Tuesday, April 22, 2024

The Pursuit of Invisible Warships

The following is from an article written by Norman Friedman in 2006, whose books you should own (particularly that one and that one) if you read this blog. The article called The Shape of Ships, can be purchased online.

The following portion has been quoted from Ronald O'Rourke's Congressional Research Report Navy DDG-1000 Destroyer Program: Background, Oversight Issues, and Options for Congress (PDF) dated April 11, 2008. We will discuss this report in more detail as part of our FY2009 theme later this week, but this is a topic all its own.

In the case of the DD(X), the overriding requirement [in determining the hull design] was to minimise radar cross section — stealth. Much of the hull design was dictated by the attempt to reflect radar pulses away from the radar emitting them, so that radar returns would be minimised. By now the main technique is well known: slope all flat surfaces and eliminate the corner reflector created by the juncture of the hull and water....

If the ship could be stabilized sufficiently [against rolling from side to side], then she would never (or almost never) present any vertical surfaces [to a radar]. In the case of DD(X), stabilization is apparently achieved using ballast tanks. Such tanks in turn demand internal volume deep in the ship. Overall, stealth demands that as much as possible of the overall volume of the ship be buried in her hull, where the shape of the ship can minimise radar returns. That is why, paradoxically, a carefully-designed stealthy ship will be considerably larger — for more internal volume — than a less stealthy and more conventional equivalent. In the case of DD(X), there were also demands for improved survivability. The demand for stealth implied that anti-ship missiles were the most important envisaged threat. They hit above water, so an important survivability feature would be to put as much of the ship’s vitals as possible below water — which meant greater demands for underwater volume....

Once the tumblehome hull had been chosen, [the ship’s designers] were apparently also constrained to slope the bow back [creating a surface-piercing or ram bow] instead of, as is usual, forward....

There were numerous reasons why [past] naval architects abandoned tumblehome hulls and ram bows. Tumblehome reduces a ship’s ability to deal with underwater damage. When a conventional flared (outward-sloping) hull sinks deeper in the water, its waterplane area [the cross-section of the ship where it intersects the plane of the water] increases. It becomes somewhat more stable, and it takes more water to sink it deeper into the water. Because the waterplane area of a tumblehome ship decreases as it draws more water, such a ship is easier to sink deeper. Tumblehome also apparently makes a ship less stable, and hence less capable of resisting extreme weather conditions. The larger the ship, the more extreme the weather has to be to make that critical. Critics of DD(X) have concentrated on the danger; defenders have concentrated on how extreme the critical weather condition would be.

In the end, whether the DD(X) hull form is attractive depends on an evaluation of anti-radar stealth as a design driver. About a decade ago, the DD(X) design concept was sold on the basis of a lengthy (and, incidentally, unclassified) analysis, the gist of which was that a heavily-armed surface combatant could play a decisive role in a Korean scenario...

The key analytic point... was that it would be very important for the ship to come reasonably close to enemy shores unobserved. That in turn meant antiradar stealth. However, it soon came to mean a particular kind of anti-radar performance, against centimetric-wave radars [radars with wavelengths on the order of centimeters] of the sort used by patrol aircraft (the ship would fire [its weapons] from beyond the usual horizons of shore-based radars). As it happens, anti-ship missiles use much the same kinds of radars as patrolling aircraft, so it could be argued that the same anti-radar techniques would be effective in the end-game in which missiles would approach the ship....

Without access to files of the time, it is impossible to say whether those approving the [DDG-1000] project realised that its stealth and survivability characteristics would produce a 14,000 to 17,000 ton destroyer. About the same time that DD(X) characteristics (requirements) were being approved, the decision was taken at [the] Defense Department (not Navy) level that there would be no internal feasibility design. In the past, the feasibility stage had the very useful role of showing those setting requirements what their implications would be. At the very least, the Navy’s senior leadership would have been given warning that they would have to justify a drastic jump in destroyer size when they wanted to build DD(X). That jump might well have been considered justified, but on the other hand the leadership might also have asked whether a somewhat less dramatic approach would have been acceptable.

About a decade after the requirements were chosen, with DD(X) well advanced, the situation with regard to stealth may be changing. Shaping is relevant only at relatively short [radar] wavelengths. For about a quarter-century, there has been talk of HF surface wave radars, which operate at wavelengths of about 10 to 200 meters — i.e. at wavelengths the size of a ship. Canada currently operates this type of radar, made by Raytheon, for surveillance of the Grand Banks; another is being tested in the Caribbean. Australia has bought this kind of radar to fill gaps in over-the-horizon radar coverage. Turkey is buying such radars for sale for some years. In 2005 it was reported unofficially that China had bought [a] Russian HF surface wave radar the previous year.

