Wednesday, November 3, 2024

Wikileaks as an Exemplar of Now Media, Part 1

Matt Armstrong consults, lectures, and publishes on public diplomacy and strategic communication policies, institutions, legislation, and related topics. Mr. Armstrong is a frequent presenter at and facilitator of conferences, symposia and workshops around the world on public diplomacy and strategic communication, including how to operate in the modern "now media" environment and inter-agency challenges across the U.S. Government. He advises Congress, the Departments of State and Defense, and other organizations. He blogs at www.MountainRunner.us.

This is the first in a series of posts that will explore our world of disappearing boundaries - from geographic to linguistic to time to organizational - that create new opportunities and challenges to agenda setting and influence. Wikileaks, as an exemplar non-state actor in this world of “now media,” requires analysis beyond the superficial and polarized debate common in today’s coverage of both the organization and the material it disseminates. The MountainRunner Institute is working to convene a series of discussions with experts across the spectrum, including (ideally) someone from Wikileaks, to discuss the role and impact of actors like Wikileaks and the evolving informational and human landscape. If you are interested in more information or in participating, email Matt at [email protected].

In 1927, H.G. Wells wrote that modern communication “opened up a new world of political processes” where “ideas and phrases can now be given an effectiveness greater than the effectiveness of any personality and stronger than any sectional interest.”* Nearly ninety years later, this remains true with both the speed of communication and the consequences of failure far greater than possibly even Wells could have anticipated. Influence has become democratized with nearly anyone potentially capable of setting the agendas of world leaders - take for example a pastor in Florida or a person with a camera phone capturing the death of a woman in Tehran. So to has disruption become democratized to the point governments no longer need to be involved to severely impact economic, political or military interests. “Sectional interests” once divided by geography, culture, language, nationalism or ideology can be now convened and aligned with great effectiveness as the past barriers often become little more than footnotes.

Today, it is difficult and often impractical to distinguish between news consumer and creator, between mediums of information, or between audiences that have evolved to “stakeholders” and “participants.” Technology made “old media” and “new media” now quaint artifacts of a past struggle of segregation based on first platforms and then business models. Instead of “old” and “new”, we have Now Media operating across evaporating borders of technology or distance and time, within and across fluid associations and affinities, and flattens (even obliterates) hierarchies while bypassing and even co-opting traditional gatekeepers of information.

Now media is remarkable for not only the speed and persistency of information, but also in the “fragmegration” of the human environment that is at once fragmenting and integrating along new and often multiple lines. Multiple identities and voluntary associations lead to “turnstile allegiances” that may be potentially leveraged by anyone. Consider the motivations of Colleen LaRose, aka JihadJane, and Bradley Manning, the alleged leak (and thus the real “whistle blower”, a point I’ll return to below) of hundreds of thousands of Defense and State Department documents. Neither LaRose or Manning apparently acted out of ideology (in the traditional sense) or money or because of some other connection that a “loyalty check” or security clearance would have flagged.

The opportunities, threats and challenges of this new environment are represented by Wikileaks. A non-state actor with no territory or assets to seize, bomb or blockade, and no trade to threaten or leverage, Wikileaks manages to have the media and governments leap at every utterance, making Wikileaks one of the most influential organizations in the world right now. When Fox News offered to release Apache gun camera footage for Wikileaks earlier this year, Wikileaks smartly declined, opting instead to distribute the material and thus ensure greater distribution and ownership over the meme.

It claims to be a “non-profit media organization” bringing “important news and information to the public,” but any context added to the anonymously received content is not intended to create a more informed public but, in the words of Julian Assange, co-founder and front-man for Wikileaks, to get the “maximum political effect” out of the material. Paul Steiger, the editor-in-chief at ProPublica, a major non-profit U.S. media organization, recently said, “Wikileaks is not the A.P.”

So what is Wikileaks? Wikileaks is despised and feared because it has emerged as an agenda-setter, capable of establishing the grammar and vocabulary of topics of its choosing, to the delight of supporters and frustration of its targets. Today, this vocabulary is a touchstone of support and alliance (but not allegiance) with the organization: Wikileaks is a whistle blower if you support their mission or an “independent organization” if not. Glenn Greenwald’s lambast of The New York Times for its framing of the reported torture of Iraqi detainees could easily have been an attack on not using “whistle blower” as each of his examples of “appropriate” acknowledgement came from sources that adopted the label while The New York Times did not.

