US Flagged Ship Seized in Venezuela, Captain Arrested

It is not every day when an American ship is seized, the cargo is unloaded, the Captain is jailed, and the crew is being told to prepare to be interrogated, but these events are apparently unfolding in Venezuela. This is the Forbes report that helped bring attention to the issue.

The Venezuelan government has seized a U.S. flagged ship and detained its captain for more than a week.

Since August 29 the ship Ocean Atlas has been at port in Maracaibo, Venezuela, where it docked to unload a cargo of equipment. Yet after four hours in port, the ship was boarded and searched by armed security personel, and the captain was detained on suspicion of trafficking in arms or drugs. The captain has been identified as Jeffrey Michael Raider, 45, of Texas.

The story was then updated over at Maritime Executive.

Some crewmembers are now speaking out anonymously. They have confirmed that Venezuelan authorities have detained the captain of the U.S.-flagged Ocean Atlas and are accusing him of arms trafficking.

The ship had been detained for nine days and the captain had been taken from the ship Wednesday night. Arrest warrants were issued for the entire crew, who would have to give depositions today - two at a time and accompanied by a U.S. consular representative. They will then be escorted back to the cargo ship.

The incident was described by crewmen in a CNN report as follows:

A few hours after the ship arrived at the Maracaibo port, it was boarded by Interpol officials, Venezuelan police officers and narcotics investigators who said they had received a tip that the vessel was smuggling drugs. No drugs were discovered, but weapons that the ship's security team keeps in a locker were found.

The captain had reportedly declared the weapons upon arrival in port and received clearance, but the Venezuelan authorities now said the ship didn't have permission to have them on board and confiscated them.The ship was then under investigation for arms trafficking, and earlier this week, the ship had been officially charged.

Shortly after, the captain made a court appearance, followed by 20 to 30 armed soldiers demanding to be let on board. They held the crew at gunpoint before sending them to the mess. They then met with the captain in his office and took him away. The captain hasn't returned to the ship, but has talked on the phone to the chief mate.

Many have been told that the captain has been charged with arms trafficking. The captain was detained after he refused to let authorities arrest the crew.

This Forbes article has additional details on the use of Facebook by the crew, specifically Russell Macomber's Facebook page (very likable guy IMO). It is through Facebook and emails with the crew that most of the information is being put into the public, as both governments have been silent on the incident.

CNN has the latest here, although events are unfolding fairly quickly so this may be old news by the time you read it.

The crew of a detained U.S.-flagged ship was informed Friday that their scheduled depositions to Venezuelan investigators in connection with an arms trafficking accusation were postponed to Monday.

The crew had expected to give the depositions on Friday, said a crew member on the ship who asked to remain anonymous because of security concerns.

Venezuelan authorities have detained the captain of the shipping vessel, Ocean Atlas, since Wednesday. The skipper is supposed to return to the cargo vessel on Saturday, crew members said.

As of Friday night in Venezuela, prosecutors had yet to make a decision on the case, according to a manager of the ship's customs brokers. The manager asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the situation.

The captain and 13 crew members are all expected to give statements to investigators, the manager said.

The crew is detained on the ship, and authorities are holding the captain elsewhere.

The rest of the report is very informative and has additional information, including a quote by a crewmember via email who makes clear no one on the ship has been threatened with physical injury, harm, or death. The ship had all of it's cargo removed from the vessel to be searched, and ultimately the three rifles used for anti-piracy are the only weapons found on the vessel. No evidence of narcotics was found.

It is pretty obvious that Venezuela is treading on thin ice legally here, but it is not clear that this incident is an example of the usual political stunt one would expect from Hugo Chavez. Unlike a lot of nonsense we hear from Chavez, he has not said a word about this incident. Anti-Americanism is strong in Venezuela, so a tip of narcotics or arms regarding a US flagged ship would be seen by some in government law enforcement there as within expectations of the bad Americans.

But lets not dismiss some fairly serious issues here that US officials need to explain. The ship has been held since August 29th, which means we have had a ship seized for 10 days now already. The Captain of the Ocean Atlas was arrested 7 days later, on September 5th, and has been jailed in Venezuela for at least 2 days without hardly a mention by government, or media. If it wasn't for social media or the Seafarers Union, would we know anything about this incident?

The United States does not have very many US flagged vessels. Nearly all US flagged ships are customers of the US government and carry property of the US government. We do not have an official confirmation regarding the owner of the cargo, but it does raise the question if the cargo is US government owned. In this case, no news report has revealed what the cargo on the ship was, even though several reports claim the crew was forced to unload the cargo.