It seems almost certain that HF surface wave radar can defeat any kind of stealth shaping designed primarily to deal with shorter-wave[length] radars. Moreover, [HF surface wave] radars have an inherent maximum range (due to the way they operate) of about 180nm.... At long range [the radar’s beam] is not nearly accurate enough to aim a missile. However, we can easily imagine a netted system which would use the long-range [HF surface wave] radar to define a small box within which the target ship would be. A missile with GPS [Global Positioning System] guidance could be flown to that box, ordered to search it....

If the argument given here is realistic, then the considerable sacrifices inherent in the DD(X) design no longer seem nearly as attractive. It can still be argued that a design like the DD(X) is attractive well out to sea, beyond the reach of coastal radars. In that case, however, there may be other signatures which can be exploited. For example, ships proceeding at any speed create massive wakes.... it is clear that the wake produces a radar return very visible from an airplane or, probably, from a space-based radar....

In the end, then, how much is stealth worth? As a way of avoiding detection altogether, probably less than imagined. That leaves the rather important end-game, the hope being that decoys of some sort greatly exceed actual ship radar cross-section. That is probably not a foolish hope, but it does not require the sort of treatment reflected in [the] DD(X). Now, it may be that the Untied States typically faces countries which have not had the sense to buy anti-stealth radars (though we would hate to bet on that). In that case, DD(X) may well be effectively invisible to them. So will a lot of less thoroughly stealthy ships.

Only submarines can be effectively invisible at sea.

Northrop Grumman Wins BAMS

Northrop Grumman has been awarded the system development and Demonstration (SDD) contract for the Broad Area Maritime Surveillance Unmanned Aircraft System (BAMS UAS). From Navy Times.

Northrop Grumman will build the Navy’s much-anticipated Broad Area Maritime Surveillance (BAMS) drone, beating out Boeing and the Lockheed Martin-General Atomics team for the $1.16 billion developmental contract.

The deal, announced by the Navy late Tuesday, includes funding for two unmanned aircraft, a systems integration lab, and two mission control systems: one primary base system and a second designed for a forward operating base.
This is a huge boost for Northrop Grumman, who now has the contracts for the two most important unmanned systems contracts to date for the Navy. If you recall, last year Northrop Grumman won the contract for the N-UCAS system as well. Some of the details of the BAMS contract.
BAMS will serve as an adjunct to the Boeing-built P-8 Poseidon — the sea service’s 737-800-based, submarine-hunting manned aircraft. Naval officials said the fact that Boeing will build the P-8 did not affect the BAMS decision...

At 68 aircraft, the BAMS fleet will be the world’s largest purchase of long-endurance marinized UAVs...

The 68 UAVs will include six developmental aircraft: three test birds, three low-rate initial production (LRIP) aircraft to be used for operational evaluation, Balderson said.

Under its own steam and on its own dime, Northrop has already kicked off a risk-reduction project that has logged 18 flights and 40 hours of flight testing to look at communications, sensor and bandwidth management systems.

The RQ-4N’s first delivery is expected in late fiscal 2011, Dishman said.
You can check out the specifications of the RQ-4N on the official BAMS page on Northrop Grumman's website.

The Piracy Problem, Politics and Possibilities

We are rapidly approaching the political discussion regarding maritime piracy, and it is going to be one worth observing closely. Piracy is not a threat to the global system, at least not yet, but it is beginning to take a toll on global economics and a potential of future disruption is now on the minds of many. While it is one thing for a tuna boat with 13 Spanish citizens to be hijacked at sea, the oil bunkering and disruption of oil in Nigeria, and now a bold attack on the 150,000 ton Japanese super tanker is a warning sign that a shared international security challenge is emerging. What we find most interesting about the problem is that not only is it global, but it is an issue where many nations find common ground.

With back to back piracy incidents, France and Spain are taking the lead on many fronts, including the process relevant to the political debate regarding the exercise of military power, but also by building support through international institutions. This Navy Times article sets up a number of interesting discussions.
The United States and France are drafting a U.N. resolution that would allow countries to chase and arrest pirates off Somalia’s coast, responding to a spate of attacks including this week’s hijacking of a Spanish tuna boat, U.N. diplomats said Monday.

France’s U.N. Ambassador Jean-Maurice Ripert said the resolution would authorize foreign governments to pursue pirate vessels into territorial waters, make arrests, and prosecute suspects.
Where is the problem?
According to a report from the International Maritime Bureau, piracy is on the rise, with seafarers suffering 49 attacks between January and March — up 20 percent from the period last year.

Nigeria ranked as the No. 1 trouble spot. India and the Gulf of Aden tied for second, with each reporting five incidents. Nearly two dozen piracy incidents were recorded off the coast of Somalia since January 2007, according to Andrew Mwangura of the Kenya-based Seafarers Assistance Program.
Why does it matter to you?
The tanker attack helped send crude oil prices to a new record, spiking above $117 a barrel Monday before falling back slightly...

