Looking for Political Leadership in Haiti

A few stories to read from overnight to give a sense of the situation on the ground.

Haiti earthquake: confusion at airport hampers aid effort - UK Telegraph
Security fears mount in lawless post-earthquake Haiti - Washington Post
U.S. Troops to Help Haiti's Security; Aid Flows In - New York Times
Aid frustration: 'We're racing against the clock' - USA Today
Haiti quake severely strains telecom services - USA Today
Haiti PM fears 200,000 dead in quake - CCTV

This story from USA Today, Body count, lawlessness rise in quake-ravaged Haiti, gives the general tone of the breakdown of order.

Conditions in earthquake-ravaged Haiti grew worse Sunday as thousands of survivors begged for food and water, bulldozers dumped bodies into mass graves, and lawlessness increased.

Bulldozer after bulldozer dumped buckets full of corpses mixed with debris into a mass grave at a cemetery in downtown Port-au-Prince, the capital. Arms and legs of victims dangled from the side of one bulldozer's bucket as it prepared to dump bodies into a trench full of rotting, bloated bodies.

Just outside the cemetery gates, a young man who had been shot three times lay in a pool of blood on the sidewalk. Residents said police had suspected the man and three others of stealing.

"They lined up all four and shot them," said Clifford Cadet, 15, who explained that he'd seen the developments from the opposite sidewalk. "This one took three shots," Cadet said of the man lying on the ground.

Keep in mind these are the people who are in charge in Haiti. Great starting place, eh? Rajiv Shah is leading the US effort from Washington, but can you name the American in charge on the ground in Haiti?

As SOUTHCOM tells the press, U.S. military forces are mobilizing to support international disaster relief efforts underway in Haiti following the Jan. 12 earthquake that ravaged the Caribbean nation. The focus of the mission, named Unified Response, is search and rescue and disaster relief. All military efforts are in support of USAID, which is orchestrating U.S. government contributions to the relief mission.

Lt. Gen. P. K. Keen is leading Joint Task Force - Haiti from Port-au-Prince, but who is in charge of the entire US humanitarian effort in Haiti? USAID, not the DoD, is the lead agency. The humanitarian effort isn't even a primary DoD role in Haiti, and security was expected to be the role of the UN although I believe the US has been factoring into planning the DoD would play some role there. Will the DoD also find mission creep with the humanitarian relief aspect as well? The US government has not answered US media questions why NGOs and DoD are so uncoordinated in Haiti, and on the ground in Haiti, who would even be the person responsible for answering that question?

Leadership matters a lot right now, specifically political leadership in a country that has absolutely no political leadership at all that can be counted on. President René Préval has not even addressed his own people yet regarding the earthquake. It is still my impression the Obama administration appears to be completely unaware of how much trouble Haiti can bring upon his Presidency. Where is the Michael Brown of Haiti so we can get some answers? At least that fool was in Louisiana. We should be managing the coordination problems better than has been done to date, suggesting there is something within the system that is not working as expected.

My best guess is that Lt. Gen. Keen is the American in charge in Haiti, but if true, that raises several questions regarding the leadership arrangement. Are we really expecting an Army General to represent the US political leadership inside Haiti? That doesn't sound right. Should we really be surprised that the rest of the world is starting to criticize the US government over Haiti, when the political leadership situation in Haiti is so murky? The population in Haiti is completely disconnected from their own political leadership. 6 days later not a single American can name who the American political leader in Haiti is, and the UN continues to tell the world how beat up they are in Haiti.

Things will continue to get much worse inside Haiti before they get better. Lots of pictures of Marines by media may slow down or distract from global criticism of the US, but we'll have to wait and see. Even as hundreds, potentially thousands, will die again tomorrow throughout the hospitals in Port-au-Prince; we have not reached the tipping point.

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The Navy has established a Haiti Earthquake Relief website. This article lists several new ships heading to Haiti, and notes USNS Grasp (T-ARS 51) has arrived. I think all of us are curious what USNS 1st LT Jack Lummus (T-AK 3011) is bringing to Haiti.

Monday Begins 4th Fleet Week in Haiti - Updated

**See updates at bottom of article.

There are many reasons to be cautiously optimistic, even if the images that will beam into your television screen over the next 48 hours are likely to leave one with a different impression. The President dispatching the Secretary of State to Haiti was an important political and strategic move in support of Haiti, because it sends exactly the right message to the rest of the world. It is unlikely that most Haitian people in Port-au-Prince were even aware of her visit.

The issue is time. The time for recovery operations will end in the very near future and transition to becoming the largest relief operation in the history of the Western Hemisphere. The purpose of Hillary Clinton's visit is many fold, but basically the Secretary of State trip was strategically important to buy time for the United States, the United Nations, and the government of Haiti. Lets briefly examine in reverse order.

The communication emphasis by the State Department is that the Haitian government is leading the effort. There is apparently some truth in that, because the Haitian government effectively led the Toussaint L'Ouverture International Airport in Port-au-Prince right into a logistical nightmare Thursday. They had to fail first to concede operations of the airport to a more capable authority, specifically the US Air Force. Within the context of the unfolding international effort, there will be times the Haitian government will attempt to lead and be allowed to fail in order for more competent authorities to take control. This process has caused delays already in many ways, which is why the US, UN, and international community has to politically buy time for Haiti so the government will get out of their own way. NGO experts who understand Haiti privately will frame this a different way, much less kind than I. We may see more examples of this over the next few days.

The United Nations also needs time. The leadership of the United Nations was decapitated by the earthquake, and as a truly international force each member has been working recovery efforts towards their own people first - as they should. As recovery shifts towards relief, the UN effort will likely become more visible but will remain concentrated to a limited number of locations. Communication challenges are significant for the United Nations, and it will restrict to a great deal what they are capable of doing out among the people until those issues are addressed sufficiently. It will take a great deal of time for the UN to pick itself back up in Haiti, the loss of hundreds of experts and leaders has significantly set back the UN in Haiti, and they need time to regroup.

The United States also needs time, and Hillary Clinton's visit today buys a few days. CCTV, Al Jazeera, BBC, and a great number of other news organizations around the world remain focused on Haiti - the whole world is watching. Barack Obama cannot afford for the world to lose confidence in US efforts to support Haiti. It is a serious political consideration because when the world thinks you are not doing a sufficient job, it can create political distractions. Barack Obama does not need political distractions right now, something leaders in the rest of the world could potentially create. I suspect that one of the next big moves by the White House will be to call for a large international meeting of world leaders to discuss the Haiti situation.

As has been discussed, there are significant strategic interests to the United States at stake. If the US is seen as not sufficiently responding to Haiti in our backyard, it opens up the US to global criticism that will create all kinds of political problems for the President. Rivals will insure our important allies notice that should we be unable to help a country only a few hundred miles from Florida, we would unlikely be able to live up to our commitments in Asia, the Middle East, and elsewhere. If you saw any press conferences today, particularly the Biden press conference, the administration is making emotional appeals that include patience globally by stressing the enormous scope of the disaster and complexity of the effort to respond. The effort is on throughout government at almost every level to set expectations through strategic communications.

It may not make some NGOs happy that the Secretary of State visited Haiti because her plane went instead of someone else, but the parochial issues of a very few NGOs had created other problems we'll discuss in a minute.

The United States Navy is about to do many amazing things in Haiti, and it is going to be interesting to watch it unfold on television. Before looking ahead though, lets review the last 48 hours.

On Friday the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) was only able to fly 15 sorties all day, with the helicopters reportedly sitting idle on the flight deck by late afternoon and all night Friday night. Night operations were restricted at the airport because of unlighted power lines and no lights for the control towers. Why were they idle during the day and fly so few sorties? Rear Admiral Ted Branch explains:

"We have no supplies at the airport that we have access to. There are other supplies there that are under the control of other agencies, other organizations and we haven't yet coordinated together to make those supplies available for anyone to deliver," he added...

"We need to get that kind of supply chain process energized to have an efficient route point for the supplies. Unfortunately that doesn't happen overnight," Branch said.

The commander noted that some supplies remain at the airport, and could easily be delivered by US helicopters.

"The problem is, some people are perhaps not ready to release their stuff to the most efficient transportation makers and want to deliver supplies themselves."

Some NGOs were complaining that the US Secretary of State was able to go to Haiti, and their supplies were not allowed in. Well, when a few NGOs made their own relief effort a bigger priority than the overall effort to help the people of Haiti, I imagine that didn't sit well with the Secretary of State. The priority changed, at least for some flights on Saturday, to getting relief supplies to Haiti that can be delivered by the US Navy helicopters that have more mobility in the area than the NGOs expecting flights.

