Sunday, July 27, 2024

Stuff We Are Observing

There are three items a bit off the usual beat we want to highlight.

The Navy is a family, what happens to one of us matters to all of us, and in my life I've seen what the support system behind the Navy is, and how it has the ability to do great things. Many of you who live in the Virginia Beach area may have heard about this story. This is a Navy story. I have been told there is more information available on SailorBob, but BostonMaggie is doing her part to highlight this situation. If you have Paypal and wish to donate to the family, in particular help the family with the two young children, PayPal is set up and the email address is [email protected]. SWOSANITY you are in our prayers sir. This blog is called many things, and the red headed step child of Navy public relations is only one small portion of those things. These stories matter to us as well.

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These are the men and women of the Navy I know, or at least an excellent representation. It isn't arrogance that has these guys thinking they can achieve great things, it is confidence. The men and women of the armed forces do a lot more than a few talking points can summarize, they make a difference and impact the world around them.

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Full disclosure. We have not talked to David about this, intentionally. This is something we have been thinking a lot about, and we admit to being heavily influenced as fans of Michael Yon.

The lifeblood of this blog is the media, specifically Emelie Rutherford. Geoff Fein, Christopher Cavas, Joe Katzman, and a handful of other folks drive many of our conversations, but from our perspective what the Navy is doing outside Washington DC matters a lot more than what is happening in Washington DC.

The Navy is doing a lot of experimentation right now with peacetime strategy, recognizing the need for a proactive peacetime strategy but trying a lot of untested tactics in execution. The only media we have seen so far covering these new operations are local media of the target nation or armed forces media. The American media is absent... which is where David Axe enters stage left.

We are not quite sure we know all the places David is going, but we do know he is going on a few cruises starting in the near future that are specific to the execution of peacetime strategy for the Navy, and these cruises will be in multiple places. David is an independent journalist, he has written for a number of periodicals from Proceedings to World Politics Review to the Prospect Online to Washington Times to the Inter-Press service. He is well qualified to give independent evaluation of the Navy's approach to peacetime strategy. We intend to put our money where our mouth is and support David in his efforts to cover these less than flashy stories, because if he doesn't, who will? The Navy is spending a hell of a lot of money on deployments like the humanitarian missions in SOUTHCOM and Global Fleet Stations to Africa. Are these good investments? Without someone there to look into it, we have to trust what the Navy tells us, which is driven by their own metrics, not independent analysis.

Someone besides the Navy needs to get out there and find out if these investments are worth it, and few would be as qualified in our opinion as David. Because these subjects matter to us, we intend to support him in this effort. Read about Donations for David here, and since he is a blog reader, maybe he will put up something new that gives us more details so we can highlight that too (hint hint). As for us, we just ordered a comic book.

Disclaimer: We will never ask anyone to donate to anything we would not put our best foot forward for first.

5th Fleet Focus: Illegal Dumping and Fishing

One of the claims by pirates in Somalia is that they operate as the national coast guard. The claim is that Europeans and constantly dumping chemicals into the water, and they also legitimately protect the fishing off Somalia. Say what you want, but the fishing off Somalia is not trivial, a full boat can haul catches that run 50% to 150% more than fishing in other areas.

The UN envoy to Somalia is trying to sound the alarm.
The UN special envoy for Somalia on Friday sounded the alarm about rampant illegal fishing and the dumping of toxic waste off the coast of the lawless African nation.

"Because there is no (effective) government, there is so much irregular fishing from European and Asian countries," Ahmedou Ould Abdallah told reporters.

He said he had asked several international non-governmental organizations, including Global Witness, which works to break the links between natural resource exploitation, conflict, corruption, and human rights abuses worldwide, "to trace this illegal fishing, illegal dumping of waste."
There are no coast guards for failed states, and without a coast guard Somalia is an excellent example of the consequences. I guess the odds of forming a European and Asian naval coalition are slim, considering if European and Asian countries really are responsible for all the illegal fishing, stopping that would only negatively impact themselves. That of coarse is the other problem with failed states, they are easily exploited by others, thus reducing the likelyhood and number of participants in a coalition approach to security.