It is unclear how this will play out, but it is very clear that the charges of arms trafficking are nonsense. Were there rifles on the vessel? Yes, but it is obvious to everyone these are for anti-piracy purposes and the customs broker claims those firearms were declared and it was not deemed a problem. There is no evidence of narcotics on the ship.

This will be interesting to see how it plays out, but unlike the lone retired Marine detained back in August, this type of incident that involves property and people can quickly cascade into a significant diplomatic incident as it gains more media attention.

Venezuelan Navy Chases Off Nuclear Submarine

President Hugo Chavez told the media yesterday that his military forces detected a nuclear submarine near the island of La Orchila, where the Venezuelan military is currently conducting training.

"It was pursued. It escaped because it's much faster than ours," Chavez said, referring to Venezuela's diesel-powered submarines. He said that judging by its speed and size, "it's a nuclear-powered submarine."

Chavez said his government was unable to say what nation might have sent the sub. "We can't accuse anyone," Chavez said, adding that his government is investigating.

The leftist leader has long had tense relations with the United States, and has recently called the U.S. together with its European allies "the empires."

"Now you know how the empires are used to going around the Caribbean Sea and going everywhere, and they also use their satellites for espionage. It's espionage," Chavez said.

Chavez is correct - it is espionage.

If this story is true, what is noteworthy is that the submarine CO apparently realized the submarine had been detected and was able to get his submarine away and disappear.

There is nothing to analyze from this incident without more information, but any detection of a possible US, UK, or French nuclear submarine that makes its way into the media under any circumstances is noteworthy.

Is This For Real?

I can neither confirm nor deny this report, but it is quite interesting nonetheless. As you may be able to tell, I have been somewhat distracted and am still catching up on the news. From our brothers to the north.

Dave Shirlaw of Seawaves publication emailed me with further information on the post I had a couple of days ago about Russian aircraft and submarines purchased by Vietnam.

He pointed out that the KILOs (the subs) destined for Vietnam were originally to be purchased by Venezuela but that deal collapsed after a fistfight on board the Russian cruiser “Peter the Great” when it and other warships were visiting Venezuela.

Venezuela’s leader Chavez was in the process of visiting the Russian flotilla but his bodyguards were prevented from boarding. A fistfight then broke out between the Russian sailors and the bodyguards. The nose of one Russian was broken.

That ended the sub purchase.

No wonder Chavez jumped the cameras, he definitely needs President Obama to sell his book when billion dollar submarine deals go down to emotional tirades.

H/T: Eric Moore

The Sea Hype of the Week

Russia has deployed its little surface action group to Venezuala. Why is this even news? That really is a good question.

A Russian Navy squadron set off for Venezuela Monday in a deployment of Russian military power to the Western Hemisphere unprecedented since the Cold War.

During the Cold War, Latin America became an ideological battleground between the Soviet Union and the United States.

The Kremlin has recently moved to intensify contacts with Venezuela, Cuba and other Latin American nations amid strained relations with Washington after last month's conflict between Russia and Georgia.

The squadron comprising the Russian Northern Fleet's Pyotr Veliky (Peter the Great) battle cruiser and the anti-submarine warfare (ASW) ship Admiral Chabanenko will participate in exercises off the Venezuelan coast.

The local TV stations, Navy.mil, and this blog is about all the world gets whenever a US Navy strike group deploys from the US. Not so with the Russians, they put to sea a cruiser and a destroyer and the world media does backflips. I don't even know how to put that in context, except maybe to suggest, this really is more hype than substance.

To be honest, I am more interested in what the other two ships are. What is the logistical accompanying force with the 2 warships? That question tells us more about the state of the Russian Navy than any focus we put on the warships. If you recall, when the Russians deployed the Admiral Kuznetsov with a pair of warship escorts, we described that Mediterranean Sea deployment as the high end of power projection the Russian Navy is capable of. That remains true today. If you also recall, the Russians deployed the fleet tug Nikolai Chiker with the carrier group, you know, just in case.

The $10,000 question regarding this deployment isn't the significance of the deployment, because the only significance to be found here will be in the mind of Hugo Chavez, looking for a propaganda moment to his domestic audience. No, the $10,000 question is whether one of the two ships not named in any of the news reports is a fleet tug, and whether the Russians are ready to make a forward deployment without a fleet tug ready to salvage a major embarrassment.

It will also tell us the level of confidence the Russians have in their own Navy.

