![]() |
A better analogy in photography for 2013 in the US Navy would be hard to find! |
“In another 12 to 18 months, we will have sailors and Marines deploy without all the training they need,” Navy Secretary Ray Mabus said in a Wednesday speech before students and faculty at the National Defense University in Washington. “Through no fault of their own, they will be less ready to face whatever comes over the horizon.”Mabus is talking about operations and maintenance. The key point is that all year long the uniformed Navy has been telling Congress everything is fine with operations and maintenance, indeed the uniformed Navy is sticking to their story.
“We are rapidly reaching the point where no amount of hard work or innovation or anything else will allow us to get this training back,” Mabus said, casting the service’s possible $14 billion shortfall for the upcoming fiscal year in the starkest possible terms.
Mabus also said that the scale and indiscriminate nature of the sequester cuts could slow the Navy’s response in a crisis, such as that unfolding after Syria’s reported use of chemical weapons. A force of destroyers, amphibious ships and two carrier strike groups were in the region, ready to respond immediately.
Because of the sequester cuts, a similar response “may be limited or unavailable in the future,” Mabus said, noting that it will also reduce steaming days, flying hours and other vital training that the fleet depends on to prepare for deployment.
Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jon Greenert also spoke about the impacts last week with many new specifics on their possible impacts. But Greenert stopped short of casting them in as harsh a light, instead saying that his priority is “that those ships we put forward are ready to go, no matter what the number in the Navy are.”The SECNAV is pushing a new issue, and as of September 11, 2024 the CNO apparently wasn't ready to push that issue. The problem is, the CNO has been wrong on the sequestration issue all year and basically lost a year where he could have been pressing this issue. It is unclear if the CNO is following orders from somewhere else or simply had a budget strategy that ignored the long term effects of sequestration, but all year long the uniformed Navy has been acting like sequestration is going away. It isn't.
As I have been watching the FY14 budget debate unfold, it is not clear at all to me what the objective of the CNO's script has been, but it is clear to me the approach has been ineffective and the objective has not been achieved. Lets review what we can safely call 'the wasted year' for a second.
First, the CNO made clear early on that the priority would be the next ships out for deployment, and budget resources are being expended to maintain a very high operational tempo at the expense of ships staying home. Nearly all deployment reductions have come at the low end, basically frigates for SOUTHCOM, and there has been nearly zero reduction of major force deployments to CENTCOM or PACOM. Even though the US has completely withdrawn from Iraq, and is in the process of winding down in Afghanistan, the US Navy today is operating two carrier strike groups and an amphibious ready group in the 5th fleet AOR.
For what purpose could the US Navy possibly need that much presence in the 5th fleet given the budget situation? It's something like 2 CVNs, 1 LHD, 1 LSD, 3 CGs, and 6-8 DDGs in the Middle East right now. For what? Yemen? Somalia? Iran? Surely that much firepower isn't needed for Afghanistan today, is it?
The answer is not Syria, because Syria is 6th fleet where the US Navy has another 4 DDGs and an unknown number of submarines loitering near Cyprus.
The US Navy is throwing everything in the budget to keep massive force levels in the Middle East when the threat to US interests at this point in time is marginal, at best. The worst part is that while the US is sending ships on schedule, none of the ships being deployed know when they are coming home - and the schedule for returning home from deployment is fubar. Leadership is pushing material, and more important manpower, to the brink for purposes of sustaining an operational strategy with no obvious alignment in support of threatened national interests.
What exactly is the strategic objective of the CNO's current operational tempo and operational posture in this budget environment? How can anyone objectively call the current Navy OPTEMPO wise given the lack of an apparent threat and the impacts of that OPTEMPO on man and material? All I see is the wear and tear on ships being deployed longer than intended, ships that will not have maintenance funded fully upon their return home. Even worse, I am seeing ships deploy and crews unable to make any plans at all because their return date is a moving target - always towards longer deployments. Always.
With all due respect to the CNO, his stated commitment to sailors in his own sailing directions lacks credibility in action. It is one thing to push the fleet during war, but the Navy today is being pushed for a political objective - to prove to 'no one who is listening' the value of the fleet by simply being forward deployed. Want someone in Washington to know what the value of a forward deployed Navy is? Bring the majority of the fleet home and let the President get told "no" a few times. President's don't like that answer.
Entire Air Wings are not flying today, already, and ships that return from extended, lengthy, and seemingly never ending deployments are not fully funded for maintenance. There is already a problem with operations and maintenance budgets before we even get to discussing the future of sequestration, because operations are being extended for each individual deployment and the maintenance money is not there already. The CNO is a submariner who has spent decades in a community that has always been fully funded to meticulous detail, so perhaps he assumes that is how it is for everyone in the Navy? I dunno, but I do know that the strategy all year to tell Congress that everything is just fine has been ineffective at best, and a failure as a budget strategy by any definition.
Which raises the question, was this post by CHINFO on sequestration a sign that the CNO is ready to pivot his position and start being honest about the impacts of sequestration?
Well, what about reprogramming authority? Wouldn’t that help? Sure it would. We’d love to be able to move some money around. But even with reprogramming authority under an FY14 Appropriations Bill - which, by the way, we don’t have yet - sequestration would cut our operations and maintenance account by $4.6 billion instead of $5.6 billion. That’s the account we use to keep those ships out there and those Sailors fully trained.The million dollar question this week is whether CHINFO is off script because his argument supports SECNAV, or is he on script and the CNO is ready to get in line with SECNAV on this new approach to the sequestration issue? Time will tell.
A cut of this size to that account - without reprogramming authority - will delay more than half our ship maintenance availabilities next year and reduce our training to “just in time,” meaning our Sailors won’t be ready until just before they leave.
In fact, we’ll have to shut down two airwings for three months each and limit four others to only the minimum level of flying, the “tactical hard deck.”