This also caught our eye.
Somalia's coastal waters are now considered to be among the most dangerous in the world, with more than 25 ships seized by pirates there last year despite US navy patrols, according to the International Maritime Bureau.
I'm surprised the IMB would suggest the US Navy is patrolling Somalia, because if they are it is a token presence at best. The US Navy does not take piracy seriously, and we think the IMB knows this, so this is probably a bit of 'flexible creativity' on the part of the report author, and not something the IMB would put out. If IMB really believes the US Navy is putting a foot forward in the fight against piracy, they are mistaken.

Update: EagleOne is also talking about Somalia. Bottom line, nobody cares.

Prepare For Casualties in the Coming Shipbuilding War

The Navy is about to fight its first war in the 21st century, and make no mistake, there will be casualties for the loser of this fight. With an expected cost ranging from $2.8 - $5.0 billion depending upon source, the Zumwalt class is the largest surface combatant constructed for the Navy since the late 1950s, but is sold as being as stealthy as a submarine with the firepower of an aircraft carrier. Unfortunately, the cloaking device was not invented for this 14,500 ton dreadnought, nor the ability to reload its primary missile magazines, and the price tag is potentially half that of a nuclear aircraft carrier or twice that as a submarine, depending upon source.

Government Executive has a short but on target report regarding the way the discussion is being framed on Capitol Hill.
A bipartisan group of 12 senators on Thursday asked Defense Secretary Robert Gates to review the Navy's decision this week to end its DDG-1000 destroyer program after the first two ships are built and instead buy older but more affordable destroyers.
The twelve Senators are Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.), John Kerry (D-Mass.), Jack Reed (D-R.I.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.). Susan Collins (R-Maine), Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), Jim Webb (D-Va.), Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.), Herb Kohl (D-Wis.), Mel. Martinez (R-Fla.), and Norm Coleman (R-Minn.). The report continues.
In a letter, the senators told Gates they were alarmed by the Navy's plans, which follows more than a decade of statements from senior service officials expressing the need to modernize the surface combatant fleet.

"In light of this apparent disconnect between more than a decade of Navy testimony and the recent advocacy against the President's budget, we urge you to undertake a thorough review and evaluation of the Navy's proposal," they wrote.
The Navy is caught in a number of catch-22s thanks to twelve years of total confusion in shipbuilding and strategic direction. Previous CNOs have not done any favors for the leadership of today, and if the DDG-1000 is canceled, with the kind of political and industry lobbying effort that is plainly obvious we will see some casualties of this war.

In the political catch 22, the Senate is essentially challenging the Navy to throw the last decade of leadership under the boat, because the Senate doesn't believe for a minute the Navy can do that. Probably true, particularly considering one of those leaders that would have to be tossed is the current Chairmen of the joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen. Does anyone honestly see that happening? We don't think the current leadership has the brass to do it. That opinion is based on the historic, and as it was pointed out to us, the common view among the officer ranks that accountability for decisions made doesn't exist once you make Admiral unless it has to do with conduct. And the Navy wonders why they can't retain the good Captains...

Another catch-22 is the Navy trying to sell the DDG-51 as the alternative to the DDG-1000. This is a really tough sell, because the argument suggests the critical technology needed by the 21st century Navy right now is AEGIS ballistic missile defense, the only technology that the Burke can do and the Zumwalt can't. The problem there is that ballistic missiles hardly represent the major challenge facing the Navy today, indeed all it really represents is the latest big war threat with the big war crowd hype. This would have so many consequences it requires its own post, one we intend to make before Thursday.

Finally, one wonders if the Navy has even considered the fallout from Thursday mornings hearing, because if they haven't, they should. It took us about ten minutes today to come up with several dozen quotes by Ms. Allison Stiller and Vice Admiral Barry McCullough regarding the DDG-1000, and they have a long history of singing praises for the ship. Lets be clear, their credibility will be completely lost on Capitol Hill on Thursday, and the careers of both will probably be done.

