Navy Will Stand Up 4th Fleet in July

When we first heard about this in January, we didn't expect it to happen until next year. Apparently, the Navy will stand up the 4th Fleet in July.

The Navy will create a 4th Fleet headquartered at Naval Station Mayport, Fla., and will tap a two-star SEAL officer to lead it, according to a Pentagon announcement Thursday.

Rear Adm. Joseph Kernan, head of Naval Special Warfare Command in Coronado, Calif., has been chosen to command the new fleet. Kernan will take control of both 4th Fleet and the current Naval Forces Southern Command, the Navy component of U.S. Southern Command.

The command will oversee maritime operations in Central and South American waters, and is similar to the command structure of 5th Fleet, which is also Naval Forces Central Command.

Our first impression of this news was that we expected the discussion to focus in on the relationship between the United States and South America. The general decline in relations is something we have discussed in the past as we have observed the mission profiles and intent of the US Navy in dealing with our southern neighbors. We don't observe this event in that context though, the mission in July will be the same mission as today, and the challenges will also be the same, so we will let others lead that discussion.

We see this event in the context of leadership and strategy. We note this is the first strategic decision regarding the direction of the Navy Admiral Roughead has made as CNO. Up until this point, Admiral Roughead had inherited all strategic decisions, whether it was the fleet constitution plan (313 plan) or the new maritime strategy, the strategic direction of the Navy had already been decided by either CNO Clark or CNO Mullen.

Another aspect of this event that sticks out is how the monopoly of leadership may be changing, and that strikes us as important. Admiral Roughead, a surface warfare officer of the AEGIS community, is standing up a fleet to support SOUTHCOM, currently commanded by Adm. James Stavridis, another surface warfare officer of the AEGIS community, but has appointed Rear Adm. Joseph Kernan, who comes from the SEAL community. While that may not seem like a big deal, we explained the other day that we believe that just as the AEGIS community and naval aviation community leads the Navy today, it will be the expeditionary community and submarine community, including COs of XOs of those ship types today, who will make up the Navy leadership of tomorrow. This has nothing to do with a bias against AEGIS COs and XOs, rather we believe as the Navy tackles the challenges of a comprehensive strategy there will be more balance evident in commands. How obvious is this issue? We quote the Navy Times article for an example.

“I am likewise thrilled with the choice of a Navy SEAL for this important and expeditionary job,” Stavridis said “He is the right officer for the challenging tasks in the region, and additionally has a strong sense of theater security cooperation and interaction with our partner nations.”

Although he’s a SEAL, Kernan isn’t a stranger to the conventional fleet. As a junior officer, he served aboard the cruiser Horne.

Comments like that explain why the IA program in the Navy is seen in the context of career killer for officers. We can only hope that Adm. Stavridis didn't emphasize that point, and its the article author who is making that point.

In January my first impression of the 4th fleet proposal was that the last thing the Navy needs to do is add another staff to a shrinking fleet, we now take the opposite position. Given the challenges the Navy will manage in the 21st century, we see the 4th fleet and the 6th fleet as the primary drivers for better balance in leadership promotions, because it is within the responsibilities of these fleets where we believe the conventional warfare forces of the Navy will hold minor relevance to executing strategy.

Adm. James Stavridis, who we believe is the next CNO in waiting, has a lot of interesting comments. We really like these quotes.

The fleet, he said, will be focused on preventing and responding to mass migration of refugees, as has happened in the past in Haiti and Cuba, as well as interdicting the flow of illegal drugs and partnering with countries throughout the region.

“We will also seek to build the ability of the 4th Fleet to work with interagency partners like U.S. Department of State, [U.S. Agency for International Development] and Department of Homeland Security,” he said.

Stavridis said anti-drug operations, humanitarian and cooperative training missions are expected to be the new command’s primary engagements.

We have long believed that as the maritime strategy was developed, Admiral Stavridis was very influential in its direction. 4th fleet represents all the unique, unconventional approaches that will be required to effectively sustain long term peace in the 21st century. While maritime law enforcement will be important, and in that regard traditional naval forces will need to be present, it is the pursuit of the peacemaker objects in maritime strategy where 4th fleet will be focused.

The article continues.

“One particularly important mission for the 4th Fleet will be medical diplomacy, as exemplified by the voyage last summer of [the hospital ship] Comfort, which conducted nearly 400,000 patient encounters during a four-month cruise to 12 countries in the region,” Stavridis said.

This year, the amphibious assault ships Boxer and Kearsarge will “return on similar missions in the region this summer,” he said, “all under the aegis of 4th Fleet.”

Medical Diplomacy continues to develop buzz. While it is not the Great White Fleet we discussed earlier this year, the pattern to use of amphibious ships without Marines for exercising soft power towards our national interest continues. 4th Fleet is going to be interesting to observe, because it will likely be heavy on LPD and MSC and light on carrier and cruiser.

M80 Stiletto Will Get Its Chance

It was selected as one of TIME magazines best inventions of 2006. It fits in a well deck, can support UAVs, claims to have excellent stealth, and is one of the most recognizable small craft in the US arsenal. It is unpopular in many traditional circles inside the Navy, and widely touted in other circles, particularly retired veterans of Vietnam river patrols. It has been claimed capable of performing virtually every brown and green water mission profile, and yet has never been discussed officially as performing any mission profile over the last couple of years.

Luckily, it will soon get its trial by fire, and we will find out what the $6 million M80 Stiletto can really do. This small nugget pops up in the insidedefense.com Defense Alert stack.

DefenseAlert, April 24, 2024 -- An experimental military vessel called "Stiletto" is slated to head toward Colombia next month to help U.S. Southern Command officials there track down drug traffickers, defense officials tell InsideDefense.com.

We see this as a very smart way to use a unique, untested platform. While we believe the hype of the M80 has gone a bit too far since its launch, we are very pleased to see the M80 earn its reputation with this trial on the front lines of operations. Like all unique platforms, maybe we'll see a military channel special this Christmas profiling its deployment? Probably not...