Rear Admiral Ted Branch may have said "that doesn't happen overnight," but based on everything I read and saw on Saturday it looks like he did indeed straighten out whatever supply chain problems there were for his forces overnight. See the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) Facebook page for photography of Saturdays operations. The USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) is building up capability to very shortly begin providing relief to several hundred thousand Haitians a day.

Over the last 48 hours several other activities have been set in motion. The Friday night press conference by SOUTHCOM was excellent. We learned the State Department is supporting a Haitian government radio station and that there were 24 helicopters by Friday supporting relief operations in Haiti. On Saturday morning ADM Roughead told reporters at the USS Independence (LCS 2) commissioning that the Navy intends to build an airport in Haiti. The statement was unclear whether that means expanding the current airport, or start from scratch.

Rear Admiral Victor G. Guillory told the media the Navy is focused on the Port-au-Prince port facilities, and there are several vessels heading to Haiti to assist in that effort. Currently off the coast of Haiti is the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), USS Higgins (DDG-76), and four Coast Guard cutters. 22 MEU expects to arrive on Monday on USS Bataan (LHD 5), USS Carter Hall (LSD 50), and USS Fort McHenry (LSD 43), although I read a rumor that USS Carter Hall (LSD 59) may arrive Sunday, being one day ahead of the other two ships. En route is the very important Coast Guard cutter Oak, a buoy tender that can do significant good in the port. This report goes on to note:

Other ships on the way to assist in the operation are the dock landing ship USS Gunston Hall (LSD 41), the cruiser USS Normandy (CG 60), the frigate USS Underwood (FFG 36), the rescue and salvage ship USNS Grasp (ARS 51) and the oceanographic survey ship USNS Henson (T-AGS 63). Additionally, several auxiliary ships from the Military Sealift Command (MSC) are en route and will provide fuel and supplies to sustain the Navy force at sea throughout the operation.

The most noteworthy ship deployment is not mentioned in that Navy report: USNS 1st LT Jack Lummus (T-AK 3011) is scheduled to depart Jacksonville for Haiti on Sunday. Despite being the last asset listed under Navy on the SOUTHCOM Fact File, I believe this is the second most important vessel yet to arrive in Haiti, with the USNS Comfort (T-AH 20) (PDF) being the first.

It is hard to imagine how any other single asset in the world can significantly change the logistics situation in Haiti more effectively than what I expect to be coming on USNS 1ST LT Jack Lummus (T-AK 3011). I suspect she will arrive on Wednesday, which means the Navy may have a Sea Base built and ready for receiving relief by sea by next weekend, just in time for the CNO to talk about it at CNAS on the 26th.

Also not mentioned but listed by SOUTHCOM to be heading for Haiti is USNS Big Horn (T-AO 198), for obvious reasons.

The security problem to date appears to be manageable, even though there are some areas of the city relief workers are being told not to go into right now. The 22 MEU Marines can fix that problem until the UN is ready to resume management, and absent a widespread breakdown of civil order there may be enough boots on the ground to get on top of the relief effort. Based on press reports I am presuming the 24 MEU with Nassau ARG and additional forces from the 2nd Brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division represent the reserve force for security should that become necessary.

There is still one very significant problem ahead. Haiti can suffer from outbreaks of disease on a normal day, and the conditions in Haiti are ripe for a major outbreak. There are thousands of Haitians in need of medical treatment today that will die over the next week. Thousands. The rush to get medical supplies and mobile hospitals into Haiti is not to save those people; many of them will die. The rush is to insure the medical facilities are in place should and perhaps when the major disease outbreak occurs in Haiti. If medical support is on the ground in time, a disease breakout can be managed. Without those NGO hospitals up and supplied, this goes from the very bad it already is to a completely different form of bad we've never seen unfold on live TV before.

Over the next few days, things will continue to get worse in Haiti before they get better. There are many degrees of worse that are still possible though. Right now, only thousands more will die from infection. There is still the potential thousands can turn into tens of thousands, or more, and the resources necessary to prevent the continuing slide towards tens of thousands or more deaths will not yet be in place by late Tuesday afternoon, the one week anniversary of the earthquake.

We are starting to see what the plan is and how it will unfold over the next week. From here on out there is nothing left to do but watch it unfold, observe whether we sufficiently planned the response, and observe to see if we are adaptive to crisis situations that may still emerge. I am cautiously optimist that this is going to work, and when I see the CNO speak on January 26th, it could very well be one of the best public relations days in the Navy to date in the 21st century. I pray it is, for the sake of the people in Haiti.

Update: And update from Captain Conrad Chun, CNO Spokesman.

ADM Roughead DID NOT say "that the Navy intends to build an airport in Haiti." What the CNO said, as stated in the referenced Reuters article is that we were "literally moving in an airport," referring to the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson on station off the coast of Haiti.

Apparently I took the CNO too literally.

The Calm Before The Storm in Haiti

At Southern Command, we are also working with our partner nations to meet challenges to the Community of the Americas—whether they are international terrorism, illicit trafficking, international crime, poverty, inequality, corruption, radical movements, illegally armed groups, mass human migrations, natural disasters, or other humanitarian crises. It is critical to this endeavor that we also stem the tide of anti-U.S. populism and open the door for improved prosperity and security in the region. Through communicating to the people of the region our shared values, what in today's military is called "strategic communications," we are sending the message that we are collectively committed to the people of the Community of the Americas.

Sailing in Southern Waters: A New Wind, By Admiral James Stavridis, USN, Proceedings, May 2007

On Friday morning as you wake up and read this post, there will begin to be media panic that chaos is breaking out throughout Port-au-Prince. The State Department and SOUTHCOM have hopefully already predicted this event in the unfolding crisis. We are entering a 48-72 hour phase where the absence of physical security becomes a contributing factor to the existing catastrophe. It will not be an indicator of failure however, even if it may be suggested as such on TV as hours and hours of coverage unfold over a three day weekend in the United States. It should, however, serve as a reminder that failure to set expectations with strategic communications by US government leadership to both our citizens and the world over the last 48 hours will have set back our global strategic communications efforts made in the emerging soft power campaign.

Things are going to get a lot worse in Haiti before they get better, and that was never clearly articulated by the President, State Department, SOUTHCOM, or Rajiv Shah to the American people, who may begin to doubt our governments efforts in the very near future. President Obama is positioned to take a political hit for what happens over the next 48-72 hours for apparently having advisors who are treating Haiti as anything but the most important event of his political career to date.

In my opinion, and I will let time determine the accuracy, so far it is my impression the Obama administration appears to be completely unaware of how much trouble Haiti can bring upon his Presidency. I'll bet a Heineken keg that if the President attends a Martin Luther King event Monday instead of focus on what is going to be a political public relations nightmare unfolding in Haiti on television, it will cost the President 5 points in his approval ratings and he will be dogged by claims from his own political party that he is as distracted with Haiti as Bush was during Katrina.

The stakes at risk in Haiti are high for SOUTHCOM and the Navy, even if the Department of Defense is not the lead agency in Haiti. The trust and relationships that have been built on promises kept to the Caribbean and Latin America by ADM Stavridis in SOUTHCOM will come crumbling down around us if we do not get Haiti right. The Navy has made several decisions over the past many years that shape the resources available today for Haiti. This included several calculated bets that have been discussed in the halls of Congress many times. The wisdom of those decisions is soon to be determined, and failure to meet the demand placed on the Navy by the American public's interest in Haiti right now will create damning public criticism that will significantly influence any plans for POM 12.

The outbreak of violence in Haiti and the perception of chaos on television is not what has my alarm bells going off. My alarm bells are going off because I am not convinced by the information that has been released to the public that SOUTHCOM is pushing hard enough. Today's press conference is illustrative, and I would not be surprised to learn if reporters in attendance walked away concerned. I do not get a sense of urgency in 'leaning resources forward' from General Doug Fraser that the situation appears to demand. With that said, lets examine what the Navy is doing.

Tomorrow morning the United States carrier Carl Vinson will arrive on station. It will bring with it a complement of 19 helicopters. It has 30 pallets of relief goods. And it will now provide the platform in which we can take care -- get around the poor infrastructure in Haiti to get goods to where they need to be, most needed. And so we'll work actively to support that during that time frame.

In addition, on the 19th we will have three ships of an amphibious ready group, headed by the USS Bataan, with roughly 2,200 Marines, heavy equipment, and the ability to move that heavy equipment from ship to shore to start providing capacity and capability there. We will continue over those days to have elements of the 82nd Airborne Division arrive with approximately 1,000 -- excuse me -- 700 soldiers will be on the ground within the next four days. They're there to help assist in the relief efforts.

And finally, on the 22nd we'll have the United States Navy ship the Comfort. The hospital ship Comfort will arrive in Haiti. We are aggressively pursuing every action we can to provide relief to Haiti.