Short of singing the praises of the DDG-1000, and completely rejecting the DDG-51 as an alternative, it is questionable if their careers will survive the political fallout given how much political money is at stake here. Too many Senators are looking straight in the face of political blow back, and if given the chance they will have blood for this... and it won't be their own, rest assured of that. Both Ms. Allison Stiller and Vice Admiral Barry McCullough will have dozens of previous statements matched up against whatever they say on Thursday, and both will be roasted on the fire of politics as an offering to the American defense industry idol.

Gordon England was Secretary of the Navy when the DDG-1000 was developed, and John Young was the Navy's Senior Acquisition Executive when the DDG-1000 was developed. Both are now top guys in the Pentagon, they will sacrifice Allison Stiller to the political fallout of the DDG-1000 in a heartbeat to cover their own careers, even if she is ultimately nothing more than the middle man for their leadership. Just like the Navy will toss Vice Admiral Barry McCullough overboard instead of take on the decisions of previous CNOs. Fair? No way, they are the ones who have done their job, but in Washington it has always been more convenient to screw the middle men then highlight the failures of those currently in major leadership positions.

We keep thinking that the only way either of them survive the coming shipbuilding war is if their bosses testify on their behalf, in other words, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Admiral Gary Roughead. At least under that model, they can state they have changed the plans and it has nothing to do with previous leadership or previous spokesman. I don't expect either of them to do it, but if they would putting themselves in a position to leave a meaningful impact on the Department of Defense for the change they both appear to advocate leading into the 21st Century.

Finally, we don't expect the Navy to come out anything short of blooded badly here unless they make the strategic argument, which AEGIS BMD is not. The 313-ship argument that Navy spokesman Lt. Clay Doss was trying to make in the media last week isn't compelling and doesn't connect, and will fall flat against the political weight of the Senate. The FY-10 POM argument isn't much better, all it does is stall for time. That may work, but if the Navy doesn't fill that time finding something besides AEGIS BMD, the net effect is simply to delay the bloodbath.

Should be an interesting week.

Saturday, July 26, 2024

5th Fleet Focus: Order of Battle

Order of Battle in the 5th Fleet Area of Responsibility.

Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group

USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72)
USS Mobile Bay (CG 53)
USS Russell (DDG 59)
USS Shoup (DDG 86)
USS Momsen (DDG 92)
USS Curts (FFG 38)


Peleliu Expeditionary Strike Group

USS Peleliu (LHA 5)
USS Dubuque (LPD 8)
USS Pearl Harbor (LSD 52)
USS Cape St. George (CG 71)
USS Benfold (DDG 65)
USS Halsey (DDG 97)


In Theater

Ocean 6
FS Floreal (F730)
FS Nivôse (F732)
FS La Boudeuse (P683)
HMCS Iroquois (DDH 280)
HMCS Calgary (FFH 335)
USS Oak Hill (LSD 51)
HMS Edinburgh (D97)
HMS Chatham (F87)
HMS Montrose (F236)
HMNZS Te Mana (F111)
HMAS Stuart (FFH 153)
USS Scout (MCM 8)
USS Gladiator (MCM 11)
USS Ardent (MCM 12)
USS Dexterous (MCM 13)
HMS Ramsay (M 110)
HMS Blyth (M 111)
HMS Atherstone (M38)
HMS Chiddingfold (M37)

Other current OOBs include the RIMPAC 2008 exercise in the Pacific and Operation Brimstone in the Atlantic.

Friday, July 25, 2024

Sell The Strategy to Expand the Fleet

The world has changed quite a bit since the cold war when the DDG-51 was conceived, and quite a bit since the Gulf War when the DDG-1000 was conceived. When the Maritime Strategy was being produced, Mullen made it clear the Maritime Strategy would begin with Seapower 21 (PDF) and use the rapidly changing world resulting from globalization as context. In many ways, many not obvious until mentioned, the Navy has already evolved in the 21st century, but these things aren't self evident until discussed.

