Monday, September 17, 2024

Russian Early Warning Satellite Network -> Broken

The Milcom Monitoring Blog has a very interesting story about the degraded Russian Early Warning Satellite network. The editors note introduces the story:

This is in my opinion is a serious military situation. I would say that the Russian satellite based EW network is no longer operational and its capability is the most degraded I have ever seen in recent memory. They can only view the US mainland for early warning of a land based ballistic attack for six hours day (via Cosmos 2414). They have no early warning capability of a sea-based missile launch or a missile launch from any other part of the world. This is a scary situation now that the Strategic Forces is nearly blind to a missile attack. The orbital graphic below tells the tale of the tape.
The background of the post goes into good detail regarding the degradation of the network. Another excellent edition guys, keep up the good work.

Sunday, September 16, 2024

Fire on Cruiser in Drydock

First reported as an explosion, the fire on the USS Leyte Gulf (CG 55) appears less serious. These types of industrial accidents happen, and honestly it is a credit to quality of American shipyard workers it doesn't happen more often.

Five shipyard workers were injured, some burned, on Saturday when fumes "flashed" into a small fire aboard the guided missile cruiser Leyte Gulf.

"There's nothing to believe it's suspicious," said Battalion Chief Bruce Evans, a spokesman for Norfolk Fire-Rescue. "It was an industrial accident."

The incident, at 9:29 a.m., came as the ship is undergoing modernization. It is docked at BAE Systems Norfolk Ship Repair, in the 700 block of Berkley Ave.

"It was a fairly small incident," Evans said, although it initially drew national attention as news networks reported that there had been "an explosion" aboard the warship.

"No way does this appear linked to any type of terrorist activities," Evans said.

He said crews, working in a berthing area two decks below the main deck, were using a lacquer thinner to strip floors.

Fumes from the cleaning materials built up and ignited, investigators from the shipyard and the fire department determined, Evans said Saturday night.

He said there really wasn't a "big boom" of an explosion. Rather, there was a loud noise - more like a "woomph" - when the fumes ignited.

Exactly what sparked the fumes could not be determined, however, Evans said.

They may not know what ignited the fire yet, but they will find the cause. The USS Leyte Gulf (CG 55) returned from its last deployment on November 18, 2024 with the USS Enterprise Strike Group, but went into a maintenance period and did not deploy with the Enterprise CSG this summer. The extent of the damage remains unknown, but historically we don't learn the extent of the damage in industrial accidents to warships until the investigation is complete and cost of damage is released.

Friday, September 14, 2024

5th Fleet Focus: Order of Battle

Order of Battle in the 5th Fleet Area of Responsibility.

The Enterprise Carrier Strike Group

USS Enterprise (CVN 65)
USS Gettysburg (CG 64)
USS Arleigh Burke (DDG 51)
USS Stout (DDG 55)
USS Forrest Sherman (DDG 98)
USS James E. Williams (DDG 95)
USS Philadelphia (SSN 690)


Bonhomme Richard Expeditionary Strike Group

USS Bonhomme Richard (LHD 6)
USS Denver (LPD 9)
USS Rushmore (LSD 47)
USS Milius (DDG 69)*
USS Chung-Hoon (DDG 93)*
USS Chosin (CG 65)*

*Currently in the South Pacific (Philippines)


Kearsarge Expeditionary Strike Group

USS Kearsarge (LHD 3)
USS Ponce (LPD 15)
USS Gunston Hall (LSD 44)
USS Vicksburg (CG 69)
USS Porter (DDG 78)
USS Carr (FFG 52)
USS Miami (SSN 755)


Task Force 150

FGS Köln (F211)
FS Commandant Blaison (F793)
FS Dupleix (D 641)
PNS Tippu Sultan (D 185)
USS Carter Hall (LSD 50)


In Theater

Ocean 6
HMS Richmond (F 239)
JDS Kirisame (DD 104)
HMAS Anzac (F 150)
USS Scout (MCM 8)
USS Gladiator (MCM 11)
USS Ardent (MCM 12)
USS Dexterous (MCM 13)
HMS Ramsay (M 110)
HMS Blyth (M 111)


Standing NATO Maritime Group 1 In Theater This Week

USS Normandy (CG 60)
USS Bainbridge (DDG 96)
HNLMS Evertsen (F805)
HMCS Toronto (FFH 333)
NRP Alvares Cabral (F331)
HDMS Olfert Fischer (F355)
FGS Spessart (A1442)

Nice Job Chap - Updated

It wasn't long ago Americans knew who their military leaders were. I wonder, how many Americans had actually listened to General Petraeus speak for any length of time prior to this week?

