Same Lyrics, Different Beat

The plan is to create chaos and force political rivals to work together as they struggle to wrap their mind around what is happening. The plan includes ignoring laws and discarding good governance to achieve desired political objectives. The plan is to create as much fear and uncertainty as possible to cloud the judgment of the various parties involved. The hope is that by creating enough chaos everyone eventually gets tired and agrees to concessions.

This is North Korea's plan, right?

Nope. This looks to be Barack Obama's plan with the FY14 defense budget sent to Congress. Now political rivals, no not China and the US, but Republicans and Democrats - must find a way to work together as they struggle to wrap their mind around a budget that ignored - outright - the statutes related to sequestration. The last couple years suggest that's unlikely.

This is the worst possible way to govern, but good governance towards stability that would save the taxpayer money be damned, because political objectives must be met - the primary political objective apparently being to avoid making tough choices. Congress will fight it out, eventually get tired (probably sometime in Q2 next fiscal year), and will concede to concessions.

Don't tell me North Korea is acting irrationally unless you are ready to say the same about the way the President is handling sequestration. North Korea is playing games with the lives of others in the region, but Barack Obama is playing games with the jobs of Americans. Either way, the objective is political instability until everyone is worn out.

Kim Jong Un and Barack Obama are basically executing the same political strategy under different contexts. Worth noting that Kim Jong Un will likely ultimately lose because the world elites are not stupid and refuse to put up with people who create dangerous instability, but Barack Obama will likely ultimately win because American elites choose to act stupid and will put up with a President who creates dangerous instability.

Thinking Americans might want to ask themselves why the President of the United States is executing political strategies and tactics in America targeted at Congress that have everything in common with the political strong arm tactics being used by North Korea today, and whether that political standard is good enough.

Asia Pacific Integrated Air and Missile Defense

I will be a panelist at today's AUSA LANPAC 2013 Symposium Panel entitled "Integrated Air and Missile Defense in the Pacific Region".  It will be livestreamed here, with our panel beginning at 2:40 PM Eastern time.  Although I will be focusing on land based IAMD forces, implications for the Navy are easily discerned.

Bryan McGrath

Post Vacation Links

Some bits that may be of interest:

• Colin Snider and I talked about Maggie Thatcher's legacy in Latin America, especially how the conflict is remembered in Argentina:  
•  Along similar lines, some enduring strategic (as opposed to tactical and operational) lessons of the Falklands War. 
• Why accidental war on the Korean Peninsula is unlikely. 
•  Doubt that this will be of interest to anyone who's not a political scientist, but some thoughts on blogging and the discipline. 
• And in case you're interested, this is the latest iteration of our work on intellectual property and military diffusion.

Joint Warrior 131 - Order Of Battle

From 15-25 April the largest military excercise in Western Europe will be held in Scotland.

Around 12,500 personnel from 13 countries will be involved. And apart from around 40 aircraft (Typhoons, Tornado's, Rafale's, Super Etendards, EC2 Hawkeye, Sentry E3D, CP-140 Aurora's and other MPA's and tanker aircraft) there will also be a huge naval presence.

Here's a list of participants I found.

Belgium
BNS Bellis (M 916)

BNS Primula (M 924)

Canada

HMCS Iroquois (DDG 280)

HMCS St Johns (FFH3 40)

HMCS Preserver (AOR 510)

Denmark

HDMS Absalon (L 16)

HDMS Esbern Snare (L 17)

HDMS Vaedderen (F 359)

France

FS Primauguet (D 644)

FS Emeraude (S 604)

FS Marne (A 630)

Germany

FGS Bremen (F 207)

FGS Emden (F 210)

FGS Hessen (F 221)

FGS Weilheim (M 1059)

FGS Datteln (M 1068)

FGS Ueberherrn (M 1095)

FGS Werra (A 514)

FGS Frankfurt am Main (A 1412)

FGS Rhon (A 1443)

The Netherlands

HNLMS Evertsen (F 805)

HNLMS Rotterdam (L 800)

HNLMS Bruinvis (S 810)

HNLMS Urk (M 861)

HNLMS Vlaardingen (M 863)

HNLMS Luymes (A 803)

HNLMS Mercuur (A 900)

Norway

HNOMS Gnist (P 965)

HNOMS Steil (P 963)

HNOMS Uthaug (S 304)

HNOMS Karmoey (M 341)

HNOMS Hinnoey (M 343)

HNOMS Rauma (M 352)

HNOMS Valkyrien (A 535)

Poland

ORP Czernicki (511)

ORP Czajka (624)




Sweden

HSwMS Sundsvall (K 24)

HSwMS Visby (K 31)

United Kingdom

HMS Illustrious (R 06)

HMS Bulwark (L 15)

HMS Diamond (D 34)

HMS Sutherland ( F 81)

HMS Richmond (F 239)

HMS Montrose (F 236)

HMS Westminster (F 237)

HMS Talent (S 92)

HMS Brocklesby (M 33)

HMS Chiddingfold (M 37)

HMS Hurworth (M 39)

HMS Pembroke (M 107)

HMS Grimsby (M 108)

HMS Echo (H 87)

RFA Fort Austin (A 386)

RFA Lyme Bay (L 3007)

USA

USS Stout (DDG 55)

USS The Sullivans (DDG 68)

USS Bainbridge (DDG 96)

USS De Wert (FFG 45)


USNS John Lenthall (T-AO 189)

Nine Month Deployment Barely Worth Notice

News here of the return of USS JASON DUNHAM (DDG 109) from its nine-month maiden voyage.  Nine months. This is happening more and more frequently, and average deployment lengths continue to creep up.

We either need a bigger fleet or fewer things to do.  Perhaps both. But not neither.

Some will look at this and compare it to the multiple, longer deployments made by US ground forces in the past decade.  There is no question, they have borne a mighty load, a wartime load.  Yet we should not forget that regular out of area deployments have been what the Navy does since there has been a Navy.   And long after we have pulled out of Afghanistan, Navy and Marine Corps forces will routinely deploy around the world in support of our national interests.

Consequential decisions are at hand.  Secretary Hagel said many things in his speech at NDU the other day to make me believe he is interested in fundamental strategic reform.  We shall see.

Bryan McGrath