The Navy is currently putting bombs on target in support of the Army and Marines, successfully fielding an Army of IAs and others to plug holes in Army force structure, gaining and assimilating experience in unconventional but non-SOF warfare through an aggressive NECC, recruiting sufficient recruits, retaining sufficient experienced officers (although there is work to be done here in regards to experienced Captains), supplying Admirals to top joint and other national leadership positions (CJCS, DNI, Combatant Commanders, etc.), and not unduly embarrassing the country with horrific scandals or with unseemly inter-service turf brawls. These are great reasons why the Nation has a lot to be proud of in regards to the Navy, but these positive trends are often lost in any discussion of the Navy.

The one aspect of evolution in the 21st century not visible is the shipbuilding plan, which carries with it visibility with the American people on a higher plane than those other items. In speaking to the American people about shipbuilding and Navies, we think it is important to keep it simple, make it easy to understand, and insure the explanation is as self evident as possible. Meeting all three goals in Washington DC requires brilliant PPT skills, but it doesn't have to for communicating to a broader audience.

On this blog, we intentionally keep things simple. I have an outstanding artist who works for me, and I could easily instruct him to make this fairly plain looking blog hip and stylish, but to what end? The simplicity in layout insures fast loading of content, and the only stunning visuals we highlight here is the excellent photography we associate with blog posts. In other words, readers aren't distracted by the imagery of the blog, rather the imagery of the blog content. This is intentional. In communicating our message to readers, our strategy is to focus the reader on substance, not style, thus why we keep it simple.

We discuss maritime strategy using the simple visual analogy of a Yin Yang. The Yin Yang represents warfighting and peacemaking as two opposing and, at the same time, complementary (completing) applications of naval power.

We believe the Navy must take a balanced approach addressing the requirements for winning war and managing peace as instructed by the maritime strategy. If the Navy is to balance itself, this means there must be a commitment to building flexible forces for leveraging the sea as base to connect with the non-integrated gaps, and in this way position itself to better manage the maritime challenges of peacetime. Using the Yin Yang analogy, if black is war and white is peace, this analogy is used to recognize the white dot as peacemaking forces as a requirement for winning war, just as the black dot represents warfighter capabilities as a requirement for managing peace. We believe this analogy is self evident to anyone with a clear understanding of modern conventional and asymmetrical warfare.

The current Navy is built to fight major wars against peer opponents. The Navy of today consists of 11 aircraft carriers, 109 surface combatants (22 CGs, 52 DDGs, 30 FFGs, and 5 PCs), 2 Littoral Combat Ships, 53 attack submarines, 4 cruise missile submarines, 14 ballistic missile submarines, 31 amphibious warfare ships (3 LHAs 7 LHDs, 9 LPDs, and 12 LSDs), and 14 minesweepers. This list does not include the 31 combat logistics ships and 17 support ships.

Of the 167 total surface vessels in the fleet, only 51 are less than 4200 tons. That ratio represents 30% of the total surface force, and all 51 are unrated surface combatants. Of just the surface combatant force, 33% are less than 4200 tons, again all of them unrated. The naval force today is completely unbalanced in favor of the wartime requirement for fighting the Soviet Union of 1989 or the Iraqi Army of 1991. 66% of the total surface combatant fleet is designed to do two things very well, destroy targets on land with cruise missiles and shoot down many varieties of cruise missile and aircraft threats in the air. When talking about the threat environment of the 21st century, be it submarines, ballistic missiles, small boat swarms, mines, and a variety of asymmetric threats, the Navy is not well designed for meeting those challenges.

In keeping things simple, we liken the current resource strategy to an upside down triangle. Looking at the upside down triangle, if you were to write war at the top and peace at the bottom, then inside the triangle divide it into three parts with two horizontal lines, write Sea Strike in the large top portion, Sea Shield in the middle portion, and Sea Basing in the bottom small portion (Seapower 21). you just created a PPT slide of the fleet constitution of the US Navy today. We do not believe that type of fleet constitution matches the Navy's own maritime strategy. This is why we find the debate on Capitol Hill regarding the DDG-1000 to be so extraordinarily stupid, because the debate is ultimately about which type of battleship the Navy should fill in the top large "Sea Strike" portion of the upside down triangle, a political debate to ultimately decide if the nation should build the battleship for fighting the 1989 Soviet Union, or the battleship for fighting against the 1991 Iraq Army.