One side note. Some Russian news sources also suggest this task force will go to Syria after Venezuela. From my point of view, that is interesting. I'm not impressed that Russia can operate in the safety of the Caribbean Sea, I am interested when Russia is operating naval forces anywhere near the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

4th Fleet Focus: Russians Coming to South America

Russia is deploying a small naval force to Venezuela for an exercise in November. Hardly surprising, Hugo Chavez is making a big deal out of it, but also hardly surprising, the US is shrugging shoulders saying "so what?"

The Defense Department seemed unaffected Monday by an announcement from Venezuela and Russia that Russian warships would sail to the Caribbean this winter for exercises with the Venezuelan fleet — the first-ever such move by the Russian navy.

Pentagon officials did not express particular concern over the announcement from Caracas. “We’re aware of the announcement made in Venezuela,” said Navy Cmdr. J.D. Gordon, a Pentagon spokesman, “and we’ll see how it goes.”

The exercise is reportedly part of a deal earlier this summer that Russia when it was agreed Russia will sell submarines to Venezuela, but it is also likely this will be sold in Russia as a response to the US Navy delivering humanitarian supplies to Georgia. For all the hype otherwise, the DoD official is right and this is not something that will raise concerns.

While a lot of attention is being paid to the deployment of the nuclear powered battlecruiser Pyotr Veliky (Peter the Great) , we aren't much impressed. Like Robert said, if the ship blows up then we'll be interested. The other three ships include a destroyer, an oiler, and a... you guessed it, fleet tug.

As we have noted in the past, the Admiral Chabanenko (DDG 650), a Udaloy II destroyer, was laid down in 1989, but she (or he in the Russian Masculine vernacular) was under construction when the Soviet Union collapsed. Finally launched in 1995, the Admiral Chabanenko (DDG 650) was not commissioned until 1999 and was in fact the last surface ship laid down during the cold war to be built and commissioned. If there has been a workhorse of the Russian Navy over the last several years, the Admiral Chabanenko (DDG 650) would qualify, which makes perfect sense as the destroyer is the largest surface warship built by Russian in the last 2 decades.

One of the interesting questions asked during the press conference that announced the deployment was "how would the Americans like it if we responded to hurricanes with our warships?" Well, I have not met Admiral Stavridis personally, but what I do know of him leads me to believe he would welcome the Russians in such an effort.

One prediction, Spook86 has discussed many times that it is only a matter of time before long range Russian bombers make an east coast flight down to Cuba like they did during the cold war. If I was placing a bet, I'd bet we would see that scenario sometime between October and November, and it would be very embarrassing if the USAF wasn't ready for it.

This development should be seen for what it is, a response to the Russia's objections to humanitarian response and naval activity in the Black Sea. While Russia will be sure to hype it, and Hugo Chavez will be part of the over hype, it is very much a good thing because it is one of those small steps towards Russia saving face. Sometimes this type of non-escalation - media escalation stuff is necessary to bring about the normalization of relations.

At the end of the day, the concern for the US Navy isn't the Russian naval forces, it is the purchase of submarines by Venezuela. Should the submariners ever get well trained, that would indeed be a major threat for US naval forces.

Shocker: Chavez Supports Terrorism

While its not a smoking gun, there is definitely some smoke here.

Colombia's police chief said Monday that documents recovered from a slain rebel leader's computer reveal financial ties between Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Colombia's largest guerrilla group, including a recent message that mentions US$300 million in Venezuelan support for the rebels.

The official, Gen. Oscar Naranjo, didn't say if there was any indication in the Feb. 14 message that Venezuela actually delivered this money to the rebels.

Another document found in the laptop belonging to slain rebel leader Raul Reyes suggests financial ties between Chavez and the rebels dating back to 1992, Naranjo said. At the time, Chavez was jailed in Venezuela for leading a coup attempt, and was plotting the comeback that eventually led to his election as president in 1998.

"A note recovered from Raul Reyes speaks of how grateful Chavez was for the 100 million pesos (about US$150,000 at the time) that the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, delivered to Chavez when he was in prison," said Naranjo told a news conference.

In a perfect world the UN would move in and verify the quality of these allegations, and begin an investigation. You can stop laughing now.

Is anyone actually surprised Chavez supports terrorism? The only people who would even claim disbelief are those who have put political ideology ahead of logic regarding Chavez. It is sad there are so many of those folks.

I don't believe anything will come of this, but I am starting to the think the silence from Washington means there are a lot of people who do hope something happens. Columbia has both its eastern and southwestern border to defend with troops massing on both, and there could be as many as 10,000 US troops in Columbia right now as "trainers" for the Columbian military. If Venezuela conducted an air strike, one can imagine there are many who would absolutely love to send in the F-22As to clear the air space, and blow all those shiny new Russian fighters Chavez bought the last few years to hell. It would be hard for Chavez to stay in power once his military is humiliated for one of his political statements, which is why I expect nothing will happen.