The Navy deserves credit here, it is very wise to send the unique platforms like Sea Fighter (FSF-1) and Stiletto to the front lines of small wars and see what they can do. Gates said it best the other day.

An unconventional era of warfare requires unconventional thinkers.

Given the unpopularity of the M80 Stiletto, not to mention Duncan Hunters Navy, it appears someone inside the Navy got the SECDEF's memo, and is showing a bit of unconventional thinking in a culture best defined for its conventional, traditional resistance to any change.

Looking For Measurements To SOUTHCOM Successes

We find it interesting that on the day the press is reporting South America is on the brink of war, South American newspapers are reporting several nations have pulled out of UNITAS. It appears the UNITAS exercise will consist only of the United States, Brazil, and Argentina this year.

Nuclear aircraft carrier USS George Washington, one of the world’s most impressive man-o-war and three other US Navy units will be participating in joint exercises with the navies from Brazil and Argentina along the coast of Rio do Janeiro, reports Correio Braziliense Friday edition.

The leading newspaper from the capital Brasilia says the exercise will begin next April 22 and will last for two weeks in the framework of the 49th edition of the Unitas joint naval exercises the US Navy has been involved with its Latinamerican counterparts since 1959.

The report goes on to say that Chile, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela and now Uruguay has withdrawn from the UNITAS 2008 exercise arguing the exercises were “outdated”. There is currently no US media report with any details.

Last year the USS Pearl Harbor (LSD 52) led Task Group 40.0, which included the Chilean frigate CS Almirante Latorre (FFG 14), in the South American exercise. Task Group 40.0 was the Partnership of the Americas (POA) 2007 deployment last year and also included USS Mitscher (DDG 57) and USS Samuel B Roberts (FFG 58). It is unclear if the report is true regarding other participants in UNITAS, but if it is true this would be a major blow to the US Navy.

What isn't clear is what this means for the Partnership of the Americas (POA) 2008 deployment, whether that deployment will include the USS George Washington (CVN 73) and its escorts or other vessels, and what this might mean for PANAMAX 2008, which is usually another major exercise of the POA deployment. This does however give insight to what the USS George Washington (CVN 73) deployment will be like for its move to Japan later this year.

With South American Navies pulling out of UNITAS, it raises other questions regarding the recent focus by the Navy to South America. While SOUTHCOM provides an outstanding statistical scorecard regarding the work the good folks on the USNS Comfort (T-AH 20) did last year on its humanitarian mission, which began in June of 2007, and was a major component of the president’s “Advancing the Cause of Social Justice in the Western Hemisphere” initiative. However, it is unclear if all of that fine work actually contributed to a measurable gain for United States foreign policy to the region. Conventional wisdom would be that it did, most specifically with the people, but with a number of the nations visited pulling out of UNITAS it raises questions regarding the impact of humanitarian assistance to the governments of nations visited. We note the measurements of polling data used in SE Asia has revealed a sharp increase in the popularity of the US there, and while we aren't sure if that is a tangible measurement, at least it is something. Where is similar polling data for SOUTHCOM?

This highlights a missing requirement for future humanitarian missions, there needs to be a tangible metric for measurement for success of failure, which is critical in the determination regarding whether this is an effective use of Naval resources or not. Good intentions and good will are not metrics, and statistics tell the work being done, but do not give good information for cost analysis for success. While we concede the expectation of success, we do not concede that it was a success until data can be presented to prove it, because too much is riding on the humanitarian strategy to simply assume it is working without evidence.

We also note that when nations pull out of an annual exercise with history dating back to 1959, something is definitely amiss in measuring successes or meeting expectations for cooperation.

2nd Fleet Focus: Venezuela Mobilizes Military

This is hardly surprising, Chavez never skips a beat in grabbing a headline. If we didn't import so much of our oil from Venezuela, this wouldn't be worth close observation.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez ordered his country's embassy in neighboring Colombia to close and told his military to move tank battalions to the border after a Colombian air strike into Ecuador, an ally of Venezuela.

``This could be the beginning of a war,'' Chavez said in comments broadcast today by state television. ``We are on alert, and we'll support Ecuador in any circumstance.''

Colombia launched an air strike yesterday on an Ecuador camp of Colombia's biggest guerrilla group to kill one of its leaders, Raul Reyes. Diplomatic relations between Chavez and Colombian President Alvaro Uribe have unraveled since Uribe withdrew his support for Chavez's negotiations with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia to secure the release of hostages.

Right before Hurricane Katrina, Chavez called the training of the USS Bataan (LHD 5) with Mexico the potential invasion of Venezuela by the United States, so anytime I read a comment by Chavez that says "beginning of a war" I think of the boy who cried wolf.

CNN is also reporting 10 tank battalions have been ordered to moved to the border. The rush to react by American citizen observers is hard to watch. I've even read people try to call into action the Rio Treaty, also known as the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance which is a defense treaty between several nations of this hemisphere. It is suggested if Venezuela invades Columbia, the US is obligated under treaty to respond. Ironically, Chavez is invoking the same treaty on behalf of Ecuador. If there is ever a treaty that defines the futility of defense treaties in the modern era, the Rio Treaty is the posterchild.

Isn't it interesting, several days ago the US took out a terrorist inside Pakistan, and even though Pakistan was pissed we attacked a terrorist target in their territory, Americans thought it was the right thing. Further to the irony, this is exactly the position of the Obama campaign to deal with Al Qaeda in Afghanistan.

In this case we have a case where Columbia attacks a FARC leader, recognized as a terrorist by the US government. This is basically the same position of the US against Al Qaeda. We should not be surprised there are some unhappy a nation hit a target in a neighbor though, so the outrage was all but mute.

Israel hit Gaza today, killing as many as 80. We are seeing predictable patterns. We are actually seeing consistency. Clearly despite 9/11, no one really does all it can to 3rd world countries, including in Africa, South America, the Middle East, and SE Asia, to stop supporting non-state military actors, what we generally term terrorists even though they represent insurgencies. Anyone who claims the US is being consistent on that front needs to explain the PKK. The advocacy that takes up for either side in this issue highlights the lack of strategy by the US government. Who is ready to defend Columbia, and watch the price of gasoline go up? Who is ready to watch Chavez topple the government in Columbia? Would America really watch Germany invade Poland again 70 some off years later?

