Friday, November 12, 2024

Change Is Always Hard

Timeless wisdom.
It is evident, also, that we must not too lightly assume the methods of former days, however admirably they may have been adapted to the ends then in view, as mere precedents, to be followed unquestioningly in our modern practice. We can only safely reason upon the experiences of the past when we have penetrated to, and laid firm hold upon, the principle, or principles, which received recognition and interpretation in our predecessors' methods. When the latter have stood the searching criticism of experience and analysis, we can confidently assert that they were a valid application, under the conditions of one age, of principles that are probably true at all times, and which we may hope to detect by patient study. But when we have correctly stated the principles, it by no means necessarily follows that the application of them will be the same, or superficially even much like those of previous generations.

There is another caution which I think may wisely be observed, namely, not to assume too easily that our forefathers hit upon methods absolutely certain of success in practice—not liable at times to failure. There are few, if any, characteristics of the utterances which I from time to time hear, or read, on the subject of actual warfare, which impress me more strongly than the constantly recurring tendency to reject any solution of a problem which does not wholly eliminate the element of doubt, of uncertainty, or risk. Instead of frankly recognizing that almost all warlike undertakings present at best but a choice of difficulties that absolute certainty is unattainable—that the "art" consists, not in stacking the cards, but, as Napoleon phrased it, in getting the most of the chances on your side—that some risk, not merely of death but of failure, must be undergone—instead of this, people wish so to arrange their programme as to have a perfectly sure thing of it; and when some critic points out, as can so easily be done, that this may happen or that may happen, and it is seen undeniably that it may, then the plan stands condemned. " War," said Napoleon again, "cannot be made without running risks, and it is because my admirals have found out that it can, everything attempted by them has failed."

Blockade In Relation to Naval Strategy, By Captain A. T. Mahan, U. S. Navy, Proceedings Magazine 1895
Worth thinking as we ponder the topic of this November 2010 Proceedings article Hitting the Beach in the 21st Century by Under Secretary of the Navy Robert O. Work and Lieutenant Colonel F. G. Hoffman, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve (Retired).

I imagine both men ran into a storm of criticism when they suggested to replace "forcible entry" and "amphibious assault" with "theater entry" and "littoral maneuver."

It is, in my opinion, a good way to begin the conversation though.

Why China Might Be Right About India

I've been thinking about some commentary I've been reading regarding the way China and India view each other. I wouldn't call this a Chinese Proverb per se, but there is a viewpoint in China that India isn't a very mature nation because they lack maturity in governance. Some might say that is like the pot calling the kettle black - and some might be right.

One of the more interesting arguments I have read for increased PLA Navy presence in the Indian Ocean is the argument India has such a high threshold for action that they won't police their own front lawn (The Indian Ocean).

I might be starting to believe that argument, and I'll give an example. That reported hijacking of MV Hannibal II took place along a major sea lane between Mumbai and the Suez canal, somewhere around 530 nautical miles from Mumbai. There have been attacks in the same area a few other times this year. See image below.

This isn't just any city in the world, we are talking about Mumbai - the fifth largest municipality in the world. In the 2007-2008 shipping year, the Port of Mumbai handled a total of over 57 million tons of cargo, including 32.4 million tons of imports and 24.7 million tons of exports. The Port of Mumbai handled 1.4 million tons of containerized cargo in 117.6 thousand TEUs. The Port of Mumbai is also the gateway for more than half of India's sea-going passengers.

I think about piracy so near India and ask myself, what would any supposed major military power other than India do? Seriously, India has the worlds 4th largest Navy and even when considering the most optimistic Navy plans for every nation, India will operate more aircraft carriers than any nation besides the United States, will operate the third largest submarine force, and operate the fourth largest surface combatant force compared to every other Navy in the world by 2020.

But pirates can operate motherships and hijack vessels in late 2010 only 530 nautical miles off one of India's busiest ports? Apparently - YES.

Think about it like this. How many attacks, nevermind hijackings, would the United States tolerate from pirates 530 nautical miles off New York City in the main transit lane to London?

Can anyone imagine a single pirate attack, much less hijacking, being tolerated beyond a single time on a major sea lane 530nm from any major European, South American, Russian, Chinese, Japanese, or South Korean port? When the ARCTIC SEA was reportedly hijacked in 2009 near France, it was considered such a major international incident that NATO got involved - and ultimately half the deployed Russian surface Navy at the time was deployed to take care of it.

