Monday, February 16, 2024

CIMSEC's Forum For Authors and Readers

ID readers in and around the National Capital Region are invited to attend next Thursday's "Forum for Authors and Readers," hosted by the Center for International Maritime Security. The event's keynote address will be given by LCDR BJ Armstrong, naval aviator and author of 21st Century Mahan and 21st Century Sims.   
In a line up determined by CIMSEC's voting readership, six other speakers will engage with the audience on their recent works:
I will be there and look forward to seeing you there too! 
-Chris
Time: February 26, 5:00 - 7:30 PM (snacks and drinks will be provided)
Location: Steptoe & Johnson, LLP, 1330 Connecticut Avenue NW, Washington, DC. Nearest Metro: Dupont Circle. 
Please RSVP if you are planning to attend.
Follow the event live on social media at #CFAR15. 

Friday, February 13, 2024

Fat Leonard and USS COLE

There is little chance that I will wrap myself in great honor with this post, but I render it in order to add some context to a situation that appears to be about to blow up, and blow up big time.  I will do so by making an admittedly strained comparison between the tragic terror bombing of the USS COLE (DDG 67) in 2000 and the "Fat Leonard" scandal now approaching its climax.  I will not bore you with the details of the Fat Leonard issue, as you can Google to your hearts delight should you be ill-informed.  I will not recount what happened to COLE, as your reading this blog suggests you already know the story.
Mr. Leonard

Where the comparison is apt is at the level of local knowledge or lack of it, the Commanding Officer of a ship (or Battle Group, etc) based in the U.S. has when operating forward, and the degree to which CO's and others must place their trust in the persistent network of contractors, vendors, and chandlers as they negotiate the world of forward based logistics in an era of light footprints and a dangerously lean logistics force.  No, this is not yet another screed from me that the fleet is too small and that we need more oilers and logistics ships.  It is merely a reminder that our globally dispersed Navy is reliant on networks of providers and a skeleton force of U.S. Navy personnel to ensure they are provisioned and maintained while forward.

The CO of the USS COLE was, in a series of decisions that bring dishonor upon  the Senate, the Navy, and former Virginia Senator John Warner, was denied due course promotion to Captain and ultimately retired after several years of hoping the decision would be reversed.  Warner held entire promotion lists hostage in order to placate a small but noisy constituency of aggrieved COLE families who believed that he should be held personally responsible for what was without question, an act of war.  To refresh memories, COLE was heavily damaged when a garbage scow which tied up alongside, blew up.  Here is where the Fat Leonard comparison comes in.

COLE Memorial
COLE's CO, Kirk Lippold, existed at the ragged edge of an intricate network of supply and maintenance that ensure our forward deployed ships are supplied and ready for action.  It is administered largely by Navy logisticians, who are largely part of the Navy's Supply Corps.  I am certain Lippold prepared his crew and his ship for deployment by doing what we all did in that position, and by my reading, he did it extraordinarily well.  He ensured that they were ready operationally.  He ensured that the crew understood the environment, the threats, the friendlies, the cultures, the religions, and the geography.  He did all that was humanly possible to ensure that his crew could competently operate in what was without question, the most demanding operational environment of its day--but the plain truth of the matter was that he or anyone else in his position simply had to trust that the larger network--administered by people he did not know and who were not responsible to him--had done the necessary spadework over time to ensure that logistics services would be provided on time and at the place of their need, by a vendor not intent on terror.

The CO of a ship writes a message days before entering a port telling this network what he needs. The number of addees on these messages is staggering, as the pie is often divided many ways.  One of the things he asks for is solid waste removal.  He has NO idea who will do this service, how they will provide it, what their performance history is, what they will do with the garbage once it is passed, or whether they intend to blow themselves up when they are alongside.  He relies on the forward deployed network of supply and logistics to have done due diligence on any service provider, and even then, absolute security cannot be provided in the face of determined terrorists (read this as saying that I am not blaming the network on COLE's bombing.  I am saying that blaming COLE's CO is ridiculous on its face).  Most of the time, we roll into port, we get the fuel, parts, groceries we need, we meet a husbanding agent and maybe someone from NCIS, perhaps someone with tours and activities for the crew--it is quite a show, but one that is almost entirely orchestrated from the outside. The numbered fleet staff and the "local" naval infrastructure oversees it and we (the ships--I'll throw myself back into this mix for the time being) fall in on it.  In the case of the COLE, this reliance ultimately proved fatal.  In the case of the Fat Leonard Scandal, it will prove devastating to the Service's reputation.

