Wednesday, October 24, 2024

6th Fleet Focus: Noteworthy from Nigeria

Last week, the day after the USS McHenry (LSD 43) deployed on its African Partnership Station Initiative, Nigeria signed on. Nigeria's participation is a big deal, a huge opportunity for AFRICOM and the Navy and is an excellent example of the soft power discussed in the recently released Maritime Strategy.

The United States imports more oil from Nigeria than we do from Saudi Arabia. This puts the security situation in Nigeria very high on the interests of the United States. AllAfrica.com provides interesting insight into what the African Partnership Station Initiative is up against in Nigeria.

Chief of Defence Staff, Lt. General Andrew Owoye Azazi yesterday allayed the fears of Nigerians on the continued presence of United States military in the Gulf of Guinea.

Speaking at a forum in Abuja on Tuesday, the Defence chief said that Nigerians should not get unnecessarily worried over the matter as the troops are there just to give peace in the area. General Azazi said that US likes to have relative peace anywhere they have business interest.

"US wants relative peace to be able to undertake their business" he said pointing out that there is no other motive behind their troops presence to worry anybody.

The Nigerian public sees the US mission of "projecting stability" to the region as "exporting subversion." It is one of many stigma's the US Navy brings to the region, and it is going to take time to change perceptions. The article goes into detail regarding other challenges as well, problems ranging from corruption to HIV to security issues in the Niger Delta, including where "the Defence chief said that military have lost sizeable number of personnel in the troubled region but refused to give the exact figure of casualties." He acknowledges there isn't a military solution, there will have to be a political solution to stop the violence.

In the maritime domain, the security issues are evident.

MEN of the Nigeria Navy, NNS, Delta in Warri, Delta State have seized three vessels, including a Cotonou boat filled with condensate opposite the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) Refinery jetty in Warri.

Vanguard learnt that the three ships were intercepted, last Thursday, by a Naval Patrol team very early in the morning but the oil bunkerers on sighting the military men, abandoned their pumping machines, their boats and the stolen condensate.

Navy Information Officer in Warri, Lieutenant Sikiru Adigun confirmed to Vanguard, yesterday that the seized boats were with the possession of the Navy.

He said the authorities of the NNS, Delta has contacted the Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) to come and dispose off the condensate.

As at yesterday when Vanguard visited the Naval Base, the three ships were seen with the anchored at the waterside while the condensate in the Contonou boat was leaking into the water with a heavy stench around the area. A source said the Navy was waiting for the SPDC to come and take the condensate away.

Crime which has led to environmental problems which is compounded by military engagements... the cycle continues. This is a small peek into the challenges facing the African Partnership Station Initiative.

This is also why the strategic thinkers who developed the new Maritime Strategy wisely emphasize a soft power approach throughout the strategy.

Tuesday, October 23, 2024

Strategic "Defense in Depth" vs "Safety and Security"

The Maritime Strategy discussion continues over at CDR Salamanders place, but also at SteelJaw Scribe's place, with remarkable access to the writer available to anyone interested in asking questions. Remarkable, because there are few people actually taking advantage of the access being provided to bloggers and blog readers. To me that says a lot, the Navy made every effort to include interested citizens in the development process of the Maritime Strategy, and again is making an effort to explain it and answer questions, but in the end, no one cares.

Either way, credit the Navy, who attends the service even if the church is empty.

It has been said in policy discussions that strategic thinking is missing in the United States. I think we are seeing evidence of this. There is a tendency for a lot of people to move away from the strategic context and move directly to the CONOP. I'm not ready to make that move yet, there will be plenty of time for shipbuilding, procurement, and operational concepts but for me, I'm still stuck trying to make sense of the strategic vision this strategy sets going forward.

The new Maritime Strategy is intended to be the bridge that connects Seapower with policy. The following statements represent to me the executive summery in that regard.

