First, a thanks to the navy seals that were involved in killing Osama Bin Laden. There were certainly a lot of celebrations in New York last night. A lot of New Yorkers (including my room mate whose father broke his leg and uncle died in 911) received some measure of closure. Secondly, for all of the times where I questioned President Obama's policies, I cannot help but to admire his ability to deliver a speech that summed up the feelings of so many Americans.
Now, back to what I normally talk about: PLAN.
Although I'm not posting it here, the 5th 054A from HD shipyard has been launched and the 6th 054A from HP shipyard looks about to be launched. For those who are counting, 2 054 and 9 054As have entered service and 2 more 054As are launched or about to be launched.
More interestingly, we received a bunch of photos this weekend from JN shipyard of the 4 new 052Cs. I've read that new Yuan submarines and possibly more MCM ships are also under construction in this shipyard, but have not seen their pictures yet.
The first two pictures show the third 052C still getting fitted out. Compared to the start of this year, a good number of the foremast sensors are installed now (including SR-64). I think they still have to install those ECM/ESM bulbs amongst other things. I do not know what kind of work are done in fitting the inside of this ship, but it seems like they are taking a long time to get the ship ready for sea trials.
The next two pictures show the fourth 052C. From these angles, it's hard to make out its progress since the last set of photos. I do think that with the superstructure of this ship is fully in place, so it should take much longer before this ship can be launched.
The next two pictures show the modules of the fifth 052C. As you can see, the hull of the ship is almost ready to be assembled from these modules. We may have to wait until the 4th ship is launched before this unit can enter the dry docks.
The next two pictures show the modules of the sixth 052C. This one is a little further away from dry docks, but my guess is that it will still be launched at sometime in the middle of next year.
Finally, the person who posted these pictures also indicate that the area pointed in this next photo is an aircraft carrier currently under construction. Of course, it's too early to verify this information.
Monday, May 2, 2024
UBL EKIA
A few random thoughts and implications of yesterday’s magnificently planned and executed raid provided for your consideration:
-Expect further disaggregation of the al Qaeda network. While UBL’s buddies have been ducking and covering from Pred strikes in the FATA, the non-core al Qaeda franchises on the Arabian Peninsula, North and East Africa have expanded their aspirations, activities, and finances. In remarks last week Daniel Benjamin, the State Department’s Coordinator for Counterterrorism noted, “while the AQ core has weakened operationally, the affiliates have become stronger.” CT pressure must be rapidly and continually applied on these affiliates or, as sweet as it is, UBL’s death will amount to little more than retribution. The momentum and opportunity provided by this success shouldn't be squandered. This means more war-fare, less law-fare. More kinetic strikes and SOF raids, less pumping foreign aid into the personal accounts of corrupt dictators hoping they will play CT with us while they sustain the very factors that create terrorism in their countries. Yes Mr. Secretary, we can kill our way to victory in the war against al Qaeda, at least IMO.
-The Navy is well positioned to support this pressure. With few exceptions, most of the guys who need to join UBL in hell are readily accessible from the seas surrounding Africa and Southwest Asia. And there is no more flexible and adaptive force package than the Joint SOCOM-Navy team.
-Will there be another attack INCONUS? Yes, probably. But there would have been regardless whether UBL is crab food at the bottom of the Indian Ocean or he was still chillaxing in his sweet crib in the burbs. Regardless, I don’t think the enemy has the capability or stomach to pull off another attack the scope of 911.
-SOF operators are a national treasure, and frankly a bargain. For an annual budget significantly less than a new CVN costs, a group of about 50,000 dedicated SOF warriors quietly keep this country safe each and every day in more places than you could imagine. Anybody who talks about cutting SOCOM’s budget needs their own head shot.
Finally, it’s nice to see the evil doer who killed my friends in the Pentagon find justice.
The opinions and views expressed in this post are those of the author alone and are presented in his personal capacity. They do not necessarily represent the views of U.S. Department of Defense, the US Navy, or any other agency.
-Expect further disaggregation of the al Qaeda network. While UBL’s buddies have been ducking and covering from Pred strikes in the FATA, the non-core al Qaeda franchises on the Arabian Peninsula, North and East Africa have expanded their aspirations, activities, and finances. In remarks last week Daniel Benjamin, the State Department’s Coordinator for Counterterrorism noted, “while the AQ core has weakened operationally, the affiliates have become stronger.” CT pressure must be rapidly and continually applied on these affiliates or, as sweet as it is, UBL’s death will amount to little more than retribution. The momentum and opportunity provided by this success shouldn't be squandered. This means more war-fare, less law-fare. More kinetic strikes and SOF raids, less pumping foreign aid into the personal accounts of corrupt dictators hoping they will play CT with us while they sustain the very factors that create terrorism in their countries. Yes Mr. Secretary, we can kill our way to victory in the war against al Qaeda, at least IMO.
