Monday, October 22, 2024

Maritime Strategy Discussions

The discussion for the Navy's new Maritime Strategy is at CDRs place today, and likely all week. Also worth watching is SJS's place, where the author intends to add daily contributions. My contribution will likely be light today, only because I have so much to say and am not sure how many words I want to fill in the comments by myself. These are my questions regarding the strategy.

Will future debates on fleet size, composition, aircraft, platforms, tactical requirements, etc.. occur because of the existence of the new strategy, or because of the content of the new strategy?

Does the new strategy establish the intellectual basis that would require critical re-evaluation to current planning guidance?

Does the attempt to educate a broader audience (in a nation where even casual interest in the Navy is a high expectation) diminish its impact on the professional audience?

If you are looking for background, start here.

Additional background here.

5th Fleet Focus: Observing the Rotations

On Saturday, USS Whidbey Island (LSD 41) crossed the Suez Canal as expected to relieve USS Carter Hall (LSD 50) which is returning home after a 6 month deployment. While I know a number of SWO's who do not like me pointing it out, the LSD has become the US Navy ship of choice for fighting irregular warfare and piracy.

The continued rotation leads to extensive use of the current LSDs, which btw were already overused and in worn condition during the Clinton administration. This further erodes the capability of the Navy to deliver Marine Corp MEBs to combat on Expeditionary ships, and the LPD-17 class will not solve that problem. There are a number of discussions that can be conducted on this topic, but until then, I'll just note the latest rotation as yet another example the discussion is past due.

However, what also caught my attention on Saturday is that Standing NATO Maritime Group 2 (SNMG2) crossed the Suez Canal on Saturday as well.

Standing NATO Maritime Group 2 (SNMG2)

TCG Orucreis (F245)
HMS Northumberland (F238)
NMM Aliseo (F574)
HS Aegeon (F460)
SPS Canarias (F86)
FGS Rhoen (A1443)
USS Laboon (DDG 58)

There was no press release or announcement that I am able to locate in the US media, and I have made inquiries to people in other countries if they have heard anything. So far, nothing. This could be a number of things, including an unannounced exercise with Israel or Egypt in the Red Sea. Such exercises are usually go without much media attention.

However, this could be something else considering a number of regional events lately (and no I am not talking about Iran), and is something worth observing. If anyone is aware of a press release regarding the activity of SNMG2 south of the Suez, please post in comments.

Sunday, October 21, 2024

Sunday Strategy Reading

Looking for Naval reading on Sunday worth your time?

Start here.

Build the Next USS Nautilus (SS 1000)

The dirty little secret to the larger shipbuilding budgets the US Navy appears to have in FY07 and FY08 in its effort to build the 21st century fleet (under the 313-ship plan) is the reduced funding the Navy is allocating to innovation. It literally took an act of Congress to get "Tango Bravo" for example, and the same can be said for N-UCAS technologies.

This presents a problem as shipbuilding costs go up and the Navy tries harder to 'stay the coarse' with the shipbuilding strategy, and if Navy is going to continue high R&D budgets, the reasons need to scale a lot further than weapon system purposes.

Enter the nations largest civilian lobby, specifically the Environmental lobby and Global Warning Crowd. Backed by Nobel Peace Prizes, predicting the end of the human race (or perhaps just a few degrees Fahrenheit over the next century), and the sinking of our cities (or perhaps the rise of sea levels 18 inches in the next century), there is a lot of money being spent on alternative energy sources. It is time someone in the Dept. of the Navy took notice, and put a plan together.

If I had a voice, I'd offer an alternative to Congress through DARPA, and yes it means a conventionally powered submarine. While I do not believe the US Navy has a military need for a conventionally powered submarine, I do think the US Navy could use a new conventional submarine for both industrial and innovation purposes. Let us also remember the USS Nautilus (SSN 571) came before the surface fleet built a nuclear vessel. In the same regard, the Navy should follow this historical example and build the first conventionally powered vessel not to use gas or diesel fuel in the 21st century as a submarine.

The first of two technologies that need a serious look and offer the most potential for submarines, not to mention us average Joe's and Jane's driving cars, is the technology developed at the University of Purdue by Professor Jerry Woodall. With two doctoral students in the School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Jeffrey Ziebarth and Charles R. Allen, Professor Woodall has been perfecting affordable Hydrogen producing technology that can scale as a realistic replacement for current fuels.

Researchers at Purdue University have further developed a technology that could represent a pollution-free energy source for a range of potential applications, from golf carts to submarines and cars to emergency portable generators.

The technology produces hydrogen by adding water to an alloy of aluminum and gallium. When water is added to the alloy, the aluminum splits water by attracting oxygen, liberating hydrogen in the process. The Purdue researchers are developing a method to create particles of the alloy that could be placed in a tank to react with water and produce hydrogen on demand.

The gallium is a critical component because it hinders the formation of an aluminum oxide skin normally created on aluminum's surface after bonding with oxygen, a process called oxidation. This skin usually acts as a barrier and prevents oxygen from reacting with aluminum. Reducing the skin's protective properties allows the reaction to continue until all of the aluminum is used to generate hydrogen, said Jerry Woodall, a distinguished professor of electrical and computer engineering at Purdue who invented the process.

Since the technology was first announced in May, researchers have developed an improved form of the alloy that contains a higher concentration of aluminum.

Because the technology could be used to generate hydrogen on demand, the method makes it unnecessary to store or transport hydrogen - two major obstacles in creating a hydrogen economy, Woodall said.

The gallium component is inert, which means it can be recovered and reused.

"This is especially important because of the currently much higher cost of gallium compared with aluminum," Woodall said. "Because gallium can be recovered, this makes the process economically viable and more attractive for large-scale use. Also, since the gallium can be of low purity, the cost of impure gallium is ultimately expected to be many times lower than the high-purity gallium used in the electronics industry."