This is an awesome response by the Navy based on initial calls to action of 2 days ago while we still lacked solid information to work with in the early hours of an emerging crisis. What is currently in motion as outlined represents the decisions of the first 48 hours, and is very commendable. With that said, the decisions of the next 48-72 hours carry with them serious consequences for our nation, and I do not get the sense with the public statements that the severity of the strategic consequences is being recognized at many levels of government.

Lets start by looking at more solid information learned over the first 48 hours.

Facts: 48 Hours Later

The State Department has identified the solid number of three million people that are in need of aid. There are currently two pipelines into Haiti. One would be the limited roads from the Dominican Republic that have already been log jammed at the border and has everything moving very slowly. Fuel on the road is already a major concern. The other pipeline is a single runway airport, also log jammed and also suffering from fuel concerns.

We obviously cannot depend on the limited road system from the Dominican Republic or the single runway airport to meet the logistical demands of a catastrophe involving 3,000,000 people. Rajiv Shah needs a logistics expert - like yesterday, or he is going to have a real short term at USAID. This WSJ article begins by describing the mess the Air Force was dealing with Thursday at the Toussaint L'Ouverture International Airport in Port-au-Prince, but goes on to identify the bigger problem is the condition of the port in Port-au-Prince.

Making matters worse is the that supplies cannot come in by sea. Haiti's main seaport has "collapsed and is not operational," says Maersk Line's Mary Ann Kotlarich. The main dock is partially submerged. Cranes that moved containers on and off ships at the port are now partially under water and listing badly. Ships carrying supplies have nowhere to dock.

Numerous maritime companies are trying to devise stop-gap solutions, but nothing is in place yet.

"Nothing has been proposed that would really be a solution at this point," says Mark Miller of Crowley Maritime Corp., a Jacksonville, Fla., shipping company that maintains an extensive logistics network in the Caribbean.

Maersk Line operates a small ship that unloads containers from larger vessels and then brings them to the port. That vessel is currently anchored off the coast of Port-au-Prince, as the company tries to determine how it can be put to use.

Shipping companies are now examining other areas in the vicinity to see if they can find a place that could serve as a makeshift unloading area for ships.

The port issue will make or break the entire effort in Haiti. Regardless of everything else happening right now, the units being deployed as outlined in this Navy Times article will ultimately determine how the world sees the US effort in Haiti. If they are able to rapidly reopen port services, the US will achieve a significant strategic victory in the 21st century. If they are unable to rapidly reopen port services, the consequences will be devastating to the strategic interests of the United States.

The people are going to start getting hungry and thirsty, and social order is going to start breaking down over the next 48-72 hours. Nineteen small Navy helicopters are not going to be able to meet the demands of 3,000,000 people, nor will they come close to reaching or even being consistently visible to a significant number of those people. How far would you go to provide food and fresh water for your family when social order is breaking down everywhere around you?

The Next 48-72 Hours Matter

The other day at the Surface Navy Association’s annual symposium, ADM Harvey discussed concerns regarding the consequences of Norfolk being taken out of operation. The maritime services have participated in many conferences since 9/11 discussing the responses necessary to open ports following disaster. In the situation before us today, Port-au-Prince represents a port of 3 million people less than 1000 nautical miles from Norfolk that following this catastrophe, requires the port facilities opened for survival.

As I am looking at the assets that will be moved into place, my concern is that because distances at sea add time to response, and because the scope of the disaster is so large, I have serious concerns that sufficient resources will not be arriving in time to influence the soft power strategic objectives at stake with Haiti. So far in the 21st century, when "shit happens" on land, the most important resources provided by the US Navy to support US operations on land have been aircraft carriers, the Naval Expeditionary Combat Command, and the Maritime Sealift Command. I have several questions, and I believe some of the answers to these questions will be indicators of a successful US response or an unsuccessful US response unfolding.

How long will it take the Naval Expeditionary Combat Command to open up the port in Port-au-Prince? I think everyone in the United States with concerns of a disaster in a major US port should watch closely to see what that answer is.

How effective will the helicopter operations of the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) be in meeting the demands of this crisis? Will the decision by the US Navy not to build a medium lift helicopter carry significant consequences regarding the capacity for the US Navy to respond to this disaster?

Has SOUTHCOM responded sufficiently with US assets, specifically assets carried forward by the MSC related to supporting over the shore logistics? Will SOUTHCOM insure enough pipelines are available from sea to sufficiently meet the quantity of aid that will be required to support a humanitarian operation of 3 million people in a timely manner? If ships with full loads of aid end up sitting off the coast while people are visibly starving, SOUTHCOM will lose credibility with nations throughout the region.

Can only three amphibious ships provide enough capability to support the over the shore logistics requirements for a large city without a functioning sea port? How influential would the capabilities of the proposed, but rumored to be canceled in FY2011 budget, Sea Basing concept be to this operation? General Conway needs to send a memo to Ray Mabus that his February 16 wargame is happening right now in Haiti.

The Marine Corps is poised to be the only winner in an operation where the potential for many losers exist. The Marines understand HA/DR, strategic communications, and soft power better than anyone else the US - including the State Department in my opinion. Perhaps the Marine Corps should be mobilizing more than just a single MEU or two, just in case? 3,000,000 people is a lot of people.

How proactive is SOUTHCOM being in preparing follow on assets that may be necessary before full awareness is determined regarding the requirements? Are we accurately predicting events before they unfold, controlling the chaos as necessary as we place assets? I am specifically thinking of security requirements for 3,000,000 people should large scale violence break out, but my thoughts in this regard also include assets like MSC vessels with equipment like INLS that an amphibious construction battalion might need to potentially open a harbor location outside the existing port facilities.

So far, the response by the rest of the international community have not been very significant, suggesting that it is possible the rest of the world expects the US to do the vast majority of the work. To answer yesterday's question that asked who will be the nation to step up like India did after the 2004 SE Asian Tsunami - the answer appears to be no one. This is a troubling early trend.

I believe the strategic success of Haiti operations rests upon a sufficient quantity of supplies being capable of reaching the people of Haiti by sea in time to prevent a catastrophe to turn into something much worse. It is the responsibility of the Navy to enable port access, a responsibility the Navy cannot afford to fail in executing.

Strategic Communications

One topic kept popping up today among many observers: why is China kicking the State Department's ass in strategic communication in Haiti? It doesn't look good when somehow the Chinese can get a fully loaded plane into Haiti all the way from China before we can get many of our own search and rescue teams in from the US. I sat dumbfounded watching CNN this afternoon seeing a big red Chinese flag waiving in the background, and became frustrated when I saw a different Chinese flag an hour later behind an NBC reporter in a different area. There cannot possibly be that many Chinese in Haiti already, and they did bring humanitarian supplies and not flags, right? What the heck is going on?

This is soft power; symbolism and perception matters a lot to achieving strategic objectives in disaster recovery and humanitarian response operations. In the opening hours of crisis, the people are still in shock. The first 48 hours is the calm before the storm, and every detail in public communication and public diplomacy matters. I was seriously impressed when I saw State Department folks engaged in an actual conversation on Twitter today, but every element of government needs to get organized a bit better in the online space.

How many different map applications do we really need anyway? Here is the Navy's version of a Haiti map, IE only, and does not include information on the ground from folks who are uploading to open source maps. Everyone has a map meaning there are many maps, but if everyone knew to use the same map it could be advertised and utilized by people on the ground with phones capable of reading maps. Maps are an example where the lack of synchronization in agency capabilities is hampering an information opportunity, and many maps is just as effective as no maps in contributing towards a whole of government common picture that interfaces with the public on the ground. Someone at State or DoD needs to organize information opportunities like maps and other redundant data generation opportunities emerging in the crisis towards common and shared goals where governments, private groups, and people can organize, utilize, and synchronize.

Is the Twitter hash tag the Navy uses #Haiti or #USHelpsHaiti? You people in Navy information office need to get on the same page now that you have shifted virtually all of your strategic communications to online and social media. You also need to engage the American people, because simply broadcasting facts or photos creates almost no connection between your communication efforts and the very real personnel patriotic unity that is eminating from the people of the United States over Haiti right now. Navy information folks need to be real people in giving information right now, and not only a link provider. Navy information folks are connecting our Navy's actions with our nations people; be a live connection.

If the US Navy ships off Haiti are not flying their battle flags, then the US Navy has not spent enough intellectual energy developing a comprehensive soft power strategy in disaster response. I was disappointed today when a photo of the USS Carl Vinson flying the battle flag at sprint speed after dawn did not pop up as the front page picture on Navy.mil. A strategic communication opportunity wasted in my opinion, and it would have been a hell of a lot more significant towards shaping the perception of the US Navy response in Haiti than anything that might come from repeating the CHINFO Rhumb Lines talking points distributed on the crisis today.

