Sunday, March 18, 2024

Seapower in Culture: The Riddle of the Sands

A British civil servant receives a cryptic request from an old friend, and immediately heads to Germany. The two embark on the tiny yacht Dulcibella to explore the north German coast. The stakes are uncertain; both suspect that there may be military and political happenings afoot, but neither has a solid notion of what precisely they're looking for. Eventually, they discover the seeds of a German plan to mount a quick invasion of England, thus destroying British seapower and rebalancing global power. Fortunately, they escape in sufficient time to bring word of this plot to the British government, facilitating proper precautions.

So goes The Riddle of the Sands. This is very much a didactic novel of seapower, intended to put the lessons of Mahan into digestible form for the British public, and thence to have an effect on British policy. Riddle of the Sands was written by Erskine Childers, initially a firm believer in the British Empire who later became an enthusiastic Irish nationalist.  Childers served in the Boer War and in World War I, and died in front of an Irish Free State firing squad in 1922.  His son would later become President of Ireland.  When Riddle of the Sands was published in 1903, he remained a loyal subject of the Empire. The book was popular and influential; although the Royal Navy didn't exactly pursue the small boat strategy Childers proposed, the novel helped elevate concern about Germany and public attention to naval affairs. 

Mahan appears repeatedly in Riddle of the Sands, translated primarily through the figure of the mariner Davies.  Here's Davies on the British government:
We're a maritime nation—we've grown by the sea and live by it; if we lose command of it we starve. We're unique in that way, just as our huge empire, only linked by the sea, is unique. And yet, read Brassey, Dilke, and those "Naval Annuals", and see what mountains of apathy and conceit have had to be tackled. It's not the people's fault. We've been safe so long, and grown so rich, that we've forgotten what we owe it to. But there's no excuse for those blockheads of statesmen, as they call themselves, who are paid to see things as they are. They have to go to an American to learn their A B C, and it's only when kicked and punched by civilian agitators, a mere handful of men who get sneered at for their pains, that they wake up, do some work, point proudly to it, and go to sleep again, till they get another kick. By Jove! we want a man like this Kaiser, who doesn't wait to be kicked, but works like a n----- for his country, and sees ahead.
This is a great sailing novel; I haven't done much sailing myself, but the level of detail (supported by Childers' own experience yachting in the North Sea and the Baltic) feels deeply authentic. Childers uses this experience to suggest an alternative vision of maritime warfare, although he doesn't pursue this suggestion very far. Davies, our mariner, does not expect ever to serve in the Royal Navy, but hopes to contribute by carrying out a guerrilla small boat offensive in Germany's North Sea littoral. In the novel this suggestion plays out as a red herring, with the threat of invasion emerging as the central plot difficulty. Carruthers on Davies:
It was Davies's conviction, as I have said, that the whole region would in war be an ideal hunting-ground for small free-lance marauders, and I began to know he was right; for look at the three sea-roads through the sands to Hamburg, Bremen, Wilhelmshaven, and the heart of commercial Germany. They are like highways piercing a mountainous district by defiles, where a handful of desperate men can arrest an army. Follow the parallel of a war on land. People your mountains with a daring and resourceful race, who possess an intimate knowledge of every track and bridle-path, who operate in small bands, travel light, and move rapidly. See what an immense advantage such guerillas possess over an enemy which clings to beaten tracks, moves in large bodies, slowly, and does not 'know the country'. See how they can not only inflict disasters on a foe who vastly overmatches them in strength, but can prolong semi-passive resistance long after all decisive battles have been fought. See, too, how the strong invader can only conquer his elusive antagonists by learning their methods, studying the country, and matching them in mobility and cunning. The parallel must not be pressed too far; but that this sort of warfare will have its counterpart on the sea is a truth which cannot be questioned.
Davies in his enthusiasm set no limits to its importance. The small boat in shallow waters played a mighty rôle in his vision of a naval war, a part that would grow in importance as the war developed and reach its height in the final stages. 'The heavy battle fleets are all very well,' he used to say, 'but if the sides are well matched there might be nothing left of them after a few months of war. They might destroy one another mutually, leaving as nominal conqueror an admiral with scarcely a battleship to bless himself with. It's then that the true struggle will set in; and it's then that anything that will float will be pressed into the service, and anybody who can steer a boat, knows his waters, and doesn't care the toss of a coin for his life, will have magnificent opportunities. It cuts both ways. What small boats can do in these waters is plain enough; but take our own case. Say we're beaten on the high seas by a coalition. There's then a risk of starvation or invasion. It's all rot what they talk about instant surrender. We can live on half rations, recuperate, and build; but we must have time. Meanwhile our coast and ports are in danger, for the millions we sink in forts and mines won't carry us far. They're fixed—pure passive defence What you want is boats—mosquitoes with stings—swarms of them—patrol-boats, scout-boats, torpedo-boats; intelligent irregulars manned by local men, with a pretty free hand to play their own game. And what a splendid game to play! There are places very like this over there—nothing half so good, but similar—the Mersey estuary, the Dee, the Severn, the Wash, and, best of all, the Thames, with all the Kent, Essex, and Suffolk banks round it. But as for defending our coasts in the way I mean—we've nothing ready—nothing whatsoever! We don't even build or use small torpedo-boats. These fast "destroyers" are no good for this work—too long and unmanageable, and most of them too deep. What you want is something strong and simple, of light draught, and with only a spar-torpedo, if it came to that. Tugs, launches, small yachts—anything would do at a pinch, for success would depend on intelligence, not on brute force or complicated mechanism. They'd get wiped out often, but what matter?
But of course there are problems. First, the novel as novel isn't that impressive; think a David Foster Wallace level of detail without any of the humanizing characteristics found in Wallace's work. The narrator (Carruthers) is reasonable well drawn, but the rest of the characters (even Davies, Carruthers' host) are somewhere between one and two dimensional. A romantic subplot helps drive part of the main plot, but is otherwise awkward and unnecessary. While the sailing account provides some dramatic moments, there's never really any sense that our heroes are in physical danger; Davies is too good a seamen to have any serious trouble with the waves, wind, and sand. Plotting is poorly paced, with the central stakes revealed, then resolved, only a few pages from the end. Finally, a major hole stands athwart the plot; we are asked to believe that Germany would prepare, in secret, a major invasion of England, but would bother so little with operational security to allow a pair of Englishmen to wander about the staging grounds. I appreciate that the national security state of the early twentieth century wasn't what it would eventually become, but I suspect that anyone acting as suspicious as Carruthers and Davies would simply be shot, with the Dulcibella suffering an unfortunate "accident."

