The Navy is eying potential investments in revolutionary unmanned systemsThe report goes on to note that Naval leaders are looking for autonomous solutions to functions including intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, information management, decision-making, logistics and weapon systems. Killer robots on the loose? Well, no. "Autonomy" is a vexing term, and as a Lawfare research paper notes it is difficult to conceptualize autonomy vs. automation in an absolute sense. Instead, autonomy and automation should be thought of as a sliding scale. Moreover, an autonomous system should be regarded as a component of three interlocking characteristics: frequency of operator interaction, ability to cope with an uncertain environment, and level of assertiveness to alter the means by which it completes human-designated ends.
with greater autonomy than today's drones to counter advanced Chinese
weapons capable of threatening U.S. warships, according to draft guidance
for a new assessment.
Because of the imperfections of language, we will likely continue to use "autonomous" instead of "more autonomous," but we should understand that automated and autonomous are rarely absolute states. A truly autonomous weapon would be one that could alter the ends to which force is applied, not the means. At that point, we've gone too far into the realm of science fiction and Jessica Biel.
Any reader of P.W. Singer's book knows that weapons platforms and command and control systems with greater levels of autonomy are on the horizon, but we've lived with precursors for some time.
Indeed, the advent of missile warfare and modern air defense has necessitated greater automation of command and control systems, and the result has been systems with significant degrees of autonomy. These systems, ranging from the Semi-Automated Ground Environment (SAGE) to the AEGIS arose because the speed of tactical kinetic engagement in some areas of warfare outpaced the ability of human operators to engage.
Others have written more eloquently on the tactical possibilities of autonomous unmanned aircraft and undersea craft in a naval campaign, but some comment on the strategic aspects are warranted. It is likely that such systems will face significant resistance to employment from moral/legal and practical perspectives. The former are overrepresented in the debate, and the latter are underappreciated. Writing about nuclear weapons in the early 1960s, Solly Zuckerman argued that a more technologically complex military that relies on revolutionary weaponry tends to frustrate rather than enable commanders seeking freedom of action. The more complex a weapon, the greater its personnel requirements and backbone of supporting technologies and systems. And when a weapon is politically sensitive, it also will require specialized command and control arrangements that may decrease overall military effectiveness.
There is, however, as I've noted while conversing with Gulliver and Dan Trombly on Twitter, an implicit bias in autonomous weapons discussions against tactically offensive systems. People do not like autonomous robots or autonomous cyberweapons because they seem risky to employ without collateral damage and encourage robo-aggression. But offense and defense is a matter of context. Defensive systems midway on the automated/autonomy spectrum could be easily positioned to support a strategic offensive while sitting on the tactical defense. In regards to naval warfare, one could easily envision a scenario in which naval platforms with defensive systems are concentrated in a theater of engagement to support a primarily offensive joint campaign. Moreover, when it comes to missile warfare even tactical distinctions between offense and defense easily break down.
Likewise, tactically offensive weapons are likely to appeal most to those seeking to mount what they consider to be a strategic defensive. Dictators pursuing domestic regime survival come to mind as do many states with either insecure borders or the threat of great power projection. Due to the higher stakes involved, they will likely possess far less scruples than major Western powers seeking autonomous military solutions.
