This morning's Washington Post brings us yet another "do as we say, not as we do" story, courtesy of of The World's Greatest Deliberative Body (a.k.a The US Senate--specifically its Armed Services Committee). The source of the inconsistency is the panel's insistence that potential DoD nominees requiring Senate confirmation divest themselves of financial interest in companies that might profit from decisions they would make in office. No argument so far. The SASC also extends this requirement to SASC Staffers. Again--bully for them. But in the Bizzaro-world of the US Senate, it doesn't seem to strike Senators as odd that the actual VOTING MEMBERS of the committee have no such requirement to divest! That's right--the Senators themselves can buy and sell stock in defense contractors at will, from a position of exquisite, restricted access to major policy shifts that impact business decisions. On Wall Street--that's called "insider trading". In the Senate, it's called a "perq (or perk)".
Bryan McGrath
Sunday, December 19, 2024
The Guns of Christmas
The weather is improving over South Korea, and the live fire drills are likely to take place today. A few random thoughts before the day unfolds.
South Korea will conduct the live fire drills, cancellation isn't an option. This is a cultural issue as much as anything, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak cannot back down to North Korean threats or intimidation or he will be forced to resign in disgrace.
North Korea will return fire. The North has made every single warning that is consistent with the warnings made prior to the last outbreak of combat, including phone calls with personal warnings (very rare). Expect return fire to Yeonpyeong island and at least one other location along the DMZ as well. If I was to guess, I would suggest the second attack vector will probably be in Gyeonggi Province. If you recall, that is where intelligence suggested the next attack would come from, and if I was in Vegas I would bet that is where KPA Unit 2670 is located.
North Korean artillery fired a number of duds during the first Yeonpyeong island attack. Folks will be watching to see if the second attack also includes a high number of duds. The North Korean guns are still good, but the artillery shells may not be. If serious shooting starts, it will be interesting to see if the South Koreans decide to take out all the guns while they are ineffective due to bad ammo, as opposed to stopping short of that step and letting North Korea rebuild stocks of new artillery shells.
I suspect the response to an attack will be measured and not an all out offensive. It is very unlikely North Korea would use a nuclear weapon unless the South Koreans actually invaded North Korea, but it is also unclear how the North Koreans will respond to bomb raids against Pyongyang.
Bill Richardson does not appear to have made any progress on either defusing tensions or the nuclear issue. As long as he stays in North Korea though, there is still hope for a diplomatic breakthrough.
South Korea will conduct the live fire drills, cancellation isn't an option. This is a cultural issue as much as anything, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak cannot back down to North Korean threats or intimidation or he will be forced to resign in disgrace.
North Korea will return fire. The North has made every single warning that is consistent with the warnings made prior to the last outbreak of combat, including phone calls with personal warnings (very rare). Expect return fire to Yeonpyeong island and at least one other location along the DMZ as well. If I was to guess, I would suggest the second attack vector will probably be in Gyeonggi Province. If you recall, that is where intelligence suggested the next attack would come from, and if I was in Vegas I would bet that is where KPA Unit 2670 is located.
North Korean artillery fired a number of duds during the first Yeonpyeong island attack. Folks will be watching to see if the second attack also includes a high number of duds. The North Korean guns are still good, but the artillery shells may not be. If serious shooting starts, it will be interesting to see if the South Koreans decide to take out all the guns while they are ineffective due to bad ammo, as opposed to stopping short of that step and letting North Korea rebuild stocks of new artillery shells.
I suspect the response to an attack will be measured and not an all out offensive. It is very unlikely North Korea would use a nuclear weapon unless the South Koreans actually invaded North Korea, but it is also unclear how the North Koreans will respond to bomb raids against Pyongyang.
Bill Richardson does not appear to have made any progress on either defusing tensions or the nuclear issue. As long as he stays in North Korea though, there is still hope for a diplomatic breakthrough.
Friday, December 17, 2024
Michael Auslin's AEI Report on The Indo-Pacific Commons
Michael Auslin's produced a superb bit of thinking on how the US should conduct itself in what he calls the "Indo-Pacific" Commons. The calls for enhanced naval presence in this part of the world have become a relentless drumbeat; we cannot ignore it, we cannot bury our heads in the sand and simply dole out equal cuts to each Armed Service as we seek to get our financial house in order. We must properly fund that element of military power most closely related to protecting and sustaining our position of global leadership.
The Japanese Are Making Strategic Choices
Here's an article from the Wall Street Journal summarizing some important choices the Japanese are making with regard to their armed forces. Clearest among them is a renewed emphasis on Seapower. Article contains a handy lnk to a 5-page summary of their National Defense Program Guidelines (which resembles a QDR in my estimation). A key line from that document:
“Budget allocation among three services of the Self-Defense Forces will be subject to across-the-board review.”
(pg 5, para 3(2) in attached JSDF Program Guidelines)
Would that we had the courage to do the same.....
Bryan McGrath
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| Three Japanese Destroyers in formation with US units |
(pg 5, para 3(2) in attached JSDF Program Guidelines)
Would that we had the courage to do the same.....
Bryan McGrath
7th Fleet Back to Sea
After returning to port following exercises with South Korea and Japan, the USS George Washington (CVN 73) has returned to sea this morning. A Navy News Service report earlier this week titled USS George Washington Returns to Japan for Holidays gave the impression that the carrier was not due back to sea until after the beginning of the year.
With the GW Carrier Strike Group and also the Essex Amphibious Ready Group at sea, the bulk of the forward deployed US naval firepower in the Pacific has put to sea ahead of the South Korean exercises on Yeonpyeong island.
With the GW Carrier Strike Group and also the Essex Amphibious Ready Group at sea, the bulk of the forward deployed US naval firepower in the Pacific has put to sea ahead of the South Korean exercises on Yeonpyeong island.
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