2nd Fleet Focus: Venezuela Mobilizes Military

This is hardly surprising, Chavez never skips a beat in grabbing a headline. If we didn't import so much of our oil from Venezuela, this wouldn't be worth close observation.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez ordered his country's embassy in neighboring Colombia to close and told his military to move tank battalions to the border after a Colombian air strike into Ecuador, an ally of Venezuela.

``This could be the beginning of a war,'' Chavez said in comments broadcast today by state television. ``We are on alert, and we'll support Ecuador in any circumstance.''

Colombia launched an air strike yesterday on an Ecuador camp of Colombia's biggest guerrilla group to kill one of its leaders, Raul Reyes. Diplomatic relations between Chavez and Colombian President Alvaro Uribe have unraveled since Uribe withdrew his support for Chavez's negotiations with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia to secure the release of hostages.

Right before Hurricane Katrina, Chavez called the training of the USS Bataan (LHD 5) with Mexico the potential invasion of Venezuela by the United States, so anytime I read a comment by Chavez that says "beginning of a war" I think of the boy who cried wolf.

CNN is also reporting 10 tank battalions have been ordered to moved to the border. The rush to react by American citizen observers is hard to watch. I've even read people try to call into action the Rio Treaty, also known as the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance which is a defense treaty between several nations of this hemisphere. It is suggested if Venezuela invades Columbia, the US is obligated under treaty to respond. Ironically, Chavez is invoking the same treaty on behalf of Ecuador. If there is ever a treaty that defines the futility of defense treaties in the modern era, the Rio Treaty is the posterchild.

Isn't it interesting, several days ago the US took out a terrorist inside Pakistan, and even though Pakistan was pissed we attacked a terrorist target in their territory, Americans thought it was the right thing. Further to the irony, this is exactly the position of the Obama campaign to deal with Al Qaeda in Afghanistan.

In this case we have a case where Columbia attacks a FARC leader, recognized as a terrorist by the US government. This is basically the same position of the US against Al Qaeda. We should not be surprised there are some unhappy a nation hit a target in a neighbor though, so the outrage was all but mute.

Israel hit Gaza today, killing as many as 80. We are seeing predictable patterns. We are actually seeing consistency. Clearly despite 9/11, no one really does all it can to 3rd world countries, including in Africa, South America, the Middle East, and SE Asia, to stop supporting non-state military actors, what we generally term terrorists even though they represent insurgencies. Anyone who claims the US is being consistent on that front needs to explain the PKK. The advocacy that takes up for either side in this issue highlights the lack of strategy by the US government. Who is ready to defend Columbia, and watch the price of gasoline go up? Who is ready to watch Chavez topple the government in Columbia? Would America really watch Germany invade Poland again 70 some off years later?

We expect the Navy to be dispatched to quietly, it is unlikely we will see a headline from the Navy, rather we'll learn from a Pentagon leak as the media rushes to give away intelligence regarding US troop movements. The news will play directly into the Chavez propaganda campaign once the leak occurs.

From solely a Navy perspective, this will be very interesting to observe. We believe, as many do, the next CNO will either be Adm. James Stavridis or Admiral William "Fox" Fallon.

Adm. Fallon was seen as a peacemaker in his time in the Pacific, and is now seen as the premier warfighter in his role for CENTCOM. Adm. Stavridis has a reputation solely of that as a peacemaker. If this situation develops into something, or is prevented from doing so in some way, this strikes us as one of the those tests the rest of Adm. Stavridis career may be judged by.

The Caribbean Concern

I remember reading in the comments section of Proceedings, must of been an early 2006 issue, where someone didn't believe the US should build any AIP submarines. The comment was something like, 'unless a potential competitor puts a submarine base in the Caribbean Sea, there is no reason to build AIP submarines for the US Navy.'

The thing about predictions, they sometimes come true.

Russia and Venezuela are at the final stage of talks on a deal to sell three Kilo-Class Project 636 submarines to Venezuela's Navy, which could be clinched in April, Vedomosti business daily said Tuesday.

The Project 636 submarine is designed for anti-submarine warfare and anti-surface-ship warfare, and also for general reconnaissance and patrol missions. It is considered to be one of the quietest diesel submarines in the world.

The paper quoted a Russian government agency official as saying that the $1.4 bln contract was agreed in principle last December and could be signed during President Hugo Chavez's visit to Russia in April, while delivery could start before the end of the year.