 For all its attention to strategic issues, the operational and strategic assumptions made in The Riddle of the Sands don't hold water. First, while it might well be possible to use small boats to land an infantry force by surprise on the English coast, it would be virtually impossible to keep that force supplied for any extent of time. Landings would of necessity be poorly coordinated, with nothing in the way of modern communications technology to link disparate positions together. The British Army wouldn't have to be large in order to fix such positions, and indeed the Germans would be largely immobile in the face of even minimal British defenses. The British Army, relying on railroads for transport and supply, would destroy the Germans in detail. Childers gets around this problem a bit by suggesting that Germany would only attack as part of a three power coalition, the others parts of which would attack and sufficiently exhaust the Royal Navy to give the Kaiserliche Marine the ability to achieve local dominance. Childers doesn't tell us who these coalition partners might be; perhaps Italy and Austria-Hungary, but neither could challenge the supremacy of the Royal Navy in the Mediterranean, much less the North Sea. Slightly more plausible (from an operational point of view) possibilities include France and the United States, but it's difficult to envision why either might have an interest in sacrificing its fleet for German imperial aims. If we think of Riddle of the Sands as a fantasy of unpreparedness, then we can make some productive parallels with modern fearmongering. Indeed, an alliance between France, the United States, and Imperial Germany is altogether more plausible than the Sino-Russo-Indo-Persian coalition proposed by the Heritage Foundation.

Childers' disinterest in the mine and the submarine, not to mention his ignorance of the aircraft, are forgiveable.  These developments, especially the latter, would help make operations of the sort envisioned in the novel impossible.  They would also tend to render coastlines considerably more defensible.  Nevertheless, the vision of the strategic effectiveness of small boats operating in the littoral still carries some weight.  The appeal to maritime capability as the center of national power, and to the seafaring spirit of a people (personified in Davies) also remains a key subject of discussion.  It's hard to say exactly what kind of modern work would awaken the same public interest in maritime affairs that Riddle of the Sands apparently evoked, but I'm pretty sure the answer isn't Battleship.  Riddle succeeds, to the extent that it succeeds, by combining an appreciation of the strategic logic of seapower with a concrete tactical reality.  This is a difficult task; it's difficult to imagine a Hollywood film selling the importance of the Littoral Combat Ship.  Then again, the early novels of Tom Clancy were remarkably detailed and popular, indicating that inquiry along these lines might be profitable.