Not only will we have fewer ships, subs and aircraft ready to go if needed, we’ll also lose $4.5 billion next fiscal year from the accounts we use to buy new ones.
The point is, the CNO's leadership on messaging has been a mess all year long, and credit the SECNAV, not the CNO, for carrying the conversation forward. In March VADM Copeman's memo got leaked and suddenly a real opportunity to discuss force structure changes that might be necessary under sequestration. Nope, CNO doesn't lead that conversation, indeed he works hard to insure that conversation goes no where. Then when Captain Hendrix releases that CNAS paper on aircraft carriers, again a perfect opportunity to discuss what sequestration means pops up. Nope. All I see is NAVAIR circle the wagons around both the CVN and the JSF, which is ironic because nothing makes the CVN look like a waste of money better than the JSF.
Then last week the Navy sends a two star to float an idea for the first time ever in public before Congress - a $4 billion annual supplemental package to fund the Ohio-class replacement. CNO has had all year to bring up this important issue publicly, but has instead waited until September 12, 2024 to have a two-star raise the issue in a Congressional hearing? This is a huge topic and is just as much part of the sequestration issue as anything else. Did a two star just go off script, or is this just another poor messaging decision in a year that is full of poor messaging decisions? It is ironic the best messaging the Navy had all year was when an active duty Captain was attacking the value of aircraft carriers, because despite Captain Hendrix's argument, the aircraft carrier not only won the argument, but the value of the aircraft carrier became a conversation topic to a much broader audience. Was that the CNO starting a conversation? Hard to believe considering CNO has spent all year trying to control all the conversations, and doing so without making a notable positive influence anyway.
It is shocking how much of a wasted year this has been for the Navy to make a case for seapower, and the only notable change in the Navy this year was the retirement of Bob Work. It is surprising, to say the least, that his replacement is Jo Ann Rooney, because the Navy is going from an Undersecretary of the Navy who is one of the most respected voices on seapower in the 21st century to someone who once worked a few months in the DoD and may or may not have ever actually been onboard an active Navy ship in her life, and almost certainly never before 2013.
The Department of the Navy has the biggest single budget in Department of Defense, and if you break up the DoD budget into individual departments, the Department of the Navy has the biggest budget in the federal government. Why would anyone in the Senate accept someone as unqualified as Jo Ann Rooney as the #2 in the Navy and claim with credibility to actually care? I'm sure Jo Ann Rooney is a very nice person, and everyone says she did a great job as Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness, but she simply isn't qualified to be UnderSecNav.
This means SECNAV has no choice, Mabus has to step up and be the vocal advocate of seapower because no support at the UnderSecNav position is apparently coming his way, and CNO has been ineffective in this role all year long. CNO needs to step up too, because 2013 is memorable only for the opportunities lost with the budget, the plans that have not worked, and political moves at the fleet operational level that make very little sense strategically in context of sequestration of which nowhere exists political will to change. It is really weird that at the end of FY13 I have a better idea what the CNO doesn't want than I do regarding what the CNO wants. How many serious, consequential decisions were made this year that have significant long term impact for the Navy?
Zero.
Since day 1 the CNO stump speech has been about hard choices. Yet, the operational tempo has not fundamentally changed, and the force structure being procured has not fundamentally changed. Meanwhile the Navy has taken consistent budget cuts, and now is taking additional budget cuts in the form of sequestration. Is the CNO surrounded by yes men, because after years of discussing hard choices, no one has apparently pointed out to the CNO that he has yet to make any hard choices. The CNO's decisions have primarily involved low hanging fruit - also known as the easy, obvious decisions because there were no options. I think everyone accepts that there are nothing but bad choices, but it is better to transparently make bad choices when all choices are bad than to make no choices at all.
Sequestration will make everything much harder for the Navy, and the Navy did as little as possible this year to prepare itself for the pain in future years. All of the pain the Navy felt in the second half of FY2013 was basically pain incurred by failing to make any hard choices the first half of FY2013. Be sure to read this very important contribution on the issue of sequestration by Christine Fox that came out Tuesday. Bottom line, unless the process gets fixed by Congress, which is unlikely, and the DoD gets to decide how to spend money on defense, the arbitrary approach by Congress is going to hit the DoD like a sledgehammer.
What makes Christine Fox's argument so good? For starters, she never actually complains about the size of the cut to the defense budget, she is only truly ranting against the arbitrary way the cut must be implemented due to Congressional action and inaction. More to the point, Christine Fox articulates the issues of sequestration very well, and without directly saying it - makes it crystal clear that right now Congress is destroying the DoD in ways adversaries have been incapable of doing in the last 6 decades.
One final thought... the worst kept secret in Washington DC is that Bob Work's replacement would be a woman. Some have a problem with that, but I don't. How is it possible the President looked far and wide to find a woman to be UnderSecNav, and picks someone as unqualified as Jo Ann Rooney? Why would he pass up on the numerous qualified women options out there, particularly someone as eminently qualified as Christine Fox?
What I have a problem with is that no President should ever get political points for hiring a woman when that is the explicit and well known objective of an appointment (in this case, in response to legitimate criticism regarding the lack of women appointments) when in fact the woman hired isn't qualified for the job, and legitimately qualified women are being passed up for the job.
Sorry, but the President doesn't advance women's issues in the workplace when he appoints someone absent the resume that merits a position when also passing up on highly qualified women for the same job - in fact the exact opposite message is sent than the one he is seeking political credit for when the President does that. This isn't the first time the President has passed up on an eminently qualified female candidate for a defense appointment this year and selected someone with far less qualifications, and yes I'm speaking of Michelle Fourney who was qualified by any definition and Chuck Hagel, whose resume by comparison was thin - indeed paper thin.