The Navy has not developed a technology to invalidate the AIP submarine, a technology that would make most of the Chinese submarine force of 2025 obsolete. We are not sure if that project is underway, although we believe it should be. Until then, the US should begin to examine what "low cost" options exist to blunt any potential submarine force build up in the Caribbean Sea.

We thought this was funny given previous discussions of the Klub and 636.

Dmitry Vasilyev, an expert with the Moscow based Center for Strategic and Technological Studies, said Russia may have agreed to install powerful anti-submarine Club missiles to compensate for its refusal to sell Caracas the Amur submarines.

The issue isn't the weaponry though, the issue is one of strategy. We've already observed the rumors of bringing back the 4th fleet. We aren't impressed. Submarines are low cost platforms that are difficult to counter. The question becomes, what is the low cost counter strategy, or will the Navy attempt to blow out the budget for another high priority, low probability requirement?

4th Fleet Focus: Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick

It started with the Monroe Doctrine, but it was the timeless phrase President Theodore Roosevelt that nicely summarized Americas foreign policy towards South America... or was supposed to anyway. In reality, American foreign policy towards South America is complicated and can be legitimately argued as non-existent, at least the public coherent and explained policy anyway. It was around 1950 the American foreign policy attention span waned in South America, and arguably it continues to be poorly defined.

Ironically, it was 1950 when the US Navy folded the 4th fleet into the US 2nd fleet in Norfolk. Is that a coincidence? Perhaps, but the Great White Fleet started its journey by going to South America first, and that wasn't an accident. Today South America doesn't look anything like the South America of the Monroe Doctrine, President Theodore Roosevelt, or 1950. Today, South America is an emerging economic market the US needs to get engaged with diplomatically, and this little bit of news reflects that reality.

U.S. 4th Fleet, which hunted submarines in the South Atlantic during World War II until it was dissolved almost six decades ago, is on its way back.

The new 4th Fleet would cover a similar area, with plans to operate from Naval Station Mayport, Fla., and oversee operations in Central and South America. The commander of Naval Forces Southern Command would also be the head of 4th Fleet, Navy officials said.

The fleet would not own any ships. Instead, it would operate in the same way Navy forces do in the Persian Gulf region. In U.S. Central Command, one admiral serves as head of both Naval Forces Central Command and 5th Fleet. Therefore, the dual-hatted admiral in charge of 4th Fleet and NavSouth would be under the commander of Southern Command.

And when will the 4th Fleet stand up?

The decision to stand up the fleet, Navy officials said, is within the scope of the chief of naval operations, as changing ship home ports are. But a final go-ahead is still a ways off, though sources say the Navy’s leadership is actively working the issue and strongly in favor of the idea.

A final decision will not come until the Navy has briefed military and congressional leaders.

Sounds like we are still a few years off. We are not sure what to make of this, and expect, like AFRICOM, there is more to this story than what the early press stories reveal. Our initial reaction to this bit of news was sarcasm. Is this an inside move to create more staff positions? The thought crossed our mind, but it is more likely there is some good logic here.

There are regional players that can no longer be ignored. Brazil, for example, shouldn't be ignored. Brazil in 20 years could very easily be what India or China is today, a rising economic and military power. Brazil has a lot of problems to overcome to realize that potential, but the potential most certainly exists and the US is wise not to ignore it, and would be very wise to get engaged with Brazil on the level sooner rather than later.

Another regional player is Venezuela. Huge Chavez may be the darling of western socialists, but his military moves, particularly in regards to building paramilitary forces and questionable policies with assault rifles is troubling. Should Venezuela actually follow through and put 9 AIP submarines in the Caribbean Sea that would be a valid national security concern for a 4th fleet.

It is hard to tell exactly what the reasons are for this move, as it is still early in the process. Regardless, there has been a lot of attention given to South America, between Global Fleet Stations, hospital ship deployments, humanitarian missions, and Partnership deployments the Navy has certainly remained engaged without a numbered fleet.

Final thought: While we threw a bit of snark at this announcement as a first reaction, the best snark is here. It is an old entry, but reddog's comment is a classic!

Does Chávez Control the Military?

You probably caught the Drudge link to Bloomberg that Chavez is shooting his mouth off again, how he thinks oil should be leveraged as a weapon, how the declining dollar is the fall of America, and how $200 a barrel is the predicted price of oil should there ever be war.

For me, the rhetoric was typical and of no interest, even though the New Yorker ran an article praising Chavez last weekend. I read it, left it in the bathroom where it belongs, but basically the New Yorker can't find anything wrong with a guy who is trying to destroy his nations constitution, shoots student protesters, or cracks down on critical media.

