Saturday, September 19, 2024

Ramadan Ends, Here Come the Pirates!

There are several private advisories of attacks off Somalia this morning suggesting several small boats are armed off the Horn of Africa. So far, no details have hit the news, except this one.
Iranian warships opened fire on suspected pirate boats in the Gulf of Aden to prevent an attempted hijack of three Iranian commercial vessels, a navy commander said on Saturday.

"After the boats ignored warnings, the pirates were sent fleeing by our shooting and they left the area," state radio quoted Fariborz Qaderpanah as saying. He said the incident took place on Friday.
The international naval forces are expecting a busy weekend. The alerts and warnings are coming from just about everywhere, suggesting coalition observation assets are doing their job offering early warning.

I spoke with Rear Adm. Scott Sanders, vice commander for U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, and British Royal Navy Capt. Keith Blount, the task force’s chief of staff, during a bloggers roundtable back on September 11th. Talking to the CTF-151 folks, it is impossible to measure the international coalitions influence in curbing piracy. They are clearly doing good things intercepting armed boats and donating the guns and grenades to the Indian Ocean deep, but they don't give any statistics for comparison regarding frequency of intercepts that would allow an observer to compare to the number of attacking vessels there were this time last year.

Still, I came away from that conversation very encouraged. There is evidence that coordination, trust, and cooperation is building among the international naval forces on station. That confidence and trust in each other can't be surged, as CS-21 notes, it is developed over time. In that regard, the Navy strategy is unquestionably working.

Did the vast majority of pirates take Ramadan off from pirate activity? Hard to tell, the weather before Ramadan prevented pirates from operating in their small vessels. The surge in attacks this morning off Somalia would suggest the pirates simply waited until the first morning after Ramadan to return to business as usual. Will a pattern develop, and will the international community successfully prevent hijackings? Time will tell, and this is when all of the efforts of the last several months by all the international partners gets tested.

Look for the news reports to break over the next few hours with details of the attacks.

Friday, September 18, 2024

ADM Mullen on Diversity

Very interesting piece covering ADM Mullen on Diversity. It is also very timely.

I have always looked at race as a generational issue, and I believe racism is in steep decline today. There is evidence everywhere you look, particularly with the recent discussions of racism in the media as it relates to the Healthcare debate.

I note that the charges of racism recently discussed in the press appear to lack the power to influence public opinion. This is measurable progress and itself an excellent sign for race relations. If the charges of racism continue to prove ineffective in the political debates we see today, it is likely we will see the racism accusation disappear as a tactic in politics.

In politics, people often reveal the worst of themselves and become assholes - and that's OK. America is not against Healthcare in the current debate because the President is black, they are against Healthcare because they don't understand the plan, they don't have enough trust in ANYONE in government to know who to believe, and no elected official has an actual plan in hand that has built enough support to pass. That isn't racism; that is the same pattern of American politics since day 1 this country was founded.

I read the Maureen Dowd piece like everyone else, and all she did was remind us she is old and remains heavily influenced by her experiences of decades ago. In her world, a white guy from South Carolina who acts like a jackass on national TV to an African American in a position of authority translates into racism, because she herself comes from a generation that easily forms that stereotyped conclusion of race based on experience. As I read ADM Mullen, I noted he does too. Experience trains us; this is not good or bad, it can be either - sometimes both.

As a white younger American (I'm 33) with a completely different generational view, I understand their perspectives even as I cannot relate to them. My experiences are different. I grew up outside Little Rock, AR in a mostly white suburb. In 1989, the state agreed to a settlement in a lawsuit that claimed the state did too little to desegregate Little Rock area schools. One of the solutions that emerged was that white kids in the county could go to schools that had predominately black students, and black students could go to schools with predominately white students.

The dirty secret of Pulaski County was that the county schools, predominately white, were complete shit holes while the inner city schools in Little Rock that had predominately black students had better teachers, facilities, and curriculum. In High School, thanks to desegregation law, I went to a majority black inner city Little Rock school and it was absolutely the best choice I made in my teenage years. The county schools were incubators for prejudice while the inner city schools were incubators for gang activity. In hindsight, I think the gang activity was easier to manage for me as a white guy in an inner city school than the prejudice would have been for a black student bused out to a county (read country) school. I have no statistical evidence to support that opinion, but can remember plenty of anecdotal examples.

Before I moved to NY I saw racism in Arkansas society and the damage it did to people and communities, but in the workplace like what Mullen is discussing, I have never seen it since moving to New York. I have seen racism used as a political tactic in NY, but I have never seen it used legitimately as a politically tactic in NY. I have owned my own business for the last many years, and racism has never really been something I have encountered. In IT, I am generally one of very few white American males in the circles I am working in, mostly because everyone else is either female, Hispanic, African American - or part of the foreign (mostly Indian and Chinese) majority.