Friday, March 16, 2024

Sea Shepherds Wrap Another Successful Campaign

Sea Shepherd appears to have executed another successful anti-whaling campaign in the Southern Ocean. "Japan's Fisheries Agency said the fleet was on its way home from the Antarctic 'on schedule', but admitted that at 267 the catch was way down on expectations. Whalers killed 266 minke whales and one fin whale, the agency said, well below the approximately 900 they had been aiming for when they left Japan in December." The Agency official goes on to blame bad weather and "sabotage acts by activists," as the reason for the lower than expected haul.

At USNI's blog, LCDR Claude Berube, a Naval Academy professor and one of the subject matter experts on non-state maritime actors, has posted an interesting interview with former Navy Surface Warfare Officer and Sea Shepherd sailor, Jane Taylor. If you want to understand what motivates these activists to risk their lives for animals, the video is worth a watch.

A few weeks ago, I was privileged to have an opportunity to talk a bit about Sea Shepherds and other maritime IW issues with Claude's Capstone class and brief another group of bright Midshipmen and faculty at the Forum on Emerging and Irregular Warfare Studies. One of the students there asked me something along the lines of how the SSCS could continue to be so operationally incompetent. As we've discussed here before, their tactics are controversial and direct actions like throwing rancid butter might seem largely ineffective when viewed through the lens of Whale Wars. But my response to this Mid was basically to say that it is quite possible to fail at the tactical level while still meeting a campaign's operational or strategic objectives. Sea Shepherds have demonstrated that truism time after time. Of course in warfare, the opposite situation is also possible. In places like Afghanistan, our ground forces often execute brilliantly, but the results don't materialize because of strategic factors that are beyond the control of even the highest level military officers working the problems.

Regardless of what you think of their methods or motivation, SSCS provides the most transparent case study in non-state maritime actors today. As I told Claude's students, it is worthwhile to pursue an understanding of the way these NSMA's operate because many of them -- Al Qaeda, LeT, pirates, and narco-traffickers, to name a few -- have more nefarious motivations than saving the whales and pose direct risks to global security and the maritime economy.

The opinions and views expressed in this post are those of the author alone and are presented in his personal capacity. They do not necessarily represent the views of U.S. Department of Defense, the US Navy, or any other agency.

Thursday, March 15, 2024

Preparing for War

In chess, to achieve checkmate you must first position your pieces properly.

For years I've dismissed the topic of war with Iran. I just never thought it would happen, or at least knew we would see it coming so have repeatedly dismissed claims that war is near. We'll, this is the kind of movement I've been waiting to see happen before taking this too seriously as a legitimate possibility, rather than an implied one.

Today, mentioned in passing in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee - without a word or question on the topic from any supposedly well informed Senators - Chief of Naval Operations Jonathan Greenert told the Senate committee that the US Navy is going to deploy 4 minesweepers to the Persian Gulf (which will double the number of US Navy Minesweepers in the Persian Gulf) and also send additional mine hunting helicopters to the region. This comes following news earlier this year that the US Navy is working on the USS Ponce to deploy to the Persian Gulf to be a full time Mine Warfare Command Ship.

In other words, the Chief of Naval Operations announced to the Senate Armed Services Committee this morning specific details about preparations for war with Iran, and in response the Senators drooled on themselves in silent capitulation. The only thing missing from that scene from this mornings Twilight Zone moment in the Senate was the CNO knocking on the microphone asking "is this thing on" for dramatic effect.

When the CNO tells Senators in a public hearing that the Navy is deploying four little 1300 ton minesweepers to the other side of the world, in any context that can be described as the US Navy preparing for war with Iran. Deploying minesweepers to the Persian Gulf isn't like a typical 6 month deployment of a Navy warship, because some big commercial vessel will almost certainly be chartered to carry the ships across the ocean. This is a big deal.

This is also what a naval buildup for war against Iran looks like.

Update: And here is the charter. Note the timeline. Basically we seem to be in a hurry to get everything in place by summertime.