Makes me wonder what he would do to the Miami Herald.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez's push to radicalize his leftist ''Bolivarian revolution'' has sparked growing unease in segments of the armed forces, only partially reflected in the recent complaints by a former defense minister, military officers and analysts say.

The observers added junior officers are undisciplined, that there is a profusion of pamphlets criticizing Chávez circulating in military garrisons and resistance by some officers to carry out presidential orders and that there are complaints of corruption among senior officers loyal to Chávez.

Chávez is largely believed to have control of Venezuela's 120,000-strong security forces as the country approaches a Dec. 2 vote on constitutional reforms that would add to his already-vast powers. He has sidelined scores of critical officers and replaced them with loyalists since a 2002 military coup briefly toppled him.

Yet the dissent within the military could spread if voters approve the reforms, according to the analysts.

The article doesn't let up, in fact it piles on and goes on and on regarding the discontent with Chavez in the military. For example, Chavez changed one of his proposals back in August deciding not to remove the national guard. Now we know why.

But while addressing an audience at guard headquarters in Caracas, Carrión met with a group of corporals and ''had the novel experience of hearing the corporals criticize him openly,'' said the colonel, who said he had first-hand knowledge of the incident. Two other Venezuelans told El Nuevo Herald that they had also heard of the incident from guard officers who were present.

'They warned him that not only would they defend the institution from a potential constitutional elimination, but they would also fight to the death `if they come to take our [heavy] guns,' '' the army colonel added.

''That situation led [Carrión] to summon a meeting of the guard's general staff, and they decided to talk to Gen. Gustavo Rangel Briceño, the minister of defense. The minister spoke to Chávez, and [the president] withdrew his intention to eliminate the guard,'' the colonel added.

On Aug. 25, Chávez announced that he was withdrawing his proposal for the national guard.

Observers have assumed that the reason Chavez was off buying heavy conventional military equipment like fighter aircraft and submarines to basically bribe the military. That might be working, but military corruption can create problems too, and sometimes you can't buy off everyone.

The article ends with an interesting quote, ''The Venezuelan soldier is not willing to die for any politician, whether it's Chávez or anyone else,'' Camacho said. ``He is willing to defend his country, the Venezuelan state, but not a government.''

It opens the question, will the military protect the constitution? If Chavez gets violent, then what? The US called on regional actors to address the crackdown in Burma, but when talking about Venezuela, the US is the regional actor.

It Would Be Impressive, If It Wasn't So Depressing

If there was a manual on how to become a dictator, Hugo Chavez would be the textbook example. He has utilized the democratic process flawlessly, only to buy off the military with new toys, consolidate power through economics by placing the energy sector under the control of the executive (not the people like some try to counter), and has crushed dissenting views in the media to establish enough power to now change the constitution so he can remain in power indefinitely.

However, there appears to be dissent. While I don't believe the dissent has a chance in hell of stopping Chavez, it has led me to wonder if there is the possibility of major trouble in Venezuela down the road. I'm not talking about US - Venezuela relations, rather I'm talking about the kind of backlash that can occur when a dictator rises to power. Specifically, since Venezuela is the 3rd largest supplier of crude to the US, I'm wondering whether these events could lead to internal problems in Venezuela that could disrupt energy supply.

While I haven't seen anyone really discuss that point, I have seen a number of articles similar to this popping up lately. Asdrúbal Aguiar, a Venezuelan citizen who works as a professor at Buenos Aires University, stood up against taking part in a potential referendum on the changes to the Constitution. He has an interesting Q&A in this article, which includes:

he (Chavez) substantiated his judgment by saying that democracy cannot be negotiated. Therefore, election as a legitimate means is not consistent with an illegitimate end -consolidation of a dictatorship. "I learned at the Inter-American Court (of Human Rights) that nobody can be tortured to confess his crimes. (President Hugo) Chávez' Marxist ethics -the end justifies the means- runs counter to democratic ethics. Therefore, we can hardly choose an autocrat by democratic means."

...
Q: In other words, there is a conflict here.

A: Absolutely. I am positive that we are before a project with no destiny; that can come true only by making a real, actual use of the armed forces. For this reason, Chávez insists on the concept of a peaceful, yet armed revolution.

The whole Q&A is interesting, because it comes from inside Venezuela as opposed to from the outside looking in. You know, considering the US attention, or clear lack of, in South America over the last several years it is silly for anyone to be surprised by the outcomes of political events in the neighbors to our south. Watching the Chavez conversion of a healthy democracy to a dictatorship would be very impressive, if it wasn't so depressing.