The effort to cast Wikileaks as a whistle blower extends to now-frequent associations and appearances with Daniel Ellsberg. The differences between the two are numerous, not the least of which is Ellsberg sought an outlet and Wikileaks is the outlet that packages and propagates the content for worldwide consumption in a way the media in Ellsberg’s day could not.

Wikileaks, and particularly Assange, has adopted a single focus: the U.S. Department of Defense. This new myopia, acquired after the release and “success” of the inflammatory titled and edited “Collateral Murder” video. Now, for example, the only material available on or through Wikileaks.org, after being offline “for maintenance” for weeks, is the latest product, the “Iraq War Logs.” This apparently frustrates core Wikileaks supporters and activists who want Assange to change his tactics and a broader focus of the organization.

For his part, however, Assange, picked a fight with an adversary that is, ironically, proving to be unarmed. The Defense Department has shown it does not know how to deal with Wikileaks. Geoff Morrell, for example, demanded Wikileaks “return” the stolen military documents on Afghanistan and Iraq. While the request to “return” electronic document was likely to help in gauging the extent of the leak, it was mocked by Wikileaks and most observers as being out of touch with the electronic reality. (Not surprisingly, the Armed Forces Press Service article linked above uses “whistle blower” to describe Wikileaks, which should be a taken as a mark of success for Wikileaks.)

The Defense Department is vexed on how to mitigate the threat and damage of Wikileaks. There are several avenues the Defense Department could approach this threat, beyond decrying the release of material as a threat to lives and limb (which Assange has already publically stated is, in his calculation, a fair cost) or that there is nothing new in the material. It also has the platforms - from podiums to Blogger Roundtables - and partners - from the White House to the State Department to think tanks - to counter accusations, distribute facts and clarifications and to address the implicit, if not explicit, charges by Wikileaks and related communities. The department staffed a “120-person task force” to prepare for the leaks, however except for the occasional denunciation from senior leadership, the only thing heard from the department is silence.

This struggle shows the department remains unprepared for “informatized” warfare, as China calls it. Networks actors (see the picture at left) are ignored while focus remains on the primary instigator. If this map (or another simplified map from a different slice in time) were viewed by a combat commander, contingency plans would be developed to engage, isolate or ignore each node (or pocket) or significant activity. For some reason, this remains out of the grasp of the department (and, to be fair, most government agencies).

Part 2 of this series will explore possible opportunities for the Defense Department to bolster its reputation and counter Wikileaks.

See also:

cross-posted from www.mountainrunner.us

Tuesday, November 2, 2024

Best JSF Article Yet

Bill Sweetman says it all.

Handicapping Littoral Combat Ship Decision

This is news, according to Reuters:
Top U.S. defense officials will probably meet this week to review the Navy's new Littoral Combat Ship program, a spokeswoman said.

The meeting of the Pentagon's high-level Defense Acquisition Board, which has been postponed several times, should clear the way for the Navy to award a $5 billion contract for its new class of modular coastal warships, according to industry executives and Navy officials.
Get ready for a curveball folks, because this will not go as you expect. Similar to how Robert Farley did a bit of handicapping on the Queen Elizabeth class carriers a few weeks ago, I will attempt something similar with the Littoral Combat Ship.

Down-Select as Planned: The current plan is for the upcoming meeting to select one of the two LCS designs, and build 10 ships at one shipyard and 5 ships at another with separate prime contractors and separate shipyards. This was an interesting idea that just doesn't seem well aligned with the reality of US navy shipbuilding. The biggest problem with this idea is how it tied the combat system to the individual hull, because by doing so it virtually declared the Lockheed Martin version of the LCS the winner by default. That means the competition would be challenged by Austal through the GAO, and there is virtually no way the GAO can say the competition was fair when the combat system competition that never happened became such an influential factor in the shipbuilding competition - after the fact. The other big problem is that if the Navy picks the Austal design, it will be very hard to find that second shipyard. Odds on the Down-Select as Planned: 5-2