This strategy stresses an approach that integrates seapower with other elements of national power, as well as those of our friends and allies. It describes how seapower will be applied around the world to protect our way of life, as we join with other like-minded nations to protect and sustain the global, inter-connected system through which we prosper. Our commitment to protecting the homeland and winning our Nation’s wars is matched by a corresponding commitment to preventing war.

The United States Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard will act across the full range of military operations to secure the United States from direct attack; secure strategic access and retain global freedom of action; strengthen existing and emerging alliances and partnerships and establish favorable security conditions.

I have observed that most of the frustration regarding the new MS revolves around 2 fundamental issues; the language in defining the strategic environment and the conceptional approach to strategic vision.

The language used to define the strategic environment is distracting, unclear, and doesn't even attempt to establish the intellectual basis for a new direction for the Navy.

The new MS takes the Navy into a revolution of security affairs. The term "safety and security" or just "security" is used many times as a substitute for the word defense. The language of the strategy puts the security of the global maritime environment in a brighter light than the defense of the nation. The language used to emphasize security blurs the distinctions between hard and soft power, civil affairs and military affairs, which then contributes to conceptional confusion for readers. This adds complexity to a document intended for a broader audience, which I think contributes directly to the lack of interest.

The language implies emphasis of collective security and stabilization instead of emphasis on collective defense. The strategy specifically mentions NATO and informal relationships like the Global Maritime Partnership initiative as a foundation for collective security agreements. This represents a grand strategy for global governance of the maritime domain with regional security as the mutual interest for engagement. However, by blurring the distinction between security and defense, and emphasizing the promotion of international partnerships built for regional security purposes, the strategy gives the impression the Navy desires to have its cake (collective defense) and eat it too (collective security). One doesn't equal the other, but the language used implies otherwise to a reader of the new MS.

There are very few cases where long term international partnerships for stabilization and security have been effective, and most have not been effective over the long term. Afghanistan is an example where it has been ineffective due to disproportional support, and in many cases UN peacekeeping missions apply as ineffective as well. The only thing going for the Navy is that failure in security and stability operations do not translate into failures of alliance, at least historically, meaning there is capital here for the Navy to spend without risking NATO or other formal and informal defense relationships. In the end, partnerships and alliances only lose credibility when they fail in their defense agreements, not when they fail in their security agreements.

The conceptional approach to the MS strategic vision has left many, including me, wanting more, but that doesn't mean the strategy is bad. The strategy lays out a broad outline in guidance, but the lack of specifics doesn't offer the details promoting changes many were hoping for. The conceptional approach was apparently intentional, which is a striking contrast to the 86 MS which was very detailed in outlining its strategic vision.

I think this was the right approach. Policy in the current political environment is a moving target, particularly for a nation already engaged in two wars that is also trying to prevent engagement in other theaters. In the US the target could potentially shift every 4 years with a new administration. The bridge between a shifting policy and Seapower needs flexibility, and for that, conceptional vision is the right approach.

The conceptional approach does provide some specificity in strategic vision, which leaves a lot of room to build tactical CONOP for those looking for change. "Regionally Concentrated, Credible Combat Power" and "Globally Distributed, Mission-Tailored Maritime Forces" sounds buzzworthy, but the tasks behind those descriptions are actionable and accurately articulates a 'Defense in Depth' strategic vision. The conceptional vision begins from a foundation of 6 core capabilities; Forward Presence, Deterrence, Sea Control, Power Projection, Maritime Security, and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response.

The conceptional approach established on a core set of capabilities intended to perform a number of specific tasks explains why some in the industry won't care much for the new strategy. The outlined Defense in Depth with a strong emphasis on security implies the need for new metrics in procurement, because no matter how you look at it, the Navy has embraced security cooperation as a major part of the Defense in Depth conceptional strategic vision. For starters, the conventional military configuration is less relevant when the threats are of the asymmetric variety, meaning several big budget item crowds are going to need new PPTs in justification of their gold plated capability.