The Rise of a Southern Partner

Meanwhile in South America, completely under the radar, a Navy moves at full speed into the 21st century. While it is true Brazil and Venezuela have recently captured headlines for their Naval moves, the real mover and shaker in South American maritime affairs is Chile.

Most current Naval observers would likely associate the Chilean Navy with its recent Partnership of America's deployment. For the first half of that deployment, the Chilean Frigate Almirante Latorre (FFG 14) deployed with the USS Pearl Harbor (LSD 52), USS Mitscher (DDG 57), and the USS Samuel B Roberts (FFG 58). That deployment only tells half the story.

The Chilean Frigate Almirante Latorre (FFG 14) is one of 4 recently refurbished Dutch frigates incorporated into the Chilean Navy, which also includes the Captain Prat (FFG 11), the Almirante Blanco Encalada (FFG 15), and the Almirante Riveros (FFG 18). These 4 Dutch ships are being joined by an existing Type 22 (Batch II) frigate Almirante Williams (FF 19), the recently acquired Almirante Lynch (FFG 07), and the soon to be received Type 23 frigates Almirante Cochrane (ex- HMS Norfolk) and Almirante Condell (ex- HMS Marlborough).

These 8 ships represent the most powerful naval surface force in South America. They will soon be joined by 2 Scorpene submarines recently commissioned, the O'Higgins and the Carrera.

While impressive, this doesn't make Chile very popular in South America. The increasingly good relationship between the United States and Chile has drawn the ire of countries like Venezuela, who points to Chile's 3.8% of GDP on defense budget as a troubling sign of the region. This increase in defense spending actually has an interesting reason behind it. Military Power Review, a think tank that focuses on affairs in South America recently published a report called "Rearming: The Paradigmatic Cases of Chile and Venezuela and Their Regional Impact." In reviewing that paper the Center for International Policy (CIP) cites Military Power Reviews conclusions saying

There is a permanent rise in the price of copper, parallel to that of petroleum, which increased by 400% between 2002 and 2006 in the international market. This explains to a large degree what the Instituto Nueva Mayoría in Argentina assesses as a "steady but gradual process" of rearming in the last 15 years, accelerated since 2003. In its report "Rearming: The Paradigmatic Cases of Chile and Venezuela and Their Regional Impact," the above mentioned think tank maintains that the Chilean Defense Ministry retains a large degree of autonomy when it comes to formulating its policies thanks to the Secret Copper Law that earmarks a certain percentage of the exports of the metal to the armed forces.

The Chilean military reduced its personnel in the last decade from 120,000 to 40,000, and it reorganized and created eight brigades, giving priority to mobility and fire power. Chile acquired 100 German Leonard II heavy tanks, retaining the ability to acquire several more, and 28 F-16 airplanes equipped with AMRAAN missiles and air-air laser bombs, unknown until now in the region. Of even larger impact is its purchase of two modern Scorpene Franco-German submarines as well as eight missile frigates, maritime patrol airplanes, and oil tankers. "Media experts have concluded that taking into account the relative sizes of Brazil and Chile's GNP, the latter spends six times more economic resources on military equipment than the main power in the region," says Nueva Mayoría.

That is sort of accurate, but the Copper Law isn't a secret, what CIP is missing here is that Democracies don't make defense policy a secret like say Venezuela does.

Venezuela has raised legitimate questions with its behavior, while at the same time it has become the 3rd largest importer of oil to the United States behind Canada and Mexico. Venezuela has close ties to Bolivia, a country with a number of disputes with Chile, foremost being the loss of territories to Chile in the 1879-1883 War when Bolivia lost its access to the Pacific. Peru was also engaged in that war, and disputes stemming from the maritime border between Peru and Chile exist even to today.

There is no shortage of alarmist attitudes in South America regarding Chile, with much of it stemming from the Chilean economic boom of Copper combined with the massive modernization of the military. However, none of these concerns appear to be shared with Western nations, all of whom have excellent and improving relations with Chile.

United States policy for South America has been largely an afterthought under the Bush administration, but events are happening despite the apparent absence of US interest in the region. The United States needs to get publicly engaged, and with booming economies in Brazil and Chile, combined with expanding maritime roles for both in maintaining peace in the Global Commons, opportunity for establishing close ties to South America is knocking.