The FY13 Inactivation Schedule

From NAVADMIN 087/12
2. THE PROJECTED FY13 SHIP INACTIVATION SCHEDULE FOR INACTIVATING U.S. NAVAL VESSELS IS PROMULGATED AS FOLLOWS TO FACILITATE FLEET PLANNING EFFORTS TO CONDUCT A DECOMMISSIONING CONTINUOUS MAINTENANCE AVAILABILITY (CMAV) OR INACTIVATION AVAILABILITY (INAC):

SHIP NAME INACTIVATION POST DECOM STATUS
USS CROMMELIN (FFG 37) 31 OCT 2024 SEE NOTE 1
USS UNDERWOOD (FFG 36) 15 FEB 2024 SEE NOTE 1
USS CURTS (FFG 38) 27 FEB 2024 SEE NOTE 1
USS CARR (FFG 52) 15 MAR 2024 SEE NOTE 1
USS ENTERPRISE (CVN 65) 15 MAR 2024 SEE NOTE 2
USS KLAKRING (FFG 42) 22 MAR 2024 SEE NOTE 1
USS REUBEN JAMES (FFG 57) 30 AUG 2024 SEE NOTE 1
USS COWPENS (CG 63) 31 MAR 2024 SEE NOTE 3
USS ANZIO (CG 68) 31 MAR 2024 SEE NOTE 3
USS VICKSBURG (CG 69) 31 MAR 2024 SEE NOTE 3
USS PORT ROYAL (CG 73) 31 MAR 2024 SEE NOTE 3

NOTE 1: VESSEL IS DESIGNATED FOR FOREIGN MILITARY SALE (FMS). PER REF A, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NON-TRANSFERRABLE TECHNOLOGY IDENTIFIED BY NAVSEA AND NAVY IPO UNDER SEPCOR, NO ADDITIONAL EQUIPMENT REMOVALS ARE AUTHORIZED ON THE FRIGATES EXCEPT AS SPECIFICALLY AUTHORIZED BY OPNAV N8F IN RESPONSE TO A RECORD MESSAGE REQUEST THAT INCLUDES JUSTIFICATION FOR REMOVAL AND INCLUDES COORDINATION VIA THE APPROPRIATE SYSTEMS COMMAND. TYCOMS ARE REQUIRED TO ENSURE STRICT ADHERENCE TO THIS DIRECTION. PER REFS A AND B, IT IS NAVY POLICY THAT SHIPS DESIGNATED FOR FMS TRANSFER SHALL NOT BE STRIPPED. STRIPPING OF SHIPS PROVIDES DIMINISHED OPERATIONAL CAPABILITY TO MARITIME PARTNERS AND CORRODES OUR EFFORTS TO BUILD MARITIME PARTNER CAPACITY. SEE PARAGRAPH 3 FOR ADDITIONAL EQUIPMENT REMOVAL GUIDANCE.

NOTE 2: DATE INACTIVATION BEGINS IN A NAVAL SHIPYARD AND THE UNIT IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE FOR OPERATIONAL TASKING. FINAL DECOMMISSIONING DATE SHALL BE REPORTED TO THE CNO AND NVR CUSTODIAN IAW REFS B AND C.

NOTE 3: VESSEL WILL BE DECOMMISSIONED AND DISPOSED OF BY DISMANTLEMENT. REQUEST USFFC AND CPF COORDINATE REQUIREMENTS FOR UTILIZING VESSELS IN A LOGISTIC SUPPORT STATUS PRIOR TO THEIR DISMANTLEMENT WITH OPNAV N8F VIA N86.

3. AN OPNAV WORKING GROUP WILL BE REVIEWING THE LOGISTICAL NEEDS OF THE NAVY AND THE CAPABILITY NEEDS OF OUR MARITIME PARTNERS. FLEET REPS, PROGRAM OFFICES, AND FMS STAKEHOLDERS WILL BE PROVIDED AN OPPORTUNITY TO JUSTIFY THEIR REQUIREMENTS FOR EQUIPMENT REMOVALS AND EXPLORE OPPORTUNITIES TO MITIGATE IMPACT TO FLEET AND INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS AS PART OF THAT REVIEW. DETAILS OF THE WORKING GROUP FORUM WILL BE PROVIDED VIA SEPCOR.
Noteworthy the Navy is preparing to sell the Frigates, but is not going to sell the Cruisers. When I heard the Navy was going to decommission several Cruisers early, I was sure that meant they would be sold FMS. I guess not.

Basically, those 11 ships represents an entire Carrier Strike Group and more. That is a lot of capability to retire in a single fiscal year. Obviously the Navy has no choice with USS Enterprise (CVN 65), the ship is going to run out of nuclear fuel and at over 50 years old. Also noteworthy, USS Crommelin (FFG 37), USS Underwood (FFG 36), USS Curts (FG 38), USS Carr (FFG 52), and USS Klakring (FFG 42) will all be over 30 years old at retirement. The Oliver Hazard Perry class was built to serve 30 years, and that the ships made it truly is a reminder to the sturdy nature of the Perry class frigate. The USS Reuben James (FFG 57) will only be about 28.5 years old at retirement, and I am unsure why the ship is being retired before 30 years.