I have no inside knowledge, but like others, I see a pattern beginning to develop.  I see the recently announced censure of a number of senior officers who once comprised the core leadership of a battlegroup.  I think about the number of battlegroups who did exactly what they did, at least operationally, and that is to pass through the 7th Fleet AOR with various port visits and logistics events.  I think about what was on the minds of those leaders as they pressed forward into demanding operational scenarios, and I think about what was likely NOT on their minds.  Putting aside what may eventually be revealed as obvious moral, ethical, or criminal lapses, these officers are very likely to have simply gotten into their places in a well-oiled assembly line of graft, influence and payoff, thinking that there cannot be anything (or much) wrong with what is going on, because this is what every group coming through does.  I'll bet you a dollar that when all is said and done, there will be a number of post-deployment messages or port visit reports that unabashedly discuss the largess provided by Mr. Leonard in glowing terms, largely because the reporter had no clue that what was provided wasn't de rigueur.  The point is that THE SYSTEM, the network, that these officers relied upon to shuffle them through this unfamiliar environment, was rotten to the core--but the officers existing within it had little against which to compare.

In both situations--the COLE and the emerging Fat Leonard scheme--good, honest, hardworking officers prepared their units for extended operations forward and then inserted themselves into a network over which they had little or no control.  Much remains to come of the Fat Leonard scandal, and it is likely that we will have news of situations in which officers very much participated in activities they knew to be wrong--ethically or legally.  They should be punished to the full extent of  regulation and the law.  But I thought it worthwhile to share at least one view that might give additional context to those who look in on this situation and believe that there is something inherently wrong with the ethics of senior naval officers.  Fat Leonard succeeded for so long because he bought the right people in the network and because his targets were under-informed.

There is risk associated with operating one's fleet forward.  More than one kind of risk as this strained comparison I hope demonstrates.  But common among these risks is the effectiveness of the support network forward and the degree to which its conclusions can be trusted by individual unit commanders.

Bryan McGrath

Thursday, February 12, 2024

Display Ship Barry to be Scrapped



Ex-USS Barry, July 2010 (Author's Photo)

I’m always saddened when a former warship is sent to the scrapyard. I fully understand and accept that this is the most practical way for most of them to meet their ends after decommissioning, but when you have spent a formative portion of your life crewing warships you become sentimental. Worse still is a case in which the former warship up for disposal is a museum ship. Unfortunately, this will be the exact fate of the ex-USS Barry (DD-933), which for the past three decades greeted visitors to (but was not operated by) the National Museum of the U.S. Navy at the Washington Navy Yard.
While the final straw for the Barry was the forthcoming construction of a fixed-span replacement for the Frederick Douglass bridge over the Anacostia River, truth be told the destroyer’s material condition was rough. I visited her several times over the past decade, and she was hurting pretty badly in several places topside. Considering she's gone 30 years without a drydocking, I can only imagine the issues she might have below the waterline. Thankfully, Barry isn’t the last of the Forrest-Shermans still afloat as museums; the Edson (DD-946) and Turner Joy (DD-951) will continue to represent the class.
The Navy primarily used the Barry for hosting official ceremonies for Navy Yard-based commands. Her role as a museum was secondary by default. Although she contained a small exhibit about the surface Navy, there really wasn’t much effort made to interpret her compartments or systems beyond a few succinct placards. Nor was much effort made to interpret the daily lives and routines of her crewmembers, let alone the Cold War era in which they served. There was no effort at all to interpret her operational history beyond a brochure handed out on the quarterdeck (sometimes).
All this was most unfortunate. A former warship-turned-museum is more than a tourist site. It is an ambassador for its nation's navy. It is a tool for recruitment, whether into the uniformed ranks or into the technical or policy worlds that support the service. It provides an opportunity to connect with citizens who want to learn more about their nation’s navy—and who might be inclined to support it via the political process. It doesn’t practically matter that the overwhelming majority of museum ships in the U.S. are maintained by private organizations and not the Navy; the inherent roles and potential opportunities I’ve just listed apply to them as well.
For me, then, the tragedy of the Barry is less that her physical location became untenable and her continued maintenance unaffordable. Rather, it’s that she represents a lost opportunity for the Navy to converse with the legions of Americans who visit our nation’s capital each year. Why was that opportunity important? Well, navalists such as myself decry the sea-blindedness of our fellow citizens, with a case in point being the Navy’s ranking as the least prestigious and least important of the four services in a 2014 Gallup poll. Neither the Navy nor those of us who support it appear to be making much headway addressing that. Quoting statistics about how much global commerce moves by sea, or how much our economy depends on that commerce, isn’t moving the needle. Neither are unserious movies and TV shows out of Hollywood, as CDR Mark Seip observed this week in his excellent Defense News opinion piece. Navy portcalls along our coasts and accessible rivers can help greatly, but in the present budgetary environment it seems that they are growing less frequent—and there are only so many people who will have the time and opportunity to visit over handfuls of days. The post-9/11 security environment hasn’t made that any easier.
Therefore, it seems to me that the millions of Americans who visit museum warships each year are an eager and untapped audience for the Navy. They're making the effort to come to us in order to get to know us better, and the least we can do is meet them halfway. We need all the advocates we can get.
I’ve been thinking about these roles for museum ships for some time now, but I regret that it took the loss of the Barry to prompt me to commit them to words. Needless to say, I'll be writing more on these themes in the coming months.