We expect the Navy to be dispatched to quietly, it is unlikely we will see a headline from the Navy, rather we'll learn from a Pentagon leak as the media rushes to give away intelligence regarding US troop movements. The news will play directly into the Chavez propaganda campaign once the leak occurs.

From solely a Navy perspective, this will be very interesting to observe. We believe, as many do, the next CNO will either be Adm. James Stavridis or Admiral William "Fox" Fallon.

Adm. Fallon was seen as a peacemaker in his time in the Pacific, and is now seen as the premier warfighter in his role for CENTCOM. Adm. Stavridis has a reputation solely of that as a peacemaker. If this situation develops into something, or is prevented from doing so in some way, this strikes us as one of the those tests the rest of Adm. Stavridis career may be judged by.

4th Fleet Focus: Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick

It started with the Monroe Doctrine, but it was the timeless phrase President Theodore Roosevelt that nicely summarized Americas foreign policy towards South America... or was supposed to anyway. In reality, American foreign policy towards South America is complicated and can be legitimately argued as non-existent, at least the public coherent and explained policy anyway. It was around 1950 the American foreign policy attention span waned in South America, and arguably it continues to be poorly defined.

Ironically, it was 1950 when the US Navy folded the 4th fleet into the US 2nd fleet in Norfolk. Is that a coincidence? Perhaps, but the Great White Fleet started its journey by going to South America first, and that wasn't an accident. Today South America doesn't look anything like the South America of the Monroe Doctrine, President Theodore Roosevelt, or 1950. Today, South America is an emerging economic market the US needs to get engaged with diplomatically, and this little bit of news reflects that reality.

U.S. 4th Fleet, which hunted submarines in the South Atlantic during World War II until it was dissolved almost six decades ago, is on its way back.

The new 4th Fleet would cover a similar area, with plans to operate from Naval Station Mayport, Fla., and oversee operations in Central and South America. The commander of Naval Forces Southern Command would also be the head of 4th Fleet, Navy officials said.

The fleet would not own any ships. Instead, it would operate in the same way Navy forces do in the Persian Gulf region. In U.S. Central Command, one admiral serves as head of both Naval Forces Central Command and 5th Fleet. Therefore, the dual-hatted admiral in charge of 4th Fleet and NavSouth would be under the commander of Southern Command.

And when will the 4th Fleet stand up?

The decision to stand up the fleet, Navy officials said, is within the scope of the chief of naval operations, as changing ship home ports are. But a final go-ahead is still a ways off, though sources say the Navy’s leadership is actively working the issue and strongly in favor of the idea.

A final decision will not come until the Navy has briefed military and congressional leaders.

Sounds like we are still a few years off. We are not sure what to make of this, and expect, like AFRICOM, there is more to this story than what the early press stories reveal. Our initial reaction to this bit of news was sarcasm. Is this an inside move to create more staff positions? The thought crossed our mind, but it is more likely there is some good logic here.

There are regional players that can no longer be ignored. Brazil, for example, shouldn't be ignored. Brazil in 20 years could very easily be what India or China is today, a rising economic and military power. Brazil has a lot of problems to overcome to realize that potential, but the potential most certainly exists and the US is wise not to ignore it, and would be very wise to get engaged with Brazil on the level sooner rather than later.

Another regional player is Venezuela. Huge Chavez may be the darling of western socialists, but his military moves, particularly in regards to building paramilitary forces and questionable policies with assault rifles is troubling. Should Venezuela actually follow through and put 9 AIP submarines in the Caribbean Sea that would be a valid national security concern for a 4th fleet.

It is hard to tell exactly what the reasons are for this move, as it is still early in the process. Regardless, there has been a lot of attention given to South America, between Global Fleet Stations, hospital ship deployments, humanitarian missions, and Partnership deployments the Navy has certainly remained engaged without a numbered fleet.

Final thought: While we threw a bit of snark at this announcement as a first reaction, the best snark is here. It is an old entry, but reddog's comment is a classic!

2nd Fleet Focus: Responding to Hurricane Felix

It looks like the damage to Nicaragua caused by Hurricane Felix is more extensive than has been reported, calls for help have been sent out, and the US Navy is responding.

The Pentagon's Southern Command is sending a U.S. Navy ship to the waters off Nicaragua to help in the relief efforts from Hurricane Felix, which struck central America this week.

The Category 5 Felix slammed Nicaragua and Honduras Tuesday, killing at least 40 people in Honduras and Nicaragua -- and injuring many more.

In Miami, the head of the U.S. Southern Command, Navy Adm. James Stavridis, ordered a survey team to help the U.S. Agency for International Development, a State Department affiliate agency, evaluate what kind of relief the United States might give to those areas affected by the storm.

Then late Wednesday, Southcom announced that Stavridis had dispatched the USS Wasp from a huge multi-national naval exercise around the Panama Canal to help in any rescue and recovery efforts.

PANAMAX 2007 Begins

As the USS Wasp (LHD 1) is preparing for its deployment to ferry 10 MV-22 Osprey of VMM-263 to Al Asad Air Base in Iraq, I'd first like to ask whoever puts out press releases not to give out locations of bases in Iraq with your announcements. I understand you are excited the MV-22 actually works, but telling everyone on the planet where it works isn't helping.

Before she deploys to the Middle East, the USS Wasp (LHD 1) is taking part in Panamax 2007.

PANAMAX sea, air and land forces will promote interoperability to counter threats to the waterway through maritime interdiction operations, mine countermeasures and visit, board, search and seizure procedures. Simultaneously, land-based training at Soto Cano Air Base, Honduras will focus on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations, among other missions.

“The time for planning is done,” said Ortiz, as he spoke amongst the flags of the nations in PANAMAX. “Now we execute.”