When I got home from work Monday, I turned the channel to CSPAN-3, set up shop with a cold McSorley's ale, and watched the Petraeus/Crocker hearings in the House. When my wife and 12 year old got home, both asked me who the General was. Despite being a very bright and informed 12 year old, and my wife who is an Attorney for one of the largest international Law Firms in the US, neither had seen General Petraeus before, but both were impressed afterwards.

My wife and daughter represent the relationship between the majority of Americans and the military leaders fighting the War in Iraq and the Global War on Terror. If you ask someone on the street who Admiral Fallon is, you will probably get a blank stare, yet that person has a better than average chance of identifying who Chris Crocker is.

Chap identifies a slur being tossed around about Admiral Fallon by the anti-war types. I think it is interesting, the anti-war types are applying the stereotype of General Tommy Franks (the last well recognized military leader) to Admiral Fallon (a relative unknown Admiral) claiming at the first meeting between Admiral Fallon and General Petraeus, Fallon labeled Petraeus “an ass-kissing little chicken-sh*t.” General Franks was well known for such 'colorful' comments.

I have never heard Admiral Fallon speak, but I have researched him extensively both for professional reasons but also out of curiosity. In my opinion, he is one of the most thoughtful Admirals in the US Navy today. His approach to China in the Pacific has been praised both inside and outside the Navy, and his approach to leveraging soft power in his command is insightful as to who the man is. He is clearly a thinker, and his reputation is one of thoughtful and patient in approach, while wise in action.

The questionably reported rift between Fallon and Petraeus represents a larger problem to me though. The Moveon.org hit job on Petraeus... well it pissed me off to be honest. How bad is it really? According to my attorney friends, and because I'm married to an attorney I have more than I'd care to admit, had Congress declared war on Iraq, under the law the advertisement would be an act of sedition. In fact, all of them believe they could successfully defend Moveon.org in court because there is no declaration of war from Congress, yet all of them think they would lose defending Moveon.org if their was a Congressional act of war against Iraq.

I'd have given Moveon.org money to print a full page ad in 2004 to flame Rumsfeld (a civilian) and his transformation platform, or any number of Navy Secretaries prior to Winter (also civilians) for their absence at the helm in dealing with US shipbuilding problems, but I have no respect at all for people who assassinate the character of men and women in the armed forces, and to be honest it makes me angry that it would be done in wartime, angry enough that I wrote a check for Giuliani last night solely because he countered this nonsense with his own ad (and I may not even vote for him).

There is a grand canyon sized gap between being critical of job performance (for example I have no limit of criticism for Lieutenant General Sanchez's performance in Iraq) and being critical of someone personally, as if they are measuring the quality of a person like the General, or Admiral.

It is an effective political tactic though, and since Admiral Fallon is General Petraeus's boss, he is a natural target for this deplorable smear campaign. Actually the reason the Moveon.org ad backfired is because America met General Petraeus this week, and realized Moveon.org was wrong. The slur tactic is actually more effective right now for Admiral Fallon, because nobody in America knows who Admiral Fallon is. Like I said in the beginning, it wasn't long ago Americans knew who their military leaders were. In a war 4+ years old, it is incredible that Americans barely know who our military leaders are.

Imagine living in 1943 wondering who this General Eisenhower guy is. Wake up! It is 2007 and Americans have no idea who Admiral William Fallon is, except what "they" tell you.


Update 1
: A couple of posters have rushed to the defense of Porter, the author of the IPS story. I would advise everyone to take a healthy dose of skepticism regarding his reporting. The Washington Post story on the 9th still seems to be the more credible, because this isn't the first time Porter has exploited Fallon with "access to his thinking."

That story, btw, is bogus. What 3rd carrier? The KH or the Lincoln in drydock? The Reagan which covered the Pacific duties for the Stennis? The Atlantic carriers all returning home or in various levels of maintenance. The only Atlantic carrier that could have gone is the Enterprise, which btw, is there now. That story stinks with too many questionably sourced details and flat out fabrications, but it is part of the current discussion with Fallon. Same author too, hmm....