It will probably be worth the time and effort to get a picture from the three ship ARG flying battle flags Saturday afternoon when the press starts pressing home the chaotic picture in Haiti on 24/7 news. The US Navy needs to prepare for the coming battle for hearts and minds, including those at home whose confidence in the effort will begin to waiver as events turn chaotic in Haiti.

Beginning Friday, the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) becomes the representative of the emotional and financial unified patriotic American sympathy and support the American people are extending to the Haitian people, and the US Navy needs to be clearly thinking in detail about how to best represent that American spirit when conducting operations in what will likely soon turn into chaotic conditions.

It is a three day weekend for most Americans with Martin Luther King holiday coming Monday, and as social order breaks down in Haiti, the events in Haiti are going to be widely observed by the American people. The decisions made and the actions taken over the next 48-72 hours will significantly influence the perception of the entire world regarding the United States, the United States Navy, and whether he realizes it or not - the President of the United States himself.

Given the scale of the crisis and the interest and attention it is receiving globally, it is very likely the legacies of people ranging from Rajiv Shah, Hillary Clinton, General Doug Fraser, and Barack Obama will be determined based on decisions made over the next few days and the events of the next week. If the Navy struggles to open the port, Admiral Roughead may take incoming as well.

Perception is a powerful thing, and one of the most important things in achieving soft power strategic objectives during HA/DR operations. I hope everyone has been advised what is at stake in Haiti.

Observing Haiti and Operation Unified Response

Two weeks ago, the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) became the symbol of American power and compassion as the ship sailed offshore Port-au-Prince and began helicopter operations following Haiti's devastating earthquake. Two weeks later the situation in Haiti has improved considerably, although problems and challenges still exist.

I am not usually a big fan of Thomas Donnelly, he is kind of hit or miss with me on issues, but I highly recommend his article Mission to Haiti in the Weekly Standard. I would take it one step further than Thomas Donnelly does though. I would advise the President to consider negotiating for a Naval base in Haiti. The lease for a potential Naval Base for 99 years would be a great way to insure money in support of rebuilding the country.

We don't necessarily have to build the base immediately, rather just use the land as a place to store the billions of dollars of equipment that is heading to Haiti now in support of this relief effort. One idea might be to lease and build the base in cooperation with Canada, Mexico, and Brazil - promoting buy-in from regional partners. Shared responsibility and shared costs using a potentially less efficient but nonetheless effective western Berlin model for sustained presence. Regardless of what is decided, discussing Haiti in the long term needs to begin sooner than later.

I have been holding off all week on discussing Haiti. The result is, I have a lot to say.

Mass Information

If you are having trouble finding good data on Haiti, you are not alone. I have only been able to find 2 useful sources for good statistical information on military operations in Haiti: APAN and Blogger Roundtables. If you know of another, please let me know.

There is probably more official information on Haiti available from the DoD than any other operation the DoD is involved in, including Iraq and Afghanistan. It really is remarkable, the Twitter - Facebook - social - viral - network strategy has been very effective, and you can simply search hash tags in Twitter to see how many tens of thousands are seeing official Navy information. From a mass information distribution perspective, the US has scored an A+.

The problem is the information is mostly useless. It shows work being done, but doesn't give explanation of how mission is being accomplished. There are no public maps, no discussions of what the 22 MEU is trying to do, the 24 MEU is trying to do, or what the Navy is trying to do. "Open the port" and "deliver aid" is about as detailed as some of the information gets, except in some places.

Want to see a picture of the hardest working Navy-Marine-Coast Guard team in the world, watch Twitter or Facebook. Want to find out what is going on in Haiti? Good luck to the average American. Apparently the DoD will show the American people a video of a smart bomb hitting a building on Arab soil but won't show a map of how Marines are saving lives in Haiti. What, did the $61 million raised by George Clooney not reveal the level of interest by the American people in Haiti?

We are two weeks into the largest military operation since the Iraq War and there have been exactly zero briefings where a map was used in a press briefing with someone showing what our military is doing in Haiti. Dvidshub has been an excellent source of information, but SOUTHCOM does need to do a better job of providing public information of their biggest operation in history. Examples below.

Fuzzy Math

Rear Adm. Ted Branch, Commander, Carrier Strike Group One aboard USS Carl Vinson, gave a bloggers roundtable on Tuesday January 27th discussing operations off of Haiti. I missed it, but Navy News Service has an article on the interview, and the transcript is available here (PDF).

So far, Branch's strike group has performed 1,979 flights, nearly 1,600 of which were mission-related operations, delivering personnel and supplies. Medical evacuations made up 375 of the sorties.

These flights made up "the bulk of the vertical lift used" in the Navy's effort, he said.

A bit of math here. The USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) arrived on January 15th and the roundtable was the 27th. Assuming the numbers were through the 26th, that means an average of almost 180 flights per day with an average of ~145 mission related per day. As this began with 25 helicopters on day 1 and has ramped up to around 63 today, these suggest very impressive numbers.

Branch said the Navy as a whole has brought more than a million pounds of cargo to Haiti, including 87,000 gallons of water, nearly 162 tons of food, 345,400 pounds of medical supplies, 75 tons of support equipment and 3,300 people to help in relief efforts.

Branch's group - which consists of 12 ships deployed to Haiti, including the Carl Vinson Strike Group ships, the USS Nassau (LHA 4) and USS Bataan (LHD 5) Amphibious Ready Groups and the hospital ship USNS Comfort (T-AH 20) - is expecting a lengthy deployment.

In another bloggers roundtable on Saturday January 24th, which I also missed, Capt. Bruce H. Lindsey, commanding officer, USS Carl Vinson, mentioned something that was covered in this DoD press release.

“We are probably doing 180 to 240 landings a day off of this ship,” he said. “The sailors on the flight deck and in maintenance are doing the hard work, making sure they are getting into the country.”

One of the main things the ship transports is medical supplies. Another is water -- the ship has transported more than 30,000 gallons of water. A group of sailors on his ship also created a water tree, where they took piping and created spigots, and use the supply of water from the ship to fill containers with water for those in need in Haiti.

Lindsey said sailors volunteered their time to do build the water tree and fill 5 gallon jugs with water by hand. Because of their volunteer efforts each helicopter that leaves the ship has 32 of these jugs on flight.

Noteworthy, the "180 landings" number jives with the other article, but something about this water math doesn't work. If each flight leaves with 32 5-gallon jugs, then each flight takes 160 gallons for delivery. If the aircraft carrier is supporting 145 mission flights a day from the ship, the implication is ~23,000 gallons are being delivered per day.

But the Captain also said the ship has transported only around 30,000 gallons of water, so the implication would appear inaccurate. Further making the point is how the Navy has made it publicly clear how the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) is capable of producing 100,000 gallons per day, but has not said exactly how much potable water the carrier is actually producing and delivering per day. If 100,000 gallons of water isn't being delivered, making the point it can be produced is pointless. Based on the details in the bloggers roundtable and in the Navy News Service reporting, something doesn't add up.

In the interview Capt. Lindsey says "we have passed almost 20,000 gallons to the Haitian people" with 5 gallon jugs using the water system on Carl Vinson. Well, by my math that is 4,000 gallons per day, at best. If each flight leaves with 32 5-gallon jugs, then each flight takes 160 gallons for delivery - but for 4,000 gallons that math would mean there are only 25 flights carrying water per day (out of 19 helicopters). What?

If it is only 30,000 gallons as of January 24th, and the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) arrived on January 15th, that is only an average of 3,333 gallons per day. It would also suggest that as of today, January 29, the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) is yet to deliver even 50,000 gallons of potable water to Haiti despite being on station for 2 weeks, and despite the capability to produce 100,000 gallons per day in support of HA/DR.

CS-21 elevated HA/DR to a core strategic mission for the Navy, but something went wrong. The contribution of the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) has clearly been with the 19 helicopters, in other words, aviation and mobility support which has no doubt been vital to the effort. With that said, the HA/DR material contribution of the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) is hardly sufficient in any way, in fact Haiti has exposed a major capability gap in the Navy's HA/DR material delivery of water. It also highlights the total coordination failure of SOUTHCOM.

If the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) can produce at least 100,000 gallons of potable water per day, why did the Red Cross charter 43 flights to deliver 660,000 gallons of bottled water at a time when medical supplies were in enormous demand, and the aircraft carrier off the coast could have produced more than twice that amount over the same period of time? How many amputations occurred because of this blunder of coordination? How many people died?