So when I read ADM Mullen's perspective and Maureen Dowd's perspective, I understand it but I have trouble relating. Having returned to Arkansas and met up with a bunch of my old High School classmates, I can tell you that our collective experiences and exposure to racism has nothing in common with Jim Crow or the Watts Riots.

Indeed, I often find that the folks I grew up with who attended the shit hole white county schools ended up adults who threw off any racist tendencies they may have had when they were younger. Not all though, there are still isolated pockets of hate filled rednecks, but the key point is that they are a tiny minority and are isolated primarily because their opinions are no longer acceptable or tolerated in southern society.

Watching my kids grow up in a diverse middle class community and witnessing the often baseless cry of racism in politics suggests to me that racism in America will never again influence American opinion at large like it did in my parents day. There will always be plenty of prejudice in the world, and there will always be social problems resulting from economic conditions, but I think the story of hate based on race in America is slowly coming to a conclusion, and the story ends in triumph.

Today's diversity policy in the Navy gets interesting reactions in the blogosphere. The Navy measures diversity with statistics in comparison to greater American society, and finds that as the officer’s rank gets higher, the statistics no longer match greater society. I don't know the exact reasons, only today's Flag officers were commissioned into the Navy in the 70s, with the 80s ensigns just recently making it into the Flag ranks.

If it requires ~30 years in the Navy to become a Flag officer, shouldn't the statistics measuring diversity measure against the diversity of the ensigns commissioned ~30 years ago? It seems to me that measuring an organization like the Navy against today's greater American society is akin to statistical manipulation. The statistics that measure the Navy career system, say for Rear Admirals, should measure diversity statistics of today against diversity statistics for the officers commissioned between 1975 - 1981.

That data would be more relevant I think, because if the Navy is losing a larger percentage of minority officers earlier in their career than the percentage of white officers leaving early, that could be covered up by simply promoting more minorities among a much smaller pool of eligible minorities using the statistical comparisons ADM Roughead uses. By comparing diversity statistics within the Navy to diversity statistics of America instead of diversity statistics of peer commissioning classes, we don't really get a feel for the trend lines to suggest the priority of diversity in the Navy is working or not.

The Navy has lost a lot of talented Commanders and Captains to early retirement this decade. I'd be curious to see how the statistics of officers who retired early measure in a diversity comparison with the commissioning classes of the 80s. Finally, if we knew the diversity of the commissioning classes from 1980 - 1995, this would give us a good sense of whether diversity in the Navy will resolve itself with Generation X, or whether we will have to wait for Generation Y. After all, in an organization like the Navy where one must work their way up through a system, statistical forecasting can be done and historical change can be both measured, and predictive.

I know diversity in the Navy is about more than race btw, but the ADM Mullen article is specifically about race.

Thoughts on Ballistic Missile Defense

ID contributor Robert Farley has posted his thoughts on the BMD decision over at the Guardian.

Rob mentions something in his article that I've been thinking about for awhile regarding the Eastern European missile shield floated by the Bush administration. The reaction in Poland and the Czech Republic clearly illustrates that the purpose of the ballistic missiles in those countries was to influence Russia, yet the Bush administration always sold the concept domestically from the political position that the shield protects the US from Iranian ballistic missiles, an obvious disingenuous position. To me, that indicated Bush was sending a signal to Russia that the ballistic missile shield was on the negotiating table for the subject of Iran.

I look at the decision today and see a smart move by Gates, for reasons previously discussed, but believe the politics of this has everything to do with the Obama administration successfully trading the ballistic missile shield deployment to eastern Europe for something in regards to Iran.

France is now 'sure' Iran is working on nukes. Israel is sending every signal it can that it is poised to attack. The IAEA now says Iran has sufficient information to build a bomb. Israel is calling for tough sanctions, and suggests they will attack if tough sanctions aren't applied.

Then there is the immediate effect the timing the Eastern European decision has on Israel. All that equipment heading to Israel for the Juniper Cobra exercise in mid-October is supposedly going to stay put now. That will be useful.

We seem to be heading towards one of two conclusions. Either big time sanctions are applied on Iran, or Israel attacks Iran by the end of the year. Today's actions suggest Russia will support the sanctions, but I guess we will have to wait and see.

As for the non-political side of the BMD events on Thursday, my thoughts are on the USNI Blog: Thinking About Future Ballistic Missile Defense.