Thursday, September 13, 2024

Littoral Combat Ship: 2 + 2 +3 - 4 = 2 plus 1

When you do the math on the LCS program it all adds up to disaster. Back in April, the Navy cancelled LCS-3 for being over budget. If the current version of the Fy08 defense bill holds, and everyone believes it will, the Senate Appropriations committee has cancelled LCS-4. The Navy Times has the details:

Senate appropriators unanimously approved a $459.3 billion defense spending bill for 2008. That’s $3.8 billion less than President Bush requested for fiscal 2008, which begins Oct. 1.

In July, the House Appropriations Committee passed a $459.6 billion defense spending bill for 2008. Differences between the two bills will be resolved by a conference committee made up of members from both houses of Congress.

During a Senate Appropriations Committee meeting Wednesday, Shelby complained that the Senate version of the 2008 budget eliminates $910.5 million that the Navy had requested for the Littoral Combat Ship program.

Because of spiraling costs, the Navy canceled the second Lockheed Martin ship last April. Now Senate appropriators have voted to cancel the second Austal-General Dynamics ship.

This blog covered the Senate Armed Services Committee vote back in June, noting that the reduction would allow for the construction of only 1 of the 3 planned LCS for FY08. So what does this latest series of decisions mean? Well, through FY08 there was supposed to be 7 Littoral Combat Ships built from FY05 - FY08, but instead there will 3.

  • LCS-1 - Delivery expected 2008
  • LCS-2 - Delivery expected 2008
  • LCS-3 - Canceled by Navy
  • LCS-4 - Canceled by Congress
  • LCS-5 - Projected to be funded FY08
  • LCS-6 - Appears Unfunded FY08
  • LCS-7 - Appears Unfunded FY08

OUCH. The US Navy 21st century transformational fleet didn't simply steer off coarse, it rammed the lighthouse. When a ships Captain runs the ship aground, there is usually an investigation and the Captain is almost always relieved of command. What then do we say about Admiralty that has run Fleet acquisition into the ground? To date the Navy has fired a few low level managers, at what point can the people making the big decisions take responsibility for an irresponsible fleet design. It's time to start over, from scratch if necessary.

Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better. The DDG-1000s are approved and funded based on the Navy budget number. This is going to be hugely problematic in the future, as the CBO pointed out last month.

The Navy’s estimate for the two lead ships of the DDG-1000 class is equivalent to about $230 million (in 2008 dollars) per thousand tons of lightship displacement (the weight of the ship without its fuel, payload, or crew). That figure is smaller than the cost of the lead DDG-51 class destroyer or the lead Ticonderoga class cruiser (in FY08 dollars). CBO’s estimate for the first two DDG-1000s—which equals $380 million per housand tons—is based on the cost of the lead DDG-51, adjusted for differences in the size of the two types of ships.

At the same time, the Navy’s 2008 budget submission to the Congress estimates the cost of building the seventh DDG-1000 in 2013 at about $2.1 billion (in 2013 dollars). Deflated to 2008 dollars (using the inflation index for shipbuilding that the Navy provided to CBO), that estimate equals about $1.6 billion—or the same as for an additional DDG-51, which would have the benefit of substantial efficiencies and lessons learned from the 62 models built previously. The lightship displacement of the DDG-1000 is about 5,000 tons greater than that of the DDG-51s under construction today. In effect, the Navy’s estimates imply that those 5,000 extra tons, as well as the 10 new technologies to be incorporated into the DDG-1000 class, will be free.

If you ask me, CDR Salamander is optimistic, he thinks the Navy will stay above 200 ships, but keep in mind the only thing we have learned regarding the Analysis of Alternatives to be released in November is a proposal to make 5 of the 19 planned CG(X) 10,000 tons heavier with nuclear power, which seems to indicate the Navy is looking to go larger and more expensive on the final leg of the future "transformational" fleet, following the same coarse as the other 21st century transformational programs. That tends to imply fewer DDG(X) replacements for the 62 DDG-51s.

As Captain Smith said in his August Proceedings article, if this is what Rumsfeld meant by changing to "think out of the box" with Transformation, it is passed time to jump right back into the box before it's too late.