The aircraft carrier has delivered a little bit of food, a little bit of medicine, but no heavy equipment and no shelter - it arrived on scene without excess of that stuff on ship. The USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) has managed an average daily delivery of only around ~3,333 gallons, which is nothing when in support of 1,000,000 - 2,0000,000 in need. If we assume the need is 1 quart per day per person, the requirement is for 250,000 to 500,000 gallons per day to support the water needs of the people. Do the math - 3,333 gal/250,000 gal = ~1.3% of the gallons necessary to meet the requirement is being delivered, despite a stated capacity of the ship to produce the water requirement for ~400,000 people with 100,000 gallon production capacity.

Keep in mind, delivering an average of 3,333 gallons includes the bonus of having extra helicopters on the ship.

One clear lesson early in the Haiti operation to me is that the capacity of a US nuclear aircraft carrier is sufficient to meet water requirements in support of large HA/DR, but the capability of a US nuclear aircraft carrier to meet the requirement, even with a surge of helicopters, is no where close to sufficient. If the potable water can be produced, but not delivered, it is not a capability - it is a capacity. There is clearly an enormous systems gap suggesting something is needed to turn capacity into capability.

Another problem is the inability of SOUTHCOM to coordinate the use of the aircraft carrier for water production. There are probably legitimate challenges and reasons, but they do need to be examined closely. Based on the numbers provided in the blogger roundtable interviews, SOUTHCOM's support of water production by the aircraft carrier was only able to deliver 1.3% of total potential water production capacity. If those numbers hold up, I think that would be by definition "spectacular failure" in the context of a disaster where the official Haitian government January 28 numbers are 112,392 dead and 196,501 people injured.

The whole group of 12 ships has only delivered 87,000 gallons of water per Admiral Branch's comment on January 27th. The Bataan ARG arrived on January 19th, and the Nassau ARG arrived on January 23rd. The USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) has an excess water production of 100,000 gallons per day, meaning that at maximum efficiency the full capability would have delivered 1.4 million gallons potable water to date. The USS Bataan (LHD 5) and USS Nassau (LHA 4) each produce 200,000 gallons potable water per day. The USS Mesa Verde (LPD 19) produces 96,000 gallons of potable water per day. The USS Fort McHenry (LSD 43), USS Gunston Hall (LSD 44), USS Carter Hall (LSD 50), and USS Ashland (LSD 48) all produce 63,000 gallons of potable water per day each. Just those ships are capable of producing 848,000 gallons per day potable water - enough water to meet the needs of everyone in Port-au-Prince every day.

Do the math based on the number of days each ship has been on station. At maximum efficiency the US Navy ships off Port-au-Prince could have produced 5,589,000 gallons of potable water to date, and instead has delivered 87,000 gallons potable water. That means in water production through the first two weeks, if these numbers are accurate, the Navy has been delivering 1.5% of maximum capacity for potable water production.

The need for water has been met after two weeks, at least according to this Bloomberg report. This is almost certainly due to the water production capacity now on the ground in Haiti. The same report goes on to note all the needs that haven't been met. Unless the numbers provided by Captain Lindsey and RDML Branch are wrong (and they could be as there are no official numbers anywhere else - the information problem discussed above), SOUTHCOMs management of water logistics for Haiti to date would appear to represent a tremendous military blunder, at best.

It leads to several questions. Has the US Navy been capable of supporting the delivery of more potable water produced from ships than was done the first two weeks? Has SOUTHCOM used naval forces effectively in HA/DR? Does the Navy have a major gap between potable water production on ships (like CVNs, LHAs, LHDs, and LPDs) and potable water delivery from ships?

Is the US Navy organized properly to respond to major natural disasters? Look, if the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) has indeed only delivered ~3,333 gallons of water per day average, there is a serious gap between capacity and capability that needs to be addressed. 100,000 gallons of water will weigh about 420 tons plus the container weight. Here is a question sure to drive some crazy..., is there a future mission module solution here? Offload the water to LCS/JHSVs from CVNs and have those vessels run around supporting delivery? If the Navy is going to elevate HA/DR to a core mission of strategy, this is a legitimate discussion.

This water logistics situation looks like a SOUTHCOM fiasco. I'm tempted to call this runway centric Air Force myopic bullshit approach to Haiti over the last two weeks a 1st class leadership fuckup, but it remains only a working theory until they put out the official numbers. SOUTHCOM needs to reveal the data that tells the story why water has been flooding in on the vital US flights while the massive Navy water production capacity was left virtually idle in port. A lot of people died because water was flown in instead of medicine. You think CNN is focused on Haiti now, just wait until Anderson Cooper figures out who is to blame for his 10pm complaints over the last two weeks.

The Canadians Kick Ass

When Haiti first happened I raised the question who would play the role of Indian during the Tsunami. The answer is Canada. If the numbers cited above are accurate, there is evidence the US Navy has been less than efficient with their Navy vessels supporting operations in Haiti. The same cannot be said about Canada.

Not sure if you heard, but on the same night George Clooney raised $61 million for Haiti, one of two telethons took place in Canada, and between the two telethons Canadians have raised $20 million in donations for Haiti - which the government has pledged to match.

Canada currently has 1,400 soldiers, sailors, and air crew on the ground or off the coast, a number expected to reach 2,000 by Sunday. Canada has two ships, HMCS Halifax (FFH 330) and HMCS Athabaskan (DDH 282), one Sea King, six Griffon helicopters, one C-17, one C-130, hundreds of vehicles, and a military field hospital operating in support of Haiti (source). Most of their work has been centered around the city of Jacmel, a town of 40,000 south of the earthquake epicenter that was devastated. There is an airport there, and it has been opened. Because the radar equipment was completely destroyed, HMCS Halifax (FFH 330) is running air traffic control from sea.

HMCS Athabaskan (DDH 282) had been operating in Léogâne where the Canadians set up a military field hospital. Léogâne is where the 22nd MEU has now set up operations. HMCS Athabaskan (DDH 282) left Léogâne on Wednesday for Jamaica to pick up supplies, fuel, and the 165 Canadian soldiers from the Royal 22nd Regiment, known as the Van Doos.

When you look at how much the Canadians have been able to do with just two ships, it is quite remarkable and a reminder that alternative force structures bring a lot of flexibility to operations. The Canadians are trying to link a road (that remains blocked) from Léogâne to Jacmel. The ports in both cities are closed, and without that road the people live off aid the Canadians provide and the support of airfields like the one the Canadians opened in Jacmel.

This is one of the Canadian Navy's finest hours. I noticed a poll where 66% of the Canadian people believe the government response to Haiti has been "Just Right." All that poll tells me is 34% of the Canadian people don't know excellence when they see it.

HA/DR Littoral Ink Spots?

The US Fleet Forces Command blog has an interesting post up discussing Haiti that includes an email from Captain Dominic DeScisciolo of the USS Bunker Hill (CG 52). It is a must read, as again it highlights how much good a ship can do. Well, not any ship, but a well resourced ship.

Peacetime challenges and activities require manpower, and it is absolutely clear when reading Captain Dominic DeScisciolo's email that he is maximizing the capability of his ship in this mission. I'm not saying others aren't, but I am saying that as the Coast Guard has proved, a ship with qualified, motivated sailors can do a heck of a lot if resourced well enough to accomplish the mission. A cruiser is obviously resourced well enough with manpower to do exactly that. A Famous class cutter, with 100 personnel, is also resourced well enough to go ashore and make a difference. Something to think about.

Challenges Ahead

The biggest challenge ahead is the increasing potential for rain, which can bring with it all kinds of medical challenges and potential epidemics. There are reports of suspected cases of measles in some parts of the earthquake area. More than 40% of the population has never had a measles vaccination. Malaria and other diseases are also potential problems down the road, none of which is good for a country moving into tent cities.

Despite some reported security problems, the security situation in Haiti remains very good. There are reports of UN and US Marine patrols at night in several places of the earthquake zone. Security is a serious issue that cannot be taken lightly though. The need for food is so high for so many that without security, distribution remains impossible.

The response by the United States is something I believe every American can be proud of. It has not been perfect, it never is, but we also do not see disasters of this scale and scope very often. The Navy will learn from this, of that I have no doubt. I feel nothing but a great sense of pride in seeing America respond to Haiti, and feel well represented by the Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, and Marines on the ground in Haiti doing the work in representation of folks like me.

Maritime Observations of Operation United Response

Tuesday afternoon will mark the one week anniversary of the earthquake in Haiti. Several maritime operations are underway worth observing.

Maj. Gen. Cornell A. Wilson repeatedly called the MEU arriving off Haiti a Sea Base (audio here). That term has been used in so many ways since Seapower 21 that it has become impossible to define, but I do believe his use in this case is accurate based on what is unfolding. It will be interesting to see where the Marines land in Haiti. Based on satellite imagery I suspect they will land southwest of the port near Carrefour, closer to the epicenter of the earthquake and not necessarily near the airport giving the relief operation a distributed feeling. There have been many reports of security problems in Carrefour, which may put the Marines in position to provide security even if the Secretary of Defense suggests security isn't their role.