For me the Navy appears to have got their money's worth with the Enterprise and Perry frigates being retired next year. As for the cruisers, not so much...
  • USS Cowpens (CG 63) will be 24 years old at retirement. She is currently homeported in Yokosuka, Japan and should still have at least 11 good years in her. The ship was in a Selected Restricted Availability (SRA) maintenance period last month, and fields the AN/SPY-1B radar capable of being upgraded to the latest AEGIS ballistic missile defense baselines with the Cruiser modernization program.
  • USS Anzio (CG 68) will be around 22.4 years old at retirement. She is currently homeported in Norfolk, Virginia and should still have at least 13 good years in her. Also fielding the AN/SPY-1B radar, the ship was expected to be upgraded to a ballistic missile defense cruiser with the cruiser modernization program.
  • USS Vicksburg (CG 69) will be around 21.6 years old at retirement. She is currently homeported in Mayport, Florida and should still have at least 14 good years in her. USS Vicksburg (CG 69) departed with the USS Enterprise Strike Group this week on what is scheduled to be her last deployment. Also fielding the AN/SPY-1B radar, the ship was expected to be upgraded to a ballistic missile defense cruiser with the cruiser modernization program.
  • USS Port Royal (CG 73) will be around 20.3 years old at retirement. She is currently homeported in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii and should still have at least 15 good years in her. USS Port Royal (CG 73) ran aground in February 2009 and a great deal of money was spent repairing the ship over 7 months from the damage of that incident, and an additional $14 million was spent at the end of 2010 repairing cracks found in the ships hull. It is unclear if the ship is still suffering from serious problems related to that grounding incident, or simply a product of poor maintenance by the Navy. USS Port Royal (CG 73) is one of a handful of existing US Navy AEGIS Cruisers with Ballistic Missile Defense capability.
In my opinion, unless there are serious undisclosed material condition problems on these ships, this is a Bullshit Popsicle. The over 500 VLS cell missile capacity of these 4 warships exceed the combined missile capacity of the Royal Navy, the French Navy, the Italian Navy, the Spanish Navy, the Dutch Navy, the German Navy, the Turkish Navy, or the Danish Navy. These four ships are about equal in total missile capacity to the existing surface combatant force of the Royal Navy today.

These ships have a decade of life in them and were on the verge of modernization towards becoming four of the most powerful surface combatants in the history of naval warfare - all four for less than half a billion dollars. When the reality is the Navy couldn't spend 6x that much money to build even one of these ships new today, and all of these ships can serve at least a decade, the retirement of these ships at a time the Navy has scarce money for new ships, and is already short on capable warships, makes no sense at all to me.

I privately hope these ships are legitimate pieces of rusted crap behind the scenes, because if they aren't, the Navy is retiring good ships way too early. It would be a tragic waste of taxpayer investment if Congress allowed the Navy to throw taxpayer investment away so casually.

State of Texas Stands Up A Naval Riverine Squadron

The drug related violence on the US southern border far exceeds the violence in Syria, but I don't see any media coverage calling for military action in Mexico.

I am not sure what I think of this, except I note it as an interesting development worthy of blog discussion.
Texas unveiled the second of six new 'interceptor' gunboats on Thursday, similar to Navy swift boats that plied the rivers of Vietnam during the Vietnam War, to patrol the waterways of the Mexico border.

The Texas Department of Public Safety, which oversees the Texas Highway Patrol and the Texas Rangers, said the 34-foot shallow water crafts would be deployed on the Rio Grande and the Intercoastal Waterway, which separates the Texas mainland from Padre Island.

"They have night vision capabilities, they have ballistic shielding, and the first couple of boats have fully automatic machine guns," department spokesman Tom Vinger told Reuters.

Texas Governor Rick Perry has repeatedly called on the Obama administration to send National Guard troops to boost security on the Texas-Mexico border, which is heavily trafficked by often gun-toting drug smugglers from Mexico.

Vinger said the boats would mainly patrol the Rio Grande, and would be geared toward stopping smugglers of drugs, weapons and illegal immigrants.

Someone educate me, does the National Guard have this type of capability? What exactly are the capabilities of the US Naval militia today?

While this is a traditional naval mission, I do believe the Constitution would disallow the US Navy from conducting this type of activity within US territorial borders unless the nation was at a state of war with Mexico - which we are not. I could be wrong on that though, I am not an Constitutional expert nor did I sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night.