As the alloy reacts with water, the aluminum turns into aluminum oxide, also called alumina, which can be recycled back into aluminum. The recycled aluminum would be less expensive than mining the metal, making the technology more competitive with other forms of energy production, Woodall said.

The article goes into a great deal of detail, but additionally there is contact information at the bottom. I emailed Emil Venere as advised and was sent a good deal of additional information. There is also additional information available online here.

However there is a catch, in order for Woodall's technology to be cost effective fuel cell efficiency needs to be increased to around 75%. At Texas Tech, a scientist named Deeder Aurongzeb appears to have solved this problem with the second technology required.

A scientist at Texas Tech University named Deeder Aurongzeb may have developed a way to greatly increase fuel-cell efficiency. He uses a type of high-temperature fast assembly technique to create faceted depositions of Titanium, the primary catalyst in fuel cells. The facets create tiny bowls greatly increasing surface area. This potentially gives fuel cells much improved efficiency.

Not surprisingly, the article discusses Woodall's technology.

Dr. Jerry Woodall of Purdue University told me recently that the goal for fuel cell efficiency is 75%. If a cost-effective 75% efficient fuel cell could be created, there are countless alternate energy sources which would become economically viable as a replacement for fossil fuels, including a type of "water burning" chemical process he's developed called AlGal. He told me that 75% efficient fuel cells do exist today, but they are pohibitively expensive, costing several million dollars due to the complex manufacturing process and extremely low yield. He also told me that due to the fragile nature of those devices and their single-component makeup, their operational life is measured in only a few thousand hours. If one part breaks, the entire thing becomes unusable. Imagine a $4 million fuel cell giving you only 2,000 hours of life. It cost $2,000 per hour to operate. These devices need to get down to the $100s of dollars for the total unit, with many thousands of hours of operational life before they will be widely accepted.

Woodall is on record in a number of places calling out the Dept. of Energy for holding up the revolution. Maybe the DoE can afford to go without the latest and greatest technology, but assuming the D0D can overcome the nuclear mafia in the name of progress, the Navy should embrace the technology.

While many people have recently advocated the US Navy moving towards conventional submarines, I'm not one of those people. This technology does not represent a significant advancement in conventional submarine technology as much as it represents an alternative fuel technology demonstrator. However, just as the Navy led the way in the development of nuclear power, particularly in producing most of the nations nuclear engineers working in the private sector today, once again the Navy has an opportunity to lead in the area of alternative fuels.

It is also a way for the Navy to get increased funding for R&D, which is currently hampered by a high shipbuilding budget requirement. The way I see it, the US Navy needs to build another USS Nautilus (SSN 571), except instead of a nuclear submarine, a conventional submarine to pioneer technologies for the 21st century. I'd call it the USS Nautilus (SS 1000).

Thoughts on Chinese Nuclear Submarine Photography and Sources

The photography of the Type 094 nuclear submarines from Google Earth, and more recently the anonymously released close up for a pair of Type 094s has sparked several discussions about the Chinese nuclear submarine program.

Dealing with what we know, there are at least 3 Type 094s in the water, two Type 93s in the water, and in case you missed it, open source satellite imagery appears to show at least 1 more nuke being worked on in Huludea (check the update, there appears to be a tail sticking out of the rear of the yard). The satellite photo was taken on May 3, 2007, which means we will see in Dry Dock on a later date satellite photo to verify for certain which type of submarine it is. However, we agree with Sean O'Connor.

Further analysis of the Huludao shipyard appears to depict a third Type 094 hull in the area. What appears to be the rear end of a submarine hull can be seen jutting out of one of the main assembly halls. This object has a diameter of 11.8 meters, which would match up well with the 11.28 meter measurement taken from the visible hull of one of the two pierside 094s in the shipyard. A submarine out of water would obviously have a greater visible diameter as part of the hull is obscured from view under water when the vessel is seaborne. By employing Google Earth's overlay feature and adjusting the image opacity, it can also be seen that the hull contours of the unfinished hull match up nearly perfectly with the rear of the two 094 hulls pierside at Huludao. This hull would represent the fourth Type 094 SSBN, provided that the earlier analysis of the presence of three distinct hulls is accurate.

Based on analysis, the Type 094 appears to be a very similar design as the Type 093 with an extension for a missile bay, leaving open the possibility this submarine is a Type 093.

Based on previous build rates and strategies observed by the PLAN over the last decade, and using new data to verify credible sources, the information flow out of China tends to point to a total of 4 Type 093s and 4 Type 094s either built or under construction. Due to construction rate and what we are seeing based on analysis of facility improvements, one thing is clear, the production rate at Huludao is much higher than has been reported in the past.

We believe the release of photography of the Type 093 in various Chinese publications means the project is completed, and China has begun the Type 095 SSN. This pattern has been observed in previous submarine programs, and there is no reason to assume the pattern isn't valid at this time. This brings us back to the mystery of the nuclear submarine spotted that does not have planes on the sail. We believe the submarine photograph of the plane-less SSN represents a Type 093 mod, probably the 5th Type 093 as reported on Chinese bbs. This one class submarine photographed at sea in trials supports the theory that China has begun development of the Type 095.

Calculating the build rate at Huludao, this would put 4 Type 095s in the water by 2010, which is what is also being stated by sources on China bbs, by which time the Type 096 would be under construction.

Additionally, there is now speculation from various sources that China intends to upgrade the Type 092s by converting them into SSGNs. We do not know if this is true, but considering these sources appear to be "in the know" given the flood of photography evidence since July 2007 that has backed up their previous claims, we believe this information is worthy of note to watch for.

As we reached these conclusions this week, it was noted Feng also came to similar conclusions, likely from the same sources we are observing.