When China starts sending 4 surface combatants to protect commerce in the Indian Ocean instead of two, the only people the Indian government can blame is themselves. The Indian government threshold for caring about maritime security in their sphere of influence does not appear to be significantly greater than China's threshold when it comes to piracy - and may actually be lower in the future.

We Americans may think of it as "just piracy" but it also isn't our commerce. The irony here is that India is heavily dependent upon the maritime industry - Indians make up a huge percentage of the total global sea merchant workforce and their are some rather impressive mariner unions in India - but it doesn't seem to matter. It is European and Asian commerce and both the European and Asian Navies operate a rather large number of ships compared to India. With the problem not slowing down any in 2010, and this imagery is the record, I suspect the size of the international force will grow even larger next year.

Complaining China is being too aggressive in India's sphere of influence sounds hollow to me when India refuses to commit the resources necessary to keep the trash off their own lawn. No other major power in the world tolerates maritime insecurity like piracy within their major sea trade lanes. While India may desire to own the naval equipment of a major power, their inability to exercise the use of naval equipment like a major power leaves me thinking China is exactly right to be concerned - and exactly right to be thinking about how they will have to project power into the Indian Ocean in the future.

Thursday, November 11, 2024

Veterans Day

Piracy Update

Another hijacking.
Pirates have seized a Panama-flagged chemical tanker with a crew of 31 off the coast of Somalia, the European Union Naval Force for Somalia (EU Navfor) said on Thursday.

The anti-piracy taskforce EU Navfor said that the 24,105 tonne MV Hannibal II was taken while sailing to Suez from Malaysia ferrying vegetable oil.

"The master of the vessel reported that he had been attacked and boarded by pirates in an area some 860 nautical miles East of The Horn of Africa which is considerably closer to India than it is to Somalia," EU Navfor said in a statement.

The naval force said the ship's crew consisted of 23 Tunisians, four Filipinos, a Croat, a Georgian, a Russian and a Moroccan.
Are the Indians paying attention, because this report should get someones attention. This is east of Longitude 65° and north of Latitude 15° putting this piracy activity placed very well to intercept traffic leaving Mumbai heading to the Suez.

The map above is from NATO - the numbers on the map (click for very large version) correspond to the alert numbers in the message traffic listed below. In particular, look at alert numbers 472, 473, 474, and 475. 474 looks like the alert for the hijacking described in the article above. This message traffic is for the last two weeks as to demonstrate how active piracy is now that monsoon season is over.

November 11 2010

WARNING INDIAN OCEAN

Latitude: 00°50S Longitude: 049°32E

Alert number 476 / 2010.

At 1215 UTC a merchant vessel was attacked by a skiff (white hull 5-6 meters long) with 7 peoples on

board armed with automatic weapon which tried to board the vessel in position 00°50S 049°32E - course 240, speed 17.5 knots. Vessel is safe.

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November 2010

WARNING Indian Ocean

Latitude: 11°26N Longitude: 066°05E

Alert number 475 / 2010.

At 0435 UTC 11 Nov a merchant vessel is currently under attack by pirates in position 11°26N 066°05E.

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November 2010

WARNING Indian Ocean

Latitude: 17°13N Longitude: 065°01E AND

Latitude: 17°12N Longitude: 065°33E

Alert number 474 / 2010.

At 0045 UTC on the 11 NOV a merchant vessel is currently under attack by pirates in position 17°13N 065°01E.

At 0541 UTC on the 11 NOV a merchant vessel was attacked by pirates in position 17°12N 065°33N, this ship is SAFE. It is assessed that it is the same Pirate Action Group.

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November 10 2010

WARNING INDIAN OCEAN

Latitude: 06°15N Longitude: 064°57E

Alert number 473 / 2010.

A suspicious approach was reported on 10 Nov 10 at 0558UTC by a merchant vessel in position 0615N 06474E. The suspicious approach is most probably connected with the attack on the 09 Nov 10 at 0834UTC, when a merchant vessel was reported under attack by pirates in position 06 03 N 065 00 E.(Alert 472)

The assessment is that the Pirate action group is still in the area.

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November 09 2010

WARNING INDIAN OCEAN

Latitude: 06°03N Longitude: 065°00E

Alert Details: Alert number 472 / 2010.

At 0834UTC a merchant vessel was reported under attack by pirates in position 06 03 N 065 00 E.