The U.S. Navy has sent USS Wasp (LHD 1) to lead the naval armada, along with USS Pearl Harbor (LSD 52), USS Mitscher (DDG 57), and USS Samuel B. Roberts (FFG 58). The USCGC Thetis (WMEC 910) will join the maritime force along with ships from the navies of participating nations.

The participating nations are Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Canada, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, France, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Netherlands, Panama, Peru, the United States and Uruguay.

Three other nations will act as observers: El Salvador, Mexico and Paraguay.

It is unclear if the USS Wasp (LHD 1) will be replacing the USS Carter Hall (LSD 50) which departed on April 10th earlier this year. There are already 2 ESGs currently operating in the 5th Fleet area of operations with the entire Kearsarge ESG transiting the Suez Canal this past Monday. The US Navy has operated 3 Strike Groups almost consistently in the Gulf since formulating the Fleet Response Plan, mostly with the makeup of 2 ESGs and 1 CSG, but since 2005 the Navy has also operated an individual expeditionary ship somewhere near the Horn of Africa. With the delays to the USS San Antonio (LPD 17), the sale of the USS Trenton (LPD 14), the retirement of the USS Saipan (LHA 2), and the upcoming Global Fleet Station deployment of the USS Fort McHenry (LSD 43), I think she will stay in the region.

Success of Global Fleet Station Pilot Will Be Decided This Week

Prior to the deployment of the Global Fleet Station to the Caribbean, I engaged is a discussion over at the World Affairs Boards regarding what would determine a successful GFS deployment. My argument was basically, the HSV Swift platform itself might be ideal for specific mission profiles, particularly training and insuring it carries the provisions necessary to address specific tools that will enhance local forces, but my argument was that ultimately the unplanned events that unfolded during the Global Fleet Station deployment will decide the success or failure of the mission, and the HSV Swift platform alone won't be enough in a major emergency. That alone argues that the GFS concept deployed away from the US might need to be larger than one ship, because while the primary mission might be about the little things, the secondary mission of the big things will ultimately decide its success.

My argument is based on a maritime theory I believe in regarding the role of the US Navy moving into the 21st century, that "Mission-tailored, distributed forces" able to provide presence over a large area while being organic enough to combine to meet large challenges as they develop will be a critical capability of the United States, particularly as a peacetime deterrent to war, of which humanitarian response is a key enabler.

Today, an enormous challenge is developing in the Caribbean Global Fleet Station Area of Responsibility, and if the Global Fleet Station is unable to grow large enough, fast enough, it will fall well short of its requirement to provide the tailored services the mission will require.

Authorities began evacuating residents of the Mexican Caribbean on Saturday and tourists in Cancun cleared supermarkets shelves as the luxury resort braced for its second ferocious hurricane in two years.

Hurricane Dean, which is on the verge of becoming a rare Category 5 storm, was expected to strike the Yucatan Peninsula late on Monday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

It has already killed at least three people in the Caribbean on its way toward Jamaica and the Gulf of Mexico.

Mexican navy and army officers evacuated 2,500 people from the small island of Holbox and helped fishing communities to shelters on higher ground. Hotel owners and state officials in Cancun were to decide when to move some 40,000 tourists later on Saturday. "We are not taking any chances with Hurricane Dean," Felix Gonzalez, governor for Cancun's Quintana Roo state, told reporters.

I have been to Cancun twice since it was hit by Hurricane Rita in 2005, when it was absolutely devastated the likes of which only residents of New Orleans would understand. That storm flat out destroyed the place, but in two years Cancun has recovered unlike any place I have ever seen, making New Orleans look like it is run by spoiled idiots.

Quintana Roo, the state in Mexico which Cancun is in, is remarkable in that when you visit you can smell money in the air. It is one of those rare places, not only in Mexico, but in the Western Hemisphere, where an entire state drives a tourism industry in ways only places like Las Vegas can compare. The tourism industry in Quintana Roo is critical to the economy of Mexico, and this storm will undoubtedly cause significant damage across the board. Even if every resort on the coast is wiped out, it will still be built back by next summer, of that I have no doubt. That also isn't the point.

The US Navy Global Fleet Station, if it really is about providing regional assistance and response to crisis, needs to already be moving in preparation for the response to Hurricane Dean. Being a first responder in humanitarian affairs is about being "Johnny on the Spot," and that doesn't mean reacting after the damage is done it means being ready before damage occurs, and on scene even if not required. The GFS concept, in all mission profiles, cannot be reactionary, it must anticipate its mission and be proactive in preparation to regional requirement, meaning if disaster response isn't already being prepared, the GFS concept has a major flaw.

When the earthquake in Peru occurred, no less than two naval bloggers (Eagle1 and Springboard) immediately called for the USNS Comfort (T-AH 20) to move out and make a difference. Looking back, SOUTHCOM responded with a joint force led by the US Air Force, despite an offshore earthquake creating a terrible natural disaster with no less than 2 major naval assets in the area, the USNS Comfort (T-AH 20) and Task Force 40.0 being within a few days response. Springboard attempts to explain it as a shallow draft issue, and he may have a good point. Shallow draft problems tend to follow Hurricanes as well, which means HSV Swift can be useful in response to Hurricane Dean. It also means aviation may be required in Quintana Roo, and a LHD, LHA, or LPD with its aviation support capabilities can also make a huge difference in tailoring a response. Is one on its way?

HSV Swift should be wrapping up its Guatemala mission this weekend, meaning it certainly has Hurricane Dean on its radar. We will find out this week if the concept of "Mission-tailored, distributed forces" is a bunch of naval brass bull or a mission statement when it comes to Global Fleet Stations this week, because this week the success or failure of the Global Fleet Station pilot mission in the Caribbean will be decided.

The Rise of a Southern Partner

Meanwhile in South America, completely under the radar, a Navy moves at full speed into the 21st century. While it is true Brazil and Venezuela have recently captured headlines for their Naval moves, the real mover and shaker in South American maritime affairs is Chile.