USNS Grasp (T-ARS 51) arrived and is working in the port with the U.S. Army's 544th Engineer Dive Team, Explosive Ordnance Disposal group 2, the Mobile and Diving Salvage Unit 2, and Underwater Construction Team 2 under command of Rear Adm. Samuel Perez, Commander, Task Force (CTF) 42. Worth noting from the article:

Grasp and the 544th had been conducting Navy Diver Southern Partnership Station 2010 (ND SPS 10) off the coast of Belize prior to the earthquake in Haiti. Once diverted, the ship made a brief stop in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba to refuel and collect food and supplies for humanitarian aid and disaster relief prior to their arrival in Port-au-Prince.

I think that is noteworthy because USS Gunston Hall (LSD 44) has also arrived in Haiti, but had previously been planning on deploying last Friday in support of African Partnership Station (APS) East. We have lost sustained presence in the 4th Fleet and 6th Fleet by diverting units previously tasked as Partnership Stations. Is this an example where Partnership Station deployments are working as designed - able to quickly respond to emerging crisis, or a flaw in the system - presence is lost because assets are needed elsewhere?

I wonder if USS Gunston Hall (LSD 44) would have been sent to Haiti if LPD-17 or LPD-21 were available? These would appear to be issues for Congress.

Worth noting the Nassau ARG deployed Monday with USS Nassau (LHA 4), USS Mesa Verde (LPD 19), and USS Ashland (LSD 48). The ARG has long been scheduled to deploy to the 5th and 6th Fleet AOR, but can always be tasked to go anywhere. It is worth noting the deployment for a different reason though, because when looking at the amphibious ships on the East Coast, the absence of the San Antonio class LPDs raises questions.

USS Whidbey Island is in dry dock. USS Ponce (LPD 15) and USS Oak Hill (LSD 51) returned with the USS Bataan and the 22 MEU deployment in December 2009, and may be in maintenance availability already. In other words, all the Marines have is the USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7), USS Kearsarge (LHD 3) and USS Wasp (LHD 1) in reserve after the USS Nassau (LHA 4) and 24 MEU deploy, and it is unlikely all three LHDs are actually available.

Big deck amphibious ships are flexible and extraordinarily useful, but they are so expensive that the Marines simply can't field enough of them. I would argue that the 22 MEU response to Haiti is an excellent example of the kind of strategic speed that makes amphibious ships important, but the emphasis of amphibious ships in the Marine Corps existing maritime force structure doesn't give the Marines a response capability with tactical speed. If Marines are the countries 9/11 force - tactical speed does matter.

The future of the Marine Corps may become a big debate in 2010, and I for one hope they are looking beyond Amphibious ships and the EFV while not being forced to settle for JHSVs and Littoral Combat Ships. I think the Marines represent a very important debate that is a great deal more complicated than specific equipment discussions, and it will come over the next 30 days. I intend to participate in that debate from the cheap seats.

As the Coast Guard has demonstrated over the last 7 days, a platoon of Marines could potentially do a hell of a lot of good on a smaller vessel, and if smaller vessels were organized in squadrons one would have the necessary intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and communications to effectively deploy a Marine Rifle Company for distributed ops in littorals very much in line with the company level operations being done in Afghanistan. I think that article was one of the most important Marine Corps articles of 2009, a must read, and will be linked many times from this blog in the future.

As of Tuesday morning there will be at least 10 US Navy ships around Haiti including USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), USS Higgins (DDG 76), USS Normandy (CG 60), USS Underwood (FFG 36), USS Bataan (LHD 5), USS Fort McHenry (LSD 43), USS Gunston Hall (LSD 44), USS Carter Hall (LSD 50) USNS Grasp (T-ARS 51), and USNS Big Horn (T-AO-198). Additionally 5 Coast Guard cutters including USCGC Oak (WLB 211), USCGC Forward (WMEC-911), USCGC Tahoma (WMEC 908), USCGC Mohawk (WMEC-913), and USCGC Valiant (WMEC 621) are offshore of Haiti. Combined there will be at least 48 helicopters supporting the operation as of Tuesday morning, almost all (and maybe all) of which are provided by the maritime services.

Other ships expected to arrive this week include USS Bunker Hill (CG 52), USNS Henson (T-AGS 63), USNS Sumner (T-AGS 61), USNS Savagawea (T-AKE 2), and USNS 1st LT Jack Lummus (T-AK 3011).

The Army appears to be preparing to build a port, and has deployed several ships that carry some of their maritime equipment. gCaptain has a must read on MARAD assets being deployed to Haiti.

The U.S. Maritime Administration announced Monday that MV Gopher State, MV Cornhusker State and SS Cape May will join OPDS Petersburg from California and M/V Huakai from Hawaii.

“Sending these ships will help those on the front line of this effort save as many lives in Haiti as possible,” Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood said. “These ships will add crucial capabilities by supporting operations to move large volumes of people and cargo.”

EagleOne has been talking about Joint Over the Sea Logistics here and here over the last few days, and there is nothing left for me to add regarding expectations of this capability beyond his comments. By the way, M/V Huakai is not in Hawaii, both of the former Hawaiian superferry's are in Norfolk. It's a shame the Navy didn't paint them yet, because that color scheme is ugly.

Both links at EagleOne are worth a read for those of you who want to see how the sea logistics will come together both short and long term, likely beginning by the end of next weekend. It takes a lot of time to put some of this together though, so getting the massive equipment to Haiti is only the first step. People may not like it, but we are one week away from being able to provide a some throughput from sea, but perhaps a month away from being able to truly provide major logistics support on a large scale from sea - assuming everything goes according to plan. The Army project in particular is very expensive and such an operation could cost nearly $40 million or more if the equipment is left behind for a long period of time to support relief in Haiti.

When it is all done, it will be incredible to see, but the type of massive sea based engineering that is being sent to Haiti doesn't come together quickly.

I still have not seen security problems reported in the news that have me concerned... yet, and the weather forecast looks good with no major storms over the rest of the week. I am still very cautiously optimistic about the ability of maritime forces to resolve the logistics issues in Haiti to allow the relief in, but it is still very early in the crisis and the throughput of relief supplies will not significantly increase for several more days.

An air drop of relief supplies, for example, is very dangerous and represents a sign that things are getting desperate on the ground. We have already seen Navy helicopters throw relief supplies out the window to Haitians scrambling underneath. That is another sign of the serious issues in distribution, and immense challenges that must be addressed this week.

The second week will be just as difficult as the first week.

All Things Maritime And Haiti

There are so many things to cover. I have not seen much leadership in terms of setting expectations or an explanation from leadership in the State Department explaining how this major operation will unfold. Plenty of information released today in press conferences, but very little stage setting from what I saw.

A few notes. The Red Cross was reported to be out of medicine on Wednesday. UN Dispatch has two interesting items. First:

On a conference call with Medicines sans Frontiere moments ago, a representative in Haiti said that all of the hospitals to which it would normally refer patients have either collapsed or are otherwise unusable. All MSF can do at the moment is administer first aid. There are no "referral" options for secondary care beyond first aid, but MSF is exploring options to deploy a "floating hospital" to Haiti.

That report goes on to highlight reasons why the UN mission to Haiti may have been compromised by the overwhelming damage, at least for the time being. As an organization it is currently self involved with reestablishment, unable to engage the surrounding issues.

In a later report, UN Dispatch discusses the health care issues facing the population. While reading it I thought back to the TB outbreak on Comfort last year.

Want to see useful open source technology in action? Check these guys out. Google has a cool little tech operation for Haiti from their Crisis Response Team (yes they actually have one). Works with Google Maps.

The Coast Guard

The Coast Guard always arrives first when disaster strikes near the US. What an amazing organization, and when we consider it is smaller than the NYPD, I would argue we get more per dollar as a nation out of the Coast Guard than any other entity in government. This is a great report of ongoing Coast Guard activities by Lt. Cmdr Chris O'Neil. The 270 ft Coast Guard Cutter Forward arrived just after dawn and did an assessment of the Port Au Prince port.

Coast Guard personnel observed multiple oil and fuel spills as well as possible sewage spills in the area of the port, about one to one and a half miles from the coast. They also reported seeing multiple small fires along the shoreline and significant damage to or destruction of infrastructure at the port.

Damage to port infrastructure is reported to include the port's container crane and other cargo cranes. Some of the cranes are reported to be completely submerged and others appear damaged but the extent of the damage cannot yet be fully determined.