2 WHITE HULLS SKIFFS/MOTHER SKIFF VIEWED. SHOTS WERE FIRED.

***This vessel managed to evade hijack***

The Pirate action group is still in the area.

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November 09 2010

WARNING Somali Basin

Latitude: 01°05N Longitude: 053°10E

Alert number 471/ 2010.

At 0547 UTC a merchant vessel currently under attack by pirates in position 01°05 N 053°10 E.

Two skiffs are currently attacking the MV. Weapons are being used and fired against the MV.

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08 November 2024

---ALERT UPDATE--- Somali Basin

Latitude: 06°43S Longitude: 051°15E

Alert number 470 / 2010.

Reference previous Alert number 469 / 2010 (which now is deactivated).

At 1345 UTC a merchant vessel was reported under attack by pirates in position 06°43 S 051°15 E.

WHITE HULLS SKIFF

***This vessel managed to evade hijack***

The Pirate action group is still in the area.

---------------------------------

08 November 2024

WARNING Somali Basin

Latitude: 06°43S Longitude: 051°15E

Alert number 469 / 2010.

At 1345 UTC a merchant vessel is currently under attack by pirates in position 06°43S 051°15E.

----------------------------------

08 November 2024

WARNING Somali Basin

Latitude: 03°40 N Longitude: 047°36 E

Alert number 468/ 2010.

Reference previous Alert number 467 / 2010.

On 08 Nov 10 at 0653 UTC one MV was reported in position 03°40 N 047°36 E with crs 045° at 12 kts and is the same MV reported in ALERT number 467. This MV is believed to be involved in Mother Ship operation.

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06 November 2024

WARNING Somali Basin

Latitude: 07°34N Longitude: 060°16E

Alert number 465/ 2010

On 6th Nov 10, At 1015 UTC one PIRATED DHOW was reported in position 07°34 N 060°16 E with CRS 086° at 5 KTS. This DHOW is believed to be involved in Mother Ship operation.

-----------------------------------

05 November 2024

---ALERT UPDATE--- Somali Basin

Latitude: 05°25 S Longitude: 040°42 E

Alert number 464 / 2010.

Reference previous Alert number 463 / 2010.

At 1457 UTC a merchant vessel was reported under attack by pirates in position 05°25 S 040°42 E.

The Pirate Action Group consists of one mother ship, earlier pirated MV IZUMI, and one skiff.

During the attack weapons were fired including RPG.

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November 05 2010

WARNING Somali Basin

Latitude: 05°25S Longitude: 040°42E

Alert number 463 / 2010.

***This vessel is under attack***

At 1457 UTC on 5 NOV a merchant vessel reported being under attack by pirates in position 05°25S 040°42E.

--------------------------------

November 03 2010

WARNING Somali Basin

Latitude: 05°15 S Longitude: 043°39 E

Alert number 462 / 2010.

***This vessel has been PIRATED***

A small merchant vessel was reported Hijacked by pirates in position 05°15 S 043°39 E.

-------------------------------

November 03 2010

WARNING Somali Basin

Latitude: 03°45 S Longitude: 046°45 E

Alert number 461/ 2010.

At 0410 UTC one MV was reported in position 03°45 N 046°45 E. This MV is believed to be involved in Mother Ship operation.

------------------------------

November 02 2010

WARNING Gulf of Aden

Latitude: 13°32N Longitude: 048°19E

Alert number 460 / 2010.

***This vessel has been hijacked***

At 1237 UTC a fishing vessel has been hijacked by pirates in position 13°32 N 048°19 E.

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November 02 2010

WARNING Somali Basin

Latitude: 03°58S Longitude: 043°49E

Alert number 459 / 2010.

At 0307 UTC 02 NOV a merchant vessel was under attack by pirates in position 03°58S 043°49E.

***This vessel managed to evade hijack***

The Pirate action group is still in the area.

-------------------------------

October 31 2010

ALERT UPDATE Somali Basin

Latitude: 09°57S Longitude: 042°19E.

Alert number 458 / 2010.

Reference previous Alert number 457/ 2010.

At 0632 UTC 31 OCT a merchant vessel was reported under attack by pirates in position 09°57S 042°19E.

***This vessel managed to evade hijack***

The Pirate action group is still in the area.

----------------------

October 31 2010

WARNING Somali Basin

Latitude: 09°57S Longitude: 042°19 E.