Build Neither Design as Designed: The Navy is shrinking and needs hulls, and whether one likes the design of the Littoral Combat Ship or not, there is not an alternative the Navy could build anytime soon. With the added bonus of being able to obtain fixed price contracts, the Navy has a much better idea of the costs associated with building Littoral Combat Ships at a rate of 2 per year for both designs, as it was the 2 per year contract both teams bid on. There is also a credibility issue here for many Navy leaders, and canceling this program would destroy the reputation of too many Navy leaders to count. Odds on Building Neither Design: 10-1

Build Both Using Both Bids: The Navy has a fixed cost bid to build 10 Austal Littoral Combat Ships and a fixed cost bid to build 10 Lockheed Martin Littoral Combat Ships at a rate of 2 per year for the next 5 years, which was supposed to begin in FY2011 but will probably be delayed until FY2012 (with some margin of adjustment with the Senate yet to vote). I think this option is on the table with the plan being to put the Austal version on the East Coast and the Lockheed Martin version on the West Coast to standardize maintenance for the platforms. The idea behind this plan would be to use the money never allocated, and unlikely to ever be allocated, for the 11th LPD-17 and shift it over to the Littoral Combat Ship program to fill in the budget gap that gets created by adding more hulls, while also increasing the number of ships to be built over the next 5 years. The support by the Marine Corps for smaller platforms like the Littoral Combat Ship (and a future armed version of the JHSV) makes this an appealing alternative to a future more nimble Marine Corps. Odds of Building Both Using Both Bids: 2-1

Could something else happen? Sure, you wouldn't believe the rumors I have heard, but I think the best way for the Navy to move forward is to build 10 of each hull over the next 5-6 years and continue testing as mission modules get sorted out. This approach solves several issues:
  1. It avoids the certainty of a GAO protest by the loser
  2. It appeals to the broadest number of elected officials
  3. It increases the size of the Navy sooner rather than later
  4. It gives the Navy the much needed ~24 hull count (12 of each) needed to replace minesweepers
  5. It keeps both hull versions alive for exports
  6. It transforms the LCS program back into an operational testing program for innovation
  7. It keeps multiple smaller shipyards involved in building smaller warships
  8. It gives the Navy enough size for each class that there are no orphan vessels
  9. It allows the Navy to streamline maintenance for important components by consolidating classes to coasts with other new vessels (Rolls-Royce turbines on both LM LCS and DDG-1000, for example)
  10. It restores credibility to the CNO (and other leaders) regarding original intent of the program
Makes a lot of sense to me, so much sense in fact that while I give it the best odds - I think someone will find a way to mess it up.

The Exception to Every Defense Budget Rule

There is a new talking point coming from military leaders, and the Navy got the memo.
The Navy's second-highest-ranking officer signaled Monday that troubled weapons programs will fall victim to the budgetary ax as the service tries to spend its money more wisely.

During a speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Adm. Jonathan Greenert, vice chief of naval operations, said the termination of inefficient or ineffective programs will be one part of the service's so-called wholeness reviews of its plans, priorities, and budgets.

If the Navy determines "we're just not going to get there" with a program, the service will kill it and redirect the funding to higher-priority items, Greenert told an audience that included several defense industry executives.
The thing is though, the application of this talking point will be quite selective. For example, the troubled Joint Strike Fighter program will continue to be funded regardless of the problems because it is too big to fail.
The possible delays were first reported by Bloomberg on Monday. It said projections based on preliminary test data indicated that development of the planes could cost as much as $5 billion more than previously estimated. That comes on top of a $2.8 billion increase in the spring, which brought the total for development alone to $50 billion.

Bloomberg said that the versions for the Air Force and the Navy could be delayed by an additional year, while the Marine Corps model, which has had the parts failures, could be delayed by two to three more years.
The problem here is the F-35 is getting more expensive by the day, and very little in terms of detail is getting out to the public. Stephen Trimble had some details worth considering at the DEW Line back in September:
Here's what we do know: LRIP-4 negotiators will have to work hard to keep the average price per aircraft on a downward trajectory.

In May 2008, Lockheed received a $2.2 billion contract to build 12 F-35s in LRIP-2, which averaged $183 million per jet excluding the engine and long-lead acquisition costs.

Fourteen months later, Lockheed received a $2.1 billion contract to build 17 F-35s in LRIP-3, or $123 million per jet with the same exclusions as above.