-The Navy is well positioned to support this pressure. With few exceptions, most of the guys who need to join UBL in hell are readily accessible from the seas surrounding Africa and Southwest Asia. And there is no more flexible and adaptive force package than the Joint SOCOM-Navy team.
-Will there be another attack INCONUS? Yes, probably. But there would have been regardless whether UBL is crab food at the bottom of the Indian Ocean or he was still chillaxing in his sweet crib in the burbs. Regardless, I don’t think the enemy has the capability or stomach to pull off another attack the scope of 911.
-SOF operators are a national treasure, and frankly a bargain. For an annual budget significantly less than a new CVN costs, a group of about 50,000 dedicated SOF warriors quietly keep this country safe each and every day in more places than you could imagine. Anybody who talks about cutting SOCOM’s budget needs their own head shot.
Finally, it’s nice to see the evil doer who killed my friends in the Pentagon find justice.
The opinions and views expressed in this post are those of the author alone and are presented in his personal capacity. They do not necessarily represent the views of U.S. Department of Defense, the US Navy, or any other agency.
On The Killing of Bin Laden
I was greeted this morning as I fired up my computer with an image of OBL on my political blog (my homepage), put there by one of my co-bloggers. My immediate reaction was that he had pulled off another huge attack, as I was busy working/sleeping last night while the news of his death was announced. Quickly moving to other sources, I realized that he had been killed.
There will of course, be a great deal of analysis flowing from this event by those much smarter and closer to the issue than I, but for now, here are some thoughts:
1. The President is to be commended for the courage to order this mission. Others like it in the past are reported to have been scrubbed, and while it turned out to be a success, it could easily have turned into a couple of dozen dead special operators. I remain awed by the responsibilities of that job, and think about the President at the White House Correspondents dinner Saturday night--coolly delivering his routine--knowing all the while that a team of special operators was moving into position to potentially carry out this mission. Most of you know I'm not a big fan of our President--today, I cannot help but be.
2. Obviously, the rough men who carried out this mission are great national treasures. Where do we find them?
3. I imagine the mission orders are supremely highly classified. But a couple of things seem to likely. First, there was no way OBL was coming out of that compound alive. Whether he was killed in a firefight or executed up close and personal we will likely never know--but taking him alive was out of the question. Good call on the Administration's part. As for "burying the body at sea" (in accordance with Islamic rites), I again think this was a good decision. We could have displayed the body atop a catafalque on Pennsylvania Avenue, and the theorists in the conspiracy friendly Islamic world would believe it a fake. That there is no place for them to gather and worship the body of the martyr is a good thing. All in all, it looks to me like this operation was thought through end to end in a very thorough and effective manner.
4. That this man could have lived such a normal life (not in a cave) in an inhabited part of Pakistan in the vicinity of one of their military academies raises a number of very interesting questions. Our relationship with Pakistan may be stressed by this event--and that is not a bad thing.
5. The reaction of the Arab and Islamic worlds to this event will be worth watching.
Bryan McGrath
There will of course, be a great deal of analysis flowing from this event by those much smarter and closer to the issue than I, but for now, here are some thoughts:
1. The President is to be commended for the courage to order this mission. Others like it in the past are reported to have been scrubbed, and while it turned out to be a success, it could easily have turned into a couple of dozen dead special operators. I remain awed by the responsibilities of that job, and think about the President at the White House Correspondents dinner Saturday night--coolly delivering his routine--knowing all the while that a team of special operators was moving into position to potentially carry out this mission. Most of you know I'm not a big fan of our President--today, I cannot help but be.
2. Obviously, the rough men who carried out this mission are great national treasures. Where do we find them?
3. I imagine the mission orders are supremely highly classified. But a couple of things seem to likely. First, there was no way OBL was coming out of that compound alive. Whether he was killed in a firefight or executed up close and personal we will likely never know--but taking him alive was out of the question. Good call on the Administration's part. As for "burying the body at sea" (in accordance with Islamic rites), I again think this was a good decision. We could have displayed the body atop a catafalque on Pennsylvania Avenue, and the theorists in the conspiracy friendly Islamic world would believe it a fake. That there is no place for them to gather and worship the body of the martyr is a good thing. All in all, it looks to me like this operation was thought through end to end in a very thorough and effective manner.
4. That this man could have lived such a normal life (not in a cave) in an inhabited part of Pakistan in the vicinity of one of their military academies raises a number of very interesting questions. Our relationship with Pakistan may be stressed by this event--and that is not a bad thing.