Cyrus Mody, a senior analyst at the Maritime Bureau, warned of piracy’s effect on the shipping industry.

“Insurance gets involved, premiums rise up, the owner is not happy so he will raise his freight cost. If he does that, the cost to the end buyer increases and at the end the common man has to bare the brunt,” he said. “It’s a cycle and it keeps going on.”
Now follow where the discussion is going...
The Spanish prime minister’s office said efforts were under way to secure the sailors’ release, and that aid was being sought from NATO, the African Union, France and Britain. Spain does not have an embassy in Somalia, which has not had an effective government since 1991...

The European Union presidency on Monday called for a strong international effort to address piracy, while Spanish lawmaker Mikel Irujo Amezaga urged immediate action at the European Parliament.

“There is a lack of EU legislation on maritime security. Security is more or less regulated inside the EU but once you go outside, there’s nothing at all protecting European ships. We’re going to ask the (European) Commission again to rectify this,” Irujo Amezaga said by telephone.
As the world looks for consensus on maritime law enforcement, they have appropriately turned to the international institutions including United Nations, NATO, the African Union, and the European Union for a way forward. In observing this approach, we believe there is a good case to be made that the piracy issue serves as an excellent test case to determine the usefulness of international institutions in the 21st century to promote international security in the post Iraq environment.

Most Americans don't realize just how low on the priorities list of the US Navy piracy falls in that region. There is a lot more going on in the 5th Fleet than we hear about in the news, and our nations Navy is very busy. Imagine a world where a US Navy ship opens fire in the Strait of Hormuz on an Iranian vessel and nobody hears about it. We live in that world, and if it wasn't for a leak in the Pentagon several days later regarding an incident with Iran where no weapons were fired, we never would have heard about the USS Whidbey Island (LSD 41) firing warning shots at Iranian boats that got too close. We believe this type of incident is more routine than is being reported. Remember the PC boat that fired a flare as a warning the other day? I didn't bring it up for discussion because I didn't think it was news, and in the context of all the stuff we don't hear about through the media, I still don't think it was news.

In observing what naval news does come out of the 5th Fleet region, we're convinced we are only hearing about 10% of what is going on region wide. While it is easy to imagine based on our weekly Order of Battles that NATO ships are patrolling the shores looking for pirates and protecting the maritime domain, that is not reality. In that region of earth and sea we do not see the smuggling, human trafficking, and other criminal activity that naval forces are dealing with. In a place of warlord, tribe, and king where every family is locked, loaded and being resupplied by the local arms dealer, military forces at sea have their hands full with the day to day.

Based on our last Order of Battle, the United States Navy has only 10 surface combatants in the entire 5th Fleet region; 2 cruisers, 7 destroyers, and a frigate. Among many other unnamed roles, those ten surface combatants are expected to provide protection for the Iraqi maritime domain, missile defense for the Middle East, escort for military cargo coming in and out of the region in support of two wars, escort to other naval forces including the regional aircraft carrier, the protection of maritime trade, exercise and operate with foreign naval forces, support maritime security operations, logistically supply naval forces of both the United States and allies, protect key ports and maritime facilities in the region, and carry out mission profiles against global terror organizations in the region that operate and train in ungoverned lands.

The Red Sea has an estimated area of 174,000 square miles. The Persian Gulf has an estimated area of 93,000 square miles. The Arabian Sea has an estimated area of 1,491,000 square miles. The 5th Fleet website claims the total area of responsibility is 7.5 million square miles. We hear how hard it is for our ground forces to cover all of Iraq with a surge force of 160,000 troops, but Iraq only has an area of 167,400 square miles, 10x smaller than those three bodies of water, and 44x smaller than the 5th Fleet area of responsibility the US Navy patrols. Ten surface combatants represent the bulk of the forces the US Navy has at sea in an area nearly twice size of the United States, to believe the United States Navy can solve the pirate problem on top of its existing regional commitments is asking too much.

However, the question is, can the international community make a difference? European Navies are shrinking, the Royal Navy is currently represented in the region by 5 warships, 2 of which are escorting their aircraft carrier. Those five warships represent 20% of the Royal Navy's entire surface combatant fleet. Those Royal Navy warships also represent the largest presence in the region since the invasion of Iraq. That number will be dropping to two warships over the next several weeks.

France is represented by 3 warships, and that number will drop to two over the next several weeks as well. Europe has naval commitments in the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, North Sea, North Atlantic, and all over the Mediterranean sea, and simply doesn't have the combined naval forces to surge to the region for any extended period of time, and nations that can rotate a warship to the region already do so. Canada has a large force of three ships heading to the region to assume control of TF 150 in several weeks, but this represents the largest force short of war Canada could contribute.