The article also discusses two Jayhawk sorties for medical evacuations on Wednesday and the work conducted by five different C-130s. How many C-130s does the Coast Guard have again? The Coast Guard Cutter Mohawk arrived off Haiti Wednesday afternoon, and the Coast Guard Cutters Tahoma and Valiant will be in the area by Thursday. The Tahoma is loaded with relief supplies for earthquake survivors, but one of the Cutters is expected to stay at Guantanamo Bay providing a 3 in Haiti / 1 in Guantanamo Bay arrangement. You can see video of the C-130 flyover here, and some additional photos here. I very highly encourage folks to view this 7 minute video of Admiral Thad Allen on the situation, it is excellent.

• The Coast Guard Cutter Valiant is a 210-foot medium endurance cutter homeported in Miami, Fla.
• The Coast Guard Cutter Mohawk, a 270-foot medium endurance cutter, is homeported in Key West, Fla.
• The Coast Guard Cutter Tahoma is a 270-foot medium endurance cutter homeported in Portsmouth, N.H.
• The Coast Guard Cutter Forward, a 270-foot medium endurance cutter, is homeported in Portsmouth, Va.

The Navy and Marine Corps

It takes longer for the Navy and Marines to get anywhere than it does for a service like the Air Force, or in this case the Coast Guard. While the Air Force opens up the airport and the Coast Guard inspects the port, the Navy will not show up until Thursday. The time of arrival for the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) is unclear, but it doesn't matter. The helicopters will arrive long before the ship does, and if there are enough helicopters moving over the city the people will notice. The pictures on Navy.mil show HS-7 and HSL-11 deploying to USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70). There have been several indications by Navy information personnel to expect updates to the carriers Twitter and Facebook pages.

I want to make a brief point here. There have been 3 Admirals on C-SPAN in the last 6 months, and only once was it on an issue related to the sea - that was the BMD change. Every other time you see an Admiral on C-SPAN it is Mullen or the topic is prisoners at Guantanamo Bay. The media is focused on Haiti, and the symbol of American power is going to be the largest thing everyone can see - USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70). Be visible, take pictures from the air that include the carrier, and turn USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) into a symbol of hope. The Navy doesn't have a single Admiral actually in a Navy post today (which means Stavridis and Mullen don't count) who is recognizable by the average American, but every American knows what a Nimitz class aircraft carrier looks like - as does the rest of the world. Showcase the ship, because it is a symbol and symbolism matters in soft power. The whole world is watching.

Also expected to arrive tomorrow is USS Higgins (DDG 76), which is on the home stretch of her deployment. Originally deploying as part of the Nimitz CSG from the Pacific, USS Higgins (DDG 76) spent most of her time in the Med operating as the BMD ship for 6th Fleet. According to the Navy USS Higgins (DDG 76) will provide afloat logistical services for Coast Guard helicopters. I suspect that given the length of her deployment to date, her participation in the relief effort will be brief but necessary until other assets arrive.

USS Bataan (LHD 5), USS Fort McHenry (LSD 43), and USS Carter Hall (LSD 50) are coming with the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU 22). USS Normandy (CG 60), USS Underwood (FFG 36) and USS John L. Hall (FFG 32) will also deploy. Navy News has created a Twitter group for those who want to follow all the government activities. I suggest adding it to RSS.

As most of us know, but no one outside the maritime community appears aware, the USNS Comfort (T-AH-20) will take 5 days to get underway. The hospital ships are on 5 days readiness, and that actually means it takes 5 days from the moment the ship is put on notice before she can sail. Hospital ships are not rapid response assets. However, I think this is important for us to note.

Hospitals are said to have been devastated and overwhelmed by the injured. One clinic director sent out an e-mail plea after the quake: "Port-au-Prince is devastated, lot of deaths. SOS. SOS."

Joseph said Haiti was most in need of a hospital ship stationed in Haitian waters, as well as supplies to help keep residents safe and warm.

Joseph is Ambassador Raymond Joseph, his appeal for a hospital ship was the first public government request made to the US in his AM press conference on Wednesday morning, as recorded in the time line at the AlJazeera Blog. That is best evidence regarding the influence of Naval Medical Diplomacy you will ever find, better than any population polling data ever produced. When talking hospital ships, can you say strategic asset?

Considerations

Half the Haitian coast guard personnel stationed at the port were killed by the earthquake.

There is a legitimate National Security Risk Assessment that has yet to be discussed anywhere in the media, at least that I have seen. The annual immigration season from Haiti to Florida by sea usually begins in February every year. If it has historically been easy for Haitians to choose the risks of sea immigration when they have a home and family, how much easier is it for a Haitian to risk the dangerous journey when their home is destroyed or family is dead? This is a critical point, because the US is in big trouble if 100,000 people, or potentially a lot more, attempt a massive migration at sea following this catastrophe. The Obama administration is going to have to spend money - potentially many billion dollars - to keep three million homeless people in Haiti. This a serious problem that will directly impact you and me unless you are somehow stupid enough to believe the US is ready to absorb the cost of a mass immigration of a population with a high illiteracy rate at the same time the government intends to pass National Health Care to protect the poorest in our country.

Do the math. How many soldiers does your COIN manual say it takes to control a population of 3 million homeless, hungry people? Haiti has no military, and the Haitian National Police numbers 8500 - for the entire country. Even if we count the 2nd Brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division and 2 Marine battalions, we come up well short of what will be necessary based on the doctrine for population security adopted by our lessons learned in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The US will lead in Haiti, even ahead of the now destroyed Haitian government and until we decide it is time for the UN to step in. In the 2004 Tsumani, the US had this amazing partner that did a tremendous job - India. Who will play the role of India in Haiti? It matters a lot if Haiti is as bad as some have estimated, because this has the potential of being the largest military effort in the western hemisphere in at least a century.

The US Air Force - Haiti Edition

The US Air Force blogging community is tiny, so I thought I'd add something I've noticed with the USAF regarding Haiti. I am not nor will ever attempt to be an expert in the US Air Force, hell I'm fairly weak at naval aviation which I actually do study. I do however know a lot about the US Air Force budget, which only slightly relates to this discussion.

But first, something else. This is a much bigger deal than the almost non-existent reporting on US television gave it. This is an important political statement by the EU, exactly the type of political support necessary to meet the enormous challenges ahead in Haiti.

The European Union on Monday played down suggestions of a rift with the US over the distribution of emergency humanitarian aid in Haiti, devastated last week by an earthquake that may have killed more than 100,000 people.

EU leaders expressed gratitude to the US for keeping open the airport in Port-au-Prince, Haiti’s capital, and said they had received no complaints from non-governmental organisations about the conditions under which aid is reaching Haitians.

The move came as the World Food Programme announced a major escalation of relief aid distribution on the half-island nation, with the giving out of 180,000 ration packs on Monday.

The UN’s biggest relief agency aims to distribute 10m ready-to-eat meals to earthquake survivors in the capital, Port-au-Prince, and elsewhere. Within a month, the goal is to reach 2m people.

There had previously been some complaining by French Secretary of State for Cooperation Alain Joyandet about the job being done by the US at the airport, but apparently the French minister learned how to do the backstroke on Monday. I won't speculate who made the phone call and what was said, but I bet it was an interesting phone call nonetheless.

What was apparently lost on some observers thousands of miles from Haiti is the work being done by USAF Col. Buck Elton and Special Operations Group ONE. Twenty-four hours after a city of three million had its infrastructure destroyed, the government disappeared, and the UN humanitarian mission was decapitated by the earthquake; USAF Special Operations Group ONE had the airport open for use ready to support the largest humanitarian operation in the history of the Western Hemisphere from nothing more than a single long slab of concrete we call a runway.

People do realize that these USAF SOG 1 guys are basically some military dressed dudes in an open tent with communication gear, a few laptops, and if they are very lucky, a portable potty somewhere within walking distance - sitting out in the grass somewhere near the airport runway coordinating air traffic inbound from the entire world, right? Sounds like no big deal from thousands of miles away I guess...

They really are doing an amazing job - from Reuters.

Colonel Buck Elton, commander of the U.S. military directing flights at Haiti's airport, said there had been 600 take-offs and landings since he took over the one-runway airport's traffic on Wednesday, though 50 flights had been diverted...

Elton said the flow of air traffic was improving, with only 3 of 67 incoming flights being rerouted on Saturday, and only two flights diverted on Sunday.

The airport apron can only handle one wide-bodied plane and five narrow-bodied planes at a time, plus other aircraft that can be parked on the grass.

There is an Air Force issue to watch for. MSNBC reported on TV Monday that the rest of the 82 Airborne Division will have to be brought in on chartered commercial airlines, because there are not enough heavy lift aircraft to support the requirement. I have not seen a print report of this yet, but Andrea Mitchell said it on her show Monday.

