5th Fleet Focus: Submarine Strike on Somalia

We don't usually discuss submarine operations here, at least we usually avoid giving away any information not in the open source, and usually only discuss operations when correcting some silly reporter out of his depth, but we will explore this story just a bit. From the NY Times.

American naval forces fired missiles into southern Somalia on Monday, aiming at what the Defense Department called terrorist targets...

The missile strike was aimed at Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, a Kenyan born in 1979 who is wanted by the F.B.I. for questioning in the nearly simultaneous attacks on a hotel in Mombasa, Kenya, and on an Israeli airliner taking off from there, in 2002, said three American officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the strike or its details.

One American military official said the naval attack on Monday was carried out with at least two Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from a submarine. The official said the missiles were believed to have hit their targets. Witnesses on the ground, though, described the attack differently.

“I did not know from where they were launched, but what I know is that they hit a house in this town,” said Muhammad Amin Abdullahi Osman, a resident of Dhobley, a small town in southern Somalia near the Kenyan border.

Mr. Muhammad said two missiles slammed into the house around 3:30 a.m.

There is no confirmation regarding strike success, the NY Times report is totally different than everyone else and claims the Navy killed some cows and a donkey, and somehow only partially destroyed a house. I think it is pretty clear to everyone but the NY Times editors that two Tomahawks will do more damage than to simply partially damage a house and slaughter a few farm animals, most likely in fact damaging several houses on a block in a town only 4 miles from the border of Kenya. I guess they don't get out of Manhattan much.

According to open source sources, there are two submarines in the region, the USS Montpelier (SSN 765), who is attached to the Harry S Truman Carrier Strike Group, and the USS Norfolk (SSN 714) who was reported to have crossed the Suez canal in late January.

Either submarine could have carried out the strike, and it is entirely possible there is more than 2 submarines in the region, but as we continue to say simply to highlight it for the Navy (whom we know are reading), the Navy operations folk continue to follow very predictable patterns, and we believe the USS Norfolk (SSN 714) let fly the pair of Tomahawk missiles, which is a reminder, submarines don't need VLS to give terrorists a kick in the ass.

Honestly, we hope we are wrong, we are tired of the predictability. It is something that should never happen with submarines.

5th Fleet Focus: UN Sanctions Call Upon The Navy

While Dear Leader II has been screaming for headlines with his recent Iraq visit, and blames the west for all problems in Iran and Iraq, and generally cries over the problems of a country sitting on the worlds largest oil reserve yet insists they need nuclear power; this isn't going to make the folks back home very happy.

The U.N. Security Council approved by a vote of 14 to 1 a third set of sanctions against Iran on Monday for not suspending uranium enrichment in defiance of two previous resolutions.

The new draft resolution was adopted by the council, with all of five veto-wielding permanent members -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States -- voting in favor.

But Indonesia, a non-permanent member, abstained from voting, maintaining further sanctions on Tehran are counter-productive and that a recent International Atomic Energy Agency report says significant progress has been made in Iran's cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog.

This is the first time that a Security Council resolution on Iran has not been approved by consensus.

The resolution, drafted by Britain, France and Germany in cooperation with the United States, calls for asset freezes and travel bans on individuals related to nuclear development and inspections of cargo suspected to be linked to such development, as well as vigilance on Iranian banks.

Emphasis mine. That my friends, sounds like the beginning of a naval blockade against the Iranian nuclear industry. Just in time too, in case you haven't noticed, there is a massive number of warships from Europe that happen to be in that theater all of a sudden. I'm sure it is all unrelated.

Things just got interesting.

Shocker: Chavez Supports Terrorism

While its not a smoking gun, there is definitely some smoke here.

Colombia's police chief said Monday that documents recovered from a slain rebel leader's computer reveal financial ties between Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Colombia's largest guerrilla group, including a recent message that mentions US$300 million in Venezuelan support for the rebels.

The official, Gen. Oscar Naranjo, didn't say if there was any indication in the Feb. 14 message that Venezuela actually delivered this money to the rebels.

Another document found in the laptop belonging to slain rebel leader Raul Reyes suggests financial ties between Chavez and the rebels dating back to 1992, Naranjo said. At the time, Chavez was jailed in Venezuela for leading a coup attempt, and was plotting the comeback that eventually led to his election as president in 1998.

"A note recovered from Raul Reyes speaks of how grateful Chavez was for the 100 million pesos (about US$150,000 at the time) that the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, delivered to Chavez when he was in prison," said Naranjo told a news conference.

In a perfect world the UN would move in and verify the quality of these allegations, and begin an investigation. You can stop laughing now.

Is anyone actually surprised Chavez supports terrorism? The only people who would even claim disbelief are those who have put political ideology ahead of logic regarding Chavez. It is sad there are so many of those folks.