I think there is a lot of strategical depth worth exploring in the new strategy, but I think the reason why the conversation has stalled over the last few days is in a large part due to the confusing language which missed the mark with the broader audience the MS was intended to reach. Some of this is due to a lack of strategic literacy in the US, citizens have had government substituting policy for strategy and this has contributed to the problem. Either way, credit the Navy, by being available for questions, people have no reason to claim ignorance, they can only claim citizen inaction in understanding the new Navy Maritime Strategy.

Littoral Combat Ship for Israel Update

Defense News has an article on all the benchmarks LCS-1 is passing as it tries to get to sea. Yawn. When it actually gets to sea, call me. If the price goes up, call me. Otherwise, I'm not interested in LCS-1. I'm tired of talking about LCS-1 getting ready, I want to see it ready already.

But I was interested in the second half of the Defense News article.

Meanwhile, Lockheed also is continuing work on an international version of the LCS for Israel. Last month, NAVSEA awarded an additional $2.5 million to the company to study the combat system configuration.

“This is an effort to look at the combat system performance with the systems the Israelis specify,” said Gary Feldman, Lockheed’s business development director for the international LCS.

Earlier this year, the company completed work under a 2006 $5.2 million NAVSEA contract to study hull, mechanical and engineering systems for the Israeli LCS.

“We validated the hull could accommodate the systems,” Feldman said. “The goal was to maintain as much commonality with the U.S. versions as possible. We were very successful. The hull is very much the same hull. The topside modifications were necessary for the combat system. We validated it with the multifunction radar, Mk 41 vertical launch system and other systems.”

In contrast with the U.S. LCS, Israel is eschewing the mission module concept in favor of a more heavily armed ship carrying permanently emplaced systems.

The new nine-month study will study integration of the Lockheed Aegis SPY-1F radar and the Israeli Elta EL/M-2248 Adir radar with the Combatss-21 system, Feldman said.

The Israelis already have specified use of a Rafael Typhoon gun, he said. The missile system is to be capable of launching a U.S. Raytheon Standard SM-2 surface-to-air missile, but the study will also look at incorporating the Israel Aerospace Industries Barak 1 and 8 missile systems.

“When the study is completed, we’ll expect the Israelis will move forward with contract design,” he said.

If the Israelis gain approval to buy the LCS, Feldman added, detail design could begin in 2009 with construction starting in 2010.

I keep wondering what a LCS with teeth will cost, but I also wonder what the LCS without teeth will ultimately cost...

Virginia Class Submarine Approaches Cost Benchmarks

Defense News has an update regarding the cost of the Virginia class submarines.

Designers, managers and builders of the U.S. Navy's SSN 774 Virginia-class nuclear attack submarines say they have finally cut the program's cost to about $2 billion per sub.

"As of September, we are about $50 million away from the $2 billion submarine," Capt. Dave Johnson, the Navy's Virginia-class program manager, said Oct. 19. As of now, he said, "we are at about $2.05 billion."

The figure has been key to the Navy's hope to begin building two subs per year starting in 2012. Submarine proponents in Congress are hoping to jump-start that effort in the current defense bills, now in House-Senate conference. If they succeed, an additional sub could appear as soon as 2009.

The new Navy cost estimates are for the 2012 submarine, and assume that two subs would be ordered in that year.

Managers for General Dynamics Electric Boat, the chief design shipyard for the submarines, are optimistic they can get the cost even closer to the $2 billion goal.
With a redesigned bow and at least 150 more improvements on the way, the program is "within about $15 million," John Holmander, Electric Boat's Virginia-class program manager, said Oct. 19. "And we have actual plans that should get us to the balance."

What I find interesting is that it appears the Block III changes will both enhance capability and interoperability while reducing costs. The ASDS lockout chamber was retained despite earlier warnings it would be removed. Also interesting are the changes to the sonar and VLS.

The new LAB sonar array will substitute the sonar sphere's active/passive transducers for a listening-only hydrophone system. Replacement of the water-backed LAB array for the air-backed sonar sphere will save about $11 million per sub, wrote Johnson.