Now we're waiting to see the value of the LRIP-4 order for 31 or 32 aircraft.
According to Aviation Week, %20Billion-Plus%20JSF%20LRIP%204%20Talks%20Concluded">the LRIP-4 figure was around $5 billion, and they have additional information:
As of June, the Pentagon estimates the average per-unit cost to be $108.7 million, an 84% increase (averaging the price of all the conventional, carrier and short-takeoff-and-vertical-landing variants). Procurement acquisition unit cost is estimated at $132 million, an increase of 82%. Total estimated cost for development is $54.8 billion, up from $38 billion. These figures are all in Fiscal 2010 dollars, and were provided by the Pentagon.
So is Bloomberg (and now the New York Times) reporting the $54.8 figure Aviation Week reported back in September as new news, or is this $5 billion on top of the number Aviation Week reported back in September? Danger Room is reporting these costs are on top of the previously reported costs, which means the actual development cost is now approaching $60 billion? Will the real numbers please stand up?

I have no idea how many F-35s the nation will eventually get, but for over a year and half I've been saying the decision to close down the F-22 line and prioritize the F-35 line would cost more in the long run than keeping the F-22 line open a little longer and giving the Air Force their 60 F-22s. The Joint Strike Fighter is the exception to everything Secretary Gates has said about defense spending accountability, and my bet is the new Congress will remind him of exactly that come next budget cycle. With F-18s being purchased at less than $43 million each, and F-16s available at ultra low costs as well; one imagines the Air Force could have got their 60 F-22s and enough brand new F-16s to meet quantity requirements while the JSF continues being delayed.

Monday, November 1, 2024

Election 2010: The Navalist View

As we come upon election day there are exactly zero national races I will be voting on that make a difference. The only national Congressman in my area in a tight race is Scott Murphy, and I don't think he has a chance. His record has so little appeal to his district that he has been unable to run a single campaign commercial based on his record, and he isn't fooling anyone with the negative ads. When the Sienna poll says a Republican is winning by 9 in upstate New York, that means the race is over for the Democrat.

I can't wait to vote tomorrow though, but it is because of New York state races and not the national races. Among the National races to watch, only two are on my radar: Mississippi 4th District - Palazzo vs. Taylor and Maine 1st District - Scontras vs. Pingree.

Gene Taylor is in trouble. Real Clear Politics doesn't have good poll tracking for the race, but it is pretty clear it is a toss-up at this point. Latest internal polling numbers for both sides show a tight race, and the district is heavily Republican - which could hurt Gene Taylor in a year where the wind is blowing away from Democrats.

Gene Taylor has almost singlehandedly kept the Ingalls Shipbuilding division of Northrop-Grumman in the major surface vessel shipbuilding industry post-Katrina. The LPD-17 program in particular has not gone as expected, and it has become vogue to blame the shipbuilder for every problem even if it isn't always the shipbuilders fault. It is because of Gene Taylor that Ingalls was chosen to lead the restart of the DDG-51 class, because if the Navy had their way they would pick Bath every time. I don't know what will happen is Gene Taylor loses, but I do know one thing - Gene Taylor has been the most influential Congressman for the Navy in 21st century - and it can't be good for Ingalls if Gene Taylor loses to Steven Polazzo, although if the Republicans take the Senate then Senator Wicker from Mississippi could end up chairman of the Senate Seapower Subcommittee.

Chellie Pingree is also in trouble. After leading in the polls for most of the campaign season, suddenly she finds herself down in the polls to challenger Dean Scontras. As the district of Bath Iron Works, this district always ends up represented on the Seapower Subcommittee in the HASC. I have tried my best to like Chellie Pingree, but she never left a good impression from me - and in House Seapower Subcommittee hearings has not demonstrated that she knows what the hell she is talking about nearly all the time. The basic problem for me is that she never demonstrated any knowledge at all, giving the impression she didn't care enough to even learn about seapower issues (a bad thing for anyone in that district).

I know very little about Dean Scontras other than he seems to know a lot about green energy. Given the push by the DoD to solve energy cost issues right now, and how the Navy has been a leader in adopting green energy within the Federal Government - he might fit in very well. With that said, I have not seen any evidence he would better represent Bath Iron Works better than Chellie Pingree has, and indeed he may be behind her in terms of a starting place as she at least has some experience to work from.

Both of these races are very close and worth watching as they relate to naval affairs, because they impact the districts of the nations two remaining shipyards capable of producing large surface combatants.