I don't believe anything will come of this, but I am starting to the think the silence from Washington means there are a lot of people who do hope something happens. Columbia has both its eastern and southwestern border to defend with troops massing on both, and there could be as many as 10,000 US troops in Columbia right now as "trainers" for the Columbian military. If Venezuela conducted an air strike, one can imagine there are many who would absolutely love to send in the F-22As to clear the air space, and blow all those shiny new Russian fighters Chavez bought the last few years to hell. It would be hard for Chavez to stay in power once his military is humiliated for one of his political statements, which is why I expect nothing will happen.

Looking For Measurements To SOUTHCOM Successes

We find it interesting that on the day the press is reporting South America is on the brink of war, South American newspapers are reporting several nations have pulled out of UNITAS. It appears the UNITAS exercise will consist only of the United States, Brazil, and Argentina this year.

Nuclear aircraft carrier USS George Washington, one of the world’s most impressive man-o-war and three other US Navy units will be participating in joint exercises with the navies from Brazil and Argentina along the coast of Rio do Janeiro, reports Correio Braziliense Friday edition.

The leading newspaper from the capital Brasilia says the exercise will begin next April 22 and will last for two weeks in the framework of the 49th edition of the Unitas joint naval exercises the US Navy has been involved with its Latinamerican counterparts since 1959.

The report goes on to say that Chile, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela and now Uruguay has withdrawn from the UNITAS 2008 exercise arguing the exercises were “outdated”. There is currently no US media report with any details.

Last year the USS Pearl Harbor (LSD 52) led Task Group 40.0, which included the Chilean frigate CS Almirante Latorre (FFG 14), in the South American exercise. Task Group 40.0 was the Partnership of the Americas (POA) 2007 deployment last year and also included USS Mitscher (DDG 57) and USS Samuel B Roberts (FFG 58). It is unclear if the report is true regarding other participants in UNITAS, but if it is true this would be a major blow to the US Navy.

What isn't clear is what this means for the Partnership of the Americas (POA) 2008 deployment, whether that deployment will include the USS George Washington (CVN 73) and its escorts or other vessels, and what this might mean for PANAMAX 2008, which is usually another major exercise of the POA deployment. This does however give insight to what the USS George Washington (CVN 73) deployment will be like for its move to Japan later this year.

With South American Navies pulling out of UNITAS, it raises other questions regarding the recent focus by the Navy to South America. While SOUTHCOM provides an outstanding statistical scorecard regarding the work the good folks on the USNS Comfort (T-AH 20) did last year on its humanitarian mission, which began in June of 2007, and was a major component of the president’s “Advancing the Cause of Social Justice in the Western Hemisphere” initiative. However, it is unclear if all of that fine work actually contributed to a measurable gain for United States foreign policy to the region. Conventional wisdom would be that it did, most specifically with the people, but with a number of the nations visited pulling out of UNITAS it raises questions regarding the impact of humanitarian assistance to the governments of nations visited. We note the measurements of polling data used in SE Asia has revealed a sharp increase in the popularity of the US there, and while we aren't sure if that is a tangible measurement, at least it is something. Where is similar polling data for SOUTHCOM?

This highlights a missing requirement for future humanitarian missions, there needs to be a tangible metric for measurement for success of failure, which is critical in the determination regarding whether this is an effective use of Naval resources or not. Good intentions and good will are not metrics, and statistics tell the work being done, but do not give good information for cost analysis for success. While we concede the expectation of success, we do not concede that it was a success until data can be presented to prove it, because too much is riding on the humanitarian strategy to simply assume it is working without evidence.

We also note that when nations pull out of an annual exercise with history dating back to 1959, something is definitely amiss in measuring successes or meeting expectations for cooperation.

Taiwan and US ASW and Submarine News

Looks like things are shaking up with the Taiwan P-3C purchase.

The United States has dropped plans to let eight of the 12 P-3C anti-submarine aircrafts - which Taiwan plans to buy from the US - be assembled in Taiwan, local media reported Monday.

The United Daily News, quoting an unnamed military source, said the US, taking advantage of Taiwan's dismantling an arms purchase firm in charge of the P-3C deal, has withdrawn its promise to let eight of the 12 P-3Cs be assembled in Taiwan.

Also an important note of interest. Eric Wertheim makes the following comment in the March 08 issue of Proceedings in his World Navies Review article.

In Taiwan, the plan to purchase eight diesel submarines, partially paid for with U.S. foreign military aid, has been formally canceled by Taiwan's legislature. Though promised by the George W. Bush administration in 2001, few nations with submarine expertise seemed willing to raise the wrath of mainland China by offering such advanced technology to Taiwan.

Looks like the US will not be exporting conventional submarines to Taiwan in the future. Seems to me that if Taiwan wants submarines, they should try to buy some from Russia, who hasn't met an arms deal they would reject so far this century.