Much of those savings will come from eliminating hundreds of penetrations associated with the sphere. Electric Boat also will no longer need to shape the spheres using a very expensive and sophisticated five-axis cutting machine.

The new LAB array will feature two primary components: the passive array - using hydrophone technology from the Seawolf SSN 21-class submarines - and a medium-frequency active array.
The new hydrophones will last the planned 33-year life of the submarine, while the transducers will need replacement at about 17 years.

Another advantage, said Kurt Hesche, EB's design and engineering director for the submarines: While the sphere needed more than a thousand transducers costing more than $5,000 apiece, the LAB's 1,800 hydrophones cost only $600.

The Defense News article goes on to describe a number of changes to the VLS. The 12 Tomahawk vertical launch tubes are out, replaced by two larger tubes. The missile tubes are slightly wider modifications of the 7-foot diameter D-5 Trident ballistic missile tubes with changes similar to those done in the Ohio-class SSGN conversions.

The tubes will be newly manufactured and somewhat shorter than the Ohio tubes because of the smaller Virginia hull. Each will be able to carry a Multiple All-Up-Round Canister (MAC) fitted with six Tomahawks removing the center one for an access tube.

The missile canister will be removable from the new Virginia Payload Tubes leaving room for larger weapons or underwater vehicles. The connectors and width dimensions are the same as the tubes fitted on the Ohio SSGNs which will allow interoperability between the two submarine classes for new payloads. The new tubes will nearly double the amount of payload space of the existing tubes, going from 1,200 cubic feet to 2,300. The new missile tubes are expected to save an estimated $8 million per ship beginning with the 2012 ship.

While the article is behind the firewall at Defense News, you can find the entire Defense News article in the Monday October 22nd Office of Information News Clips.

Monday, October 22, 2024

5th Fleet Focus: The Enemy Exploits the Gaps

The Discussion of Maritime Strategy is on, and it is over at CDRs place and at SJS's place. I intend to be focused on it at least once every day this week, and probably more than that for awhile. We are told the new Maritime Strategy is the "strategic concept which clearly formulates its relationship to the national security." This was on my mind as I read this today.

Eagle1 picked up two reports of events taking place off Somalia. The first one.

The UN World Food Programme on Monday renewed pleas for deployment of foreign naval vessels to protect food aid in Somali waters, a day after its chartered freighter escaped a piracy attack.

On Sunday, WFP-chartered, Comoran-flagged MV Jaikur II came under attack 60 nautical miles off the Somali port of Brava, south of Mogadishu, where it had had just unloaded 7,275 metric tons of WFP food and was sailing back to Mombasa.

The pirates fired, but the ship managed to escape.

And this one.

Somali pirates have seized a cargo ship off the east African coast, the head of a local seafarer's association said on Monday.

Gunmen attacked the vessel on Wednesday, said Andrew Mwangura, the program co-ordinator of the East Africa Seafarers Assistance Programme, but due to chaotic communications with war-ravaged Somalia the incident had taken several days to confirm.

He did not have details on the number or nationality of the crew members aboard the Almarjan, a cargo ship of over 2 500 tons that was flying under a flag from the Comoros Islands and operated by Dubai-based Biyat International.

...

Somali pirates attacked four ships over two days last week, hijacking a Dubai-based vessel that is still in their possession, the head of a local seafarers group said Monday.

Pirates chased after three of the boats and shot at one of them on October 17 and 18, but the ships were able to escape a hijacking. The other, seized last Wednesday, was not as fortunate.

How timely. As I noted yesterday, the USS Carter Hall (LSD 50) exited the region while the USS Whidbey Island (LSD 41) entered the AOR, both crossing the Suez Canal on Saturday. Somehow I missed that also crossing the Suez the same day was FS Commandant Blaison (F793), replaced by the FS Commandant Ducuing (F795) which entered the AOR. As I noted also entering the Red Sea was SNMG2, although SNMG2's destination is yet unknown.

Is strikes me as more than coincidence that the two ships most reported to be working off the coast of Somalia, specifically USS Carter Hall (LSD 50) and FS Commandant Blaison (F793) just happened to be returning home during these pirate attacks.