Most current Naval observers would likely associate the Chilean Navy with its recent Partnership of America's deployment. For the first half of that deployment, the Chilean Frigate Almirante Latorre (FFG 14) deployed with the USS Pearl Harbor (LSD 52), USS Mitscher (DDG 57), and the USS Samuel B Roberts (FFG 58). That deployment only tells half the story.

The Chilean Frigate Almirante Latorre (FFG 14) is one of 4 recently refurbished Dutch frigates incorporated into the Chilean Navy, which also includes the Captain Prat (FFG 11), the Almirante Blanco Encalada (FFG 15), and the Almirante Riveros (FFG 18). These 4 Dutch ships are being joined by an existing Type 22 (Batch II) frigate Almirante Williams (FF 19), the recently acquired Almirante Lynch (FFG 07), and the soon to be received Type 23 frigates Almirante Cochrane (ex- HMS Norfolk) and Almirante Condell (ex- HMS Marlborough).

These 8 ships represent the most powerful naval surface force in South America. They will soon be joined by 2 Scorpene submarines recently commissioned, the O'Higgins and the Carrera.

While impressive, this doesn't make Chile very popular in South America. The increasingly good relationship between the United States and Chile has drawn the ire of countries like Venezuela, who points to Chile's 3.8% of GDP on defense budget as a troubling sign of the region. This increase in defense spending actually has an interesting reason behind it. Military Power Review, a think tank that focuses on affairs in South America recently published a report called "Rearming: The Paradigmatic Cases of Chile and Venezuela and Their Regional Impact." In reviewing that paper the Center for International Policy (CIP) cites Military Power Reviews conclusions saying

There is a permanent rise in the price of copper, parallel to that of petroleum, which increased by 400% between 2002 and 2006 in the international market. This explains to a large degree what the Instituto Nueva Mayoría in Argentina assesses as a "steady but gradual process" of rearming in the last 15 years, accelerated since 2003. In its report "Rearming: The Paradigmatic Cases of Chile and Venezuela and Their Regional Impact," the above mentioned think tank maintains that the Chilean Defense Ministry retains a large degree of autonomy when it comes to formulating its policies thanks to the Secret Copper Law that earmarks a certain percentage of the exports of the metal to the armed forces.

The Chilean military reduced its personnel in the last decade from 120,000 to 40,000, and it reorganized and created eight brigades, giving priority to mobility and fire power. Chile acquired 100 German Leonard II heavy tanks, retaining the ability to acquire several more, and 28 F-16 airplanes equipped with AMRAAN missiles and air-air laser bombs, unknown until now in the region. Of even larger impact is its purchase of two modern Scorpene Franco-German submarines as well as eight missile frigates, maritime patrol airplanes, and oil tankers. "Media experts have concluded that taking into account the relative sizes of Brazil and Chile's GNP, the latter spends six times more economic resources on military equipment than the main power in the region," says Nueva Mayoría.

That is sort of accurate, but the Copper Law isn't a secret, what CIP is missing here is that Democracies don't make defense policy a secret like say Venezuela does.

Venezuela has raised legitimate questions with its behavior, while at the same time it has become the 3rd largest importer of oil to the United States behind Canada and Mexico. Venezuela has close ties to Bolivia, a country with a number of disputes with Chile, foremost being the loss of territories to Chile in the 1879-1883 War when Bolivia lost its access to the Pacific. Peru was also engaged in that war, and disputes stemming from the maritime border between Peru and Chile exist even to today.

There is no shortage of alarmist attitudes in South America regarding Chile, with much of it stemming from the Chilean economic boom of Copper combined with the massive modernization of the military. However, none of these concerns appear to be shared with Western nations, all of whom have excellent and improving relations with Chile.

United States policy for South America has been largely an afterthought under the Bush administration, but events are happening despite the apparent absence of US interest in the region. The United States needs to get publicly engaged, and with booming economies in Brazil and Chile, combined with expanding maritime roles for both in maintaining peace in the Global Commons, opportunity for establishing close ties to South America is knocking.

HSV Swift Reaches Halfway Point

While there has been a remarkable lack of media attention given by the Navy to its Global Fleet Station mission, HSV Swift pulled into Port Canaveral last week for a 10 day resupply to mark the half way point of its Global Fleet Station mission. While the lack of media attention basically means the Navy gave up trying to celebrate its new idea publicly, I see the quiet approach as a good thing.

The Navy is building relationships here, and low profile is probably better on the locals.

This is pretty nice report:

The mission's aim is to share knowledge and expertise to counter terrorism, drug trafficking and to improve port security throughout the Caribbean.

First deployed almost four years ago, the Swift is 320 feet long. Jets push it through waves at speeds of up to 53 mph, more than fast enough to water-ski behind.

One deck holds two buildings for training rooms, similar to portable buildings used at some schools. Tanks and other heavy military vehicles can be loaded and unloaded easily. The ship also boasts a helicopter landing pad.

Trainers on the ship include personnel from the Navy, Marine Corps, Coast Guard, State Department and other military and governmental agencies.

"Our objective is to develop a persistent presence," said Wied, Task Group 40.9 commander.

I expect the next three months to remain as quiet as the last month, and we probably won't know how the Navy "really" feels about the Global Fleet Station mission until next year. Personally, I think it is smart, and potentially hits the mark in terms of making a major contribution to the Navy's phase 0 shaping operation objective. We'll have to wait and see the results to know for sure.

Another article here.

Will Earmarks Push Change in the Naval Shipbuilding Culture?

Earmarks are often characterized as a means for a public official to circumvent the public finance system to provide funding for a specific expenditure usually associated in some way in US politics with the geographic location specific to the constituency of the politician proposing the earmark. An earmark almost always carries a negative connotation to it, because in general it is considered an exploits taxpayer money in a way that assigns specific purpose to money that would otherwise be allocated through the general fund. The negative implication behind those utilizing earmarks is that it provides an avenue for corruption or kickbacks by the receiver of the business receiving a contract through earmarks, and in fact it happens quite often.

Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., appears hell bent on using earmarks to push his theories on the Navy, and the Navy appears hell bent on resisting. For one, the theories Duncan Hunter is pushing do not fit nicely into the Navies current plan, and second the specific items being pushed are not necessarily on the priority radar as far as the Navy is concerned. Both projects, however, are interesting in that they are definitely transformational by the Navy's own definition, more so even than many of the Navy's own projects, and both of them would very much effect the current 313-ship plan that appears dead on arrival anyway.

The first project is the Sea Fighter (FSF 1), which through earmarks Duncan Hunter wants to be commissioned into the US Navy, and utilized in a way the Navy really doesn't want to use it... namely as a patrol vessel. There are obviously problems here, for one the LCS is both gas and diesel ship, has limited range, and doesn't have any weapons or a hanger. While it is an interesting ship to experiment with, which is what the Navy is currently using it for, it really isn't designed to be a front line vessel, at least from the Navy's point of view.

Personally, I haven't seen much that has sold me on the idea of deploying the ship, however I am open to new ideas because the current ideas appear flawed. For one, the Sea Fighter (FSF 1) could be doing some good today beside the HSV Swift in the Global Fleet Station. While Duncan Hunters idea is to replace the HSV Swift with the Sea Fighter (FSF 1), and idea I don't really like much, I think it would do very well to augment it, and within the framework of the current Global Fleet Station to South America the Sea Fighter (FSF 1) could be doing some good establishing some presence and intelligence gathering in the drug trade.

One of the things that has been bothering me about the current Global Fleet Station deployment is that it would appear it has too much of a tactical focus, with a real lack of strategic knowledge accumulation going on in a specific focus area. The HSV Swift arrives, trains local law enforcement based on their individual request, and then leaves. In Belize the Swift departed in time for the USNS Comfort (T-AH 20) to take over. In a way, if these two pieces were considered part of the same mission (which I am willing to do) this is a really smart approach. In the Dominican Republic, the HSV Swift arrived, delivered a few small boats, and trains the Dominican Navy in anti-narcotics work. When the Swift leaves, the USCG will remain as a static partner, again how it should work.

However, for say the Dominican Republic for example, there is no strategy for handling incoming and outgoing maritime traffic from points across the Caribbean Sea, something that needs to be established. There are no vessels fast enough to move around in the blue waters to track the cross Caribbean sea movements of illegal trade trafficker's. That role requires a considerable amount of time, persistence, and reach with platforms like UAVs. In that role, Sea Fighter would appear well fitted.

After all, isn't that what the LCS is for?

Or is the Sea Fighter too big for the job? If so, why not send in the M80 Stiletto? It too could fit well into the Global Fleet Station concept. It is true it would need a mothership, but had someone been thinking about it, the USS Pearl Harbor currently completing the UNITAS exercises in the region has a well deck able to house the M80. Why the USS Pearl Harbor and its force wasn't integrated into the Global Fleet Station concept to begin with is already an issue, but more with the limited scope the first Global Fleet Station had than with that specific deployment. Apparently the M80 is in the same boat (no pun intended) as the Sea Fighter (FSF 1), it is novel, but nobody really wants it right now because it doesn't fit into the plan.

Personally, I think what the Sea Fighter (FSF 1) and the M80 Stiletto represent is the SOCOM element of Sea Basing under the Seapower 21 concept, but Seapower 21 appears on the way out and Sea Basing specifically has taken a new form altogether different than the Defense Science Boards original purpose.

Personally, while I am not a big fan of pork, earmarks is about all that is out there right now for Congress to force changes upon the Navy in its direction. While I have never cared much for Duncan Hunter one way or the other, in this case, I'll be cheering him on to force the Sea Fighter (FSF 1) on the Navy, because the reality is, cheering for Duncan Hunter in this case is cheering for the little guy shipbuilder, the same shipbuilding the Navy has basically given the finger to in favor of the same big industry bunch that could use a healthy dose of competition to wake them up and get their shit together.

Global Fleet Stations: Caribbean Cruise Continues

For those who are following the SOUTHCOM missions of the USNS Comfort (T-AH 20) and the Swift (HSV 2), there have been a few events. On June 20th the USNS Comfort (T-AH 20) arrived in Belize, and on June 21st the Swift departed Belize. In my discussions with peers I am finding there is considerable interest in the Swift (HSV 2) mission to Belize, but there wasn't much public information. I see the lack of information, either on NavyNewstand or in the Belize media on the Swift (HSV 2) activities as a good sign.

Belize has significant problems, from a lack of law enforcement to being a major port for drug trafficking in South America to being a major human trafficking in both servitude and sexual exploitation, and is still listed as a Tier 3 nation for human trafficking by the State Dept.

The lack of media attention implies the Navy was busy working with Law Enforcement. The typical Global Fleet Station media announcements have tended to be humanitarian in nature, and in some cases there has been too much of it, although some media reports have involved professionally established law enforcement like the reports from Guatemala. In Belize, very little of that kind of professionalism exists, so training would likely happen in secrecy to protect the law enforcement agencies involved. This is a critical element to the Global Fleet Stations concept, because security cooperation is not only the key, but results in cooperation is the goal. It will probably be several months before any information regarding the professional training activities conducted in Belize is revealed, if not years.

The Swift (HSV 2) then moved over to the Dominican Republic, arriving on June 24th. The Dominican Today provides a good media report regarding the intentions of the GFS visit:

Webb said the high speed ship’s presence -anchored in the capital’s Ozama river port- is part of the mission to reinforce marine security in the zone. "Drug trafficking, terrorism and piracy: the nationality doesn’t concern them. One country alone cannot solve a problem such as this, but together as partners we can in fact make the difference."

A team of instructors will train to 95 military until July 6, at the Dominican Government’s request.

This is exactly how the Global Fleet Stations should work. A nation requests assistance, and the US Navy responds with as much assistance as possible, including in this case, making a material investment donation to the Dominican Navy the Global Fleet Station intends to train:

The U.S. government has given two fast launches to the Navy, valued at US$7.5 million.

Both crafts will be used to control illegal trips, terrorism and drug smuggling in high seas.