2nd Fleet Focus: Venezuela's Growing Navy

The US 2nd Fleet's Area of Responsibility is steadily becoming a focus of US policy. The two areas getting attention include the western coastof Africa, specifically the Gulf of Guinea, but also the Caribbean region with the problematic Hugo Chavez. A January 22nd, 2007 CRS report on "Latin America: Terrorism Issues" summed up the concern for the new Congress regarding Venezuela:

According to the State Department’s April 2006 terrorism report, Venezuela has virtually ceased its cooperation in the global war on terror, tolerated terrorist in its territory, and sought close relations with Cuba and Iran, both state sponsors of terrorism. As noted above, Colombian terrorist groups use Venezuela territory for safehaven, although it is unclear whether and to what extent the government of President Hugo Chávez provides material support to these terrorist groups and at what level. According to the State Department report, Venezuelan citizenship, identity, and travel documents are easy to obtain, making the country a potentially attractive way-station for terrorists. In mid-May 2006, the Department of State, pursuant to Section 40A of the Arms Export Control Act, prohibited the sale or license of defense article and services to Venezuela because of its lack of cooperation on antiterrorism efforts. Other countries on the Section 40A list include Cuba, Iran, North Korea, and Syria, not to be confused with the “state sponsors of terrorism” list under Section 6(j) of the Export Administration Act of 1979. (For further information, see CRS Report RL32488, Venezuela: Political Conditions and U.S. Policy.)

In late May, Chavez declared war on the media within Venezuela. As a follow up, Venezuela is making headlines this week with reports out of Russia that President Hugo Chavez is looking to buy submarines from Russia. This isn't actually new news, it is just details of old news, this time in English. Back in January Mer et Marine ran a story that a Venezuelan admiral was looking to buy 9 SSKs. As the story went, they originally approached DCN regarding the Scorpene, but France wasn't interested. Venezuela then went looking for other options, including the Russian Amur and German U212, but also found Mer et Marine was interested and would sell Venezuela the S-80. Since the S-80 has US equipment in it, the Scorpene is a more likely sell (they are co-owner of the Scorpene project with DCN).

The story faded and there wasn't much news about Venezuelan submarines until now. There are some details that Mer et Marine released back in January regarding the Venezuela purchase, among them 50 days autonomy and an AIP requirement. From the details released in the Russian media, it would appear the Russians would sell Venezuela 5 Kilo class and 4 Amus class. It will be interesting to see what happens, not only to see if the Germans get involved in the competition (unlikely) but if Venezuela actually follows through.

Submarines isn't the only naval equipment Venezuela is buying though, they are in the market for small boats too.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez authorized the Navy Commander Vice-admiral Benigno Remigio Calvo to enter into a USD 261 million "trade agreement" with Spanish firm Rodman Polyships for joint construction of 66 boats and purchase of construction material for other 40 units to be manufactured in Venezuela.

It would appear Iranian Maritime Strategy has made its way to Venezuela. The story of the buy from Rodman Polyships SAU isn't specific regarding the type or weapons, however Rodman offers types in sizes from 10m to 44m with speeds from 30 to 50 knots.

Whenever any country puts 9 new SSKs in your backyard, the 2nd Fleet should be concerned. A 2007 Comparative Atlas of Defense and Security in Latin America, prepared by the Network of Security and Defense of Latin America (Resdal), sums up the growing Venezuala military.

The Venezuelan Armed Force comprises 92,350 officers, excluding the National Guard -which is described in the study as an "administrative police corps"- and the complementary "bodies" such as the Military Reserve and the
Territorial Guard.

Including the four branches of the Armed Force (Army, Aviation, Navy and National Guard) the number raises to 129,150 people. Almost half of them (49 percent) are in the Army (63,350 officers); 28.5 percent in the National Guard (36,800 people); 13.6 percent in the Navy (17,500 officers) and 8.9 percent in the Aviation (11,500 people), said Rocío San Miguel, one of the Venezuelan representatives to the network founded in 2001.

The "National Guard" and "Administrative Police Corps" are not what the names imply. These are political military organizations, not law enforcement, that are more akin to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard than the Alabama National Guard. Last December the Federation of American Scientists blog weighed in on the concern of an arms build up in South America, and the problems with Venezuela's current policy. The money quote:

While Chavez’s colorful insults steal the headlines, the issue of greatest importance—the influx of thousands of rifles and millions of rounds of ammunition into a region rife with black market arms trafficking—has received scant meaningful attention.

What does the arms buildup mean? A Second Falklands? Probably not, but a review of ASW capabilities in the Caribbean followed by a number of high profile exercises wouldn't be a bad response.

(Bottom Picture Caption) An army sniper takes part in a military exercise in La Guaira, about 30 km (20 miles) outside Caracas June 6, 2006. The exercise for unconventional warfare and resistance is meant to repel a foreign invasion and defend Venezuela's territory and sovereignty, officials said. (VENEZUELA) 06 Jun 2024 REUTERS/Jorge Silva