The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and are presented in his personal capacity. They do not reflect the official positions of Systems Planning and Analysis, and to the author’s knowledge do not reflect the policies or positions of the U.S. Department of Defense, any U.S. armed service, or any other U.S. Government agency.

Wednesday, February 11, 2024

Around Chinese shipyards

Recently, there was an overhead shot of the JiangNan shipyard showing all of the activity going on. From that picture, it became apparent that there were 2 new Type 726 LCAC that were under construction that we were previously unaware of. With that in mind, the following is a best effort attempt to show the building activities around the major naval shipbuilding yards.

First start off with JiangNan shipyard, which is known for building most of PLAN's destroyers and some MCM ships and diesel submarines.
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The recent overhead photos shows 5 launched 052C/D around the ship. No. 151 has returned to the shipyard for maintenance and is currently parked next to No. 153, which has yet to be commissioned. It looks like the latter is ready to be commissioned any day now. Amongst the 052D, another one has just went on sea trials leaving 3 052Ds that are launched still in shipyard. At current time, there is one 052D that joined service last year with 2 other ones in sea trials. A 4th 052D looks to be ready for sea trials soon and the remaining 2 are probably 6 month to a year away from being ready for sea trial. There is at least 2 more 052Ds that are scheduled to be built at this shipyard. Works for 052D series has also started at Dalian shipyard, but the production there is limited compared to JN shipyard. The other notable ship is the 2nd 12000 ton cutter. This one is given the number Haijing-3901 (first one had Haijing-2901). Based on prior reports, only these 2 units should be built for this class of coast guard ships. They should be the 2 largest cutters in service with the Chinese Coast Guard. Now that the numerous civilian ministries have joined coast guard, many of the cutters are getting armed with naval guns (some even with 76 mm). I still have yet to see such gun on the 12000 ton, so it would be interesting to see if it will be armed. Finally, 2 new Type 726 LCAC appears to be under construction at JN shipyard. So far, 3 have been built for Type 071 LPDs. Since each LPD can fit 4 of them, I think more Type 726s are expected for the future. However, there are currently only gaps in PLAN's numbering system for 2 more Type 726s (3323 and 3324), so I wonder what kind of plans they have for this series. With the induction of Zubr hovercraft, they do not need Type 726 for solo missions to nearby islands. Do they intend to fit more Type 726s into Type 071's well deck in the future or do they intend to use it to hold amphibious vehicles? That could tell us about how PLA conducts amphibious assaults in the future.

Secondly, HuDong shipyard is as busy as it usually is. There are currently 3 larger ships launched and parked at the shipyard. One of which is the 4th Type 071 and the 2 others are both Type 815A AGI ship. Interestingly enough, there was a 3rd Type 815A which recently just departed the shipyard and entered NSF with pennant number 854. The first 2 Type 815s (one of which is Type 815A) both entered service with ESF. Given the overwhelming presence of JMSDF and USN nearby, it makes sense for these ships to first join ESF and NSF. It would be interesting to see if SSF will get any of the two that are under construction. The ships themselves are large enough to go past the immediate South China Sea area for longer ranged missions. I have already talked about Type 071 project in previous posts, so I will leave it alone here. The smaller surface combatants consist of 2 Type 054A(10th and 11th from HD) and 2 Type 056 (6th and 7th from HD), One of the 054As look ready to join service soon and the other one was just launched recently. One of the Type 056 should be going on sea trials soon if it has not already. There are definitely more 056 to be built here, but not sure if that applies to Type 054A. Finally, there are also 2 C28A frigates for the Algerian navy that are parked closely to the 2 Type 056s. The second one was just launched this past week and the modules for the 3rd one can also be seen. These 2800 ton ships are the largest export ships that the Chinese shipyards are currently building. Most of the export surface ships have been OPVs, FACs and smaller patrol boats. Since HD shipyard builds mostly frigates and larger ships, the next export contract it will likely work on is when Pakistan orders a follow-on to the F-22P series. At this point, I don't believe China has received any export orders based on Type 054A, which is a real shame considering how well it has served the Chinese Navy.