Alert number 457 / 2010.

At 0632 UTC 31 OCT a merchant vessel is currently under attack by pirates in position 09°57S 042°19 E.

----------------------

October 30 2010

WARNING GULF OF ADEN ---ALERT UPDATE---

Latitude: 15°06N Longitude: 055°58E

Alert number 456 / 2010.

Reference previous Alert number 455/ 2010.

At 0517 UTC 30 OCT a merchant vessel was reported under attack by pirates in position 15°06N 055°58E.

***This vessel managed to evade hijack***

!!!The Pirate action group is still in the area!!!

-----------------------

October 30 2010

WARNING GULF OF ADEN

Latitude: 15°06N Longitude: 055°58E

Alert number 455 / 2010.

At 0517 UTC on the 30 OCT a merchant vessel was pirated in position 15°06N 055°58E.

** This Vessel is Pirated **

--------------------------

October 30 2010

WARNING Indian Ocean

Latitude: 12°12N Longitude: 064°53E

Alert number 454 / 2010.

At 0232 UTC on the 30 OCT a merchant vessel was attacked by 2 skiffs in position 12°12N 064°53E.

** This Vessel is Pirated **

----------------------------

October 30 2010

WARNING Red Sea, Bab al Mandeb

Latitude: 13°34N Longitude: 042°59E

Alert number 453 / 2010.

At 2201 UTC 29OCT a merchant vessel was reported on fire in position 13°34N 042°59E. All the crew have been rescued by a passing merchant vessel but the vessel remains on fire and is drifting.

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October 29 2010

WARNING Somali Basin ---ALERT UPDATE---

Latitude: 04°29S Longitude: 039°57E

Alert number 452 / 2010.

Reference previous Alert number 451 / 2010.

At 1300 UTC 29OCT a merchant vessel was reported under attack by 2 skiffs in position 04°29S 039°57E.

***This vessel managed to evade hijack***

The Pirate action group is still in the area.

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October 29 2010

WARNING Somali Basin

Latitude: 04°29S Longitude: 039°57E

Alert number 451 / 2010.

At 1300 UTC on the 29 OCT a merchant vessel is currently under attack by 2 skiffs in position 04 29S 039 57E.

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October 29 2010

Location: DENIS ISLAND, SEYCHELLES ---ALERT UPDATE---

Latitude: 03°39S Longitude: 055°40E

Alert number 450 / 2010.

Reference previous Alert number 448 / 2010.

***The ALERT HAS BEEN CANCELLED ***

At 2011UTC 28 October two fishing vessels were reported as hijacked in the vicinity of Denis island, Seychelles.

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October 28 2010

WARNING SOMALI BASIN, MOMBASSA

Latitude: 04°10S Longitude: 039°56E

Alert number 449 / 2010.

At 2201UTC 28 October a merchant vessel was attacked by a skiff with 6 armed pirates, 12nm from Mombassa, Kenya. 04°10S 039°56E. Warning shots were fired and the vessel evaded the attack.

---------------------------------

October 28 2010

WARNING DENIS ISLAND, SEYCHELLES

Latitude: 03°49S Longitude: 055°40E

Alert number 448 / 2010.

At 2011UTC 28 October two fishing vessels were reported as hijacked in the vicinity of Denis island, Seychelles.

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October 28 2010

WARNING GULF OF ADEN

Latitude: 12°08N Longitude: 054°25E

Alert number 447 / 2010.

A cargo Dhow has been hijacked in the vicinity of Socotra island. Her last known position was 12°08N 054°25E 1156UTC 28 October heading North East. She may be acting as a mother vessel in the Eastern area of the IRTC.

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October 28 2010

WARNING GULF OF ADEN

Latitude: 13°08N Longitude: 049°14E

Alert number 446 / 2010.

At 0539 UTC 28 October a Merchant Vessel in a National Convoy was fired upon by two small boats at 13°08N 049°14E. The escorting naval vessel and other military assets were on hand to provide immediate assistance.

The vessel evaded the attack.

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Welcome to the fall piracy season. As of today there are at least 30 vessels held by Somali pirates and around 540 hostages.

Vassar College Gets a Dose of American Seapower

Joshua Rosen (Vassar '13) has an op-ed in the school newspaper worth reading.  Glad to see this kind of thinking anywhere, but especially in the undergrad world.

Bryan McGrath