Roland Bullen, Trade Attaché at the United States Embassy, said that the boats could reach a speed of 60mph, “making them the fastest boats in the area”.

This type of investment, in time, material, and training is a very clever (and relatively cheap) way for the US Navy to make a significant impact on long term security. It establishes a foundation to build cooperation from and leaves no question regarding the US Navy commitment. The evaluation of the results of this type of investment needs to be carefully evaluated though, because while observers can feel confident in the US Navy Global Fleet Station contribution from June 24th to July 6th, it is what happens with these two fast boats starting on July 7th that will determine success.

Which raises a point that needs to be evaluated within the Global Fleet Station concept. In both Iraq and Afghanistan the Army and Marines have learned the hard lessons regarding producing results in security cooperation from another nation. The most effective way to insure success is through continuous presence. Is that equally true in this case? Will the Dominican Navy be able to make significant progress in intercepting the drug running on small boats to and from Hispaniola when the Global Fleet Station leaves?

This is one the reasons why I believe the Global Fleet Station needs to be more than one ship, specifically needs something capable of deploying "fast launches" similar to whatever is being donated to a host nation, but more importantly, needs to be able to directly address the real issue of establishing a Maritime Domain Awareness strategy that puts the donated equipment, and existing equipment of the Dominican Navy to good use.

In a letter to the editor in yesterday's edition of the Dominican Today, a retired USAF Captain makes a point that what is needed is an information system to help distinguish the legitimate business from the black market, and although I wouldn't go quite as far as he suggests, I think the point of his idea shouldn't be dismissed outright.

In this case, the Dominican Republic has asked for specific assistance. The US Navy has responded appropriately (in my opinion anyway) by going above the call of training assistance and donating 2 fast boats. However, these 2 boats specifically address only a single aspect of the law enforcement problems facing the Dominican Navy that would be needed to effectively impact the maritime security issues. The ability for a global fleet station platform to establish an extended presence, perhaps as much as 6 weeks, and help local authorities establish a strategy for coordinating local legal maritime traffic making approaches to the Dominican Republic would allow the host nation to develop the processes and techniques to get a better grasp of the maritime smuggling issues.

Maybe it isn't possible in this trip, but I certainly hope the Navy has an information sharing strategy for the region in the cards for the Global Fleet Station concept. None of the multiple suggested Navy concepts to date appears better suited to making a significant impact in Maritime Domain Awareness, which in the end is the key to improving Maritime Security in troubled regions.

As for the USNS Comfort (T-AH 20), she left Belize last week for Guatemala on the 27th, and left Guatemala on July 2nd and should be in Panama either by July 4th or 5th. You can follow the Comfort mission via Navy Newstand here.

2nd Fleet Focus: Venezuela's Growing Navy

The US 2nd Fleet's Area of Responsibility is steadily becoming a focus of US policy. The two areas getting attention include the western coastof Africa, specifically the Gulf of Guinea, but also the Caribbean region with the problematic Hugo Chavez. A January 22nd, 2007 CRS report on "Latin America: Terrorism Issues" summed up the concern for the new Congress regarding Venezuela:

According to the State Department’s April 2006 terrorism report, Venezuela has virtually ceased its cooperation in the global war on terror, tolerated terrorist in its territory, and sought close relations with Cuba and Iran, both state sponsors of terrorism. As noted above, Colombian terrorist groups use Venezuela territory for safehaven, although it is unclear whether and to what extent the government of President Hugo Chávez provides material support to these terrorist groups and at what level. According to the State Department report, Venezuelan citizenship, identity, and travel documents are easy to obtain, making the country a potentially attractive way-station for terrorists. In mid-May 2006, the Department of State, pursuant to Section 40A of the Arms Export Control Act, prohibited the sale or license of defense article and services to Venezuela because of its lack of cooperation on antiterrorism efforts. Other countries on the Section 40A list include Cuba, Iran, North Korea, and Syria, not to be confused with the “state sponsors of terrorism” list under Section 6(j) of the Export Administration Act of 1979. (For further information, see CRS Report RL32488, Venezuela: Political Conditions and U.S. Policy.)

In late May, Chavez declared war on the media within Venezuela. As a follow up, Venezuela is making headlines this week with reports out of Russia that President Hugo Chavez is looking to buy submarines from Russia. This isn't actually new news, it is just details of old news, this time in English. Back in January Mer et Marine ran a story that a Venezuelan admiral was looking to buy 9 SSKs. As the story went, they originally approached DCN regarding the Scorpene, but France wasn't interested. Venezuela then went looking for other options, including the Russian Amur and German U212, but also found Mer et Marine was interested and would sell Venezuela the S-80. Since the S-80 has US equipment in it, the Scorpene is a more likely sell (they are co-owner of the Scorpene project with DCN).

The story faded and there wasn't much news about Venezuelan submarines until now. There are some details that Mer et Marine released back in January regarding the Venezuela purchase, among them 50 days autonomy and an AIP requirement. From the details released in the Russian media, it would appear the Russians would sell Venezuela 5 Kilo class and 4 Amus class. It will be interesting to see what happens, not only to see if the Germans get involved in the competition (unlikely) but if Venezuela actually follows through.

Submarines isn't the only naval equipment Venezuela is buying though, they are in the market for small boats too.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez authorized the Navy Commander Vice-admiral Benigno Remigio Calvo to enter into a USD 261 million "trade agreement" with Spanish firm Rodman Polyships for joint construction of 66 boats and purchase of construction material for other 40 units to be manufactured in Venezuela.

It would appear Iranian Maritime Strategy has made its way to Venezuela. The story of the buy from Rodman Polyships SAU isn't specific regarding the type or weapons, however Rodman offers types in sizes from 10m to 44m with speeds from 30 to 50 knots.

Whenever any country puts 9 new SSKs in your backyard, the 2nd Fleet should be concerned. A 2007 Comparative Atlas of Defense and Security in Latin America, prepared by the Network of Security and Defense of Latin America (Resdal), sums up the growing Venezuala military.