Next up, HuangPu shipyard also has a lot of activities for both naval and coast guard ships. It currently has 2 Type 056s (6th and 7th from HP) and 1 Type 054A (10th) parked outside. The 11th Type 054A is still in the construction hall and a few months away from launching. As usual, HP shipyard is swamped with ships for coast guard and other civilian ministries. In the past year, HP shipyard has built 1500, 3000 and 4000 ton cutters for different ministries. Even though they all fall under coast guard now, the cutters are still needed for the pre-merger ministries like CMS, FLEC and Customs. As mentioned earlier, one of the notable things is that these newer cutters now come with naval guns. HP and WC shipyard have both gotten similar orders for Type 056 and cutters, but HP have generally been building them much quicker. I think this just reflects the reality of Chinese shipbuilding industry where shipyards around Shanghai and Guangzhou simply are higher quality than the ones up north and further inland.

Right beside HuangPu shipyard is the GSI shipyard. Currently, there is one Type 904A and one Type 903A parked outside with a second Type 904A under construction. Another Type 903A AOR just went on sea trials a few days ago and these are the 5th and 6th ships of this class. Type 903/A AORs have been instrumental in all of China's recent Gulf of Aden flotillas and other blue water missions. Aside from the UNREP ships, each Type 903A also have hangar and helipad for one Z-8 helicopter for re-supplying other ships. The 2 new Type 904A with probably join No. 888 in supplying the islands of South China Sea. It is possible these ships are replacing No. 883 and 884 which are serving the same role. It is also possible that more are needed due to China's many reef reclamation and building projects down there.

Going further inland, we have the WC shipyard which has one launched Type 056 and another Type 072A LST, but also many export ships. Most recently, F91, which is the first P18N, was delivered to Nigeria. F92, the second P18N, is launched at WC shipyard and will also be delivered this year according to Nigerian Navy. The P18N OPVs are probably designed based on Type 056 class, but is slightly longer and displaces more at 1800 ton. They only cost $42 million each, so are not as heavily armed as Type 056s and also have lower speed requirement. We also heard recently that Argentina has agreed to buy 5 OPVs from China similar to P18N class with 2 built in China and 3 more in Argentina. Each ship is said to cost $50 million, so will probably be similar to Nigeria in armament. They will most likely be built at WC shipyard. WC shipyard also has launched 2 Type 056s for Bangladesh Navy numbered F111 and F112. Based on the recent photos, they look to have similar armament to the Chinese ones. More of these Type 056s will likely be built in Bangladesh. There are also discussions for exporting Type 056 to Pakistan and Kazakhstan, which may increase WC shipyard's export portofolio.

Aside from these more active ones, Dalian is building Type 052D right now and will likely also get orders for Type 055 program, but was previously mostly working on CV-16. From recent Google Earth photos, there looks to be no new submarines launched outside of Huludao shipyard. That could mean PLAN is evaluating the acoustic performance of the launched ones from 2013 GE photos, since they also don't appear to be at the nuclear sub naval bases. This wraps up the activities at the major shipyards. The smaller ones are tasked of building Type 056 (in the case of LiaoNan), patrol boats and cutters (in the case of Guijiang). They are harder to track due to lack of interest, but we do get photos of export versions of FACs and patrol boats. It's quite apparent that China is getting a lot more of these export contracts for building patrol boats, FACs, OPVs and frigates. Unlike 5 years ago, they are now beating out European and Russian competitions for export contracts. China has unveiled more advanced export designs the last couple of years. The next step up for them would be to win more lucrative contracts in submarines, large amphbious docking ships and 4000+ ton warships.

AEI/Heritage Project for the Common Defense Weekly Read Board

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