5. The reaction of the Arab and Islamic worlds to this event will be worth watching.
Bryan McGrath
Shot in the Head Heard Round the World
Osama Bin Laden is dead. Pointless to link any single article to this fact, as it will be every single headline in the world.I have heard from serious folks it was Navy SEALS.
SEAL TEAM SIX.
Naturally.
If you like to Google Earth, see picture for location. I use this location sourced to reports in Pakistan earlier today where a US helicopter reportedly crashed.
Updated image. Source says actual crash sight was on Kakul Road, Abbottabod, Pakistan just down from the Pakistan Military Academy exercise grounds. See image for road, which was reportedly blocked off by local security after the incident. Folks in the city mentioned on Twitter at the time that the action was very, very close to the PMA.
Updated Again: See new picture for compound. It is NW of PMA.
That won't be good if confirmed. (Turn out it's Bogus)
SWJ is showing this off.
Maybe it is because I am 35 and Generation X, but live White House pictures tonight remind me of Brandenburg Gate.
PS: Pakistan, thanks for nothing.
Sunday, May 1, 2024
Cutting the Dutch armed forces
I posted earlier about the coming budget cuts (€1 billion on a €8.5 billion budget) for the Dutch armed forces. At that moment I didn’t have the time to do a follow up on that piece, but here it is.
I have to say that the result isn't as bad as I suspected for the Navy, as far as material goes. The personnel cut is an entirely different matter.
The army has been hit hardest and all the MBT's will be sold.
And there was a surprise as well. The number of F-16's will be cut to 68 (from 87), but 4 MALE's will be bought. And although it isn’t mentioned anywhere, it will be Predators.
Consequences for the Navy
So yes, the Dutch will loose 2 OPV's, but they will have 2 more OPV's than they have now. Most likely customer for these 2 OPV's: Oman.
The JSS (or big honking ship if you're Canadian) has survived the budgets cuts, but 2 AORs will disappear. One was already heading out anyway, because it's 35 years old and with the current size of the Dutch Navy, we just do not need 2 supply ships.
Anyone thinking that HNLMS Amsterdam would be kept when the JSS would be ready was delirious. Biggest problem is that the Netherlands will have to do a year without any resupply ship.
Customers: for HNLMS Zuiderkruis it's probably the scrapheap, or we give her away to Pakistan, who operate her sister vessel. HNLMS Amsterdam was commissioned in 1995 so has plenty of life left. Canada is looking at the Spanish Patino class as a possible replacement for their aging Protecteur class, they might be interested, since the ships are sisters. They were the result of a cooperation between Spanish BAZAN and Dutch NEVESBU.
The biggest reduction in numbers is with the MCM vessels (from 10 to 6). With 6 we're at the minimum number of vessels needed. The North Sea is still riddled with unexploded ordinance, but truth be told, most are found by fishers in their nets and not the Dutch Navy.
Consequence of this cut is that there are not enough vessels to permanently have one available for international missions, like Libya where HNLMS Haarlem is out minehunting after the French discovered Libyan vessels laying mines. Customers: most likely Eastern European countries.
So the end result is: from 27 major surface ships to 24. That's way better than I was expecting. If measured by gross tonnage, whe're talking negligible differences. It's less than 1,000 tons on a 100,000+ ton Navy.
Defence Helicopter Command
Going from 4 different types of helicopters (Chinook, Cougar, Lynx, NH90) to just two (Chinook and NH90) is about the smartest thing to do. And while on paper the total number of helicopters will be reduced from 44 to 37, that doesn't paint the right picture.
The Dutch might have 14 Lynx' on paper, but only 10 are serviceable. The Cougars are even worse with 17 on paper and 6 serviceable. And the Netherlands might have received 2 NH90's, but those are undergoing tests at the moment and are not actually deployed on their intended tasks. So that's actually 27 serviceable helicopters that can be used.
With the Chinook fleet rising to 17 and the NH90 to 20, it should become 37. And with those 37 helis you should be able to actually transport 888 troops, compared to the 883 paper figure right now.
Conclusion
Well it might not be the future people had in mind a year ago, but for the Navy and the Defence Helicopter Command it isn't as bad as I was expecting.
The ever declining numbers of vessels does mean even less places the Netherlands can go to at the same time.
This isn't the end, because now discussions in Parliament are beginning, with left wing parties focussing on the job loss and right wing parties on the loss of equipment.
And a final note. If you understand Dutch, for the fun of it you should first read the last chapter of the document sent to Parliament and then the rest. For those who don't understand Dutch, this is the picture you would get when reading it this way:
The world isn't getting any safer, we intend to
That's what you get when accountants (the Ministry of Finance) effectively run the armed forces.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)