Sea, we will let other news sources discuss specific forces in the region. It is enough to say the US Navy is there, with exactly the kind of capabilities one would want the US to have in a confusing, evolving war where one country may feel obligated to protect themselves from an attack by sea. Should Georgia open up with anti-ship missiles against Russian targets at sea, or if either side should engage in unrestricted
war at sea in the eastern Black Sea, the US Navy does not have the forces in the region yet to protect or support unarmed commercial vessels. Our advice to commercial shipping is to run west, those waters to the east are not safe.