The report suggested not all the equipment would be able to be brought in to Haiti immediately with the 82nd Airborne, and would come later. If that is true, then I suggest perhaps Congress should be exonerated for pushing for more C-17s and C-130s on top of the President budget requests over the last few years, and this should serve as a reminder that Secretary of Defense Gates has been wrong to push for the cancellation of those programs. The C-130 has been criticized over the last few years, but when I look on TV and see the runways, I see Coast Guard and Air Force C-130s basically carrying this US effort in Haiti.

To see more about US Air Force activities in Haiti, you can follow on the official US Air Force blog.

Communicating a Deployment

Strategic Communications: All of the cells considered effective strategic communications - defined as the sum of all actions and messages (intentional and unintentional) influencing target audiences - as an integral part of any successful U.S. strategy. An important corollary was that the Navy had to develop and disseminate coordinated and consistent strategic communications. Thus, to be successful, the Navy must establish the ability to design and implement a standardized process at the Navy component commander level for effectively coordinating maritime actions and messages so as to convey consistent U.S. government purposes and objectives.

Findings from the executive summary Global 08, Title X Wargame, "Implimenting the Maritime Strategy," August 4-8, 2008

For whatever reason, following Global 08 at the Naval War College, this lesson from the wargame fell through the cracks and never went anywhere - at least no where I can find today. The intent was to develop information as an extension of naval activity and link that activity to a public diplomacy effort. More than 2 years later the Navy information model is still about communicating how and what the Navy does, and it still lacks the declaration of why and therefore is not 'strategic' at all.

Building on some thoughts from yesterday regarding how to add strategic communication into Navy News Service coverage of a major deployment, we have a perfect example of how to do it right. It is quite brilliant actually, and was written before my post went online suggesting this is being done...

By the Coast Guard:

Boston-based cutter deploys to haiti for the holidays

The Coast Guard Cutter Escanaba, home ported in Boston, deployed south to conduct operations near Haiti Nov. 30, 2010.

The crew of the Escanaba will augment Coast Guard forces currently deployed in the region by bring its command, control and communications capability, as well as a patrolling resource.

Windward Pass operations, which include counterdrug and illegal migrant interdictions off the coast of Haiti, focus primarily on deterrence and interdiction of illicit traffickers. The Coast Guard's strength in search and rescue is often exercised during illegal migrant interdictions. Migrant smugglers often force their human cargo to live in cramped, unsanitary spaces, well beyond the safe loading capacity of the smuggling vessel.

"This deployment will be a challenging blend that reflects the military, multi-mission and maritime nature that has characterized the Coast Guard since its inception", said Cmdr. Ed Westfall, commanding officer of the Escanaba. "Protecting persons from the perils of the sea is a fundamental responsibility shared by all mariners, military and civilian. Protecting our nation from illegal acts on the water is rooted in the foundations of our service and highlights our cooperative and complementary relationship with our sister agencies within the Department (of Homeland Security). The unfortunate reality is that illicit traffickers, whether they be moving drugs, weapons, or, in this case, people, will stop at nothing to profit from the sometimes desperate misfortune of others. The crowded living conditions aboard vessels found smuggling persons from Haiti are often beyond the pale. Our forward presence offshore of that nation is intended to deter these illegal voyages before they begin and, if necessary, stop them before there is injury or loss of life."

This deployment does mean Escanaba's crew will be away from their families and friends for the holidays.

"Of course it is tough being away, especially during this time of year, but being able to counter the threat from ruthless smugglers and to be prepared to support humanitarian operations off Haiti is truly rewarding," said Petty Officer Scarberry, a crewman aboard the Escanaba.

The Escanaba is prepared to execute any of the Coast Guard's eleven statutory missions, should the Escanaba be called upon to do so. This readiness has been evidenced by numerous Coast Guard units in 2010, as the deployed cutters Forward, Mohawk, Tahoma, and Valiant were the first US assets on-scene in the initial hours after the devastating January earthquake as well as the cutter Forward's preparatory response when Hurricane Tomas impacted Haiti in November.

Escanaba is the seventh of 13 Famous Class medium endurance cutters in the United States Coast Guard's inventory. Escanaba has patrolled from the waters off New England enforcing federal and international fishing regulations to deep in the Caribbean on drug and migrant interdiction patrols.

I love this press release. It covers every single point of strategic communication discussed yesterday, and comes together perfectly in context with the balance of people, material, readiness, and mission. It touches multiple audiences while sharing a narrative that relates to every audience. Cmdr. Ed Westfall is the CO_WHO_UNDERSTANDS_STRATCOMM by communicating strength, purpose, and intent.

Note how Petty Officer Scarberry's contribution makes him a STRATCOM_SAILOR who gets it, addressing both the hardships of being away from family while touching on the specific operations that will be conducted. He is communicating commitment, capabilities, and readiness.

Cmdr. Ed Westfall was on Midrats back on October 3, 2024. It might be the best episode of Midrats in the archive, and if you have listened to that episode and then read this press release, it will be difficult to miss how this Coast Guard press release is a reflection of USCGC Escanaba (WMEC 907), crew, and CO. Every ship has a unique personality, and anytime a news article writes about a ship that personality should be reflected.

The differences between this press release and the NNS press release yesterday from the Navy regarding the Carl Vinson deployment are striking. The Navy talked routine schedules and the generic business of the Navy, while the Coast Guard is talking about the readiness of the ship and crew, and the business of the ship and crew.

The Carl Vinson deployment release was actually one of the better releases about the Navy. For example, what is the emotion and message being sent with this NNS release of today's deployment of the USS Paul Hamilton (DDG 60)?

PEARL HARBOR (NNS) -- Families and friends said goodbye as the Arleigh Burke class guided-missile destroyer USS Paul Hamilton (DDG 60) departed from Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam on Nov. 30 for an independent deployment to the Middle East and Western Pacific.

"We should be okay," said Naomi Pawelczyk, a spouse of one of the Sailors aboard the ship who was at the pier with her two-year-old son as the ship sailed away. "I'm just worried about my husband. We will continue to stay in contact with each other. I know he's going to be worried about our son. I'm sure he is going to have a hard time being apart from him. We will wait for his safe return."

Georgia Pahl, another spouse at the pier, said that it was her first time seeing her husband deploying aboard Paul Hamilton.

"I'm going to hold on to positive thoughts and hope that they'll be back soon," said Pahl. "We're newly-wed. It's tough, but we have so much to look forward to when he comes back."

Commanded by Cmdr. Edward J. Eder, Paul Hamilton has a crew of about 30 officers and 223 enlisted Sailors. Paul Hamilton is deploying under the Middle Pacific Surface Combatant (MPSC) deployment concept, in which Hawaii-based ships deploy in support of operations in the Fifth and Seventh Fleet operating areas.

Guided-missile destroyers are multi-mission surface combatants, capable of Anti-Air Warfare (AAW), Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW), and Anti-Surface Warfare (ASUW) missions.

First, someone needs to check the latest chatter on the jihad forums, because when I looked yesterday the Navy was being discussed again. You PAOs need to review this and this, and remember we are at war.

Second, the Navy News Service folks should never, ever write about a deployment of any major warship we are trying to buy for over $2 billion on Capitol Hill with tissue throwing nonsense like this article. The communication of this article suggests the Navy is about tearful goodbyes when leaving port and operational concepts like MPSC. A US taxpayer, many of whom have never been on the ocean, might ask why a ship isn't doing something important enough to mention, then follow that thought with a question why we even need the ship at all?

The sin here is that the article says what a ship like Paul Hamilton can do, but doesn't tell anyone what USS Paul Hamilton (DDG 60) will be doing. Every ship is unique, and the personality of the leadership, crew, and ship should be reflected in every article. Two hundred and fifty three of the Navy's best men and women have been working hard for months preparing for this deployment. USS Paul Hamilton (DDG 60) is one of the US Navy's prized Ballistic Missile Defense Arleigh Burke Destroyers, and that ship and crew is about to go play goalkeeper on the front lawns of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Kim Jong-il. USS Paul Hamilton (DDG 60) may, on this deployment, be engaged directly with Al Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula - and Navy News Service is interviewing the wives by full name for comment.

The nation is currently one miscalculation by the ever so stable Kim Jong-il from being engaged in a major conventional war with a potential nuclear power where casualties to civilians in Seoul alone could run 50,000+ in the first day alone. The Navy has deployed 5 of the most advanced naval vessels in the world in the Pacific this week, nearly 7000 sailors who have been training for months only to deploy during very high tensions in their AOR. Meanwhile, Navy News Service finds itself unable to clearly articulate even a basic strategic message to Asia like... STRENGTH, giving us 5 boatloads of Bambi instead.

Can I request a Coast Guard PAO to PACOM please? I'll take someone from First District Public Affairs if they are available.