It is very clear the pirates of Somalia have excellent intelligence of coalition naval operations taking place in TF150. It also seems to me that somebody over at CENTCOM dropped the ball here. Either the forces covering for the two ships were unequal to the task, or CENTCOM made a conscience choice to not protect the coast due to some other reasons (force limitations perhaps) while rotations were taking place at the Suez. Either way, this has all the appearances of a blunder in dealing with piracy off the African West Coast.

The new Maritime Strategy, "A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower," offers specific guidance for the Navy through 6 Tasks, 6 Capabilities, and 3 Priorities. They are

Six Tasks:
1. Limit regional conflict with forward deployed, decisive maritime power.
2. Deter major power war.
3. Win our Nation's wars.
4. Contribute to homeland defense in depth.
5. Foster and sustain cooperative relationships with more international partners.
6. Prevent or contain local disruptions before they impact the global system.

Six Capabilities
1. Forward Presence.
2. Deterrence.
3. Sea Control.
4. Power Projection.
5. Maritime Security.
6. Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response.

Three Priorities
1. Improve Integration and Interoperability.
2. Enhance Awareness.
3. Prepare our People.

I want to focus on the Task "Prevent or contain local disruptions before they impact the global system." The strategy defines it as such:

Maritime forces will work with others to ensure an adequate level of security and awareness in the maritime domain. In doing so, transnational threats—terrorists and extremists; proliferators of weapons of mass destruction; pirates; traffickers in persons, drugs, and conventional weapons; and other criminals—will be constrained.

By being there, forward deployed and engaged in mutually beneficial relationships with regional and global partners, maritime forces will promote frameworks that enhance security. When natural or manmade disasters strike, our maritime forces can provide humanitarian assistance and relief, joining with interagency and non-governmental partners. By participating routinely and predictably in cooperative activities, maritime forces will be postured to support other joint or combined forces to mitigate and localize disruptions.

I don't know the specific reasons this came to prominence in the new Maritime Strategy, but for us laymen looking for a reason why these types of maritime security issues matter to the larger regional maritime safety, I encourage you to check here and follow the links.

The new Strategy is designed to reach the interested citizens of the nation, what I call the Boston Maggie's of the US, although that might be setting the mark way too high cause she knows her stuff. Basically, interested citizen John's and Jane's who give a shit. So this is my citizen John and Jane test. If NATO, including the US Navy pulls off the coast of Somalia, and several ships get attacked by pirates including a ship chartered for the UN World Food Programme, did the Navy properly execute the strategic guidance as described above? I'd be willing to bet Maggie would say no.

I think it was the 'routine' and 'predictable' nature of rotations that allowed the pirates to disrupt the maritime domain off Somalia. I am pretty sure when the UN World Food Programme chartered vessel is attacked, it falls under the category of either pirate or 'other criminals' as described in the new Maritime Strategy.

In other words, allowing the enemy (pirates, criminals, whatever) exploit the gaps in our "forward presence," these incidents represent a failure in "preventing and containing local disruptions before they impact the global system."

Yes, I am borrowing a bunch of language from the new Maritime Strategy to highlight events. It is what it is, I didn't write it. I point out that the task "Prevent or contain local disruptions before they impact the global system" is on an equal level as the task "Win our Nation's wars." The Navy has said as much, because the Navy has made a big deal about the task "Deter major power war" being on the same level as the task "Win our Nation's wars." So answer me this...

Is failure in "Prevent or contain local disruptions before they impact the global system" equal to failure to "Win our Nation's wars?" Somehow, I seriously doubt it, nor would I advocate it to be, but if the Navy is serious about their own strategy they need to take very seriously the failure within the 5th Fleet regarding the recent activity off Somalia, because not to do so cheapens the content of the new Maritime Strategy.

I'll be watching Standing NATO Maritime Group 2, it could be we are seeing the very early implementation of new Maritime Strategy. I hope so, I also doubt it.