In this context it makes the approach to international institutions for assistance very appealing. Short of a massive surge by the United States Navy, a very unlikely scenario, the only way the international community is going to find enough ships to build an effective coalition to fight piracy is to include the worlds larger Navies, and most of those nations are in the Pacific.

Will China send ships? Will Russia? What about the worlds second largest Navy, Japan? Considering how controversial their refueling mission is, what are the odds they can forward deploy warships for a military operation? What about South Korea or Australia? Any coalition of naval forces should at least attempt to involve Africa's largest Navy, which is South Africa. What about the regions largest Navy, will Saudi Arabia participate? Is piracy a big enough problem to bring together a large enough international naval force to stop the problem? Unless something major happens, probably not.

In that context we believe there is a political element to the UN piracy discussion we are not politically savvy enough to fully analyze. We believe the Bush administration will go after a mandate specific to the authorization to take action against pirates, including right of pursuit into Somalian waters or territory, but will not attempt to expand the mandate to include Nigeria nor attempt to put together any sort of coalition naval force. However, we do believe that a public attempt to build that coalition is a good idea.

There is an interesting conundrum here. More than half of the maritime traffic in the region is either headed to or coming from the east towards Asia. The US Navy and the European Navies commit their warships to protecting that maritime traffic, and it pulls resources away from the protection of maritime traffic headed towards Europe, which is the target of the Somalian pirates. This appears to be an opportunity to involve China and Russia, if not also South Korea and Japan into maritime security operations of the Middle East. The questions are, should the West even try to involve the East in Middle East maritime security operations, and would a different administration expend political energy towards the coalition approach rather than going primarily for the mandate?

We believe the Bush administration will be successful by only going for a UN mandate to take action, but we also think a broader coalition approach better reflects the desired processes expressed in the Navy's maritime strategy. We believe there is a philosophical difference evident in the options for mandate vs mandate + coalition. A coalition that includes the East may not even be possible, but we see the philosophical question to be whether the coalition approach should be a priority. We are not politically savvy enough to determine if this philosophical difference divides politically or not.

A Ship With Few Friends

From this mornings Clips, an Inside the Navy story with the title Taylor: Stop DDG-1000 Buy At Two Hulls.

“It’s safe to say that [Murtha and I] are in agreement that we would stop at two [DDG-1000 hulls] and look at other and better uses of those funds,” Taylor said.

The $2.5 billion requested for a third DDG-1000 could be better spent on building additional DDG-51 destroyers, which have proven to be very capable ships for the Navy, Taylor argued.

“I would hope that in the course of everything we could make it clear that for the same amount of money we could build at least twice as many, and close to three times as many, DDG-51s as DDG-1000s,” he said. “That’s going to provide man hours for the shipyards, provide the best bargain for the taxpayer and what’s best for the Navy.”

There are 5 DDG-1000s yet to be built. Twice as many would be 10 DDG-51s, and three times as many would be 15. Among the suggestions, they want to stick the AGS on the DDG-51. The article goes on to quote Taylor saying these ideas come from inside the Navy. I think that sounds right.

I think it would be pretty tragic for Congress and the Industry if the DDG-1000 gets canceled and some money doesn't go to pay for a first in class frigate alternative. Rather than three times as many DDG-51s, twice as many DDG-51s and building both MMC versions of the LCS hull would be very smart in my opinion, because first in class costs are always high anyway, and more options are good.

It does two very important things. It puts the US on the export market for small warships, which would be a boost for the shipbuilding industry. Second, it gives the Navy an option for the future to build small combatants as an alternative in the low mix of the fleet.

Somalia Pirates Strike Quickly

The pirates operating from Somalia are back in action, with two ships attacked in two days. While there was some hope the French actions last week might deter piracy in the region to some degree, it appears more work will need to be done.

Eagle1 has both stories, the first a Spanish Tune Fishing boat with a crew of 26 which has been hijacked, the other a 150,000 ton empty tanker was hit with all kinds of weapons but was able to escape.

The news today is that Spain has dispatched a frigate to Somalia. The ship is probably the SPS Mendez Nunez (F104) that deployed with the Orion 08 British Task Force. The dispatch of a single ship doesn't imply Spain has any intentions to take action, and France had a much better logistical situation than Spain does in dealing with the problem.

However, it should be noted the Spanish had a major exercise a few weeks ago called Gruflex 08, that involved a rather large Spanish Naval force including SPS Principe de Asturias (R11), SPS Galicia (L51), SPS Pizarro (L42), SPS Victoria (F62), SPS Numancia (F83), SPS Navarra (F85), SPS Patino (A14), SPS Segura (M31), and SPS Tambre (M33). Given a mandate, Spain could wipe out the Somalia pirates involved with that kind of naval power.

It will be interesting what happens, because with only one exception, pirate activity usually ends with ransom money paid. Unless something changes, we fully expect that to be how this incident concludes as well.