Only because of the ignorance and apathy of the average American regarding the Navy would such a silly debate ever be allowed to occur.

Now take a triangle sitting on a long base with a point at the top. Write war above the tip and peace along the bottom. Inside the triangle divide it into three parts with two horizontal lines, write Sea Strike in the small top portion, Sea Shield in the middle portion, and Sea Basing in the bottom large portion. We believe this triangle would better illustrate the fleet constitution strategy better aligned with the requirements of the Navy's maritime strategy. Allow us to elaborate.

In major power war, the Navy should be very aware by now that Command of the Sea in the 21st century is determined by aircraft and submarines. Between the CVN force, the SSBN force, the SSGN force, and the SSN force all forms of sea control and power projection are achieved. Even today, whether it is with carrier aviation in the current wars or submarines picking off targets with cruise missiles in failed states like Somalia, these are the major combat platforms at sea. This is also self evident in the way the Navy develops its surface combatant force, which is designed to protect high value vessels from air and submarine attack. The surface combatant fleet doesn't even bother putting anti-ship missiles on its most advanced battleships, because the Navy knows that aircraft will sink enemy ships long before the surface fleet is in range to attack.

However, for peacetime roles today the Navy only has a limited number of ships to draw from. The ships pushing the peacetime activities required to achieve the goals of the maritime strategy include the amphibious force, the small combatants under 4200 tons, and the ships operated by the Military Sealift Command. Indeed if you look at activities like that of the Coast Guard cutter Dallas (WHEC 716), the Navy is basically outsourcing its peacetime engagement responsibilities in major maritime theaters to the already stretched thin Coast Guard. The Navy really should be embarrassed that it is incapable of doing the mission the Coast Guard does today in the Persian Gulf, it is a tragedy of leadership the Navy doesn't see its inability to do that mission as a problem, because that is part of the global mission set the maritime domain demands in today's maritime era.

The Navy, indeed Congress and the American people in general, are under the misguided perception that the AEGIS battleship is the dreadnought of our era. This is absolutely false, and would only be true if the Navy was facing a peer competitor. The Dreadnought of the modern maritime era is the Amphibious Ship, and what we call the mothership; essentially the weapon system and logistical enabler capable of saturating the maritime domain with manned and unmanned systems to USE command of the sea, and influence that domain throughout the littorals and into land. Without the ability to saturate the maritime domain with naval power and establish what the Navy calls Maritime Domain Awareness, the Navy is unable to maintain command of the sea, thus unable to exploit its use to promote the conditions necessary for building a stable, peaceful maritime environment that promotes economic growth in struggling states.

By using submarines to alleviate the surface combatant force from having to carry the burden of major war, the surface fleet should reconstitute itself with fewer battleships and more smaller surface combatants to operate within these theater Sea Bases. In other words, using the triangle analogy described above for peacetime, the resource strategy would list submarines and aircraft carriers in the small area labeled sea strike, the battleships in the middle portion labeled sea shield, and a large number of motherships, amphibious ships, small combatants, logistics ships, and support ships filling the large portion at the bottom of the triangle to support the peacetime, or SysAdmin, requirements as established in the Navy's maritime strategy. This force ultimately represents the viable solution for the asymmetrical threats to the maritime domain, because it becomes the forward deployed persistent naval force present to deal with these threats.

It is time to align resources to maritime strategy by recognizing that in the maritime environment of today the Navy is currently in a position to fight its wars with a small number of powerful platforms at the high end, but the Navy requires a saturation force made up of a lot of large flexible amphibious type ships and a large number of smaller surface combatants if the Navy is serious about using command of the sea in peacetime.