Thursday, September 17, 2024

7th Fleet Focus: On Power

Globally deployed, globally present. This is another example how naval power is an instrument of national power in the 21st century.
Following the aftermath of Super Typhoon Choi-Wan, USNS Alan Shepard (T-AKE 3) and two MH-60S helicopters from Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron (HSC) 25 arrived on station in the early morning hours of Sept. 17 to provide humanitarian support to residents of Alamagan and Agrihan.

The islands, part of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), are approximately 146 nautical miles north of Saipan.

At the request of the Governor of Saipan, Alan Shepard, a Military Sealift Command dry cargo-ammunition ship, was tasked with transiting to the area to assist the residents who required basic survival needs following the effects of heavy rain and winds in excess of 150 mph brought on by the super typhoon.
Read the rest here.

It is easy to take this for granted, and by the absence of press coverage (2 stories, here and here), we apparently do. We shouldn't. Our naval presence everywhere and the capability to respond anywhere quickly is what makes the US unique in the world today.

Global Maritime Information Sharing Symposium (GMISS) Day 3

Welcome to Day 3 of the Global Maritime Information Sharing Symposium (GMISS) held at the National Defense University. This is my third and final blog entry from this conference, and I want to use it to wrap up and convey some parting thoughts. Here they are, in no particular order. Some may be familiar to those of you who’ve read Day 1 and Day 2 entries.

• Information Sharing vs. Maritime Domain Awareness. I make this entry because I was somewhat surprised by the scope of discussions at this conference. I had (incorrectly) assumed that what we were here to talk about was information sharing as a way of building Maritime Domain Awareness, and not to talk about ways in which the entire commercial shipping industry and the entire US government can effectively share information. There was some good coverage of MDA here, but there was also an awful lot of kvetching by the maritime industry about onerous regulation by multiple US and other government agencies that has little or nothing to do with Maritime Domain Awareness, defined in NSPD 41 as “the effective understanding of anything associated with the global Maritime Domain that could impact the security, safety, economy, or environment of the United States. It is critical that the United States develop an enhanced capability to identify threats to the Maritime Domain as early and as distant from our shores as possible by integrating intelligence, surveillance, observation, and navigation systems into a common, operating picture accessible throughout the United States.”

• Who’s in Charge? This question has been asked a dozen ways by a dozen different frustrated industry representatives this week. What they want is a “Czar”, someone with the authority to treat with them on a range of issues, only one of which happens to be MDA. While this would be wonderful in many respects, it simply doesn’t reflect the realities of a constitutional democracy. We have cabinet officers and independent regulatory agencies with Congressional mandates to perform certain functions. The production of government policy across multiple stakeholders is complicated work.

o That said, when I asked the inconvenient question of a group of industry folks today, “Who’s in charge of your industry” (as in, who would a government agency go to in order to derive an “industry” position), I got a predictable answer. No one. The interests of US flag ship owners are different than foreign flag ship owners. The interests of port operators are different than those of shipping agents. The interests of the LNG industry are far different from the interests of the container liners. To whom would the Coast Guard go in order to get that “industry” answer? Just as complicated as the reverse. And while I recognize that the burden rightly falls more heavily on the regulatory side of the equation (government) to be monolithic, there is some irony in the “industry” demanding it.

• Emotion. The “industry” is not happy. They believe that government - federal, state and local—is continuing to layer regulation and requirement upon them in an uncoordinated fashion, one that is causing impediments to doing business. The stories I’ve heard this week of nonsensical duplication of information required of ship-owners just doesn’t make sense in the time of the internet and exotic databases. The local guys aren’t happy either. Port operators and local law enforcement reps were vocal in decrying a lack of coordination/collaboration with the feds—again, something difficult to swallow in a time of searchable databases and instantaneous communication.

• The Coast Guard. While there has been a good bit of complaining about the feds this week, you find a great deal of respect evinced by the industry folks when they talk about the Coast Guard. No other federal group was as universally lauded for their professionalism and cooperation.

• Collaboration. I was part of a working group today that tackled the following question—How can we facilitate deeper industry access to the maritime policy formation process? We had a great exchange, but it largely focused on lower level (tactical) complaints from the “industry” about the regulatory environment in which they operate and how to make “the government” smarter about the way it operates and the challenges it faces. We eventually got around to uncovering what was (for me) a pretty important point—and that is, that the “MDA Stakeholders Board” (a high level policy coordinating organ of the US government interagency) does not have “industry” participation. It seems logical to me that if the folks who put this conference on (The Office of Global Maritime Situational Awareness within the USCG—the Director of which is a co-chair of the Stakeholder Board) really want industry input into policy development, it should either have industry reps on it, or it should have regular (semi-annual?) meetings with representatives of the various industry trade associations to raise issues of interest.

Bryan McGrath