The Venezuelan Armed Force comprises 92,350 officers, excluding the National Guard -which is described in the study as an "administrative police corps"- and the complementary "bodies" such as the Military Reserve and the
Territorial Guard.

Including the four branches of the Armed Force (Army, Aviation, Navy and National Guard) the number raises to 129,150 people. Almost half of them (49 percent) are in the Army (63,350 officers); 28.5 percent in the National Guard (36,800 people); 13.6 percent in the Navy (17,500 officers) and 8.9 percent in the Aviation (11,500 people), said Rocío San Miguel, one of the Venezuelan representatives to the network founded in 2001.

The "National Guard" and "Administrative Police Corps" are not what the names imply. These are political military organizations, not law enforcement, that are more akin to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard than the Alabama National Guard. Last December the Federation of American Scientists blog weighed in on the concern of an arms build up in South America, and the problems with Venezuela's current policy. The money quote:

While Chavez’s colorful insults steal the headlines, the issue of greatest importance—the influx of thousands of rifles and millions of rounds of ammunition into a region rife with black market arms trafficking—has received scant meaningful attention.

What does the arms buildup mean? A Second Falklands? Probably not, but a review of ASW capabilities in the Caribbean followed by a number of high profile exercises wouldn't be a bad response.

(Bottom Picture Caption) An army sniper takes part in a military exercise in La Guaira, about 30 km (20 miles) outside Caracas June 6, 2006. The exercise for unconventional warfare and resistance is meant to repel a foreign invasion and defend Venezuela's territory and sovereignty, officials said. (VENEZUELA) 06 Jun 2024 REUTERS/Jorge Silva

Global Fleet Stations: Guatemala Ends, Belize Begins

The US Navy Global Fleet Station Pilot mission has arrived in Belize. Navy NewsStand recently posted a few pictures of the GFS training mission with Guatemalan sailors. To be honest I have had high hopes for the Global Fleet Station concept, but the news report from within Belize leaves me with several questions. HSV Swift represents the pilot mission, and while the core activity in Belize appears to be coast guard training, the news reports give the impression someone at the State Dept. was unable to come up with secondary missions prior to arrival.

Thomas Wise:Head of Public Affairs at the United States Embassy in Belmopan

“And as part of their mission here they are going to try look to do a community relations project where they come out and help a group from work.They already have money dedicated for it but they have a lot of bodies that say they are willing to pitch in and help with anybody who needs any help.So if anybody has any ideas feel free to contact us at the embassy if they need ten or twenty guys to come out and do something that would be charitable.”

Someone at the State Dept. dropped the ball here. Off the top of my head, there are any number of projects that come to mind that should have been offered up front. Water contamination tops the list, but sewage projects, flood prevention, waste disposal, drug trade symposiums, and HIV awareness programs make my short list. The Global Fleet Station is supposed to be a service oriented mission, the Navy needs the diplomats to be organized and ready so the Navy can hit the beach running, otherwise lost time becomes lost opportunity.

Wise says the ship is located about a mile off the coast of Belize City and Belizeans can get a sneak peak out by the Radisson or from Old Belize on the Western Highway. Belize is stop number five for the vessel. Other stops include Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, and Panama. Wise says another vessel is scheduled to arrive in the country shortly. That vessel will be equipped with medical supplies and personnel.

“The other vessel will be coming here on the twentieth and they will be here for a week.That is called “The Comfort”.That is a large medical ship that is going to be conducting surgeries on the ship itself which is free to Belizeans.There are also going to be bringing doctors to Belmopan where they are going to work with the hospitals and they’ll be taking walk in patients there and they are also going to be doing a dental program in Orange Walk for free dental care.”

It is a good bet the USNS Comfort (T-AH 20) is going to be busy upon arrival., assuming the State Dept. doesn't drop the ball there too. The USNS Comfort (T-AH 20) deploys for its mission on Friday.

Talking Hospital Ships

A couple of items popped up on the web today regarding the US Navy Hospital Ships; USNS Mercy (T-AH 19) and USNS Comfort (T-AH 20).

The first is an article from strategypage that cites statistics on the aftermath of last years South Pacific deployment of the USNS Comfort (T-AH 19).

It was in 2006, after one of those ships spent six months in Indonesia, treating 61,000 patients, that many noted what a powerful effect that had on attitudes towards the United States. Most of the Indonesians received some medicine, or some dental work. Only about two percent involved some surgery. As a result of all this, favorable attitudes towards the U.S. by Indonesians doubled (to 30 percent, so more work is needed.) The Indonesians were getting American quality medicine, which explains the average cost for treating each patient; $280

The article states that an anonymous Admiral suggested giving the ships to the State Dept. The merits of the anonymous Admirals arguments reflected a shortage of funding and the light casualties in the Gulf War and Operation Iraqi Freedom. While I would agree there is certainly a place for the State Dept. on a Navy hospital ship, the Navy role is clear. I'm not sure the Admiral was being serious.

In the hospital ship deployments, including the South Pacific clearly show the Navy is the institution to make these initiatives. In these humanitarian deployments, the Navy is the vehicle while the State Dept. role is that of passenger. We learned in both the South Pacific Tsunami and Hurricane Katrina that the capabilities are best left to the Navy, because while the State Dept. could do the job, the Navy is who has the right tools to get it done right. More importantly though, The US Navy is better suited to respond to a nuclear disaster, not the State Dept., and the United States cannot count on all future wars having small casualties.

As an observer, it appears to me the US Navy understands this, as it is now sending the USS Peleliu (LHA 5) on a similar mission to last years USNS Mercy (T-AH 19) South Pacific deployment.

Speaking of deployments, the Embassy in Guatemala has announced the the USNS Comfort (T-AH 20) will be in Puerto Barrios and will remain in Guatemalan waters for one week, starting June 26 through July 1, 2007. (link in Spanish)

Between the Partnership of the Americas 2007 deployment, the Global Fleet Station deployment, and the upcoming deployment of the USNS Comfort (T-AH 20) it would appear South America is finally getting the attention the US needs to give it.